The Krueger Effect

[darksabre]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So is it the players no longer using those tactics that they appeared to be implementing so well early in the season, or is it the opponents being better able to challenge and counter those tactics?

I assume it's the latter. Our forwards just look outmatched in most areas of the ice.

[Taro T]

21 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

When they had success their d-zone gaps were tight and they challenged at the blue line.  They've gotten away from that already, looking like they're on the PK in the d-zone when they don't have possession.    Old habits die hard I suppose.

And when they had success they were advancing up ice as a (4 to) 5 man unit using a lot of short passes and continuing to pass in the offensive zone (and not like the overpassing recently of the Eichel line).

They've gotten to a point where they are headmanning the puck up to an isolated winger that really has no option but the dump in.  Which has resulted in easier clears for the opponents.

But, the good news is they start getting some easier opponents which shouldn't be as effective at taking the short passes away and they'll have had a few more practices to try to work back to what was working earlier.

[darksabre]

I don't know if it's possible to emphasize enough just how bad our forward group is right now at generating any kind of offense, but Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville could make the middle six better right now. Two old guys who don't even have teams.

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I don't know if it's possible to emphasize enough just how bad our forward group is right now at generating any kind of offense, but Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville could make the middle six better right now. Two old guys who don't even have teams.

Agree with the point you are making, but not with Vanek or Pommers. Those guys would just be more of the same.

We need the 26-year-old version of one of those guys.

[triumph_communes]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So is it the players no longer using those tactics that they appeared to be implementing so well early in the season, or is it the opponents being better able to challenge and counter those tactics?

Teams having been clogging up the middle of the ice in the defensive zone more, but that doesn't mean the players should just give-up.  And halfway through the game the defenders then relax, but the forwards are still in a perimeter mindset and don't take advantage of it.  From my perspective, it's more on the Sabres and less on other team's adjustments.

 

Lot's of bad habits through the tanks years to break.  Krueger has a tough time ahead of them.  The young captain fell on deaf teammate's ears last year.  Will it come through now?  I saw a completely different offensive game out of them in the second Lightning game, so I have hope still.

[darksabre]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Agree with the point you are making, but not with Vanek or Pommers. Those guys would just be more of the same.

We need the 26-year-old version of one of those guys.

I wish we could get a guy in here like Dainus Zubrus.

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I wish we could get a guy in here like Dainus Zubrus.

Yes, the last thing I want is another Sheary type.

Get somebody sturdy and defensively responsible, who can create havoc in front and has the hands to finish

[darksabre]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yes, the last thing I want is another Sheary type.

Get somebody sturdy and defensively responsible, who can create havoc in front and has the hands to finish

Sheary, Mitts, Girgs, Larry, Vesey, Rodrigues, are all expendable in the quest for someone defensively responsible who has 30-40 point potential. Especially since they're all various forms of Free Agent at the end of the year.

And then we need another good scoring winger on top of that.

[...]

If the tactics did not survive past October, then that's totally on the coaches.  If the team can't maintain the tactics, then that draws Botterill (back) into the equation.

I would be disappointed if RK thought the league wouldn't catch on quickly to what he had the team doing.  I am disappointed that he doesn't seem to have an answer, yet, regardless.

 

[jsb]

33 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yes, the last thing I want is another Sheary type.

Get somebody sturdy and defensively responsible, who can create havoc in front and has the hands to finish

 

25 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Sheary, Mitts, Girgs, Larry, Vesey, Rodrigues, are all expendable in the quest for someone defensively responsible who has 30-40 point potential. Especially since they're all various forms of Free Agent at the end of the year.

And then we need another good scoring winger on top of that.

It's bad enough around here with the usual suspects jumping off the cliff when we've barely played a 1/5 of the season but when you guys do it, GFW, is there no hope at all??

 

???

Edited November 12, 2019 by jsb

[darksabre]

2 minutes ago, jsb said:

 

It's bad enough around here with the usual suspects jumping off the cliff when we've barely played a 1/5 of the season but when you guys do it, GFW, is there no hope at all??

 

???

I wouldn't describe us as having jumped off a cliff. More just that we've seen enough of a number of these guys to know who they are and what their value is to this team right now. I don't think the roster is tenable anymore, it needs to be fixed.

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, jsb said:

 

It's bad enough around here with the usual suspects jumping off the cliff when we've barely played a 1/5 of the season but when you guys do it, GFW, is there no hope at all??

 

???

Sheary’s not sturdy enough, Sobotka talented enough and Vesey productive enough to have all three as middle-sixers.

I prefer to think of it as a cogent reading of what this roster needs after watching 1/5 of the season. 

(Your mileage may vary ?)

Edited November 12, 2019 by dudacek

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

So is it the players no longer using those tactics that they appeared to be implementing so well early in the season, or is it the opponents being better able to challenge and counter those tactics?

It's just lazy hockey.... you lose possession and suddenly everybody stops moving their feet, watch for it next game.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, darksabre said:

Sheary, Mitts, Girgs, Larry, Vesey, Rodrigues, are all expendable in the quest for someone defensively responsible who has 30-40 point potential. Especially since they're all various forms of Free Agent at the end of the year.

And then we need another good scoring winger on top of that.

I think there's a flaw in that train of thought. Would said player put up 30-40pts playing on a line with the remaining players? We might need to get rid of more than just one.

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

So is it the players no longer using those tactics that they appeared to be implementing so well early in the season, or is it the opponents being better able to challenge and counter those tactics?

When considering the earlier portion of the season, the Sabres were only really strong analytically for the first two games of our "good stretch". Things started to fall off quite significantly after that, when looking at the macro. There was the odd game/period where things rebounded, but by and large the wins that came after the first 2 games were more similar to the wins we saw during the streak than those we saw during those first 2 games. So far, those first two games are still the anomaly, and the much smaller sample size. 

It's still talent, roster construction. We do, however, have the raw talent to win games if the PP is on fire. And of course, still plenty of runway for the team to improve, it's just not easy to imagine significant improvement without a bit of roster augmentation. 

The puck luck could change a bit, the PP could heat up again, additional chemistry could develop among the lines...it's possible we get better without a move, but again it seems difficult without, when a 2/3rds completed, at best, top 6 is still staring us in the face. 

Edited November 13, 2019 by Thorny

[dudacek]

4 hours ago, darksabre said:

I wish we could get a guy in here like Dainus Zubrus.

You know who would be ideal? A 26-year-old Kyle Okposo.

It’s too bad we never got the player we hoped we were signing, but I wonder what he might give us in Sobotka’s slot?

Not ideal, certainly, but given the cards we currently hold, I wonder if he might spark something?

Erod can play with Larry and Z.

[darksabre]

Just now, dudacek said:

You know who would be ideal? A 26-year-old Kyle Okposo.

It’s too bad we never got the player we hoped we were signing, but I wonder what he might give us in Sobotka’s slot?

Not ideal, certainly, but given the cards we currently hold, I wonder if he might spark something?

Erod can play with Larry and Z.

I'd like a player on that side that we can switch with Kyle depending on the game. I don't think he belongs in that slot full time, but I'd like the flexibility. 

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I'd like a player on that side that we can switch with Kyle depending on the game. I don't think he belongs in that slot full time, but I'd like the flexibility. 

Maybe if it was a 26 year old KO like dudacek said. I don't think we are aiming high enough if the top 6 guy we bring in fits in fine on the checking line. We need a real, consistent, scorer.

[Ogre]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

It's just lazy hockey.... you lose possession and suddenly everybody stops moving their feet, watch for it next game.

Yep. Then they start poking at the puck and stop taking the man. Take the guy off the puck then he’s out the play and you have the puck. Take the puck from the guy and he can just take it right back.

[darksabre]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Maybe if it was a 26 year old KO like dudacek said. I don't think we are aiming high enough if the top 6 guy we bring in fits in fine on the checking line. We need a real, consistent, scorer.

Someone who fits in on a checking line doesn't have to not be a goal scorer... 

I think some people are dreaming big about what is possible right now. I think a 15-20 goal guy is the best they could do given their cap situation. If they can add two of that type of player it would make a huge difference. But I don't think we're getting a 30 goal guy from anyone. 

[Thorner]

8 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Someone who fits in on a checking line doesn't have to not be a goal scorer... 

I think some people are dreaming big about what is possible right now. I think a 15-20 goal guy is the best they could do given their cap situation. If they can add two of that type of player it would make a huge difference. But I don't think we're getting a 30 goal guy from anyone. 

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/sabres

We have around 5 mil to play with right now because of LTIR, according to this, plus whatever space by moving out a player. If we move out Risto, we've got 10 mil to work with. 

There is zero chance I'm comfortable with a 15-20 goal guy brought in by Botterill being enough. That's what Vesey supposedly is. Adding another Vesey and Sheary couple to this team isn't going to move the needle. We don't need depth. We need top 6 talent. 

Edited November 13, 2019 by Thorny

[Pimlach]

4 hours ago, darksabre said:

I don't know if it's possible to emphasize enough just how bad our forward group is right now at generating any kind of offense, but Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville could make the middle six better right now. Two old guys who don't even have teams.

It’s really time to move on from Vanek and Pommer.  That was another day.  

[darksabre]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/sabres

We have around 5 mil to play with right now because of LTIR, according to this, plus whatever space by moving out a player. If we move out Risto, we've got 10 mil to work with. 

There is zero chance I'm comfortable with a 15-20 goal guy brought in by Botterill being enough. That's what Vesey supposedly is. 

My concern with the cap is that Bogo ends up being healthy enough to return from LTIR and ruins our cap. I think whatever happens is going to be cash in cash out. That LTIR relief is not a long term solution.

3 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

It’s really time to move on from Vanek and Pommer.  That was another day.  

Thank you for missing the point.

[Pimlach]

8 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Someone who fits in on a checking line doesn't have to not be a goal scorer... 

I think some people are dreaming big about what is possible right now. I think a 15-20 goal guy is the best they could do given their cap situation. If they can add two of that type of player it would make a huge difference. But I don't think we're getting a 30 goal guy from anyone. 

You just don’t know sometimes.  Vessey was a 15 goal scorer and look at his game with us.  

[Thorner]

22 minutes ago, darksabre said:

My concern with the cap is that Bogo ends up being healthy enough to return from LTIR and ruins our cap. I think whatever happens is going to be cash in cash out. That LTIR relief is not a long term solution.

Thank you for missing the point.

This is exactly what I was talking about weeks ago when I was saying Botterill's cap management has only been "adequate" thus far. He's supposed to be a cap whiz. He should find a way to either find a spot for Bogo should that situation arise, or clear, what, the ~2 mil in space necessary to allow for a 7 mil (Risto gone) buffer. 7 mil is enough to bring in a bonafide talent. 

If we are sitting here with not only a dearth of top 6 talent, a roster so in need of an upgrade yet STILL somehow up against the cap such that no move can be made, what are we even doing here? We are lacking talent yet somehow still a cap team. Come on. 

This is also why I never bought the, oh well, it was only a 3rd we gave up for Vesey. How much does he make? We need that cap space now. 

Botterill not augmenting the top 6 substantially in the offseason, yet also still re-signing EVERYONE from last year's bad team (save poor Pominville) so as to not even allow an upgrade to be made, is just unacceptable. I'm not saying this is necessarily what happened, this is why I am choosing to believe he thinks he has fluidity with how he manages this cap wise. 

Edited November 13, 2019 by Thorny