The Krueger Effect

[triumph_communes]

19 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Try actually facing the travel of BEING a west cost team. 

It's certainly a reasonably heavy schedule but I wouldn't call it crazy, at least to start a season. West cost teams in particular face difficult schedules like this fairly often. Leafs just did 13 in the same nights. Most of the teams they've played more than in the month, it's by a single game. 

It goes without saying I'm quite happy with their record in the month, given the reasonably difficult yet not insane schedule. 

It’s teams like Chicago in the middle who play the west coast teams a lot who travel the most. 

[Curt]

45 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

It’s teams like Chicago in the middle who play the west coast teams a lot who travel the most. 

Winnipeg and Minnesota also are in same boat.

[triumph_communes]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Winnipeg and Minnesota also are in same boat.

And St Louis

[dudacek]

Here’s why I think even Callaway will survive the ups and downs of this season:

“Being a head coach in the National Hockey League, in this profession, nothing is tougher than that. A lot of people dream about doing it, but actually when you’re in it, there’s nothing free here at all, zero. You have to earn every single minute of every single day. To push this team against the competition we have in the parity of the National Hockey League, it’s the challenge that’s tough. And it’ll never go away. It’ll never be easy. There won’t be an easy day here. But it’s a toughness that I feed on. It gives me energy and, I know I’ve used this twice now, but I told you I know I’m alive, and you really know you’re alive in this role. You can’t have fear going into it. You have to have respect for the challenge, not fear. It was never really fear. It was more just a respect. And that respect you should never lose and you can never lose or this league will just eat you up.”

-Ralph, from a great Q&A in the Athletic

https://theathletic.com/1357079/2019/11/07/i-do-have-a-different-perception-ralph-krueger-on-how-his-unique-trajectory-and-mindset-led-him-to-buffalo/

[...]

That's a great quote. I hope it bears fruit.

[PerreaultForever]

"the Krueger effect" seems to be fading.

[jad1]

11 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

"the Krueger effect" seems to be fading.

It's being countered by the 'no talent' effect on the top lines.

[dudacek]

The real challenge for Krueger comes now.

Last year the Sabres played a lot of decent games in December where they lost. They couldn’t cope mentally and stopped doing what they had been doing, with Ristolainen and the goalies being the most obviously affected.

The result was a 74-point season instead of the 90 points their start set them up for.

This is an average hockey team that will lose games on talent (like today) and on bounces (like the Islanders) Krueger’s job is to make sure they persevere; continue to stick with the program and not lose games on structure, focus and effort like they did last year.

It might be the difference between another 74 points or 90. 

Even better, if the bounces go our way more than the way of Pittsburgh, or Florida, it might be the difference for a playoff spot.

[Randall Flagg]

42 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

"the Krueger effect" seems to be fading.

If it's there, it won't have even begun yet, like dudacek outlines. It will be proven by a good stretch of hockey emerging from the ashes of a bad one, and lasting longer than it. And then, when the next bad stretch comes in January, doing the same thing again. And then, during the exhaustion of the stretch run in March, it will be proven by the team bearing down and finishing the season strong. 

The Krueger effect hasn't had an opportunity to show itself yet.
 

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

If it's there, it won't have even begun yet, like dudacek outlines. It will be proven by a good stretch of hockey emerging from the ashes of a bad one, and lasting longer than it. And then, when the next bad stretch comes in January, doing the same thing again. And then, during the exhaustion of the stretch run in March, it will be proven by the team bearing down and finishing the season strong. 

The Krueger effect hasn't had an opportunity to show itself yet.
 

Exactly.

who in their right mind believes a team, a month into a season will be the same team in March/April?

RK has shown me in the short time here, he’s a better coach on different levels, than Housley was. And the staff overall is better as well. A season is filled with peaks and valleys. Currently we are in a valley. I’m not the least bit worried. But I do enjoy reading the angry and worried posts filled with definitive statements. 

?

 

I just wish we had one or two “take the game over” types. Even Eichel isn’t that. Yet.

[LGR4GM]

I'd be less worried if I wasn't watching advance stats tank along with our production. 

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

If it's there, it won't have even begun yet, like dudacek outlines. It will be proven by a good stretch of hockey emerging from the ashes of a bad one, and lasting longer than it. And then, when the next bad stretch comes in January, doing the same thing again. And then, during the exhaustion of the stretch run in March, it will be proven by the team bearing down and finishing the season strong. 

The Krueger effect hasn't had an opportunity to show itself yet.
 

maybe, but you could also argue that this was that moment for it to take effect. We just finished a bad stretch losing most and playing pretty poorly. This trip was a turnaround moment. Might still be. Not sure how bad or how long of a bad stretch you need for what you're saying to show itself.  

[Pimlach]

Glad to read you guys are optimistic on RK.  So am I. 

It takes time, and talent, to turn this around.  No miracles like what happened in St Louis last year - finding a goalie and a coach all at once and having the rest of the pieces in place.  

For the sake of the fan base I just want to be in the running for the 8th spot in March.  

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

maybe, but you could also argue that this was that moment for it to take effect. We just finished a bad stretch losing most and playing pretty poorly. This trip was a turnaround moment. Might still be. Not sure how bad or how long of a bad stretch you need for what you're saying to show itself.  

It's not something concretely defined. That moment could be 3 weeks from now. For the Blues last year it wasn't until January, and they rode that to a cup. 

 

We could have five more weeks of garbage, AND a successful season come spring time.

Edited November 9, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[PerreaultForever]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

It's not something concretely defined. That moment could be 3 weeks from now. For the Blues last year it wasn't until January, and they rode that to a cup. 

 

We could have five more weeks of garbage, AND a successful season come spring time.

Very optimistic. 

Everybody points to St. Louis and their slow start. Thing there was they got a new coach who had a style that fit their roster, they also got a hot goalie and they figured out how to make ROR happy by making him the centerpiece. Lots came together in one moment.

Krueger might still have some sort of magic somewhere (I hope) but I'm not sure this team has the mindset to recover from any extended losing streak given the history. 

[Curt]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

The real challenge for Krueger comes now.

Last year the Sabres played a lot of decent games in December where they lost. They couldn’t cope mentally and stopped doing what they had been doing, with Ristolainen and the goalies being the most obviously affected.

The result was a 74-point season instead of the 90 points their start set them up for.

This is an average hockey team that will lose games on talent (like today) and on bounces (like the Islanders) Krueger’s job is to make sure they persevere; continue to stick with the program and not lose games on structure, focus and effort like they did last year.

It might be the difference between another 74 points or 90. 

Even better, if the bounces go our way more than the way of Pittsburgh, or Florida, it might be the difference for a playoff spot.

I think this is a spot on assessment 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd be less worried if I wasn't watching advance stats tank along with our production. 

Yeah, they aren’t playing that well recently.  I think the question is can Krueger get them to turn it around, and playing better, sooner rather than later?

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

Yeah, they aren’t playing that well recently.  I think the question is can Krueger get them to turn it around, and playing better, sooner rather than later?

Yeah, they aren't playing that we'll.  But they aren't playing that bad either.

They still need an upgrade in the top 6.  (Which was evident 4 months ago, minimum.). Maybe Sobotka's injury gets Botterill to finally pull the trigger on that deal seeing that not only D-men get injured but sometimes forwards and goalies also get injured so hanging o to 10 NHL D might leave some other slots a bit fragile.

[Doohicksie]

On 10/30/2019 at 6:52 PM, triumph_communes said:

It’s teams like Chicago in the middle who play the west coast teams a lot who travel the most. 

When I lived in Detroit, the Red Wings were a Western Conference team but Detroit is in the Eastern Time Zone.  Their travel, with the number of time zones crossed, was pretty nasty.

[Doohicksie]

On 11/8/2019 at 8:49 PM, PerreaultForever said:

Everybody points to St. Louis and their slow start. Thing there was they got a new coach who had a style that fit their roster, they also got a hot goalie and they figured out how to make ROR happy by making him the centerpiece. Lots came together in one moment.

A trade and/or injury followed by promotion of the right player or two from Rochester could be a similar catalyst.  Still, I doubt the Sabres would have as strong as a second half as St. Louis did last year; that was an extreme outlier.

[triumph_communes]

Despite the score, there was a huge improvement in their playstyle from the first Lightning game to the second game last weekend.  They reverted to perimeter play, then remembered to bring plays to the net.

 

Problem was their playstyle for the first day after having so much time to practice.

Powerplay fell apart and so did our scoring.  GLO line stopped being dangerous.  Line tweaks seem to help, but I think it's obvious we lack talent on forward.  Some of our defenseman are also too weak to play the man.

 

Hope we see some more line-tweaking going forward.  Skinner really should be with Eichel.  Reinhart and Eichel need to be separated.  Oloffson may be a PP specialist, but only deserves 3rd line minutes outside of that.  I like Mittelstadt on 2LW.

[pi2000]

When they had success their d-zone gaps were tight and they challenged at the blue line.  They've gotten away from that already, looking like they're on the PK in the d-zone when they don't have possession.    Old habits die hard I suppose.

[darksabre]

3 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

When they had success their d-zone gaps were tight and they challenged at the blue line.  They've gotten away from that already, looking like they're on the PK in the d-zone when they don't have possession.    Old habits die hard I suppose.

It's definitely a symptom of the forwards failing to maintain possession or slow opponent's breakouts. D can be more aggressive stepping up if the forwards are getting back up ice, but I think that's not happening which is forcing the D to play conservative. It's a feedback loop. 

[...]

19 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

When they had success their d-zone gaps were tight and they challenged at the blue line.  They've gotten away from that already, looking like they're on the PK in the d-zone when they don't have possession.    Old habits die hard I suppose.

Was just talking to a colleague about this, and the "old habits" phrase came up.  Their entries are back to the status-quo as well, which means a lot more dump-ins.  Looking for the number, I ran across this article that talks about exits and entries and how those relate to the Sabres:

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2019/11/6/20950561/transition-fuels-the-buffalo-sabres-even-strength-offense-dahlin-miller-montour-ristolainen

So, whatever RK had them doing at the very beginning, he has allowed them to get away from over the past several weeks.  

Edited November 12, 2019 by ...

[dudacek]

So is it the players no longer using those tactics that they appeared to be implementing so well early in the season, or is it the opponents being better able to challenge and counter those tactics?