Fancy stat guys - should I be excited yet??

[Curt]

17 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, it all depends on the trade that's available, innit?

Didn’t say anything about a trade.  Could be as simple as reshuffled lines that place a different player in Sobotkas spot.  Even if a trade happens, there is no guarantee that the incoming player swaps in for Sobotka.

[WildCard]

9 hours ago, erickompositör72 said:

First of all, apparently he has the most hits of any forward on the team. His line is winning their match-ups, according to what others have posted. Ralph may not be asking him to put up points. Their line is working.

Thank you for asking a question that gets to the crux of the issue.

Yes, if they start losing, and it's clear the 2nd line is part of the problem, "upgrade" away. However, I'd even suggest that if they start losing, but the second line is playing really well- mess with the other lines first.

We're not in that situation. The 2nd line is actually playing well.

So yeah, basically you don't want to touch anything because it's 'working' as the overall result of the team, even if it could improve a specific area of it

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, WildCard said:

So yeah, basically you don't want to touch anything because it's 'working' as the overall result of the team, even if it could improve a specific area of it

Sometimes it just takes time to complete a roster turnover whether it be the whole roster or just one/few positions. Finding the right player(s) to fill a position has a lot of factors that come into play. Cap, players available, a trade partner, style of play, and so on. 

When the player is performing the role that he is asked to do, at least it buys you some time and doesn't make you desperate to make a move which inevitably could turn out not so good, not the real upgrade you hoped for. I honestly believe that Sobotka's play compared to last year has afforded us that leeway. If he was a clone of last year or worse, I think for sure JBot would have done something already, anything to try and improve.

Vlad not only bought himself time, he also bought us time. There may be no need for a trade of a player like Risto as we may have time to develop someone like Tage instead. If that happens then we can use other options to upgrade somewhere else. Vlad is a much easier player to replace from within possibly than say Johansson. Save the Risto or other player trades for a more extensive upgrade that may be needed down the road.

I think people are more in a wait and see phase in respect to the 2RW upgrade. Winning does that sort of thing and allows us to. Any action found that needs to be taken will determine the necessary speed in which it needs to be taken care of.

Everyone would love to see upgrades to assure that we maintain the level we are at or move to the next level. But do we really know just yet where those real improvements are needed. Some upgrades we probably do know where they will be but others may not be so obvious and others are futures in the pipeline such as 6K and Cozens. Some of these upgrades people are willing to wait for and are excited about, others not so much.

[erickompositör72]

1 hour ago, WildCard said:

So yeah, basically you don't want to touch anything because it's 'working' as the overall result of the team, even if it could improve a specific area of it

There is always a chance that the "better" player may not have the defensive awareness that Sobotka has. Not to say Sobotka is Selke-calibre, as you said, but maybe Ralph has brought something out of him, and it just gels with Jojo & Skinner. That's what seems to be happening. I don't think there's any proof that Sobotka is actually a "drag" on the line, point totals notwithstanding. I'd expect someone into fancy stats not to reference point totals (esp. after <10 games) as indicative of anything!

Again, this all could be wrong. The broader point is, we're winning, that line is winning match-ups, so talk of changing it is premature.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

5 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

There is always a chance that the "better" player may not have the defensive awareness that Sobotka has. Not to say Sobotka is Selke-calibre, as you said, but maybe Ralph has brought something out of him, and it just gels with Jojo & Skinner. That's what seems to be happening. I don't think there's any proof that Sobotka is actually a "drag" on the line, point totals notwithstanding. I'd expect someone into fancy stats not to reference point totals (esp. after <10 games) as indicative of anything!

Again, this all could be wrong. The broader point is, we're winning, that line is winning match-ups, so talk of changing it is premature.

This is the key. However, we can and should talk about it for future reference as to ideas that are available now and at a later time. You never know what might be available next week or next month or next year. You also don't want to rush things if you don't need to in case there's an injury. You may need Risto (or anyone else) for that purpose also. Winning and depth has afforded us a luxury we haven't seen in quite some time.

[That Aud Smell]

10 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

I don't think there's any proof that Sobotka is actually a "drag" on the line, point totals notwithstanding. I'd expect someone into fancy stats not to reference point totals (esp. after <10 games) as indicative of anything!

The sample size is still pretty limited, but his linemates are in the positive values when it comes to 5v5 Shot Attempt percentage differential, (MoJo is right around break even, while Skinner's more like ~3) and Sobotka's in that negative 6 range.

[...]

I'd prefer the team be proactive rather than reactive when it comes to improving the team's potential.  Any boob off the street can react to a negative trend that's been working for weeks or months.  The point of paying big bucks for a GM, his staff, and scouts, is to work on the roster even while the roster isn't self-imploding.  Actually, that's the ideal time to do it.

 

[Taro T]

On 10/22/2019 at 1:23 AM, PerreaultForever said:

This is exactly it. I did say if we could get a true power forward for that line I'd welcome it, BUT I'm not willing to mortgage the future for an instant upgrade or to create another weakness (presumably on D) by trading away a valuable piece. A better player than Sobotka isn't going to magically appear from the sky, you're going to have to give something up.  

Sobotka is definitely a placeholder (Cozens next year probably), but he's doing a good job right now that's all. Him and Vesey are both playing valuable roles in a system that is clearly structured around the idea of disciplined defensively responsible play.  

The more likely internal candidate to replace Sobotka on the 2nd line is Thompson (by next October at the latest).  Could see Cozens (at all of 19 to) starting out on that 3rd scoring line of Mittelstadt which will almost definitely get regular shifts all game next year.

Then a year or so later either Cozens or Mitts slides up onto that line causing either Thompson, Olofsson, or Johansson to slide into 3rd scoring line duty. 

This team looks really good a year out from now.  But with that said ...

20 hours ago, ... said:

I'd prefer the team be proactive rather than reactive when it comes to improving the team's potential.  Any boob off the street can react to a negative trend that's been working for weeks or months.  The point of paying big bucks for a GM, his staff, and scouts, is to work on the roster even while the roster isn't self-imploding.  Actually, that's the ideal time to do it.

 

Agree with this and if the top 6 upgrade trade becomes available, would like to see Botterill pull the trigger.  Though fully expect at this point that unless at least an Ehlers comes back, no move gets made nor really should it as there are a couple of offensive pieces available to step up next year and also at least one more defensively focused piece.  (As stated in other threads, not meaning to harp on it, that really believe this season's result isn't too important in Botterill's overall plan.  Next year is when he expects to see results, quite analogous to the way Beane 's run things on the other side of One Buffalo and that plan is 1 year further ahead than they Sabres IMHO.)

[LGR4GM]

I wonder if Jack is scoring more at home in part because Krueger can get him good matchups against lesser opponents. 

[darksabre]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I wonder if Jack is scoring more at home in part because Krueger can get him good matchups against lesser opponents. 

Probably a nice change of pace from Phil. 

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I wonder if Jack is scoring more at home in part because Krueger can get him good matchups against lesser opponents. 

Last night, it seemed to be a factor as Eichel's line wasn't facing the Couture line much (though the Hertl line is no slouch either).

But Eichel definite got the Barkov line and pretty sure they got Seguin and Hall also in those 2 games.  (Would have to look up who they matched up against the Habs, but it was probably that top line as well.)

He played well in Pittsburgh and his linemates got points (mainly on PP, but still).  He'll start to get points on the road when the opponent's top line stops having guys like Kopitar leading them that are really good at both ends. 

Am pretty well resigned to Eichel's line going toe for the against the other team's best all year.  (But REALLY don't want him out against the Bergeron line when possible though doubt Krueger has that same trepidation.)

[triumph_communes]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I wonder if Jack is scoring more at home in part because Krueger can get him good matchups against lesser opponents. 

Lines mostly seem to just roll 1-4, with the rotation resetting after special teams events, or Jack's line getting extra shifts at ends of periods.

[dudacek]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I wonder if Jack is scoring more at home in part because Krueger can get him good matchups against lesser opponents. 

He definitely switched from the Couture line to the Hertl line when Ralph had last change. I dont know if that’s to get him away from Couture, or to get him on Hertl, whose line was the best in San Jose. (And invisible last night)

It has certainly seemed that Ralph wants Jack head-to-head against the other team’s best. 

Krueger said that Jack has been facing the best and wanting that challenge.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I am not a fancy stat guy.  I am more of a no stat guy, except for the w - l stat line.

So, from my perspective … yes @Derrico, you can be excited now. 

[LGR4GM]

 

[WildCard]

So if I'm reading all of these right, apparently Philly will win the Cup

[GASabresIUFAN]

If I'm reading the chart right, the Sabres are actually good.

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If I'm reading the chart right, the Sabres are actually good.

The chart seems to suggest that they are pretty good - certainly much improved from last season. I think that those grey values indicate that the squad, on balance, is a bit of a "wash" on certain metrics (i.e., mediocre). @darksabre had it about right upthread in another recent thread, I think - they're better, playing better together, supporting the puck, but need more from their 5v5 game.

Edited October 24, 2019 by That Aud Smell

[Curt]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If I'm reading the chart right, the Sabres are actually good.

Chart says that Sabres are just slightly on the good side, but also have been extremely lucky.

[triumph_communes]

They are stats that barely correlate with anything predictive. 

[Curt]

1 minute ago, triumph_communes said:

They are stats that barely correlate with anything predictive. 

You mean the charts?  I thought that xG was very predictive.  Am I wrong about that?

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

They are stats that barely correlate with anything predictive. 

Which stats don't correlate?

[erickompositör72]

12 hours ago, Curt said:

Chart says that Sabres are just slightly on the good side, but also have been extremely lucky.

I think you're reading it incorrectly. It says they are more "good" than "lucky."

The further right is not more "lucky," it just illustrates how many goals they've scored. "Up" is good, "down" is lucky.

[That Aud Smell]

12 hours ago, Curt said:

Chart says that Sabres are just slightly on the good side, but also have been extremely lucky.

They've been somewhat lucky. But there's also a part of that "luck" that they have created -- with quality chances and sometimes keeping the other team's shots to the perimeter.

[dudacek]

According to #fancystats, if the Sabres continue to play like they did last night, the wins should pile up, right?