Fancy stat guys - should I be excited yet??

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

And there also might be a bit of a prevalent “tone” here that some criticisms should be beyond criticism.

I don’t think @PerreaultForever is saying Sobotka is beyond criticism, he’s saying he doesn’t think the criticism is warranted based on the season so far. I think Sobotka is a placeholder who will need to be upgraded if we want to compete with the big boys, based on what I saw from last year, but I can’t deny that the evidence so far this year supports his position more than mine.

I think @... has the right of it above in that the big picture matters most. It’s just that the picture is always changing. And every game we’re learning more about what the big picture actually is.

I certainly don't subscribe to this notion considering my opposition to some of the criticisms I've seen on Dahlin. I'm not really sure I'm seeing a lot of that. It's much less about criticizing what Sobotka is doing out there this season, and much more about what he's not. i.e. the will on the part of the poster to improve the position. 

[erickompositör72]

2 hours ago, WildCard said:

It's not an old tired narrative. Get the most out of him all you want but there is a clear deficiency on that line, and losing a position of surplus to fix one of weakness is a smart move. 

I feel like whenever people mention a move like this they think it's an attack on Krueger, or Botterill, or Risto. It's not. Sobotka simply is not a 2nd line player no matter how you slice it, and we can and should be aiming to be better there by using what assets we have available to us 

So far this season, he absolutely is a second line player. Will that continue? We'll see.

If Krueger can make Sobotka into a player as effective as a Hecht or a Gaustad, then he should stay on that line. It's just too early to tell if he will remain that effective.

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

So far this season, he absolutely is a second line player. Will that continue? We'll see.

If Krueger can make Sobotka into a player as effective as a Hecht or a Gaustad, then he should stay on that line. It's just too early to tell if he will remain that effective.

Poor Hecht he was way better than Gaustad. 

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Poor Hecht he was way better than Gaustad. 

And wouldn't he be the perfect foil to Skinner’s Briere?

Sobotka has never been as good as Jochen, and at 32 I don’t see any reason to think he will be.

[erickompositör72]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Poor Hecht he was way better than Gaustad. 

Sobotka is neither of them, but they were both effective cogs in a spectacular machine

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, erickompositör72 said:

Sobotka is neither of them, but they were both effective cogs in a spectacular machine

Right but you said "as" effective

My post was more about Hecht though, seemed like you were roughly equating the two, him and Gaustad, and I wanted to stick up for Jochen. 

Edited October 22, 2019 by Thorny

[WildCard]

15 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

So far this season, he absolutely is a second line player. Will that continue? We'll see.

If Krueger can make Sobotka into a player as effective as a Hecht or a Gaustad, then he should stay on that line. It's just too early to tell if he will remain that effective.

Just because he plays there doesn't mean he is one. Girgensons was an All Star and a 1C for a whole season 

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Just because he plays there doesn't mean he is one. Girgensons was an All Star and a 1C for a whole season 

I'm just calling Sobotka Mr. Intangibles from now on

[erickompositör72]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Right but you said "as" effective

My post was more about Hecht though, seemed like you were roughly equating the two, him and Gaustad, and I wanted to stick up for Jochen. 

I always preferred Hecht, as well, but debating the two is interesting. From what I remember, Gaustad was perhaps even more important in the locker room than on the ice. The energy he brought was something to behold... I remembering watching him jump off the bench right in front of me and skate with an intensity I've never seen before. Lots of intangibles he had.

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

I'm just calling Sobotka Mr. Intangibles from now on

 

Just now, erickompositör72 said:

I always preferred Hecht, as well, but debating the two is interesting. From what I remember, Gaustad was perhaps even more important in the locker room than on the ice. The energy he brought was something to behold... I remembering watching him jump off the bench right in front of me and skate with an intensity I've never seen before. Lots of intangibles he had.

✌️

[erickompositör72]

7 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Just because he plays there doesn't mean he is one. Girgensons was an All Star and a 1C for a whole season 

I wasn't referring to his spot in the lineup, I was referring to his effectiveness this season.

[WildCard]

13 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

I wasn't referring to his spot in the lineup, I was referring to his effectiveness this season.

Doesn't he have 1 point?

[Curt]

42 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

So far this season, he absolutely is a second line player. Will that continue? We'll see.

If Krueger can make Sobotka into a player as effective as a Hecht or a Gaustad, then he should stay on that line. It's just too early to tell if he will remain that effective.

Hecht=much better than Sobotka.

Gaustad=also never a 2nd line player

[erickompositör72]

22 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Doesn't he have 1 point?

I'm not sure if you're being facetious or you really don't get the point I'm making

18 minutes ago, Curt said:

Hecht=much better than Sobotka.

Gaustad=also never a 2nd line player

Which is why he often played on the top line

[WildCard]

1 hour ago, erickompositör72 said:

I'm not sure if you're being facetious or you really don't get the point I'm making

Which is why he often played on the top line

He's not a Selke candidate, he's not overtly physical or punishing, he doesn't add anything to that line that is overwhelmingly worth a 1 point output from him

[Curt]

A question for those who would be hesitant to make a lineup change “upgrading” from Sobotka on the 2nd line.

What would need to happen to change your mind?  What if Sabres lose 3 of 4 and the 2nd line goes scoreless in those games?  Then is it ok to change?

[Zamboni]

35 minutes ago, Curt said:

A question for those who would be hesitant to make a lineup change “upgrading” from Sobotka on the 2nd line.

What would need to happen to change your mind?  What if Sabres lose 3 of 4 and the 2nd line goes scoreless in those games?  Then is it ok to change?

Is there anyone who posts here, not willing to upgrade Sobotka if the opportunity presents itself no matter the record?

[erickompositör72]

56 minutes ago, WildCard said:

He's not a Selke candidate, he's not overtly physical or punishing, he doesn't add anything to that line that is overwhelmingly worth a 1 point output from him

First of all, apparently he has the most hits of any forward on the team. His line is winning their match-ups, according to what others have posted. Ralph may not be asking him to put up points. Their line is working.

50 minutes ago, Curt said:

A question for those who would be hesitant to make a lineup change “upgrading” from Sobotka on the 2nd line.

What would need to happen to change your mind?  What if Sabres lose 3 of 4 and the 2nd line goes scoreless in those games?  Then is it ok to change?

Thank you for asking a question that gets to the crux of the issue.

Yes, if they start losing, and it's clear the 2nd line is part of the problem, "upgrade" away. However, I'd even suggest that if they start losing, but the second line is playing really well- mess with the other lines first.

We're not in that situation. The 2nd line is actually playing well.

[dudacek]

I change the lines when the current lines start struggling.

Whether that’s one game or four, I’m not sure, and how depends on the nuance of the struggle.

I trade for a Sobotka upgrade as soon as someone is willing to trade us a real top six forward for an equal or lesser player or package of players not named Eichel or Dahlin.

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

And there also might be a bit of a prevalent “tone” here that some criticisms should be beyond criticism.

I don’t think @PerreaultForever is saying Sobotka is beyond criticism, he’s saying he doesn’t think the criticism is warranted based on the season so far. I think Sobotka is a placeholder who will need to be upgraded if we want to compete with the big boys, based on what I saw from last year, but I can’t deny that the evidence so far this year supports his position more than mine.

I think @... has the right of it above in that the big picture matters most. It’s just that the picture is always changing. And every game we’re learning more about what the big picture actually is.

This is exactly it. I did say if we could get a true power forward for that line I'd welcome it, BUT I'm not willing to mortgage the future for an instant upgrade or to create another weakness (presumably on D) by trading away a valuable piece. A better player than Sobotka isn't going to magically appear from the sky, you're going to have to give something up.  

Sobotka is definitely a placeholder (Cozens next year probably), but he's doing a good job right now that's all. Him and Vesey are both playing valuable roles in a system that is clearly structured around the idea of disciplined defensively responsible play.  

[That Aud Smell]

The Skinner line is fine. Sobotka is fine. Until their PDO starts to fall back towards 100. It’s right around 110 right now, which is pretty ridonk.

[Stoner]

56 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

The Skinner line is fine. Sobotka is fine. Until their PDO starts to fall back towards 100. It’s right around 110 right now, which is pretty ridonk.

Let me see if I understand PDO. When the Sabres stop scoring as much and their opponents start scoring more, the Sabres will start losing more? Also, like the winning streak last year, this is all an illlluuuuuuusion.

[That Aud Smell]

1 minute ago, PASabreFan said:

Let me see if I understand PDO. When the Sabres stop scoring as much and their opponents start scoring more, the Sabres will start losing more? Also, like the winning streak last year, this is all an illlluuuuuuusion.

Lots of #fancystats are complex concepts. PDO ain’t one of them. It’s SH% + SV% while you’re on the ice. Skinner’s line has something like .985 SV% and .15% SH% while on the ice. Really, really favourable numbers. They’re (probably?) not going to last.

All of which isn’t to say that they’re not playing well. They’re playing well. But their output is partly a function of good fortune, so far. And fortune is fickle. (Yet it also favours the bold (?!).)

[LTS]

So..

Are there better players than Sobotka? - Yes.

Are there better players than Sobotka for use with Skinner and Mojo? - Maybe

Do you replace Sobotka on that line when the team is 7-1-1 and playing at this level?  - No.

 

 

[That Aud Smell]

I'm gonna keep plunking Tierney's team shot rate charts in this thread. Sabres have crept into the good quadrant (after straddling the dull/good quadrant).

[nfreeman]

9 hours ago, Curt said:

A question for those who would be hesitant to make a lineup change “upgrading” from Sobotka on the 2nd line.

What would need to happen to change your mind?  What if Sabres lose 3 of 4 and the 2nd line goes scoreless in those games?  Then is it ok to change?

Well, it all depends on the trade that's available, innit?