Fancy stat guys - should I be excited yet??

[Derrico]

The team is 7 - 1 and freaking 1.  Coming off a win on the road against a primere team in the west having played 3rd in 4 nights, 4th in 6.  I should be going nuts but last seasons 10 game win streak and associated collapse have me nervous.  During that 10 game win streak many pointed out how they were winning a bunch via ot/shootout and the fancy stats guys correctly reminded us how Corsi and other stats said we weren’t a great team but getting puck luck.  What’s our fancy stats looking like thus far?  Can I get excited yet??

[dudacek]

It’s OK to get the excited whenever your team wins.

[bunomatic]

My wife said it moved so yeah for sure I’m excited.

look at the alternative. Being mired in the bottom with seemingly no way out.

We’re hangin in with the big boys baby !

[TrueBlueGED]

23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It’s OK to get the excited whenever your team wins.

Correct. But to answer what Derrico was actually asking, I'd say you should be more optimistic the team is good than at any point during the streak last year. But give it another 12 games before the numbers have predictive value. 

[PerreaultForever]

I don't know anything about fancy stats, and think even less about them, but I can say for sure hockey fundamentals. teamwork and discplined play are vastly improved over last year which, imo are a more meaningful and lasting thing to build off of than any immediate (and sometimes transitory) stats. 

[Andrew Amerk]

Sam Reinhart will be fine. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Jbot should be fired.  (What to early?)

[PalmTreeMafia]

Risto's plus/minus is 0 after 9 games. That's a fancy enough stat for me which suggests that there might be something to this Krueger guy.

[matter2003]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

I don't know anything about fancy stats, and think even less about them, but I can say for sure hockey fundamentals. teamwork and discplined play are vastly improved over last year which, imo are a more meaningful and lasting thing to build off of than any immediate (and sometimes transitory) stats. 

 

Even when they get hemmed in sometimes they still end up looking dangerous when they end up breaking out.

[shrader]

I’ll say the same thing I did during the streak: enjoy this. You never know how long it will last. 

[SwampD]

The day I ask a fancy stats guy for permission the be excited about my team, is the day I ask for Big Brother for permission to celebrate Oceania bombing Eurasia (cuz we've always been at war with Eurasia), and just put the bullet in me now.

 

We're good. Our record is not a lie. I know we've been conditioned to not believe such things, but get used to it.

Edited October 21, 2019 by SwampD

[Stoner]

53 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Jbot should be fired.  (What to early?)

Nah, Ralph will probably be fine with Botterill serving as his cap guy.

[...]

Despite how the first two periods looked last night, Buffalo actually did a good job and was pretty much "even" with the Sharks in play.  Now, this doesn't speak about the season, obviously, but as a current measure of where the team is at, I'd say that statistically hanging with SJ is an accomplishment for a team that really just sucked last year.

The shot charts from last night. xG, expected goals, are in Buffalo's favour, meaning shots of a better quality with a better chance of scoring.

This same data except linearly as the game progressed. The quality of the shots on goal as the game went on.

In-game Corsi For at even strength.  I believe this is percentage, based on the final numbers at the end of the chart being percents, and the fact that a CF by itself doesn't tell you anything.  CF% indicates possession, so, again, assuming this is percentage (do I need to give that caveat after this?), except for the middle of the first, the Sabres possessed the puck more than SJ, and combined with the other charts, indicates that the Sabres were more dangerous with the puck after right about the game's mid-mark.

 

 

[...]

Having more possession time, which has been my beef for many seasons now, and being more dangerous with that possession, with higher quality shots, indicates that we're on the right path at the moment.  As others have noted, there isn't enough data yet to start projecting.

Possession time + higher quality shots (xG) = less luck, more skill and coaching.

[French Collection]

A number I am impressed with is a +13 goal differential after 9 games. Next best in our division is 4.

[...]

I went through this in another thread, but something like 8 of the 10 games during the streak last year were won by luck statistically. That is not the case, so far, this year.

[erickompositör72]

2 hours ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Sam Reinhart will be fine. 

 

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Jbot should be fired.  (What to early?)

 

Stay on topic, guys. Clearly, the best use of this thread would be to complain about the ROR trade.

[GASabresIUFAN]

On a serious note, I am very interested if the fancy stats people think it's different this time.

I know S% is up, GF/G are up and GA/G down.  The Sabres are also +12 in goal differential.  

 

 

Edited October 21, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, erickompositör72 said:

 

 

Stay on topic, guys. Clearly, the best use of this thread would be to complain about the ROR trade.

A really good face off guy is something we are missing..............

[sweetlou]

Is it to early to try something different on the top line?  They are not getting it done at even strength after 9 games.

Eichel- 4 pts

Reinhart- 4 pts

Olofsson- 2 pts

I love the top PP unit but I wouldn't mind switching up Olofsson and Skinner for a 5 game stretch.  Olofsson did play with Johansson in camp and preseason.

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

A really good face off guy is something we are missing..............

None of our regular centers are over 50%.  Our winger who step in actually have better %.

[Doohicksie]

A couple of non-hockey data points:

It takes about 3-4 weeks for a human activity to become a habit.

In project management, the fundamental performance of project team does not typically vary much once 15% of the project is completed.

If you don't count the preseason, the Sabres aren't quite to either threshold yet.  Another 5 games and a couple of weeks, then yes, you could say they've established a trend.

[...]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

On a serious note, I am very interested if the fancy stats people think it's different this time.

I know S% is up, GF/G are up and GA/G down.  The Sabres are also +12 in goal differential.  

I must not be thought of as a fancy stats person, which is fine, I don't see myself as a fancy stats person, either.

However, to get to this point in the thread, you must have rolled over the one verified fancy stat dood who said you have to wait 12 more games for the numbers to mean anything.

Also, note that, even though I am not a verified fancy stat guy, more of a dabbler, really, perhaps a few rungs up from a dilettante, I did provide my assessment that there is more skill and coaching going on right now than luck.

I would submit, again, not being an actual fancy stat person, so I only assume, or, maybe more accurately, surmise, that your question will raise additional questions like:

Different than what?

What do you mean by different?

[That Aud Smell]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

On a serious note, I am very interested if the fancy stats people think it's different this time.

I know S% is up, GF/G are up and GA/G down.  The Sabres are also +12 in goal differential.  

Like @..., I'm not a true fancy stats poster (I know enough to be dangerous with them, maybe?), but I do enjoy them and try to understand them.

Without doing a side by side, I think everyone agrees, based on eye test and #fancystats, that the current performance is qualitatively different than the winning streak of last fall (which, even at the time, felt, to me, magical and unsustainable).

With regard to SH% and SV% being up, I'll note that Sabres right now are essentially tied for 1st in the league in PDO (SH% + SV%) - essentially some measure of puck luck. If PDO starts to fall off a bit, you're gonna see more regulation losses.

[shrader]

11 hours ago, French Collection said:

A number I am impressed with is a +13 goal differential after 9 games. Next best in our division is 4.

This one drives me crazy because I can never get a straight answer on it.  Does the goal differential include the fake goal awarded for the shootout win?  Fortunately, it's super early in the year and I can in fact do math...

(Long Pause)

...It does include the shootout win.  That's annoying.  The NHL should know better.  It should be +12, not +13.

[That Aud Smell]

Hey - not for nothing - but sorting the season so far based on the advanced stats summary here is ... interesting.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2020.html

The Sabres consistently fall in the bubble team range on a whole host of metrics. In addition to PDO, they also measure in the top-10 in converting high danger scoring chances. Relatedly, their opponents are in the bottom-5 in converting their high danger scoring chances. So, another angle on PDO, maybe. It looks like the Sabres are better, improved. But it also looks like they're bound to regress, unless they become stronger, better still.