GDT: Sabres at Ducks ?7p PT

[Broken Ankles]

2 hours ago, Doohickie said:

that Gif never gets old.  A shame we only play them twice. 

[Broken Ankles]

No change to the Sabres Line up. 

LW	C	RW	Forwards
VICTOR OLOFSSON Rating: 74.5#37 LW	JACK EICHEL Rating: 80.2#8 C	SAM REINHART Rating: 75.5#22 RW	FL1 Rating Rating: 76.73#14 FL1
JEFF SKINNER Rating: 77.3#16 LW	MARCUS JOHANSSON Rating: 73.5#75 C	VLADIMIR SOBOTKA Rating: 68.9#178 RW	FL2 Rating Rating: 73.22#17 FL2
JIMMY VESEY Rating: 70.9#110 LW	CASEY MITTELSTADT Rating: 71.3#132 C	EVAN RODRIGUES Rating: 72.3#68 RW	FL3 Rating Rating: 71.49#22 FL3
ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS Rating: 70.8#147 LW	JOHAN LARSSON Rating: 70.7#150 C	KYLE OKPOSO Rating: 73.0#54 RW	FL4 Rating Rating: 71.48#13 FL4

 

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS		Defense
JAKE MCCABE Rating: 71.9#89 LD	RASMUS RISTOLAINEN Rating: 73.5#46 RD	DL1 Rating Rating: 72.68#27 DL1
RASMUS DAHLIN Rating: 75.8#13 LD	COLIN MILLER Rating: 75.5#22 RD	DL2 Rating Rating: 75.65#3 DL2
MARCO SCANDELLA Rating: 71.7#95 LD	HENRI JOKIHARJU Rating: 72.5#10 RD	DL3 Rating Rating: 72.10#22 DL3

1ST POWERPLAY UNIT
VICTOR OLOFSSON Rating: 74.5#37 SK1	JACK EICHEL Rating: 80.2#8 SK2	JEFF SKINNER Rating: 77.3#16 SK3

SAM REINHART Rating: 75.5#22 SK4

RASMUS DAHLIN Rating: 75.8#13 SK5

 

LW	C	RW	Forwards
RICKARD RAKELL Rating: 75.2#37 LW	ADAM HENRIQUE Rating: 73.0#84 C	JAKOB SILFVERBERG Rating: 75.7#26 RW	FL1 Rating Rating: 74.67#26 FL1
MAXIME COMTOIS	RYAN GETZLAF Rating: 74.7#45 C	ONDREJ KASE Rating: 77.2#12 RW	FL2 Rating Rating: 75.98#5 FL2
NICK RITCHIE Rating: 70.8#116 LW	SAM STEEL Rating: 73.7#61 C	TROY TERRY Rating: 72.4#66 RW	FL3 Rating Rating: 72.28#11 FL3
MAX JONES Rating: 72.9#66 LW	DEREK GRANT Rating: 70.0#164 C	CARTER ROWNEY Rating: 69.2#107 RW	FL4 Rating Rating: 70.69#25 FL4

 

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS		Defense
HAMPUS LINDHOLM Rating: 74.7#28 LD	JOSH MANSON Rating: 72.3#71 RD	DL1 Rating Rating: 73.51#21 DL1
MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO Rating: 72.1#85 LD	CAM FOWLER Rating: 75.5#17 RD	DL2 Rating Rating: 73.77#19 DL2
JACOB LARSSON Rating: 71.4#13 LD	KORBINIAN HOLZER Rating: 71.9#79 RD	DL3 Rating Rating: 71.67#24 DL3

 

Betting line:

I'll be there too. 

[Mustache of God]

I don't think i'll ever understand what those line-up numbers mean. Why does Sobotka look like lava?

[MattPie]

3 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

I don't think i'll ever understand what those line-up numbers mean. Why does Sobotka look like lava?

By some aggregate stat, Boat is #178 in the league for RW. He's lava because generally speaking, if there are 31 teams (and assuming an even distribution of talent), RWs #1 through #31 should be allocated on one per team for the first line, #32 through #62 for the second line, etc. As I understand it, to put it another way your "first line" should be players between 1 and 31, second line between 32 and 62, etc. Having #178 [0] on 2nd line means he's playing on a line well above where his stats say he should (tweener 6th and 7th line). Remember this is small sample size right now, so a couple goals or whatever factors that stat uses probably creates big swings in ratings. If Boat is still 178 in January, there's a question with either his play or how the stat is calculated.

[0] If I'm reading right, there are 5.7 RWs in the league *per team* that are better than Boat.

[Mustache of God]

What goes into determining that number? Fancy stats? Ugly stats? Stats that look so-so after a few ICE COLD LABATTS?

[nfreeman]

Looking at that lineup, I think there is NFW that Anaheim trades a good forward for Risto.  They don't have enough of those to begin with.

[WildCard]

At least we don't have to deal with that prick Corey Perry 

[Doohicksie]

So we're down to only two?

??

[French Collection]

Going to listen on the radio while following this GDT.

The puck movement on the PP will beat any goalie, they need to keep that going.

It’s a sign of respect to be facing Gibson.

Let’s go Buffalo!

[MattPie]

49 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

What goes into determining that number? Fancy stats? Ugly stats? Stats that look so-so after a few ICE COLD LABATTS?

That I don't know. I figure there are a lot of smart people that look at it and it probably bears out results and is adjusted over time to get better. 

[Stoner]

Man, the consistency of the lines and pairings is so refreshing. It'll be interesting to see what Krueger does if the team goes on one of those patented Buffalo Sabres scoring droughts.

1 minute ago, MattPie said:

That I don't know. I figure there are a lot of smart people that look at it and it probably bears out results and is adjusted over time to get better. 

I'm pretty sure you just went 0-3 on assumptions.

[MattPie]

4 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I'm pretty sure you just went 0-3 on assumptions.

Well, looking at the actual list I don't see anything out of place. Are you arguing Svobotka isn't the 178th centre in the league?

Here's the list, with a link to the detailed rating system: https://www.corsicahockey.com/nhl/players/nhl-player-ratings-rankings

[Stoner]

3 minutes ago, MattPie said:

Well, looking at the actual list I don't see anything out of place. Are you arguing Svobotka isn't the 178th centre in the league?

Here's the list, with a link to the detailed rating system: https://www.corsicahockey.com/nhl/players/nhl-player-ratings-rankings

RW you mean? How can he be the 178th-ranked right wing?

[MattPie]

2 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

RW you mean? How can he be the 178th-ranked right wing?

I think he's listed as a center, so he gets rated that way even if he's playing wing (my original post was probably wrong). There seem to be a lot more centers than other forward positions, as there are 182 centers and 159 LW and 153 RW [0]. Larsson is the second-lowest LW, BTW.

In any case, don't trust me; go look at the numbers and decide for yourself. I don't follow hockey that closely any more, but looking at the first page of forwards I don't see anything out of place by much. We can argue a few places up or down, but I don't have issue with Eichel being #8 or Reinhart being #22 (center). Eichel would be the best center on most teams. If you look at RWs, Reinhart's rating puts him around Kessel and Laine.

[0] makes sense, I think the Sabres only have like 2 guys that are RW, Reinhart and Boat being centers. Makes me wonder if all the forwards are rated the same way or if they tweak the weights for center vs wing for things like defense stats.

[Huckleberry]

Of to bed, if I wake up in time I'll be watching ?

[Mustache of God]

NHL Player Ratings Explained

Motivation

Hockey stats have come a long way since the days of Plus-Minus and PIMs. A plethora of sophisticated evaluative metrics now exist for skaters and goaltenders alike, including Game Score and WAR. These new-age stats each individually represent vast improvements over mainstream norms, but even they are prone to blind spots. Inevitably, metrics developed by different people using different methods will each have their own unique strengths and weaknesses.

We believe this diversity should be celebrated. Moreover, we see a tremendous opportunity for combination or “stacking” of these metrics. This principle is central to our Player Ratings.

“Stacking is most effective when the base models are significantly different.”

 

Method

For more reasons than one, combining player metrics into a singular rating is not straightforward. Namely, we encounter the following hurdles:

1. What “representation” of each statistic should be used?
2. How can we combine metrics that may not resemble one another?
3. What relative importance should be given to each metric?

The first challenge can be demonstrated using Game Score as an example. Consider a player having appeared in 200 or more games over the span of 3 seasons. If you were asked to summarize this player’s performance to date using Game Score, what might your approach be? One option is to simply divide the player’s sum Game Score by 200 to obtain an average Game Score per Game (GS/GP). In doing so, we assign the same importance to games played 3 seasons ago as games played in the current or last season, which may not be optimal. Additionally, this approach may unfairly flatter players who are given more minutes.

This is what we mean by using the best “representation” of a given statistic. Our approach to solving this problem was to develop a method of testing the “usefulness” of a particular statistic, then applying this procedure to a large array of different versions – effectively turning this into an optimization problem. Usefulness here was defined as follows: if measures of team roster strength (separated by player position) were taken using a given statistic, how successfully could we predict game outcomes using them in addition to basic predictors like home ice advantage and fatigue? This framework was used to select representations of each player metric. For Game Score, the optimal version was found to be a recency-weighted average of GS/GP over the previous 120 games.

Another important consideration is how to curb results obtained in small samples such that they do not put forth an unfair representation of a player’s ability. Our solution is to regress a player’s metrics towards a known average in cases where they have not yet exceeded an arbitrary Games Played threshold. For a given parameter P and metric M, the mean value of M, mM is computed for all players whose cumulative games played are fewer than P. A regularized version of M, M’ is then calculated in cases where a player has played fewer games than P.

M’ = (GP * M + (P – GP) * mM)/P

In order to produce a single number from this set of components, we opted to use a linear combination:

where M_i is the ith regularized metric and w_i the corresponding weight. It is clear that this framework becomes totally dependent on the values given to the yet undefined weights w.

Thankfully, we have already defined a method for expressing the “usefulness” of a metric. This method can be recycled in order to optimize the weights such that they produce the best-performing Player Rating.

 

Results

We think we’ve produced the best single-number representation of a player’s quality that currently exists publicly. Visit our Player Ratings page by clicking the button below and see what you think.

So yeah, Sobotka is one of the worst forwards out there. Probably doesn't belong on the 2nd line.

[Stoner]

I think Sobotka is doing pretty much what Ralph wants him to do and the team is 5-0-1 with 25 freakin' goals. Can't we just be together and be happy and enjoy the nice day?
Mikayla do NOT wipe that booger on your brother!

[Mustache of God]

But imagine how many more goals we could have with an actual top-6 winger there? 

I am enjoying the run, but I think we can be better and as a fan base we deserve that. We also need our bunker-baby scapegoat. I am happy to pile on Sobotka until he is replaced.

[...]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Man, the consistency of the lines and pairings is so refreshing. It'll be interesting to see what Krueger does if the team goes on one of those patented Buffalo Sabres scoring droughts.

He will sit in a regal chair. He will then contemplate the situation.

[dudacek]

We’re due for a clunker, but I don’t think we’ll get it tonight.

But we are also due for a game where we play well but aren’t rewarded.

Gibson scares me.

[bunomatic]

Ben Bishop scared me and he looked like chopped liver by the time the gunslingers they call the Sabres were done with him.

[Wyldnwoody44]

I hope sobotka scores an ovechtrick just to silence the masses. 

Also, I miss conversations about hockey, just hockey, no F'n science, no stats and no other bs. Alas, those days are gone 

 

[#freejame]

Just now, Wyldnwoody44 said:

I hope sobotka scores an ovechtrick just to silence the masses. 

Also, I miss conversations about hockey, just hockey, no F'n science, no stats and no other bs. Alas, those days are gone 

 

Sounds like a new thread 

[darksabre]

8 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

I hope sobotka scores an ovechtrick just to silence the masses. 

Also, I miss conversations about hockey, just hockey, no F'n science, no stats and no other bs. Alas, those days are gone 

 

I'll take this current version of discourse over the awful stuff we were saying ten years ago on here, like Tim Connolly's brain damage being a punch line.

[woods-racer]

5 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

I hope sobotka scores an ovechtrick just to silence the masses. 

Also, I miss conversations about hockey, just hockey, no F'n science, no stats and no other bs. Alas, those days are gone 

 

I enjoy a sprinkling of it.

Broken Ankle's line up chart with a sprinkle of stats is just a nice way to see how we stack up line vs. line when you don't know 90% of the other teams players because we just never see them.