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Posted
18 hours ago, pi2000 said:

League wide best and worst TRpms to date....   Cole and Kassian basically carrying their teams on their backs ?‍♂️

Sabres winning despite Eichel and Olofsson dragging them down at even strength.    

 


++++++++++++++++++++++
    top 25
++++++++++++++++++++++
COL Ian Cole                 8.06
EDM Zack Kassian             7.88
ANA Jakob Silfverberg        7.27
OTT Jean-Gabriel Pageau      6.67
WSH John Carlson             6.43
DET Dylan Larkin             6.39
VEG William Karlsson         6.30
MIN Carson Soucy             6.03
CAR Dougie Hamilton          5.65
ANA Adam Henrique            5.50
PIT Brian Dumoulin           5.42
WSH Radko Gudas              5.29
ANA Rickard Rakell           5.29
DET Anthony Mantha           5.28
TBL Mikhail Sergachev        5.19
EDM Matt Benning             5.09
FLA Anton Stralman           5.08
NYI Mathew Barzal            5.00
LAK Sean Walker              4.95
NSH Mattias Ekholm           4.78
LAK Blake Lizotte            4.65
SJS Brenden Dillon           4.56
DAL Miro Heiskanen           4.45
VAN J.T. Miller              4.37
BOS Brad Marchand            4.33

++++++++++++++++++++++
    bottom 25
++++++++++++++++++++++
NYI Derick Brassard         -5.00
CGY Noah Hanifin            -5.00
ANA Troy Terry              -5.00
NJD Damon Severson          -5.03
CBJ Boone Jenner            -5.04
TOR Tyson Barrie            -5.11
OTT Artem Anisimov          -5.14
SJS Erik Karlsson           -5.18
DAL Radek Faksa             -5.25
OTT Tyler Ennis             -5.26
MIN Mathew Dumba            -5.28
SJS Marc-Edouard Vlasic     -5.58
BUF Victor Olofsson         -5.64
WSH Nick Jensen             -5.69
MIN Eric Staal              -5.76
WPG Kyle Connor             -6.02
SJS Kevin Labanc            -6.07
BUF Jack Eichel             -6.10
COL Erik Johnson            -6.11
DET Andreas Athanasiou      -6.20
WSH Dmitry Orlov            -6.64
COL Samuel Girard           -6.92
CGY Michael Frolik          -7.00
LAK Ilya Kovalchuk          -7.22
COL Gabriel Landeskog       -7.48

Risto:


Team  Player                   TRpm    GP   +/-  exp+/-  %min
BUF Rasmus Ristolainen        -3.60    9     0    3.60   40.1

 

So, what you're pointing out is that TRpm has little if any value? What else could we possibly take from a stat that shows Kassian at the top and Eichel at the bottom?

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Posted
On 10/22/2019 at 9:42 AM, Hank said:

So, what you're pointing out is that TRpm has little if any value? What else could we possibly take from a stat that shows Kassian at the top and Eichel at the bottom?

I've stated this before... you must take into account team performance when looking at TRpm.   It's not for comparing players on different teams... unless you consider how well the team is playing.... eg, a TRpm of 0 on a great team is excellent, it means you're an equal contributor to the team's success (at ES).   

I haven't figured out yet how to normalize TRpm to compare players across the league.

That said, do you have evidence that suggests Kassian is playing poorly at ES?   Or that Eichel is excelling at ES?   Half of his points are on the power play, and he's a -1 on a team that has a +9 ES goal differential. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

I've stated this before... you must take into account team performance when looking at TRpm.   It's not for comparing players on different teams... unless you consider how well the team is playing.... eg, a TRpm of 0 on a great team is excellent, it means you're an equal contributor to the team's success (at ES).   

I haven't figured out yet how to normalize TRpm to compare players across the league.

That said, do you have evidence that suggests Kassian is playing poorly at ES?   Or that Eichel is excelling at ES?   Half of his points are on the power play, and he's a -1 on a team that has a +9 ES goal differential. 

He is leading the first-place team in the league in ice time for forwards, yet is among the lowest-ranked players in the league?

Whatever the system is ranking, it's not excellence.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He is leading the first-place team in the league in ice time for forwards, yet is among the lowest-ranked players in the league?

Whatever the system is ranking, it's not excellence.

FWIW, Eichel is no longer in the bottom 25....  he's now a -4.12 TRpm.     Again, a poor TRpm on a good team is better than poor TRpm on a bad team.   Until I figure out how to normalize across teams, then it's just shows which players are having either a net positive or net negative impact on their team's performance at ES.   

++++++++++++++++++++++
    bottom 25
++++++++++++++++++++++
OTT Tyler Ennis             -5.09
DAL Radek Faksa             -5.11
PIT Teddy Blueger           -5.35
DAL John Klingberg          -5.38
COL Cale Makar              -5.54
WSH Nick Jensen             -5.65
SJS Kevin Labanc            -5.71
EDM Riley Sheahan           -5.76
CBJ Boone Jenner            -5.91
EDM Jujhar Khaira           -5.94
BUF Victor Olofsson         -5.94
CGY Travis Hamonic          -6.00
CGY Noah Hanifin            -6.00
SJS Marc-Edouard Vlasic     -6.08
TOR Mitch Marner            -6.22
PIT John Marino             -6.27
TOR Tyson Barrie            -6.35
WSH Dmitry Orlov            -6.61
LAK Ilya Kovalchuk          -7.13
ANA Troy Terry              -7.23
COL Erik Johnson            -7.68
CGY Michael Frolik          -8.00
COL Gabriel Landeskog       -8.01
DET Andreas Athanasiou      -8.05
COL Samuel Girard           -8.52

 

10 games is also a relatively small sample size, so until we get to 20-30 games there just isn't enough data to draw any sounds conclusions just yet.

 

==============================================================
BUF even strength goal differential through 10 games = 9
BUF average even strength goal differential per game = 0.9
exp+/- is a function of gp, %min played, and team ES goal diff
TRpm(team relative +/-) is the diff btwn actual+/- and exp+/-
==============================================================
Team  Player                   TRpm    GP    +/-  exp+/-  %min
BUF Marco Scandella            4.32    10     7    2.68   29.8
BUF Casey Mittelstadt          4.29    10     6    1.72   19.1
BUF Marcus Johansson           2.52    10     5    2.48   27.6
BUF Henri Jokiharju            2.51    10     5    2.49   27.7
BUF Colin Miller               2.24    10     5    2.76   30.6
BUF Jimmy Vesey                2.17    10     4    1.82   20.3
BUF Conor Sheary               1.96     6     3    1.04   19.3
BUF Vladimir Sobotka           1.71    10     4    2.29   25.5
BUF Jeff Skinner               1.24    10     4    2.76   30.6
BUF Evan Rodrigues            -0.54     4     0    0.54   15.0
BUF Kyle Okposo               -0.65    10     1    1.65   18.3
BUF Rasmus Dahlin             -1.86    10     1    2.86   31.8
BUF Sam Reinhart              -2.01    10     1    3.01   33.4
BUF Zemgus Girgensons         -2.99    10    -1    1.99   22.1
BUF Rasmus Ristolainen        -3.64    10     0    3.64   40.4
BUF Jack Eichel               -4.12    10    -1    3.12   34.7
BUF Johan Larsson             -4.12    10    -2    2.11   23.5
BUF Jake McCabe               -4.16    10    -1    3.16   35.1
BUF Victor Olofsson           -5.65    10    -3    2.65   29.4
==============================================================

 

Edited by pi2000
Posted

When is it to early to throw Toronto's revamped D and Babcock under the bus?  They have 4 guys playing 22-25 minutes a night and 4 guys who Babcock is afraid to put on the ice.  The great Fred Anderson, who I have never liked, has a .901 save % and a 3.19 goals against.  

This is not the defense that wins championships.  

Posted
7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

When is it to early to throw Toronto's revamped D and Babcock under the bus?  They have 4 guys playing 22-25 minutes a night and 4 guys who Babcock is afraid to put on the ice.  The great Fred Anderson, who I have never liked, has a .901 save % and a 3.19 goals against.  

This is not the defense that wins championships.  

They are missing Tavares which is huge.  Babcock is getting huge criticism and maybe deserving of it.  Goaltending is suspect .

 

Posted
8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

When is it to early to throw Toronto's revamped D and Babcock under the bus?  They have 4 guys playing 22-25 minutes a night and 4 guys who Babcock is afraid to put on the ice.  The great Fred Anderson, who I have never liked, has a .901 save % and a 3.19 goals against.  

This is not the defense that wins championships.  

 

35 minutes ago, freester said:

They are missing Tavares which is huge.  Babcock is getting huge criticism and maybe deserving of it.  Goaltending is suspect .

Pretty much what freester says. Babcock is also still Babcock, and refuses to give big minutes/important situations to the younger guys, despite them making 11M per

Posted
9 minutes ago, WildCard said:

 

Pretty much what freester says. Babcock is also still Babcock, and refuses to give big minutes/important situations to the younger guys, despite them making 11M per

Babcock is old school. 

dance party dancing GIF

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, WildCard said:

 

Quick with an .847sv% and Campbell with a .897sv%, they can outshoot opponents but this level of GT will sink them. 

Edited by LGR4GM
Posted
14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Quick with an .847sv% and Campbell with a .897sv%, they can outshoot opponents but this level of GT will sink them. 

I'm just surprised McClellan has them playing this well with that roster. I thought both, the roster and he, were subpar 

Posted
On 10/24/2019 at 4:15 PM, steveoath said:

Winnipeg pick up D-man Luca Sbisa on waivers from the ducks. He'd just signed a deal in Anaheim but apparently it had to go through waivers. A sign that Dustin ain't coming back?

Are you suggesting that Byfuglien (did I get that right?) would have to clear waivers too?  If so, that's not the case.  Veterans who sign mid-season need to clear waivers before playing, so that's what happened with Sbisa.  Dustin is already under contract so it's not a concern with him.  He's basically the equivalent of being on IR right now, a member of the team, but not counted against the roster limit.

Now if you're saying they brought in Sbisa as a replacement, I'm not so sure on that one either.  They needed the body, but they'll quickly cast him aside should Dustin decide to return.

Posted

Poolman is hurt and Heinola (the kid is a keeper) is probably going back to Finland or down to the Moose before he hits 10 games.  Never mind Toronto, we have the worst D corps in the league.

Morrissey Kulikov Pionk Bitetto Dahlstrom Sbisa and Heinola at 8 games.

Niku Poolman Beaulieu hurt

Buff out.

Barely legit with everyone healthy and Buff in.

Posted
1 minute ago, Ducky said:

Poolman is hurt and Heinola (the kid is a keeper) is probably going back to Finland or down to the Moose before he hits 10 games.  Never mind Toronto, we have the worst D corps in the league.

Morrissey Kulikov Pionk Bitetto Dahlstrom Sbisa and Heinola at 8 games.

Niku Poolman Beaulieu hurt

Buff out.

Barely legit with everyone healthy and Buff in.

There's a very immature part of me that wishes his first name started with an S.

But.. yeah.. it's not good.  Worse than Toronto?  I don't know.  

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Posted
10 hours ago, shrader said:

Now if you're saying they brought in Sbisa as a replacement, I'm not so sure on that one either.  They needed the body, but they'll quickly cast him aside should Dustin decide to return.

Yeah, that's what I was pondering. I suppose if DB comes back the could put him on waivers and if Anaheim wanted him back they'd claim him. 

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