Lines October 1st

[Randall Flagg]

2 minutes ago, WildCard said:

"Well if it's so easy why don't you be the GM? These guys have these jobs for a reason, why are you questioning them?"

That, that would be the worst

That's the message at the core of his post.

[...]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

He is?  Have you seen his passing?  And more importantly, has Krueger seen it and actually watched it in game conditions? ?

I should have said "win the faceoff, feeding Johansson the puck..." 

[Taro T]

Just now, jsb said:

 

(Beaulieu-Nelson) GONE -Risto-McCabe-Dahlin (rookie season)-Scandella................ This was our opening night defense

Risto-McCabe a seasoned Dahlin, Miller, Montour, Pilut would be reason #1 why we'll be better

Johansson is better than Berglund, Casey is a year older, Olofsson is better than Pominville, the 2nd and 3rd line is better than anything we had last year in those spots. Team speed appears much better this year. Guys in AHL look closer to being ready than last year also, which should help when the inevitable injuries kick in. Not great but BETTER.

It IS better.  But is it enough better to overcome a self inflicted slow start?

[Randall Flagg]

This is obviously a philosophical thing. Some people are more inclined to trust the coach and less inclined to trust themselves, and others go the other way. 

 

The thing that hangs me up isn't that - it's this: If you can justify Sobotka in the top 6 after the last calendar year, and you aren't in favor of criticizing it, you cannot be logically consistent while criticizing any other possible roster move. Every single thing they do should be "wait and see, they could be right." Even if they had decided to trade a first for Alzner and put him on the top pair. Because Vlad was that bad. Hutton and Ullmark were not as bad relative to their peers that Vlad was - goaltending criticism is out the window too. It's a fine philosophy to take, but I don't think people are that consistent.

I'm equally inclined to wait and see on Vlad Sobotka in the top 6 in 2019 as I would be about claiming the worst player off of waivers with a "defensive" reputation and doing the same thing. It's logically consistent. And that would horrify anyone here.

Edited October 1, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[jsb]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

It IS better.  But is it enough better to overcome a self inflicted slow start?

I understand the angst but I don't think Sobotka will be a top 5 reason as to why we do well or start slow starting Thursday.

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

This is obviously a philosophical thing. Some people are more inclined to trust the coach and less inclined to trust themselves, and others go the other way. 

 

The thing that hangs me up isn't that - it's this: If you can justify Sobotka in the top 6 after the last calendar year, and you aren't in favor of criticizing it, you cannot be logically consistent while criticizing any other possible roster move. Every single thing they do should be "wait and see, they could be right." Even if they had decided to trade a first for Alzner and put him on the top pair. Because Vlad was that bad. Hutton and Ullmark were not as bad relative to their peers that Vlad was - goaltending criticism is out the window too. It's a fine philosophy to take, but I don't think people are that consistent.

I'm equally inclined to wait and see on Vlad Sobotka in the top 6 in 2019 as I would be about claiming the worst player off of waivers with a "defensive" reputation and doing the same thing. It's logically consistent. And that would horrify anyone here.

Just gonna add this here as well. 

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, jsb said:

I understand the angst but I don't think Sobotka will be a top 5 reason as to why we do well or start slow starting Thursday.

Perhaps not.  But it is a very easily avoidable hurdle that has been added to their list of items to overcome.

[...]

The problem, in a nutshell, has been maintaining possession long enough to do something offensively and then defending effectively when they don't have possession.

Who does this well on these lines?  WARNING: the following is eye-test and memory only.  I welcome corrections based on stats from those with the time to contribute that data.

Olofsson-Eichel-Reinhart - I would say at least Eichel and Samson possess and defend well.  I'm fairly confident in saying Olofsson is at least competent at both.
Skinner-Johansson-Sobotka - Skinner can possess but not a great defender in his own zone. No idea about Johansson. Sobotka - possession and defensive black hole.
Vesey-Mittelstadt-Sheary - I think Vesey isn't bad at maintaining possession, but can't say about defending other than I recall his stats in this area aren't encouraging. Mitts, no. Sheary, double no. (aside: this line will be horrible defensively, which will neuter its offensive potential)
Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo - All three are capable defenders.  Z can maintain possession sometimes, for a little bit.  Angry Larry is better at possession than Z. KO triple no.

[That Aud Smell]

57 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

In fact, I'm not even convinced Ottawa is going to use Boedkker this year. Montreal waived Alzner. Kesler won't ever see the ice for Anaheim again. Brassard was punted from Colorado. Braun was punted from the Sharks. Perlini became a regular scratch once his contributions became apparent. Carolina dumped Rask as soon as they could. All of these guys occupy a tier near Sobotka, even though he's in his own by himself essentially. And we put Vlad on line 2 instead.

As I read this litany, I fell into this cadence:

[nfreeman]

33 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

For sixty games, we ran Sobotka out with the 4th most ES minutes of any Sabre, as the effective 2C, and collapsed in the standings the entire time on the back of our middle six scoring, which would go stretches of 3 weeks at a time only delivering a single goal or two between two full lines - he himself contributed one goal during the stretch. A goal to end a 42 game goal-less streak with all those minutes. That goal was a dribbler with the goalie pulled while we were down by 2 with 7 seconds left. 

Nobody is saying Vlad dooms the season, or that other factors weren't at play. I've already given the death by a thousand cuts analogy, and Sobotka was the most obvious self-inflicted wound of the last decade. While it doesn't doom the season, it's some level of indictment on somebody. 

Negative.

The most obvious one -- and the stupidest, and the most destructive, on several orders of magnitude -- rhymes with "skank."

Moreover, there have been many other moves this decade that were materially worse than starting this season with Sobotka as #2 RW, including, just off the top of my head:

- Keeping Darcy

- Leino

- Rolston

- Trading a #1 for Lehner

- Trading McNabb and 2 second-rounders for Fasching

- Nylander

- Grigorenko

- Trading ROR for a pupu platter

- Relying on Mitts last year

- Relying on Hutton/Ullmark last year and this year

[dudacek]

52 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Consider there are infinite parallel universes (there are), in at least one of those universes we agree on something... we live in that universe.

Winning hockey isn't just about offense.    What's plagued this team for years is the ability to consistently defend.     They give up way too many scoring chances to be competitive, and it's not just on the defense.    This team needs to get better at creating takeaways, puck protection, gap control, d-zone and neutral zone play, etc... They have guys who can score, they don't have enough guys who can defend.    

 

I find it very interesting that both Botterill and Krueger stated very strongly to Lebrun that his team has the necessary offensive horses, but needs to create the defensive structure and the ability to exit its zone and flip the ice. This was echoed by a rival coach in another recent Athletic article.

Krueger has focused on defence in a number of recent interviews. Botterill’s moves (Montour, Miller, Jokiharju, Johansson) have been focused on players who excel in transition. Our ability to play with pace is improved, on paper and from what we’ve seen in the exhibition games.

I tend to buy in to the consensus view on this site that we are too similar to what we were last year with similar flaws and holes.

But I can see what they are trying to do. There is a plan in place, there is as much talent as we’ve seen in years (admittedly that’s a low bar) and there is a leader in place.

I am both skeptical and intrigued and more than ready for the puck to be dropped.

Edited October 1, 2019 by dudacek

[darksabre]

I'm going to throw this out here and really let people melt down:

One of the reasons Housley was fired was for his misuse of Sobotka the last two seasons compared to how he was used historically prior to coming to Buffalo.

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Negative.

The most obvious one -- and the stupidest, and the most destructive, on several orders of magnitude -- rhymes with "skank."

 

This is incorrect and as much as you would love it to be so, it will never be so. 

2 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I'm going to throw this out here and really let people melt down:

One of the reasons Housley was fired was for his misuse of Sobotka the last two seasons compared to how he was used historically prior to coming to Buffalo.

Sobotka was only here last season. He was terrible in the year before when he played for St Louis. Yes it was a reason Housley was fired but Sobotka hasn't been an NHL player in 2 seasons regardless of use. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Question:  Other then Sobotka, does anyone object to the rest of the lineup?  

At forward the 4th line is what worked last year. Our two best players are together with our top NHL ready prospect on the 1st line.  We all wanted Casey on he 3rd line and he has two capable wingers. Lastly our best sniper and 3rd best playmaker are on the 2nd line albeit with a question mark at RW.

On defense the pairings also make sense.  He put the most responsible D with Risto, 2 skaters/puck movers together in Dahlin and Miller, and put our Vet with the rookie on the 3rd pairing.  

So I am, who is RK’s other real option a 2RW?  Okposo is terrible. Erod wasn’t very good in the pre-season. Lazar was decent, but isn’t good enough for a top 6 role.  Thompson showed flashes but needs more work.  I might have slotted Sheary at the 2RW for now, but I don’t think that’s really much of an upgrade.  So who do we have that is really a huge upgrade? 

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Negative.

The most obvious one -- and the stupidest, and the most destructive, on several orders of magnitude -- rhymes with "skank."

Moreover, there have been many other moves this decade that were materially worse than starting this season with Sobotka as #2 RW, including, just off the top of my head:

- Keeping Darcy

- Leino

- Rolston

- Trading a #1 for Lehner

- Trading McNabb and 2 second-rounders for Fasching

- Nylander

- Grigorenko

- Trading ROR for a pupu platter

- Relying on Mitts last year

- Relying on Hutton/Ullmark last year and this year

- Keeping Darcy: Didn't matter they were tanking who cares.

- Leino: doesn't matter was bought out for no team impact

- Rolston: yup

- Trading a #1 for Lehner: yup

- Trading McNabb and 2 second-rounders for Fasching: yup

- Nylander: yup

- Grigorenko: this one is hard because I think they couldn't have predicted how bad he ended up but they also screwed his development. 

- Trading ROR for a pupu platter: including Sobotka

- Relying on Mitts last year: wasn't the plan but Berglund torpedoed that and also part of the ROR trade fiasco

- Relying on Hutton/Ullmark last year and this year: debatable but we shall know shortly if this is a major mistake. 

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Question:  Other then Sobotka, does anyone object to the rest of the lineup?  

At forward the 4th line is what worked last year.

Answering your own question here. 

[darksabre]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This is incorrect and as much as you would love it to be so, it will never be so. 

Sobotka was only here last season. He was terrible in the year before when he played for St Louis. Yes it was a reason Housley was fired but Sobotka hasn't been an NHL player in 2 seasons regardless of use. 

You caught me before I could fix it. But you're right. Last season only under Housley, who leaned on him in a defensive role even more than in his last season in St. Louis. Prior to that, given more balanced deployment, he wasn't too bad. Not an offensive juggernaut, but not a liability either.

Any way, stirring the pot since that's what everyone wants.

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So I am, who is RK’s other real option a 2RW?  Okposo is terrible. Erod wasn’t very good in the pre-season. Lazar was decent, but isn’t good enough for a top 6 role.  Thompson showed flashes but needs more work.  I might have slotted Sheary at the 2RW for now, but I don’t think that’s really much of an upgrade.  So who do we have that is really a huge upgrade? 

Over Sobotka... 

Thompson, Olofsson, Sheary, Reinhart, my future dog, a turd, harry potter's first girlfirend, Vesey, CJ Smith, a lot lizzard smoking cigs, and Evan Rodrigues. 

3 minutes ago, darksabre said:

You caught me before I could fix it. But you're right. Last season only under Housley, who leaned on him in a defensive role even more than in his last season in St. Louis. Prior to that, given more balanced deployment, he wasn't too bad. Not an offensive juggernaut, but not a liability either.

Any way, stirring the pot since that's what everyone wants.

Hey at least this place is thorough. It is more so than the Sabres front office at this point. 

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Question:  Other then Sobotka, does anyone object to the rest of the lineup?  

At forward the 4th line is what worked last year. Our two best players are together with our top NHL ready prospect on the 1st line.  We all wanted Casey on he 3rd line and he has two capable wingers. Lastly our best sniper and 3rd best playmaker are on the 2nd line albeit with a question mark at RW.

On defense the pairings also make sense.  He put the most responsible D with Risto, 2 skaters/puck movers together in Dahlin and Miller, and put our Vet with the rookie on the 3rd pairing.  

So I am, who is RK’s other real option a 2RW?  Okposo is terrible. Erod wasn’t very good in the pre-season. Lazar was decent, but isn’t good enough for a top 6 role.  Thompson showed flashes but needs more work.  I might have slotted Sheary at the 2RW for now, but I don’t think that’s really much of an upgrade.  So who do we have that is really a huge upgrade? 

I posted similar thoughts earlier up-thread.

It’s not necessarily how I would have lined up, but other than Vlad, there’s a logic to everything Ralph did.

There’s even a logical argument to be made if you are talking about the concept of Vlad. It’s just that those of us who watched Vlad last year have no reason to believe the concept of Vlad can be a real thing.

[Cheektorado]

After reading this thread I feel like I shouldn't even watch Thursday game.

[Cityo'Rasmii]

Go Vlad

Go Sabres

[jsb]

16 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I'm going to throw this out here and really let people melt down:

One of the reasons Housley was fired was for his misuse of Sobotka the last two seasons compared to how he was used historically prior to coming to Buffalo.

They're not melting already???

 

[nfreeman]

25 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This is incorrect and as much as you would love it to be so, it will never be so.

You've agreed that after a certain number of additional crappy seasons, you will admit that it was a mistake, right?  Is this the last one?

[GASabresIUFAN]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I posted similar thoughts earlier up-thread.

It’s not necessarily how I would have lined up, but other than Vlad, there’s a logic to everything Ralph did.

There’s even a logical argument to be made if you are talking about the concept of Vlad. It’s just that those of us who watched Vlad last year have no reason to believe the concept of Vlad can be a real thing.

I’m not some Vlad apologist, but I look at the other options and don’t really see where we have a good one.  I like Erod and have been a proponent, but he did nothing in camp to earn the slot.  Not having an option here is on Jbot.

However, the real strength of this team is likely the mobile defense.  Not only as you have said has Jbot upgraded the group with the additions of Pilut, Montour, Miller and Jokiharju, but once Montour and Pilut get healthy, maybe Jbot will finally be able to swing a trade to get an upgrade at 2 RW or 2C.

[pi2000]

27 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

I find it very interesting that both Botterill and Krueger stated very strongly to Lebrun that his team has the necessary offensive horses, but needs to create the defensive structure and the ability to exit its zone and flip the ice. This was echoed by a rival coach in another recent Athletic article.

Krueger has focused on defence in a number of recent interviews. Botterill’s moves (Montour, Miller, Jokiharju, Johansson) have been focused on players who excel in transition. Our ability to play with pace is improved, on paper and from what we’ve seen in the exhibition games.

I tend to buy in to the consensus view on this site that we are too similar to what we were last year with similar flaws and holes.

But I can see what they are trying to do. There is a plan in place, there is as much talent as we’ve seen in years (admittedly that’s a low bar) and there is a leader in place.

I am both skeptical and intrigued and more than ready for the puck to be dropped.

Can anybody honestly say this team played to their potential under Housley last season?  Or the season before that?   

The fact that there hasn't been a major overhaul of the roster suggests that JBOT believes the issues plaguing this team can largely be fixed with a new head coach.   

This did team play well in spurts last season...  if Kruger can get through to these guys then they may be on to something... regardless of where Sobotka lands in the lineup.

 

[Taro T]

36 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Question:  Other then Sobotka, does anyone object to the rest of the lineup?  

At forward the 4th line is what worked last year. Our two best players are together with our top NHL ready prospect on the 1st line.  We all wanted Casey on he 3rd line and he has two capable wingers. Lastly our best sniper and 3rd best playmaker are on the 2nd line albeit with a question mark at RW.

On defense the pairings also make sense.  He put the most responsible D with Risto, 2 skaters/puck movers together in Dahlin and Miller, and put our Vet with the rookie on the 3rd pairing.  

So I am, who is RK’s other real option a 2RW?  Okposo is terrible. Erod wasn’t very good in the pre-season. Lazar was decent, but isn’t good enough for a top 6 role.  Thompson showed flashes but needs more work.  I might have slotted Sheary at the 2RW for now, but I don’t think that’s really much of an upgrade.  So who do we have that is really a huge upgrade? 

Until a trade fof a 2nd liner can be made, would move Sheary (if healthy enough for regular minutes) up into Sobotka's slot and would put Rodrigues at 3RW.

Am fine with starting Okposo on the 4th line but would give Lazar a shot there quickly if that 4th line doesn't rekindle last year's chemistry.

If Sheary is over matched at 2RW would try 1st Rodrigues and likely give Thompson another crack at 3RW.  Someway somehow, 2 of those 3 have to make that assignment work until Botterill does his job and fills at a minimum the 2RW hole if not the 2C hole.  (At which point Johansson enters the mix for 2RW.)

And, I realize my wanting to keep Krueger's top line together is a minority view here, but the way the 3 clicked last year and in the preseason makes me want to see what they can do when the games actually matter.  And also realize that if Skinner goes into a tank, he'll need to be reunited with Eichel at least for a while.  But, Skinner is good enough to be able to get to 30 goals if he has at least reasonable linemates (IMHO).  Though, can't see anyone calling Sobotka a reasonable NHl 2nd line linemate.

The D, considering all the injuries is about as well situated at present that you'll get.  Though will bring up Pilut as soon as the rust is off and in a few weeks when Montour is healthy, Ristolainen slides to 3RD (assuming he doesn't go out the door) & Jokiharju goes to the A to work on things that were exposed in the last 2 weeks.

Edited October 1, 2019 by Taro T