Lines October 1st

[Curt]

4 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

 

We also we extremely unlucky in terms of our early pseudo-tank years. If we fell while still having Vanek or Pommers we’d be better off now as we’d of had a few old guard to bring the new guys in. Murray/Regier gutted us to the bone and left no rock unturned. One thing Chicago, Toronto, and Pittsburgh had were a handful of old players who had played in the franchise in and through the tank. They were the rope bridge that connected past teams with the present incarnation. We had absolutely nothing in terms of long term players who we kept around. So we swung across the “chasm” but forgot to tie the other side of the bridge. Now we are stuck as this amorphous franchise with no identity. I do think Pommers returning helped. Hopefully we will regain an identity 

I know it sounds absolutely corny, but that is definitely part of what Krueger is trying to do.  Building an identity.  Redefining what it means to be a Buffalo Sabre.  

It’s a totally psychological thing, but it probably is necessary to consciously work at developing that.  It’s something that was most definitely destroyed in the tank war.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

It's the same as the difference between a replacement level player, and a good one. Sheary isn't quite "good", but Sobotka is below replacement. I think it matters. 

As @Taro T always says, he is an offensive black hole. Pairing him with your 9 million dollar winger, after getting him to that 9 mil by playing him with Jack all year the year before, seems extremely sub-optimal. Especially considering how Skinner was scoring his goals: off Eichel rebounds. Don't fancy Vlad's shot as a replacement. 

Like, if the answer to why Vladmir Sobotka is playing SECOND LINE RW (on his off-hand, mind you) is that "there's no one much better", that's a vicious indictment in and of itself counter argument be damned. 

I think Sheary last year was at or below replacement level.  Not materially better than Sobotka.  

[Thorner]

8 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I think Sheary last year was at or below replacement level.  Not materially better than Sobotka.  

If you can look at all the stats, (combined with, I'd argue, the eye-test) that say otherwise and still feel that way, I'm not going to venture into that debate. That's your opinion.

For the sake of argument, do you agree with the stats (and the eye-test) that says Sobotka was one of, if not the worst skater in the league last year? If so, how do you excuse Botterill for entering into the season with that RW depth, considering 2 of the other 4 are Sheary, who you say is similar to Sobotka, and Okposo?

I am severely struggling with why the expectations need to be as low as they are. Why can't we aspire to more than the worst RW core in the league after Reinhart, like it was with Eichel at C last year?

Edited October 2, 2019 by Thorny

[freester]

9 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I think Sheary last year was at or below replacement level.  Not materially better than Sobotka.  

This

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, freester said:

This

So even just looking at the basic stats, the 34 points to 13 point difference is negligible? Or there are advanced metrics out there showing Sobotka with better impacts than Sheary to make up for Sobotka having basically a 3rd of the points? I don't understand this debate anymore. 

Edited October 2, 2019 by Thorny

[nfreeman]

Just now, Thorny said:

If you can look at all the stats, (combined with, I'd argue, the eye-test) that say otherwise and still feel that way, I'm not going to venture into that debate. That's your opinion.

For the sake of argument, do you agree with the stats (and the eye-test) that says Sobotka was one of, if not the worst skater in the league last year? If so, how do you excuse Botterill for entering into the season with that RW depth, considering 2 of the other 4 are Sheary, who you say is similar to Sobotka, and Okposo?

I don’t dispute that Vlad was terrible last year.  I just think that Sheary was pretty bad for most of the year too, and that the difference between the 2 is not significant—and certainly not substantial enough to justify the anguish around here regarding playing one vs the other on line 2.

As for whether JB should’ve brought in another good forward — I know I’d be happier right now if he had traded Risto for, say, Ehlers.  But I don’t think that caliber of player was available for Risto, and I wouldn’t have been happy if he had traded Risto or other valuable assets for a lesser return.  A good FA forward on a good contact (like Mojo)?  Sure, but that guy has to be available and willing to come here.   

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I don’t dispute that Vlad was terrible last year.  I just think that Sheary was pretty bad for most of the year too, and that the difference between the 2 is not significant—and certainly not substantial enough to justify the anguish around here regarding playing one vs the other on line 2.

As for whether JB should’ve brought in another good forward — I know I’d be happier right now if he had traded Risto for, say, Ehlers.  But I don’t think that caliber of player was available for Risto, and I wouldn’t have been happy if he had traded Risto or other valuable assets for a lesser return.  A good FA forward on a good contact (like Mojo)?  Sure, but that guy has to be available and willing to come here.   

So the answer as the GM is just, "Well, couldn't do it, maybe next year!"? At what point are results mandated on the ice? When the bar is Sobotka low, and even THAT can't be improved upon, what is even going on?

Edited October 2, 2019 by Thorny

[freester]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So even just looking at the basic stats, the 34 points to 13 point difference is negligible? Or there are advanced metrics out there showing Sobotka with better impacts than Sheary to make up for Sobotka having basically a 3rd of the points? I don't understand this debate anymore. 

Sheary and Sobotka are 4th liners. Okposo should not be in the NHL

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I don’t dispute that Vlad was terrible last year.  I just think that Sheary was pretty bad for most of the year too, and that the difference between the 2 is not significant—and certainly not substantial enough to justify the anguish around here regarding playing one vs the other on line 2.

As for whether JB should’ve brought in another good forward — I know I’d be happier right now if he had traded Risto for, say, Ehlers.  But I don’t think that caliber of player was available for Risto, and I wouldn’t have been happy if he had traded Risto or other valuable assets for a lesser return.  A good FA forward on a good contact (like Mojo)?  Sure, but that guy has to be available and willing to come here.   

He had more than 2.5 times the points, in a down year. 14 goals to 5. It matters. 

[Andrew Amerk]

I can’t believe we are even talking about this. All the spin about competition, and the best players earning their spots, and here we are with Sobotka on the team. With a promotion, no less. And Okposo on the team, although the reasons are more muddied. 

[Thorner]

People realize that Conor Sheary had 50 points in a season just as recently as Johansson, right? People are ready to anoint Mojo the 2C, yet Sheary is now somehow as bad as Vladimir Sobotka.

He had the same amount of points as Vesey last year. Vesey is supposed be a big help this year and represent improvement, but Sheary sucks.

Sheary is also still only 27, and Sobotka 32. Sheary has actual, real life bounce back potential in a scoring role, and that's much less likely than a 32 year old Vlad reversing his steep trend.

Edited October 2, 2019 by Thorny

[nfreeman]

13 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So the answer as the GM is just, "Well, couldn't do it, maybe next year!"? At what point are results mandated on the ice? When the bar is Sobotka low, and even THAT can't be improved upon, what is even going on?

JB is 100% accountable for the results on the ice.  If they stink again this year, I will be fine with firing him, although if they show real improvement that doesn’t get into the playoffs I will probably be against it   

 

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

He had more than 2.5 times the points, in a down year. 14 goals to 5. It matters. 

Sheary had 2 5-on-5 goals and 1 ENG in a 46-game stretch between Nov 10 and the end of February.  That is a terrible season, regardless of whether he added some numbers during garbage time.  

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

JB is 100% accountable for the results on the ice.  If they stink again this year, I will be fine with firing him, although if they show real improvement that doesn’t get into the playoffs I will probably be against it   

 

Sheary had 2 5-on-5 goals and 1 ENG in a 46-game stretch between Nov 10 and the end of February.  That is a terrible season, regardless of whether he added some numbers during garbage time.  

He had 4 more points in that terrible stretch alone than Vlad had all season long. 

- - - 

Vesey had 8 assists in his last 47 games. You can find these types of stats often in players with ~ 30-40 points

Edited October 2, 2019 by Thorny

[irregularly irregular]

We will not see the roster that the Sabre's ice until 01Nov at the earliest. There will be changes and adjustments. Enjoy the hockey to the best of your ability in the meantime. Don't let this this short period of time ruin your life or your love of the Sabre's. 

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

It's the same as the difference between a replacement level player, and a good one. Sheary isn't quite "good", but Sobotka is below replacement. I think it matters. 

As @Taro T always says, he is an offensive black hole. Pairing him with your 9 million dollar winger, after getting him to that 9 mil by playing him with Jack all year the year before, seems extremely sub-optimal. Especially considering how Skinner was scoring his goals: off Eichel rebounds. Don't fancy Vlad's shot as a replacement.

Like, if the answer to why Vladmir Sobotka is playing SECOND LINE RW (on his off-hand, mind you) is that "there's no one much better", that's a vicious indictment in and of itself counter argument be damned.

Again, if the answer is " Vladimir Sobotka" somebody asked the wrong ####### question.

Sobotka never particularly had hands, but his hands have deteriorated from where they were.  His situation is extremely analogous to Moulson's.  Matt never had speed, but had hands and his hands probably didn't deteriorate much.  But his speed got so bad, he could never help out at either end.  Sobotka's hands were there last year.  (Meaning they'd deteriorated similarly.) And there have been no indications that they improved this off season.

People complained that the Moulson analogy was a straw man, but only because their non-material skills that had kept them from becoming elite was different.  They both have had that skill deteriorate below NHL quality and their other skills can't make up for it.

Neither one of those guys was/is a Bobby Carpenter that had so much speed he could transition his game from goal scorer to defensive forward extraordinaire when his hands started to fade.

And honestly, not sure why there's any debate about this.  The eye test guys hate his game and the analytics guys hate his game.  What's left other than he brews a mean espresso?

[Zamboni]

Yikes. I think Sheary is a good 3rd liner. I choose to believe a lot of the players who had poor years under Housley was because of Housley and his terrible system and horrible in game adjustments. I hope RK can squeeze more from them. 

[Marions Piazza]

8 hours ago, oregelbundet oregelbunden said:

We will not see the roster that the Sabre's ice until 01Nov at the earliest. There will be changes and adjustments. Enjoy the hockey to the best of your ability in the meantime. Don't let this this short period of time ruin your life or your love of the Sabre's. 

Unfortunately the last 6-7 years have been ruining my love for the Sabres but it hasn't consumed my life lol. I have been trending towards apathy, neat if they win and whatever when they lose. Last years epic collapse post November did a number on me. I haven't renewed my NHL app yet, taking the fair weather approach and I hate to admit that but as mentioned by many others, the lineup doesn't inspire confidence that this team will be anything above 79-83 points as their ceiling.

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I think Sheary last year was at or below replacement level.  Not materially better than Sobotka.  

Okay well this is just flat out wrong according to any metric you want to use. 

9 hours ago, Thorny said:

He had 4 more points in that terrible stretch alone than Vlad had all season long. 

- - - 

Vesey had 8 assists in his last 47 games. You can find these types of stats often in players with ~ 30-40 points

The fact this is even a debate is as sad as Sob playing hockey. 

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, oregelbundet oregelbunden said:

We will not see the roster that the Sabre's ice until 01Nov at the earliest. There will be changes and adjustments. Enjoy the hockey to the best of your ability in the meantime. Don't let this this short period of time ruin your life or your love of the Sabre's. 

Then we aren't going to make the playoffs. 

[irregularly irregular]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Then we aren't going to make the playoffs. 

I doubt there are many here that are anticipating a playoff series for the Sabre's this year. Let us hope that we are proven wrong.

[...]

19 minutes ago, oregelbundet oregelbunden said:

I doubt there are many here that are anticipating a playoff series for the Sabre's this year. Let us hope that we are proven wrong.

As is, if the stars and Moon cooperate, they could be a bubble team.  If Botterill had done his job over the summer, they certainly would be a bubble team.

[WildCard]

18 hours ago, Derrico said:

My two thoughts?  We are one friggen RW  2C away from having a decent forward group.

FTFY

[triumph_communes]

Sobotka has been a tire-fire at center, but he hasn't really played winger for us much.  Maybe he just isn't quite the drag at wing?  Ya'll are so damn negative.  It's getting as bad as HFBoards over here all of a sudden

[WildCard]

2 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Sobotka has been a tire-fire at center, but he hasn't really played winger for us much.  Maybe he just isn't quite the drag at wing?  Ya'll are so damn negative.  It's getting as bad as HFBoards over here all of a sudden

I mean we have, objectively, a bottom 5 player in the league playing on our 2nd line, a year after watching just how bad he is. Not sure what you were expecting lol

[triumph_communes]

2 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I mean we have, objectively, a bottom 5 player in the league playing on our 2nd line, a year after watching just how bad he is. Not sure what you were expecting lol

Who is playing a different position than when he was a bottom 5 player, and is playing with a guy who plays his own game anyway, and a center most fans here have no experience watching at all either.  All under a new coach with a simpler system, that may just address that player's main problems in the first place.  He played for bad coaches in St Louis too, which mind you, was a team that was DEAD LAST last season until they had a coaching change literally turn the team around into a cup finish.
 

Personally, I see Sobotka's spot, and Rodrigues as the extra, being a quick swap a few games in as whatever the hell was going wrong with Rodrigues in pre-season quells, and Sobotka's real-game flaws become more apparent to the new coach.

Edited October 2, 2019 by triumph_communes