The Krueger Crux? "Not thinking out there"

[dudacek]

31 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Should call this the overreaction thread. Let's see where they are next Monday. I bet lines will change a lot. 

I think that Krueger is trying this because he hopes it works. If it does the Sabres will be better for it.

But your point is correct. Training camp is for trying things.

[LGR4GM]

41 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Who’s overreacting? 

I’ve already illustrated that half of Jack’s wingers were the same day one of camp last year as they were regular season game 1, and both his wingers from preseason game 2 lined up to start the season with him. 

There’s a HIGH likelihood one of Vesey and Sheary is there and a fair chance it’s both. At least worthy of discussion and not a random overreaction. 

And Phil Housley was the coach then so that makes training camp last year completely irrelevant. 

I think there's almost 0 chance both are his wingers to start the season. 

[LGR4GM]

Let's play this out 

vesey eichel sheary

Skinner erod Lazar 

Smith Mitts Reinhart

Olofsson asplund Johansson 

That's what we think the starting lineup will be? Come on now. Wait until next week and let's see if it sticks. Then we can really start to wonder. 

[LGR4GM]

Let's just talk about that 4th line. Olofsson Asplund and Johansson. That's clearly together because why? You have 1 true rookie, a tweener hoping to break through, and established nhl vet. It's obvious, they are all swedish and at various career levels so it helps everyone adapt and get comfortable. The chances of that being an actual line are slim to none. Olofsson isn't going to get 4th line grinder minutes with that shot. Just 1 example. Wait until next week when cuts start happening. 

[Thorner]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

And Phil Housley was the coach then so that makes training camp last year completely irrelevant. 

I think there's almost 0 chance both are his wingers to start the season. 

It's certainly not irrelevant, it may give an indication for how soon at least 1 coach decided to put together some "real" combos. Will that be the same with Krueger? Who knows, but calling it an over reaction makes no sense to me. 

If that's the case it's just as much of an over reaction to say these pairings mean very little. 

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Let's play this out 

vesey eichel sheary

Skinner erod Lazar 

Smith Mitts Reinhart

Olofsson asplund Johansson 

That's what we think the starting lineup will be? Come on now. Wait until next week and let's see if it sticks. Then we can really start to wonder. 

Who thinks that? I did a detailed breakdown of how I think the lines could shake out in the training camp thread. 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Thorny said:

It's certainly not irrelevant, it may give an indication for how soon at least 1 coach decided to put together some "real" combos. Will that be the same with Krueger? Who knows, but calling it an over reaction makes no sense to me. 

If that's the case it's just as much of an over reaction to say these pairings mean very little. 

Very little indicates an under-reaction

[LGR4GM]

Yes you're overeacting to line combos. Hell in another thread you responded to a post where 3 of the above 4 lines are different. Wait and see what they look like next week. 

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It's certainly not irrelevant, it may give an indication for how soon at least 1 coach decided to put 

Who thinks that? I did a detailed breakdown of how I think the lines could shake out in the training camp thread. 

You did and yet you're so focused on the eichel line right now. Wait a second and let's see what happens. That lineup I copied came from the athletic after practice yesterday. 

Also yes it is irrelevant. Krueger isn't Housley

Edited September 16, 2019 by LGR4GM

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Yes you're overeating to line combos. Hell in another thread you responded to a post where 3 of the above 4 lines are different. Wait and see what they look like next week. 

First part of that bolded, what?

Second part, ok. No further discussion from me on line combos until next week. I apologize. 

Edited September 16, 2019 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Thorny said:

First part of that bolded, what?

Second part, ok, no further discussion from me on line combos until next week. I apologize. 

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying relax on them, they are bound to change. 

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

If Sheary Eichel Vesey becomes a thing that lasts, what does it need to do to be considered a success?

Combine for 70-80 goals?

The above, plus the middle six scoring significantly more than last year?

Win more games? A lot more?

Success for the team? or for that line? That line can be successful while the team is losing. If Jack is a top 10-15 scoring center, and Vesey and Sheary don't look like plugs that make you think you're not getting the most out of Jack, and pace near their career highs, then it will be successful as a line regardless of what everyone else is doing. If they're doing that AND the rest of the team is floundering, then we're screwed, because the whole point of that line is to bolster lower lines with Reinhart and Skinner and Johansson etc.

[LGR4GM]

There's ppl on this forum, not necessarily you, that are ready to throw Krueger out and we don't even have a finalized roster yet. 

[Randall Flagg]

26 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Let's play this out 

vesey eichel sheary

Skinner erod Lazar 

Smith Mitts Reinhart

Olofsson asplund Johansson 

That's what we think the starting lineup will be? Come on now. Wait until next week and let's see if it sticks. Then we can really start to wonder. 

I'm gonna be quite honest here, if they did this, I'd be less angry than I was about 60 nights last season! 

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Success for the team? or for that line? That line can be successful while the team is losing. If Jack is a top 10-15 scoring center, and Vesey and Sheary don't look like plugs that make you think you're not getting the most out of Jack, and pace near their career highs, then it will be successful as a line regardless of what everyone else is doing. If they're doing that AND the rest of the team is floundering, then we're screwed, because the whole point of that line is to bolster lower lines with Reinhart and Skinner and Johansson etc.

 

Krueger: "I'm going to try Eichel/Sheary/Vesey

Some Sabrespacers: "That's a terrible idea. Jack has to play with better players"

Me: "What would that line have to do to change your mind?"

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

 

Krueger: "I'm going to try Eichel/Sheary/Vesey

Some Sabrespacers: "That's a terrible idea. Jack has to play with better players"

Me: "What would that line have to do to change your mind?"

I think Flagg answered that question. It's about team performance. Of course we need to see that line actually play hockey well together to know it's a smart idea, but the rest of the team succeeding also must be a pre-requisite for a successful combo because the whole point in breaking them up in the first place is to stimulate the rest of the line up. 

[LGR4GM]

I thought about what I was trying to say. I think we should look at what we think the lines should be and who will work well together and not worry about how Krueger currently has the lines. I hope that makes sense. Either way carry on, didn't mean to derail things as much and probably overreaction was a bad word choice. 

[Randall Flagg]

26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

Krueger: "I'm going to try Eichel/Sheary/Vesey

Some Sabrespacers: "That's a terrible idea. Jack has to play with better players"

Me: "What would that line have to do to change your mind?"

Ah. Then like I said, win their matchups, which would surely entail significant even strength production from the three, particularly Jack, with visual evidence confirming that we aren't holding our franchise center back in a meaningful way. 

I think there's less than a five percent chance that combination of players is capable of that. (Because of how incapable Sheary was at scoring with Jack at even strength last season, outlined in my other post)

Edited September 16, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

17 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I think Flagg answered that question. It's about team performance. Of course we need to see that line actually play hockey well together to know it's a smart idea, but the rest of the team succeeding also must be a pre-requisite for a successful combo because the whole point in breaking them up in the first place is to stimulate the rest of the line up. 

So this was last year's top 9:

Skinner 40 Eichel 28 Reinhart 22

Sheary 14 Mittelstadt 12 Pominville 16

ERoD 9 Sobotka 5 Okposo 14

 

Our assumption is breaking up the big three will hurt their totals and buoy the totals of their new linemates, so this would conceivably be an improvement, no?

Vesey 24, Eichel 25, Sheary 22

Skinner 32 ERod 14 Johansson 16

Olofsson 18 Mittelstadt 15 Reinhart 18

[Thorner]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So this was last year's top 9:

Skinner 40 Eichel 28 Reinhart 22

Sheary 14 Mittelstadt 12 Pominville 16

ERoD 9 Sobotka 5 Okposo 14

 

Our assumption is breaking up the big three will hurt their totals and buoy the totals of their new linemates, so this would conceivably be an improvement, no?

Vesey 24, Eichel 25, Sheary 22

Skinner 32 ERod 14 Johansson 16

Olofsson 18 Mittelstadt 15 Reinhart 18

Yup.To the tune of 24 goals by my math, in that conceived scenario. But I'm not sure that Skinner would score 32 with E-Rod. 

I bump him up to line 1, take the extra 8 goals he'll score, take the 8 less from Vesey he'd get on line 2, but take the improved possession numbers that would accompany Skinner moving up (and therefore less pucks in the back of our net). Considering how much attention Eichel is going to draw regardless, my bet is the amount that second line surrenders defensively by having Vesey there instead of Skinner would be < the defensive gains the top line would see with Skinner there, again, considering matchups. 

That's all theory. 

Edited September 16, 2019 by Thorny

[7+6=13]

I have a real good feeling Krueger is the coach we've been hoping for.