Highest Scoring Defensemen in 2019-20

[Randall Flagg]

Who do you think will lead NHL defenders in scoring this coming season? And will our man, Rasmus Dahlin, make an appearance at the top of this list? I'm going to list my predictions for the top 10.

1.) John Klingberg - 79 points
2.) Tyson Barrie - 77 points
3.) John Carlson - 73 points
4.) Brent Burns - 70 points
5.) Victor Hedman - 68 points
6.) Thomas Chabot - 65 points
7.) Morgan Rielly - 63 points
8.) Roman Josi - 61 points
9.) Seth Jones - 60 points
10.) Erik Karlsson - 59 points (injuries)

Honorable mentions to Dahlin, Gustafsson from Chicago, Letang, Dumba, Yandle, Heiskanen. I think Dahlin finishes around 55 points. I think Giordano falls off a bit.

Edited September 3, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[StuckinFL]

I actually think he'll hit about 65. I think he's going to see substantial time on PP1 and with the way the way the team is constructed I expect a 5 man attack that will funnel him a ton of points. 

[LGR4GM]

I would expect Dahlin to be on that list. 

[Derrico]

Not one but two leaf D in the top 10.  I presume Barrie and Reilly are opposite hands and both will be running on PP1?  Don’t they go 4 forwards? 

[GASabresIUFAN]

  On 9/3/2019 at 4:32 PM, Randall Flagg said:

Who do you think will lead NHL defenders in scoring this coming season? And will our man, Rasmus Dahlin, make an appearance at the top of this list? I'm going to list my predictions for the top 10.

1.) John Klingberg - 79 points
2.) Tyson Barrie - 77 points
3.) John Carlson - 73 points
4.) Brent Burns - 70 points
5.) Victor Hedman - 68 points
6.) Thomas Chabot - 65 points
7.) Morgan Rielly - 63 points
8.) Roman Josi - 61 points
9.) Seth Jones - 60 points
10.) Erik Karlsson - 59 points (injuries)

Honorable mentions to Dahlin, Gustafsson from Chicago, Letang, Dumba, Yandle, Heiskanen. I think Dahlin finishes around 55 points. I think Giordano falls off a bit.

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Barrie’s career high is 59 pts, that’s a huge jump for an established player.  Also Hedman has been going the other way the last 2 seasons after hitting a career high 72 3 years ago.  He’s gone 63 then 54 last year.

I also expect Dahlin to make a hug jump this year as he takes over the 1st power play.  55 is very reasonable but I think we’ll see 60+ if our team is at least decent.

Edited September 3, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

I'm going to say Brent Burns leads the NHL in D scoring again.  If not him, I think John Carlson is a good bet. 

I expect Dahlin to be in the 50-60 point range.  I would not be surprised if he was on the back half of the top 10 list.

[LGR4GM]

Barrie had half of his assists on the PP. I am going to guess he drop from 59points to maybe 49 points as his pp is reduced. I don't believe he will get 77 points as a 28yr old. That would be a career year and a 24% increase in his offense, I just don't see it. 

[LGR4GM]

  On 9/3/2019 at 4:32 PM, Randall Flagg said:

Who do you think will lead NHL defenders in scoring this coming season? And will our man, Rasmus Dahlin, make an appearance at the top of this list? I'm going to list my predictions for the top 10.
 

Honorable mentions to Dahlin, Gustafsson from Chicago, Letang, Dumba, Yandle, Heiskanen. I think Dahlin finishes around 55 points. I think Giordano falls off a bit.

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1. Brent Burns - 73 points
2. John Klingberg - 70 points
3. Morgan Rielly - 68 points
4. John Carlson - 67 points
5. Thomas Chabot - 65 points
6. Victor Hedman - 64 points
7. Rasmus Dahlin - 62 points
8. Erik Karlsson - 59 points (injuries)
9. Roman Josi - 58 points
10. Seth Jones - 55 points
11. Tyson Barrie - 49 points
12. Miro Heiskanen - 46 points

I readjusted your points because I think some of them were high. A bunch of guys were being given career years at ages that it seems unlikely for them to do that. At the end of the day though, who knows? 

[dudacek]

  On 9/3/2019 at 4:32 PM, Randall Flagg said:

Who do you think will lead NHL defenders in scoring this coming season? And will our man, Rasmus Dahlin, make an appearance at the top of this list? I'm going to list my predictions for the top 10.

1.) John Klingberg - 79 points
2.) Tyson Barrie - 77 points
3.) John Carlson - 73 points
4.) Brent Burns - 70 points
5.) Victor Hedman - 68 points
6.) Thomas Chabot - 65 points
7.) Morgan Rielly - 63 points
8.) Roman Josi - 61 points
9.) Seth Jones - 60 points
10.) Erik Karlsson - 59 points (injuries)

Honorable mentions to Dahlin, Gustafsson from Chicago, Letang, Dumba, Yandle, Heiskanen. I think Dahlin finishes around 55 points. I think Giordano falls off a bit.

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I think Barrie and Klingberg are more likely to hit 60 than 70, let alone close to 80.

Krug, Giordano and Werenski (assuming he signs quickly) would be adds for me ahead of those two.

[Randall Flagg]

  On 9/3/2019 at 6:55 PM, dudacek said:

I think Barrie and Klingberg are more likely to hit 60 than 70, let alone close to 80.

Krug, Giordano and Werenski (assuming he signs quickly) would be adds for me ahead of those two.

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Dallas' depth was worse than ours last year, and added Joe Pavelski - I think Dallas is going to score a lotta goals. 

And Barrie is fitting into a team that plays exactly the same way he plays for the first time in his career. He's going to steal the first power play unit from Rielly, and he's going to score a butt ton of points. He's a more talented offensive defenseman than even Rielly IMO. However, I recognize that the totals between them are probably at least 20 points too high. I guess I'd predict each of those guys with those point totals if the other one didn't exist. 

But I really think Toronto is devastating offensively so that's where that comes from.

  On 9/3/2019 at 5:40 PM, LGR4GM said:

1. Brent Burns - 73 points
2. John Klingberg - 70 points
3. Morgan Rielly - 68 points
4. John Carlson - 67 points
5. Thomas Chabot - 65 points
6. Victor Hedman - 64 points
7. Rasmus Dahlin - 62 points
8. Erik Karlsson - 59 points (injuries)
9. Roman Josi - 58 points
10. Seth Jones - 55 points
11. Tyson Barrie - 49 points
12. Miro Heiskanen - 46 points

I readjusted your points because I think some of them were high. A bunch of guys were being given career years at ages that it seems unlikely for them to do that. At the end of the day though, who knows? 

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These are incredibly realistic - I'm hoping for the offensive explosion of last season to not only keep going, but get bigger! 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Dahlin - 77 points

All the rest ...

[Randall Flagg]

  On 9/3/2019 at 5:30 PM, LGR4GM said:

Barrie had half of his assists on the PP. I am going to guess he drop from 59points to maybe 49 points as his pp is reduced. I don't believe he will get 77 points as a 28yr old. That would be a career year and a 24% increase in his offense, I just don't see it. 

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My justification is that Rielly's offense jumped 38% from his career best last season, and I think Barrie is even better at the role that gave Rielly that jump than Rielly is, so I think he's going to steal it.

Which really does mean that I should have dropped Rielly more than I did, but the list is published now!!

[Derrico]

  On 9/3/2019 at 5:30 PM, LGR4GM said:

Barrie had half of his assists on the PP. I am going to guess he drop from 59points to maybe 49 points as his pp is reduced. I don't believe he will get 77 points as a 28yr old. That would be a career year and a 24% increase in his offense, I just don't see it. 

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Ya I would bet closer to 49 than 77 as well.

[LGR4GM]

  On 9/3/2019 at 9:22 PM, Randall Flagg said:

My justification is that Rielly's offense jumped 38% from his career best last season, and I think Barrie is even better at the role that gave Rielly that jump than Rielly is, so I think he's going to steal it.

Which really does mean that I should have dropped Rielly more than I did, but the list is published now!!

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Age curves and breakout seasons. Barrie having a career breakout year at 28 it less likely than Rielly having a career year at 25. Barrie has been a 50 point defender for several years. Reilly is in the upswing of the age curve compared to Barrie's downswing. This uses WAR but I think it still applies fairly well. In addition I want to add that Barrie will not be top dog on the pp and at best will split time with Rielly. It will most likely impact his numbers. To ask a guy who scores regularly about 50 points to add that much offense is unlikely given all those factors. Rielly's jump that you mention makes sense as he hasn't hit his plateau (he might have just done that) and so we could expect those jumps. 

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/

Edited September 4, 2019 by LGR4GM

[Randall Flagg]

  On 9/4/2019 at 12:16 PM, LGR4GM said:

Age curves and breakout seasons. Barrie having a career breakout year at 28 it less likely than Rielly having a career year at 25. Barrie has been a 50 point defender for several years. Reilly is in the upswing of the age curve compared to Barrie's downswing. This uses WAR but I think it still applies fairly well. In addition I want to add that Barrie will not be top dog on the pp and at best will split time with Rielly. It will most likely impact his numbers. To ask a guy who scores regularly about 50 points to add that much offense is unlikely given all those factors. Rielly's jump that you mention makes sense as he hasn't hit his plateau (he might have just done that) and so we could expect those jumps. 

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/

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Sure it's less likely, but Barrie is still an elite offensive driver, is only 28, and is entering an offense a couple levels above his old one, which really just consisted of 3 forwards passing between each other and the rest of the team being completely mediocre. It's also completely unlikely that Pavelski had the season he had at his age, or Sid, or Pat Kane for that matter.

The age curve seems to matter less and less the more you can play, and Tyson can play, at least offensively.

[LGR4GM]

  On 9/4/2019 at 3:14 PM, Randall Flagg said:

Sure it's less likely, but Barrie is still an elite offensive driver, is only 28, and is entering an offense a couple levels above his old one, which really just consisted of 3 forwards passing between each other and the rest of the team being completely mediocre. It's also completely unlikely that Pavelski had the season he had at his age, or Sid, or Pat Kane for that matter.

The age curve seems to matter less and less the more you can play, and Tyson can play, at least offensively.

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Each of those examples was a forward. 1 of those forwards is the best of his generation. The other is probably the best winger of his generation. Neither of them greatly over-produced compared to other career years. Crosby actually didn't even have his best year. Pavelski was almost exactly at his points average. 

Barrie isn't getting 77 points. It just isn't going to happen. 

I want to add even if Crosby was over what he had done very recently, he still outproduced his norm last year. So lets look at Barrie, he outproduced his norm. Like Crosby I would expect Barrie to regress some not suddenly get 20 more points. Crosby is highly unlikely to put up 120 this season. 

[LGR4GM]

P Kane did have a career year. But I would not expect him to come close to repeating that. I think Barrie had a career year and I think he will drop down into the low 50's high 40's which is usually where he sits. 

[Randall Flagg]

  On 9/4/2019 at 3:23 PM, LGR4GM said:

Each of those examples was a forward. 1 of those forwards is the best of his generation. The other is probably the best winger of his generation. Neither of them greatly over-produced compared to other career years. Crosby actually didn't even have his best year. Pavelski was almost exactly at his points average. 

Barrie isn't getting 77 points. It just isn't going to happen. 

I want to add even if Crosby was over what he had done very recently, he still outproduced his norm last year. So lets look at Barrie, he outproduced his norm. Like Crosby I would expect Barrie to regress some not suddenly get 20 more points. Crosby is highly unlikely to put up 120 this season. 

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But do you think going to a top 3 offense in the league, if he can win a role I believe he's going to win, would not produce a statistical jump? 

It's certainly not going to decline. 

[LGR4GM]

  On 9/4/2019 at 3:31 PM, Randall Flagg said:

But do you think going to a top 3 offense in the league, if he can win a role I believe he's going to win, would not produce a statistical jump? 

It's certainly not going to decline. 

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No, because he already played with a team that had a stacked top line which helped him generate those PP numbers. Rielly isn't just going to go away either.

I think he will.

Edited September 4, 2019 by LGR4GM

[Randall Flagg]

The season before this past one he scored at a 69 point rate (missed games due to injury) on a team whose superstar forward line propelled their team to 255 goals. He's going to a team that last year scored more than 30 goals more than that. He's 28, not 32. And your point about those being forwards remains a good one - Defenders appear to stay at their peak at later ages than forwards do, from everything I've ever seen and heard talked about. 

Rielly's not going away, but he's not as skilled of an offensive defenseman as Tyson Barrie, who will take over that role, as Babs knows how flawed he is defensively and how comparatively good Rielly is in his own zone. He is going to score more than 59 points if he plays 82 games, and it might be more than a ten point increase depending on how quickly he can steal the #1PP. 

[Randall Flagg]

The guy named Dom with the long last name just used a model of his to predict defensemen point totals for next year, these were his results: 

[TrueBlueGED]

  On 9/4/2019 at 4:44 PM, Randall Flagg said:

The season before this past one he scored at a 69 point rate (missed games due to injury) on a team whose superstar forward line propelled their team to 255 goals. He's going to a team that last year scored more than 30 goals more than that. He's 28, not 32. And your point about those being forwards remains a good one - Defenders appear to stay at their peak at later ages than forwards do, from everything I've ever seen and heard talked about. 

Rielly's not going away, but he's not as skilled of an offensive defenseman as Tyson Barrie, who will take over that role, as Babs knows how flawed he is defensively and how comparatively good Rielly is in his own zone. He is going to score more than 59 points if he plays 82 games, and it might be more than a ten point increase depending on how quickly he can steal the #1PP. 

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So you think Barrie is Gragnani-esque defensively? Because Rielly is baaaaaad in his own zone. 

[Randall Flagg]

  On 9/5/2019 at 7:13 PM, TrueBlueGED said:

So you think Barrie is Gragnani-esque defensively? Because Rielly is baaaaaad in his own zone. 

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From what I've seen, Barrie is pretty useless there, and Rielly took steps last year. So yes, that's my take. I'm excited to see Tyson more this year since he's in the east, and I'm happy to eat crow in this thread if things don't turn out the way I expected. Because I want the Leafs to suk 

[TrueBlueGED]

  On 9/5/2019 at 7:17 PM, Randall Flagg said:

From what I've seen, Barrie is pretty useless there, and Rielly took steps last year. So yes, that's my take. I'm excited to see Tyson more this year since he's in the east, and I'm happy to eat crow in this thread if things don't turn out the way I expected. Because I want the Leafs to suk 

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I agree with you on Barrie, I think he's going to be pretty great in Toronto. I just don't think he's meaningfully worse than Rielly defensively (a low bar, admittedly).

[dudacek]

  On 9/5/2019 at 6:57 PM, Randall Flagg said:

The guy named Dom with the long last name just used a model of his to predict defensemen point totals for next year, these were his results: 

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I’d like to have more information about the portability of analytics; ie, how constant are they from situation to situation when a player switches to a new coach, or a new team?

For example, Randall expects Barrie’s points to climb because he is in a “better” situation in Toronto. Can we make similar suppositions about analytics? 

Its my understanding that analytics like Corsi and WOWY measure not how “good” a player is, but how effective his team was while he was being used in the situations he was being used in. Therefore, I am expecting Colin Miller to have worse analytics as a 2nd pairing guy in Buffalo than he did as a 3rd pairing guy in Vegas.

Can anyone expand on that for me?

Edited September 5, 2019 by dudacek