Does Risto want out?

[Randall Flagg]

8 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I respectfully disagree. Putting aside the players value.....Turris fills our hole at 2C just as much as Risto fills the hole left by Subban, very little. Dislike Turris being acquired and would rather keep Risto. Other than that, Nash would have to add, so yes I actually agree with you on player value.

The man just put up an abysmal season as a floater who was disinterested in doing anything but let his teammates get him the puck (their fans' words en masse, not mine) and has an Okposo-like contract, only it goes a year longer than Kyle's. He hit a sharp decline at 29, is turning 30, and doesn't have the type of skating that tends to "suddenly come back." There's no way this guy has trade value, and if Nashville wanted to dump him, they'd have to sweeten the pot

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

Any recommendations for specific videos? If not, I can hit youtube later this week and find some. 

I was originally going to do something with our team defense this summer, but I rapidly became overwhelmed when watching games and was incapable of seeing anything good or bad that I could really pin down as unique or a problem 

Here's a few posts from the earlier in the season where I did a breakdown of some goals against....  spoiler alert: Risto's lack of awareness is a recurring theme.

 

 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

19 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The man just put up an abysmal season as a floater who was disinterested in doing anything but let his teammates get him the puck (their fans' words en masse, not mine) and has an Okposo-like contract, only it goes a year longer than Kyle's. He hit a sharp decline at 29, is turning 30, and doesn't have the type of skating that tends to "suddenly come back." There's no way this guy has trade value, and if Nashville wanted to dump him, they'd have to sweeten the pot

I ultimately agreed with you in the end. But I don't think the trade fills either teams needs is basically what I was getting at. Never liked Turris from the beginning really. Didn't hate him either, JAG.

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The man just put up an abysmal season as a floater who was disinterested in doing anything but let his teammates get him the puck (their fans' words en masse, not mine) and has an Okposo-like contract, only it goes a year longer than Kyle's. He hit a sharp decline at 29, is turning 30, and doesn't have the type of skating that tends to "suddenly come back." There's no way this guy has trade value, and if Nashville wanted to dump him, they'd have to sweeten the pot

The Turris I am remembering (and I didn’t watch him much last year) was the type of skater to play into his 30s.

Last year’s Turris sharp decline came after he broke his foot. He had 58 points in 88 games with Nashville prior to breaking his foot, 8 points in 25 games after. He got 10 points in 10 games as Canada’s captain in the World championships.

There is no doubt the contract is risky. But is he really bad, or did he just hit a bump?

 

To be clear, I don’t want Turris, it’s just when I look around the league for players who might be able to play 2nd line centre and also might be readily available, His is a name I keep coming back to. I think he is a definite Plan B option. Especially given @tom websteris tidbit about our interest and Botterill’s association with him on Team Canada.

I keep bringing him up because I am trying to get a handle on what he might cost.

[Randall Flagg]

27 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The Turris I am remembering (and I didn’t watch him much last year) was the type of skater to play into his 30s.

Last year’s Turris sharp decline came after he broke his foot. He had 58 points in 88 games with Nashville prior to breaking his foot, 8 points in 25 games after. He got 10 points in 10 games as Canada’s captain in the World championships.

There is no doubt the contract is risky. But is he really bad, or did he just hit a bump?

To be clear, I don’t want Turris, it’s just when I look around the league for players who might be able to play 2nd line centre and also might be readily available, His is a name I keep coming back to. I think he is a definite Plan B option. Especially given @tom websteris tidbit about our interest and Botterill’s association with him on Team Canada.

I keep bringing him up because I am trying to get a handle on what he might cost.

Points shmoints. 

Bottom line, my opinion as scattered about in the other threads, is that I just don't see Turris as the "answer" for the next 5 years. Not as 2C on a contender, not as 2C on a contender which doesn't have a "superstar" 1C ahead of him, anyway. We need our 2nd line to be a real threat. Even if he bounces back to 20ish goals or 50ish points, he's a bit weak from anything I've seen. I think we can do better for $6M of cap space. The value of the cap space he represents outweighs any concern I'd have about getting anything back in a trade for him.

"I don't find that what Turris did in his previous season before the injury is really all that different than what any of these other guys might have done, PP scoring aside. And of course Turris vanished completely in the playoffs in 2018 too. That to me was really when he stepped into the abyss, pre-dating this season and whatever injury excuses might be attached. 

His first regular season was ok-ish and his first playoff was abysmal. Then his whole second season was abysmal. 

Do we think he can step up his performance to something more like his best Ottawa numbers? I don't know - are we going to play him 19:30 a game instead of 16 mins and put him on a line with Mark Stone? I'm guessing we aren't. In which case... I don't feel like we have a lot of reason to expect more from him than we've seen so far. And that isn't much different than our Plan C guys behind him. 

If I wanted a soft C who doesn't really drive the play... he doesn't look that much different than Jarnkrok. And if Jarnkrok was on a 6x$6M contract he'd probably have a thread like this here too."

"ive been watching turris at the worlds whenever Canada is on NHL network (3 games I've watched) and this isn't just me trying to be typical me but he has been soft as ever during board battles. he just isn't an impact player. he will need granlund to really elevate his game on the wing (or some impact winger, nothing against my boy Craig smith) or it's going to be another long season of turris being the whipping boy and rightfully so."

"I think trading Turris is a pipe dream right now. You can blame injuries and perhaps that was a legitimate reason but with his contract I doubt teams are going to be willing to risk trading for him and hoping he bounces back."

"I guess I just don't see Turris putting up a 51-point season either short of leeching off basically the same things it would take those guys to do it. Give Jarnkrok a season with Granlund and Smith, give him 2nd unit PP time, and he probably scrapes together the same points Turris would. And our 2nd line will suck. And Jarnkrok will probably get killed. And all the same holds equally having Turris in that spot. Our scouts just missed the boat figuring that out because he was already leeching 1st line minutes off 1st line players in Ottawa and they got fooled. "

"He might have lost a step temporarily while his foot was still healing or something, but he seemed quick enough in the playoffs. Just ineffective. And I think he has always been scared to battle. Not a lot of players can go a full NHL season and get credited with just 10 hits. That's just who Turris is, nothing new on that front. "

"and as far as turris, no. i don't think he is scared to battle. he is just weak and can't win the battles. remind me of the brief time we have seen with tolvanen. good hockey sense but either won't go to the areas to create scoring chances or just gets pushed around when they are there. tolvanen is still a developing kid.. that's the big difference to me."

"Turris is just brutal in almost all aspects. He does not hit, shoot, pass or even backcheck well, his numbers prove that. I do not know what is going on with Kyle, but he is not worth $3 mill a season, let alone $6 mill. Second line centre is easily our biggest problem."

"I do think turris still holds some trade value, not even close to what we paid for him, but he could bet a third I would think, even with his contract. I worry if we decide to hold onto him another season and he’s awful again (likely), then we will never move him." (this guy appears to be the outlier, the way he's speaking - and fans overvalue their players more often than not, and he's talking Turris for "a third I would think")

"People need to pay attention to this. Turris is not 'back' because he scored against freaking Great Britian."

"ive watched 3 of their games(Worlds). turris is still weak on the puck and has trouble winning board battles against non NHL players. he's just too physically weak imo.

a passenger is the best way to put it even at the worlds against truly lesser competition."

"I'm hoping his play in the World Championships can up his value abit. Maybe Columbus will bite if they lose all of Duchene/Bobrovsky/Panarin, the return wouldnt be incredible but to move on from him would be good."

"here's his goal. the assist was the better play. a lot of these opportunities don't happen for turris on smaller ice against NHL competition.

anyone thinking he is going to be a big contributor on our 2nd line is fooling themselves. craig smith is the better option as a forward on a 2nd line and his motor is always running.

turris is useful on a 2nd PP unit off the halfboards and that's about it. with our anemic PP, he was really a skating dingleberry healthy or injured all year and i expect that to continue until he has more mass than a 16 year old boy."

"Just as useless as ever vs Liiga players rn. Trashing bad teams inflated his WC performance tenfold

We'll see if he can actually do something in the 3rd."

"I did not see Turris play any better towards the end of the season. They healthy scratched him and it didn't have any effect. Turris was spoon-fed 2nd line minutes and did nothing with them. The system? Maybe it was a problem and maybe not - I don't know what it is or how much blame to apportion to execution vs. design. I also did not see other players completely drop off the face of ice surface. If the system held them back a little, at least it didn't cripple them. So yeah, I think you can say Turris stunk, quite independent of all other factors. If those factors helped him stink even worse, ok, but there was stink already in abundance. Even at the end of 2018. I'm not for whitewashing the obvious on this one."

These views are the consensus in their Turris thread, which started in mid-May. The Preds' season was over. It's as consensus a view, from my reading so far, as any fanbase can be on any player. The one or two posters that express the possibility that he could turn it around cite no more than what dudacek does - points with no reference to gameplay, and vague generalities about how it (a turnaround) does happen sometimes. And even then, they do this 100% with the implication that they might then be able to dump him off and move on - not get something useful out of him on their team, none of them seem interested in this. This is alarming times ten. We should not be looking to add this player.

Considering this discussion is about possible Ristolainen returns, I can't fathom how any person, GM or otherwise, would accept this in a Risto trade, except on a salary-balancing thing with a much better piece attached. Even then....five more years. 

Again, points shmoints. Before Moulson went 0 for 14 games, his presence on the roster in 17-18 was justified by plenty of Sabre fans because he had over 30 points the season before, even though he was obviously shot. Fanbases of successful teams don't talk about important impact players on their teams like this, their description and the limited Turris I've seen is not something that will improve the things our Sabres need to improve in shift-in and shift-out hockey, they describe what would make the problem worse. It's not acceptable as a return for Ristolainen

[dudacek]

@Randall Flagg

OK, so you’ve reinforced the case as to why we shouldn’t get Turris, but that’s never really been my point.

My point is I think Botterill may be seriously considering Turris and I basically wondering if a scenario exists where we can mitigate the damage.

Turris for Okposo?

Turris and Tolvanen for Risto?

Turris 50 per cent retained for Sobotka, Scandella Or Bogosian?

What is deal that might actually help us?

Edited August 12, 2019 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

@Randall Flagg

OK, so you’ve reinforced the case as to why we shouldn’t get Turris, but that’s never really been my point.

My point is I think Botterill may be seriously considering Turris and I basically wondering if a scenario exists where we can mitigate the damage.

Turris for Okposo?

Turris and Tolvanen for Risto?

Turris 50 per cent retained for Sobotka, Scandella Or Bogosian?

What is deal that might actually help us?

A situation where we're expending time or assets to put Kyle Turris in as 2C (or really any spot, but you know if we do it it's for 2C) is not going to help us in all likelihood, and even if he bounced back and it sorta did for a bit, the contract still makes it a nonstarter when we have real assets that we can and should be moving for guys who can help the Sabres' second line succeed in this beast of a conference/division playing today's hockey

 

[darksabre]

I don't think Botterill wants Turris at all 

[Huckleberry]

16 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I don't think Botterill wants Turris at all 

Only way I trade for him if they take Okposo back straight up.

[dudacek]

31 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I don't think Botterill wants Turris at all 

Ease my fear. Why not?

[darksabre]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Ease my fear. Why not?

He expects the kids to step up and doesn't need that kind of contract hanging around. He just got rid of O'Reilly's contract. No point in undoing that with Turris. 

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, darksabre said:

He expects the kids to step up and doesn't need that kind of contract hanging around. He just got rid of O'Reilly's contract. No point in undoing that with Turris. 

Hope you're right and can really see the logic to it.

Could only see Botterill bringing him in if Okposo goes out &/or if Nashville retains 50% salary.  (No idea how an equitable trade gets worked out w/ Okposo involved.)

As long as they don't have more than 1 awful contract, Botts should be able to keep from getting handcuffed too bad moving forward.

[PerreaultForever]

Risto's a classic case of a player rushed along and developed improperly. A kid asked to be the number one guy logging huge minutes that destroyed his confidence followed by coaching/philosophical changes that leave him making poor decisions and unsure of his role. He should have been paired with a solid veteran and mentored slowly correcting aspects of his game step by step. Is it too late to bring him back? maybe. I'd give it a go though unless there is something special being offered our way. 

Give him a solid partner and keep them together. Decide on his role and enforce it. Make him into the solid 3/4 guy he can still be. Our D is new and has potential, but if we get rid of him it ain't all that yet. 

[mjd1001]

I read a lot about Risto getting too much ice time and if you cut it down by a few minutes a game, he'll be fine.  But in reality, how do you cut his ice time down that much?  A lot of his mistakes/weakness comes in even strength play...but his even strength ice time is not THAT much higher than everyone else. Last year, in his time with the Sabres Montour actually got more even strength ice time than Risto.  Bogo averaged only about 1 minute less and Dahlin was only about 1.5 minutes less. 

If you really want to get Risto down near or under 20 minutes per game, you have to significantly reduce his special team ice time. On the PK, only Bogo had more ice time per game than Risto...and on the PP, Risto was WAY out in front of everyone else (actually, Dahlin was close behind Risto, but then Risto was double anyone else.)

Personally, if he is still here, I'd get him off the PK totally.....limit him to 2nd team on the PP....and make sure Dahlin and his partner get more even strength ice time. That should about do it.  If after that he STILL has the worst +/- on the team and can't get the puck out of his own zone after another half season...then trade him for the bag of pucks.

Edited August 13, 2019 by mjd1001

[pi2000]

Can someone explain to me why he'll make better decisions if he gets fewer minutes?    

I've played my entire life and never once have I seen a player get better by playing less.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Risto's a classic case of a player rushed along and developed improperly. A kid asked to be the number one guy logging huge minutes that destroyed his confidence followed by coaching/philosophical changes that leave him making poor decisions and unsure of his role. He should have been paired with a solid veteran and mentored slowly correcting aspects of his game step by step. Is it too late to bring him back? maybe. I'd give it a go though unless there is something special being offered our way. 

Give him a solid partner and keep them together. Decide on his role and enforce it. Make him into the solid 3/4 guy he can still be. Our D is new and has potential, but if we get rid of him it ain't all that yet. 

If he drops to the 3/4 pairing, his ice time will be reduced a smidge vs 1st pairing.

Dahlin (most likely) or Montour will be the D man on the 1st PP & there's a legit chance the one thst's not on PP1 will QB PP2.  Which would also reduce Ristolainen's ice time by another couple of minutes.

Giving somebody else end of game duty further reduces it another minute.

He still gets a lot of PK as he doesn't run around when playing the box as opposed to what he does 5v5.

Now he's around 20 minutes / game and seeing easier usage.  He should stay fresh the entire season based on his conditioning & he should keep his head better as he will be getting beat less as well.

[Edit:  Oooops, meant to quote mjd's post.]

Edited August 13, 2019 by Taro T

[triumph_communes]

8 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Can someone explain to me why he'll make better decisions if he gets fewer minutes?    

I've played my entire life and never once have I seen a player get better by playing less.

 

He forms bad habits slinging pucks up the boards playing with idiot wingers who can’t get open and d partners who can’t catch a pass while playing too many minutes per night.  His only chance at getting rest is from nearly icing it. 

 

Hard habit to break but a new coach can do it. I bet he excels elsewhere. It’s on him if he gives Krueger a chance or not. 

[WildCard]

26 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

 

He forms bad habits slinging pucks up the boards playing with idiot wingers who can’t get open and d partners who can’t catch a pass while playing too many minutes per night.  His only chance at getting rest is from nearly icing it. 

 

Hard habit to break but a new coach can do it. I bet he excels elsewhere. It’s on him if he gives Krueger a chance or not. 

I would bet he usually gets good wingers. It's funny how Dahlin never has those issues 

Edited August 13, 2019 by WildCard

[nfreeman]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

Assuming Jason Botterill thinks Kyle Turris (sorry @TrueBlueGED) is a stopgap fit for us at 2C, what is the add for a Nashville deal to make sense? (Based on the idea they’d like Risto to slide into the hole left open by Subban.)

It's my problem, not yours, but I get more and more agitated each time you suggest this.

 

6 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

The man just put up an abysmal season as a floater who was disinterested in doing anything but let his teammates get him the puck (their fans' words en masse, not mine) and has an Okposo-like contract, only it goes a year longer than Kyle's. He hit a sharp decline at 29, is turning 30, and doesn't have the type of skating that tends to "suddenly come back." There's no way this guy has trade value, and if Nashville wanted to dump him, they'd have to sweeten the pot

And this is why!

 

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

Hope you're right and can really see the logic to it.

Could only see Botterill bringing him in if Okposo goes out &/or if Nashville retains 50% salary.  (No idea how an equitable trade gets worked out w/ Okposo involved.)

As long as they don't have more than 1 awful contract, Botts should be able to keep from getting handcuffed too bad moving forward.

Beat me to it.  One of those 2 components absolutely needs to be included, or I am a very firm NFW on Turris.

 

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

He can staple him to the 2nd pairing. 25pt, defensively meh Risto incoming.

At what point is it the players fault not the coach? If Krueger leaves will you say this again? Risto is responsible for his play. 

You mean if the worst is true and RK is a snake oil salesman who immediately makes it clear that he hasn't coached in the NHL in 6 years, is in miles over his head and sold JB a bill of goods, bringing JB down in flames with him?

 

[MattPie]

12 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

You mean if the worst is true and RK is a snake oil salesman who immediately makes it clear that he hasn't coached in the NHL in 6 years, is in miles over his head and sold JB a bill of goods, bringing JB down in flames with him?

 

I took it to mean in two years of top-10 spots (in the draft) and RK is shown the door, will Risto still have hope under coach number.. 5?

[Wyldnwoody44]

remember when we were pumped about risto and his tire flipping..... Now, this is what we're all seeing 

[matter2003]

7 hours ago, nfreeman said:

It's my problem, not yours, but I get more and more agitated each time you suggest this.

 

And this is why!

 

Beat me to it.  One of those 2 components absolutely needs to be included, or I am a very firm NFW on Turris.

 

You mean if the worst is true and RK is a snake oil salesman who immediately makes it clear that he hasn't coached in the NHL in 6 years, is in miles over his head and sold JB a bill of goods, bringing JB down in flames with him?

 

I think it's more likely that Kreuger does what he has always done his whole life no matter what he has tried...succeed 

[...]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

I think it's more likely that Kreuger does what he has always done his whole life no matter what he has tried...succeed 

What?  There is no room for optimism here.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

Jbot isn’t trading for Turris. He has Mitts, Asplund and Cozens coming up through the pipeline. What we need is someone to bridge the gap until Mitts or someone else proves ready.  Frankly, despite @inkman ‘s statements to the contrary, it’s possible Mitts could be ready for 2c duty despite his lack of success last season.  It’s not unusual for talented pros to take a leap forward in year 2 as Jack and Sam did.

This maybe why Jbot signed Johansson.  He could be betting on Mitts (again) but between ERod and Johansson (and even Reinhart) he may believe he has the insurance policies he needs on the roster.  

Instead his goal with Risto maybe to get a RW to play with Jack.  

[LTS]

21 hours ago, Taro T said:

Really seems more that he's impatient and that he can only contain that urge to get frustrated at watching a cycle for about 5 seconds before he tries to take matters into his own hands, so to speak.

He rarely starts out out of position, but gets there quickly w/ a cycle.

It might be frustration to a certain degree.  I tend to think that he has trouble following all the moving pieces and gets fixated and pulled away from where he should be.  Basically, he lacks the vision to see everything going on and he's being asked to do more than he's capable of doing.  Perhaps a better role is for him to stand in front of the net and clear the crease of anything that comes near it?

20 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

I think @SwampD asked for this earlier in the string.  Both are from Natural Stat Trick -  The first one is Risto only and his partners.  

The second one is various partner combinations. 

 

Some of the metrics suggest D-men like Pilut and McCabe played better with Risto than Bogo.   McCabes numbers with players other than Bogo or Risto are also better, but is it b/c of a smaller sample size and heavy offensive zone Faceoff's?   Risto and Pilut seemingly dominate play from a CF/FF perspective.  They also have a positive High Danger % for and against but they get outscored.   Go figure.   Looks like Risto played about two games worth with Hunwick.  Results on CF/FF are good.  HFCF% - positive, HDGA - even.  Protected minutes with 56% Offensive zone FO's yet badly outscored when on the ice.   

For me it comes down to Dahlin.  Huge sample size with Bogo and Risto, and better with Bogo.  Add in Dahlin assuming the PP#1 minutes, and gradually assuming PK minutes translate to a diminishing asset with a steady and high AAV.   We don't need to pay a #4  D pairing $5.4M.  

 

I'm curious, do these charts account for the lack of defense played by the forwards who are on the ice at the same time as the defense?  Given that covering a zone once an opponent is established basically turns into a five man initiative, if the stats don't account for the forwards it seems like it would be missing something.

I am sure there is some relativity in saying that OTHER defenders might not have had that problem?

I honestly don't know.  Asking for education.

 

13 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Can someone explain to me why he'll make better decisions if he gets fewer minutes?    

I've played my entire life and never once have I seen a player get better by playing less.

There's a point in a game/shift where a player may reach a certain level of physical fatigue or exhaustion that results in them either not being able to make a play, choose to make a lazy play, or due to fatigue make a poor decision.  It's a reasonable question.  I don't think it's the difference of playing 28 minutes to playing 8 minutes and the line may not even be there, but the concept is solid enough to be discussed I would think.

I also think they just ask him to be a player he's not able to be.