Dylan Cozens Sabres First Round Pick Signs ELC

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

This is true, though I think it matters what type of game you play.  Marner and Pettersson use their elite skill level to avoid contact for the most part, I don’t think Cozens is going to be playing like that.

With that said, he is ready when he is ready.  He seems pretty strong already, so he may be able to play even if he hasn’t filled out all the way.

Marner uses his speed, which Cozens definitely has. Pettersson actually took his share of big hits. We certainly have to be careful with Cozens. 

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Marner uses his speed, which Cozens definitely has. Pettersson actually took his share of big hits. We certainly have to be careful with Cozens. 

Yeah, Cozens has speed, but that doesn’t mean that he plays like Marner.  He isn’t going to be elusive like those guys.  He isn’t going to be skating around dangling, keeping guys away with dazzling puck handling.  I think he’ll be a bit more straight forward, so he will probably need to outmuscle guys at times.

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

Yeah, Cozens has speed, but that doesn’t mean that he plays like Marner.  He isn’t going to be elusive like those guys.  He isn’t going to be skating around dangling, keeping guys away with dazzling puck handling.  I think he’ll be a bit more straight forward, so he will probably need to outmuscle guys at times.

Again, Pettersson wasn't dinking and dunking around avoiding hits. Neither was Marner really. He was blowing by guys. 

Cozens is going to play in the NHL in his second year post draft, just like basically everyone drafted in a similar position. He''ll be stronger by that time.

[Curt]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Again, Pettersson wasn't dinking and dunking around avoiding hits. Neither was Marner really. He was blowing by guys. 

Cozens is going to play in the NHL in his second year post draft, just like basically everyone drafted in a similar position. He''ll be stronger by that time.

It’s not just avoiding hits.  It’s avoiding contact.  Keeping distance.  Keeping the puck safe.  Marner/Pettersson use their skating and puck handling to do this.  Cozens will probably end up using his length and strength more than they do.

So, are you saying that you don’t think Cozens will play a more physical style of hockey, more dependent upon physical strength than Marner or Pettersson?  Because that’s all I’m saying.

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, Curt said:

It’s not just avoiding hits.  It’s avoiding contact.  Keeping distance.  Keeping the puck safe.  Marner/Pettersson use their skating and puck handling to do this.  Cozens will probably end up using his length and strength more than they do.

So, are you saying that you don’t think Cozens will play a more physical style of hockey, more dependent upon physical strength than Marner or Pettersson?  Because that’s all I’m saying.

That's right, he may not. 

I guess we'll see once he's in the NHL full-time one year from now. 

Edited July 16, 2019 by Thorny

[Curt]

Just now, Thorny said:

That's right, he may not. 

Ok  ?‍♂️

[That Aud Smell]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

Guys like Mitch Marner and Elias Pettersson look like he does, right now. 

I was gonna respond but @Curt did a much better job of drawing out my position than I could have.

Just looking at the gawkish 18 year old — and I’m feeling like he’s 3 years away from being a useful NHL’er (and this assumes he’s gonna make it at all (not all of them do)).

 

 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

I was gonna respond but @Curt did a much better job of drawing out my position than I could have.

Just looking at the gawkish 18 year old — and I’m feeling like he’s 3 years away from being a useful NHL’er (and this assumes he’s gonna make it at all (not all of them do)).

 

 

So your feeling is that he won't be a useful NHLer until his 4th season post draft. That would be pretty disappointing for a 7th overall pick, and it would be safe to say Botterill mis-fired if that's the case.

I suppose it's possible, but I don't see the point in taking such a dire point of view because he's skinny at 18. 

Edit - Had a bunch written out on the most recent 7th overall picks from 2016 going back, but it deleted. Long story short, there's one Haydn Fleury, and some didn't really have their true breakout till their 4th post draft season or beyond, but all aside from Fleury were useful NHL contributers by their 3rd post draft season or sooner, going back to OEL in 09. 

Especially nowadays, it often doesn't take good young players until age 21/22 to start making a useful contribution to their teams in the NHL, at least not the guy you want to take at 7. 

Edited July 17, 2019 by Thorny

[Zamboni]

I can see Cozens making the team full time in Oct. 2020. And have a similar development trajectory as Reinhart. 

The trajectory I view Reinhart’s early years is:

1st full season, struggled but saw flashes of his talent. Didn’t hurt his line.

2nd full season, better overall but noticed things he needed to work on.

3rd full season, took another positive step and rounding out his game. Developing nicely.

For Cozens to take 3 NHL years to mostly round out his game isn’t anything to ZOMG be alarmed about. It’s rather average to even a little faster than average. Yes, even for a 7th overall pick.

 

[Thorner]

6 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

I can see Cozens making the team full time in Oct. 2020. And have a similar development trajectory as Reinhart. 

The trajectory I view Reinhart’s early years is:

1st full season, struggled but saw flashes of his talent. Didn’t hurt his line.

2nd full season, better overall but noticed things he needed to work on.

3rd full season, took another positive step and rounding out his game. Developing nicely.

For Cozens to take 3 NHL years to mostly round out his game isn’t anything to ZOMG be alarmed about. It’s rather average to even a little faster than average. Yes, even for a 7th overall pick.

 

Who's talking about rounding out their game? We are taking useful NHL player. 

Reinhart was a useful NHL player one year after being drafted. Quite useful, he had 23 goals. 

Along much the same lines, I expect Mittelstadt to be a useful NHLer this season, as well. 

Edited July 17, 2019 by Thorny

[Zamboni]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Who's talking about rounding out their game? We are taking useful NHL player. 

Reinhart was a useful NHL player one year after being drafted. Quite useful, he had 23 goals. 

Then I bet everyone has a different definition (surprise surprise) of “useful player”. ?

If by your definition of useful player, then I believe Cozens will be equally useful (as Reinhart was in his first) during his 2020-2021 1st full time NHL season.

Some may have doubts about the development curve of an 18 year old. I’ve read that boring chapter every year from some fans about every 1st round draft pick for years. I just don’t have those kind of doubts every year. Oh well. To each his/her own. ?‍♂️

 

[Thorner]

8 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Then I bet everyone has a different definition (surprise surprise) of “useful player”. ?

If by your definition of useful player, then I believe Cozens will be equally useful (as Reinhart was in his first) during his 2020-2021 1st full time NHL season.

Some may have doubts about the development curve of an 18 year old. I’ve read that boring chapter every year from some fans about every 1st round draft pick for years. I just don’t have those kind of doubts every year. Oh well. To each his/her own. ?‍♂️

 

Ya, I mean I'd define useful as being a net-positive contributor. 

Circling back to Mittelstadt, the pick becomes a tad more concerning if he's not that by this coming season, his 3rd post draft, but I don't think that'll be the case. If he's in the proper role (not 2C), I think he'll be fine this season.

Edited July 17, 2019 by Thorny

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So your feeling is that he won't be a useful NHL until his 4th season post draft. That would be pretty disappointing for a 7th overall pick, and it would be safe to say Botterill mis-fired if that's the case.

I suppose it's possible, but I don't see the point in taking such a dire point of view because he's skinny at 18. 

Kyle Okposo 7th overall 2006, first full year 2008/09 39 points, became a 60-point guy in 13/14

Jakob Voracek 7th overall, 2007, first full year 2008/09 38 points, became an 80-point guy in 14/15

Colin Wilson 7th overall 2008, first full year 2010/11 34 points, stayed at that level

Nazem Kadri 7th overall 2009, first full year 2012/13 44 points, settled in as a 50-point guy.

Jeff Skinner, 7th overall 2010, first full year 2010/11 63 points, stayed at that level

Mark Schiefele, 7th overall 2011, first full year 2013/14 34 points, became an 80-point guy in 16/17

Matt Dumba 7th overall 2012, first full year 2014/15 16 points, became an 50-point guy in 17/18

Darnell Nurse 7th overall, 2013, first full year 2015/16 10 points, became a 40-point guy in 18/19

Hayden Fleury 7th overall! 2014, first full year, 2017/18 8 points, regressed back to the minors since

Ivan Provorov 7th overall 2015, first full year 2016/17 30 points, became a 40-point guy in 17/18

Clayton Keller 7th overall 2016, first full year 2017/18 65 points

LIas Anderson 7th overall 2017, yet to make  NHL full-time

Quinn Hughes 7th overall 2018, yet to make NHL full-time

 

Interesting result from what is for the most part, a strong group of players. Nine of the first 11 guys are solidly above average NHLers and only one is flirting with bust status.

All seven forwards picked in that stretch had 30-plus points in their D3 season or sooner. Only 2 had broken 40 by that time, but all except Wilson look like regular 50-point-plus guys and three of the 4 D have topped 40.

Also interesting to note that #8 pick Casey Mittelstadt had a comparable or better D2 season than all except Keller and Skinner.

[Huckleberry]

6 hours ago, Thorny said:

Again, Pettersson wasn't dinking and dunking around avoiding hits. Neither was Marner really. He was blowing by guys. 

Cozens is going to play in the NHL in his second year post draft, just like basically everyone drafted in a similar position. He''ll be stronger by that time.

Yeah just like Nylander ?

 

[That Aud Smell]

It’s quintessential July hockey talk when there’s a lengthy debate about what the state of a prospect’s game will be in 3 years.

I know zilch about the kid - haven’t even watched a highlight reel (well, maybe part of one?). I’m strictly going off a gut take based on how gangly he looks.

Now, otoh, I’ve seen the story about how he comes from a remote territory in Canada (the Yukon, is it?). Maybe that backstory, and all that it encompasses, will help fuel and carry him to greatness. I am all for that sort of thing, naturally.

Edited July 17, 2019 by That Aud Smell

[LGR4GM]

He weighs 5lbs less than Dahlin did at the start of his rookie year and they are the same height. This hand wringing over an 18yr old kids physical strength is silly. Let's say he adds 10lbs a year. So that's 195 next offseason, 205 the one after, 215 after year 3 post draft. That doesn't mean he can't be effective before that. Reinhart was. 

[That Aud Smell]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

He weighs 5lbs less than Dahlin did at the start of his rookie year and they are the same height. This hand wringing over an 18yr old kids physical strength is silly. Let's say he adds 10lbs a year. So that's 195 next offseason, 205 the one after, 215 after year 3 post draft. That doesn't mean he can't be effective before that. Reinhart was. 

Sir! Sir!

Please, sir. Civility.

[That Aud Smell]

Also, and again, I see little point in comparing Cozens to an elite talent like Dahlin.

Reinhart is probably the better comparison. For whatever reason, I have a specific memory of FGMTM talking about what Reinhart's marching orders were following the draft (i.e., focus on getting bigger and stronger, at the expense of putting up buckets of points). And I think Reinhart did a good job with that work. Hopefully, Cozens can do something similar.

[That Aud Smell]

But, gotdam -- LOOK at that dude. I want to buy him a milkshake.

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Also, and again, I see little point in comparing Cozens to an elite talent like Dahlin.

Reinhart is probably the better comparison. For whatever reason, I have a specific memory of FGMTM talking about what Reinhart's marching orders were following the draft (i.e., focus on getting bigger and stronger, at the expense of putting up buckets of points). And I think Reinhart did a good job with that work. Hopefully, Cozens can do something similar.

I think what you might be missing is Cozens is not unusually weak compared to any draft pick, he’s just long and lean.

Just comparing him to recent Sabres at the time they were drafted, he’s ahead of Johnson, Mittelstadt, Davidsson, Nylander, and Asplund, on par with Reinhart, Guhle and Dahlin and behind just Eichel and Samuelsson.

Like 90 per cent of these guys, he’s a high school kid.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

His lips are too pink.  That is an unnatural pink for lips.

Other than that somewhat puzzling tid bit, I have no issues atol.

Edited July 17, 2019 by New Scotland (NS)
all the missing words ...

[That Aud Smell]

Just now, dudacek said:

I think what you might be missing is Cozens is not unusually weak compared to any draft pick, he’s just long and lean.

Just comparing him to recent Sabres at the time they were drafted, he’s ahead of Johnson, Mittelstadt, Davidsson, Nylander, and Asplund, on par with Reinhart, Guhle and Dahlin and behind just Eichel and Samuelsson.

Like 90 per cent of these guys, he’s a high school kid.

I appreciate the feedback. I'd effing love for this kid to defy my uninformed, instinctive response to his signing-day photo.

[pi2000]

Cozens stature is not whats holding him back.   He needs to learn to see the ice better and improve his awareness, which will improve with another year of juniors.

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I appreciate the feedback. I'd effing love for this kid to defy my uninformed, instinctive response to his signing-day photo.

Check this video out. They’re babies.

 

[Randall Flagg]

Hang on though:
 

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think what you might be missing is Cozens is not unusually weak compared to any draft pick, he’s just long and lean.

Just comparing him to recent Sabres at the time they were drafted, he’s ahead of Johnson, Mittelstadt, Davidsson, Nylander, and Asplund, on par with Reinhart, Guhle and Dahlin and behind just Eichel and Samuelsson.

Like 90 per cent of these guys, he’s a high school kid.

I don't see how this contradicts anything Aud has said, particularly about the guy being 3 years out from being a useful NHLer. Isn't that a completely normal timeline for any prospect taken anywhere outside the top 2? And him (like others) being a string bean is a major factor in that being a normal timeline for most prospects. 

This is Mitts' 3rd post-draft season and nobody has any idea whether he'll be a useful NHLer this October, or if it'll take another year or two. A major reason for that is his boyish stature (and wasn't he almost/over 200 lbs when drafted?)

Edited July 17, 2019 by Randall Flagg