Where Does Risto End Up?

[Derrico]

30 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

 

So good.  He really is so good. 

Risto or no Risto it's going to be very interesting watching this young defense grow together.  Dudacek is spot on.  I fear what a physical team will do to us but there is miles and miles of potential right now.  It really is shaping up to have the most potential that I've seen on this team since atleast the 05-07 teams.  Not in style at all but contribution.

[TrueBlueGED]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Dahlin is the prototype, and it is definitely where you could see Henri’s game going.

Our two recent pick 31s fit that mould as do Bryson, Fitzgerald and Borgen. They have varying degrees of offence and snarl, but they all close gaps and are responsible with the puck. It’s clearly something Botterill sees as a high priority. It will take a while to trickle onto the big club though.

Maybe Montour and Miller will be less high-risk than I expect.

I think you might be unnecessarily conflating "puck moving" with "high risk." In my view, puck moving simply means they're good at transitioning the puck and flipping the ice. That doesn't necessarily mean they do it by attempting high risk plays. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

LTIR question, taking Callahan even if he is on LTIR still helps Tampa cap wise correct? Isn't the way LTIR gets calculated still a small hindrance to them? 

The way I understand it is that LTIR only kicks in once you have spent to the cap.  Since your cap spending is calculated daily during the season, Callahan’s LTIR really doesn’t help them until ten games or so left in the season. Trading him also gets rid of one of the 50 allowed contracts I believe.

[Neo]

50 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Just you wait until we dump Risto and Scandella, and bring in Jake Gardiner ?

Don't forget about Borgen though in the 'top prospects' list. 

And I know what you mean by "capable shutdown guy" so I understand why he skirted your post, but I think McCabe has decent defensive chops.

I almost made my summer video focus "all the Dahlin plays we've forgotten" but I felt the thing I did instead was more pressing. 

I can't wait til I'm done with grad school

Do you just close your eyes and “summon” this stuff?  Man, oh, man ...   Rhetorical ...  I know there’s sweat involved.  Grateful.

[LGR4GM]

There is not a team that is so physically bigger than a bunch of 6'1" defenders that it will ever be a thing. 

[LGR4GM]

I think I would be worried about physicality if it was really an issue. Right now our defense is basically average height and good weight. They all skate really well. I think skating and weight have the biggest impact when it comes to being played physically. The Dahlin video shows some of what I mean. Dahlin in the clips isn't physically overpowered because there is not the opportunity to do it. Also, just because you are not massive doesn't mean you can't play physical. Pekar is a prime example and Jokiharju from what I remember doesn't shy away from physical contact. 

[jsb]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

There is not a team that is so physically bigger than a bunch of 6'1" defenders that it will ever be a thing. 

Although I agree with you for the most part BUT sometimes you need to be able to move guys out from in front of the net where being physical and strong is usually a prerequisite and this is especially true in the playoffs.

[GASabresIUFAN]

What would convince Tyler Johnson to waive his NTC and come to Buffalo?  He comes here and his taxes go up, the winter sucks, he goes from a contender to a non-contender (at least right now).

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I think you might be unnecessarily conflating "puck moving" with "high risk." In my view, puck moving simply means they're good at transitioning the puck and flipping the ice. That doesn't necessarily mean they do it by attempting high risk plays. 

No, I’m pretty conscious of the distinction you are making, and agree with it.

I think Risto, Montour and Miller are high-risk in the sense that they will move the puck or themselves into positions that create opportunities for their opponents. Bogosian has been that type of player, although I thought he was much safer last year, whereas the reverse was probably true for Scandella. Dahlin made high-risk decisions last year as well, and it bit him, but I chalk that up to an elite 18-year-old on a learning curve. I wouldn’t call Pilut or McCabe high-risk in terms of their decision-making, but they aren’t “safe” because Jake will overextend himself at times and Larry loses too many battles.

High-risk is fine if it is accompanied by greater high-reward.

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, jsb said:

Although I agree with you for the most part BUT sometimes you need to be able to move guys out from in front of the net where being physical and strong is usually a prerequisite and this is especially true in the playoffs.

I see no reason why our defense can't move guys from the net. They are all big enough with the exception of Pilut. 

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

There is not a team that is so physically bigger than a bunch of 6'1" defenders that it will ever be a thing. 

You don’t think the “heaviness” of the Blues helped win them the cup? I think it definitely helped the Kings win theirs.

Dont get me wrong, I agree that skill can overcome strength, but I also think teams need a degree of each to be truly successful.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

You don’t think the “heaviness” of the Blues helped win them the cup? I think it definitely helped the Kings win theirs.

Dont get me wrong, I agree that skill can overcome strength, but I also think teams need a degree of each to be truly successful.

100% not. They won with clutch goaltending. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

What about Risto and Erod to Nash for Bonino, Sissons and a 1st?

[LGR4GM]

Just because a team was the weightiest doesn't mean that is why they won. What about last year when Washington won? Or when Pittsburgh won back to back? Or how Boston took the Blues to 7 games. If Weight was really such an important factor it would consistently matter and it doesn't. Sure outliers are not good, you don't want to be a team that is 40lbs less than your opponent on average but we are talking about a range of what? 10lbs between teams. 

https://imgur.com/a/deSwHN2#YTPlf95

Edited July 11, 2019 by LGR4GM

[Randall Flagg]

The Blues owned the puck their entire playoff run. 

They 100% used the fact that they could body any opponent at will to receive and retain that puck. IMO it's a push between them and the LA cup teams for who was more effective on the boards, particularly down low. 

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What about Risto and Erod to Nash for Bonino, Sissons and a 1st?

Teach us about Sissons! 

[darksabre]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

What about Risto and Erod to Nash for Bonino, Sissons and a 1st?

You're really over valuing Risto.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The Blues owned the puck their entire playoff run. 

They 100% used the fact that they could body any opponent at will to receive and retain that puck. IMO it's a push between them and the LA cup teams for who was more effective on the boards, particularly down low. 

Teach us about Sissons! 

Okay, if weight matters why wasn't LA in the playoffs? Why did Washington win the year before? 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

100% not. They won with clutch goaltending. 

I thought they did such a magnificent job clogging up the ice and preventing the Bruins from moving the puck into scoring areas through a combination of positioning and being hard on the body. Boston couldn’t penetrate.

Binnington was good, but a .912 save percentage is hardly remarkable.

[LGR4GM]

This is from the start of the season courtesy of the Athletic. https://theathletic.com/579795/2018/10/10/sizing-up-the-nhl-2018-19-nhl-teams-by-age-height-and-weight/

Again, where is the correlation. Just because the heaviest team won does not mean they won because they were the heaviest team. 

 

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I thought they did such a magnificent job clogging up the ice and preventing the Bruins from moving the puck into scoring areas through a combination of positioning and being hard on the body. Boston couldn’t penetrate.

Binnington was good, but a .912 save percentage is hardly remarkable.

Fun fact - using that weighted-shot data that has been talked about, takig into account shot type and location, no NHL netminder had an "easier" job than Jordan Binnington this past year. St. Louis's D is really good.

 

 

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Okay, if weight matters why wasn't LA in the playoffs? Why did Washington win the year before? 

This counter only makes sense if I had said "having a large weight means you will always make the playoffs and if it's not your distinguishing style you can never win a cup." 

What I actually said was that the Blues used the fact that teams are overwhelmed by them physically in a way that allowed them to be puck-dominant and they won games that way, while also being suffocating defensively, both by raw skill (Dunn), smarts (Parayko, Pietrangelo) and physically snuffing people out (Parayko, Petro, Gunnarsson/Bortuzzo/everyone else)

There is no sweeping claim being made here, it's just an observation about this year's cup winner. 

[SwampD]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This is from the start of the season courtesy of the Athletic. https://theathletic.com/579795/2018/10/10/sizing-up-the-nhl-2018-19-nhl-teams-by-age-height-and-weight/

Again, where is the correlation. Just because the heaviest team won does not mean they won because they were the heaviest team. 

 

Tell us why it didn't help.

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Just because a team was the weightiest doesn't mean that is why they won. What about last year when Washington won? Or when Pittsburgh won back to back? Or how Boston took the Blues to 7 games. If Weight was really such an important factor it would consistently matter and it doesn't. Sure outliers are not good, you don't want to be a team that is 40lbs less than your opponent on average but we are talking about a range of what? 10lbs between teams. 

https://imgur.com/a/deSwHN2#YTPlf95

I agree with everything you post above. 

When I’m talking “heavy,” I’m not talking about how much they weigh, I’m talking about how a team can use their physical strength to extend puck possession for themselves and snuff the same from opponents.

And I don’t think “heavy” is the most important factor, only that it is a factor that can be exploited.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Tell us why it didn't help.

If it helped it would help consistently over time. We don't see that. We don't see weighted teams getting better results because it is a weak correlation. 

[darksabre]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

Fun fact - using that weighted-shot data that has been talked about, takig into account shot type and location, no NHL netminder had an "easier" job than Jordan Binnington this past year. St. Louis's D is really good.

 

 

This counter only makes sense if I had said "having a large weight means you will always make the playoffs and if it's not your distinguishing style you can never win a cup." 

What I actually said was that the Blues used the fact that teams are overwhelmed by them physically in a way that allowed them to be puck-dominant and they won games that way, while also being suffocating defensively, both by raw skill (Dunn), smarts (Parayko, Pietrangelo) and physically snuffing people out (Parayko, Petro, Gunnarsson/Bortuzzo/everyone else)

There is no sweeping claim being made here, it's just an observation about this year's cup winner. 

I would bet that St. Louis' forwards did a lot of that smothering.

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I thought they did such a magnificent job clogging up the ice and preventing the Bruins from moving the puck into scoring areas through a combination of positioning and being hard on the body. Boston couldn’t penetrate.

Binnington was good, but a .912 save percentage is hardly remarkable.

Jordan Binnington has a .949sv% in the 4 games the Blues won in the finals. Clutch goaltending was a major factor in their win.