Where Does Risto End Up?

[LGR4GM]

I can't figure out how Risto will suddenly be better at 5v5 play just because he gets less 5v5 play. He will still, give up the blue line and still toss the puck out needlessly when pressured. 

[North Buffalo]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I can't figure out how Risto will suddenly be better at 5v5 play just because he gets less 5v5 play. He will still, give up the blue line and still toss the puck out needlessly when pressured. 

Better system less pressure... we shall see... understand the skepticism. 

[darksabre]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I can't figure out how Risto will suddenly be better at 5v5 play just because he gets less 5v5 play. He will still, give up the blue line and still toss the puck out needlessly when pressured. 

Right. There's nothing in his history that says less ice time will produce better results.

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, darksabre said:

Right. There's nothing in his history that says less ice time will produce better results.

Really you just hide the results of traditional stats, but with advanced stats that's not an issue anymore; Risto getting 5m less ice time against worse competition will likely mean a better +/- for him, but his underlying stats will show the same Risto.

It's like when Girgensons and Ennis put up all those numbers during the tank, but when they were put in roles that actually suited them we saw the real player

[Drunkard]

28 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Please, name a "jag" that Botterill brought in for the right side of the defense and define how you are reaching "jag" status for that player. 

They are all just a guy until proven otherwise. It doesn't mean they suck or they won't improve over time, but I don't think the collective lot of them are good enough to push Ristolainen down to the 3rd pair this season. Miller didn't do any heavy lifting in Vegas and Jokiharju (or however you spell it) has only played half a season in the NHL so he's technically still a prospect. Montour seems to me much more of the puck moving/offensive oriented type defenseman rather than a guy who can be thrown to the wolves, and the rest of the guys on the right hand side either haven't proven to be any better than Ristolainen (Bogosian, Nelson) or are still too early in their development (Borgen) to just assume not only that they'll be better than Ristolainen, but they'll be ready to take over his minutes this upcoming season.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I’ll give us a few reasons not to trade Risto.  If Bogo is out for much or all of this coming season we are putting the following RHD on the ice if Risto is traded. Montour, who is a legit top 4, Miller who played sheltered minutes in both Boston and LV and Jokiharju, a 20 year old rookie with 38 NHL games under his belt.

This isn’t to say the Miller won’t step up and succeed against better competition or that Jokiharju won’t build on last season’s early success, but there is considerable risk in this scenario.

As to whether Risto will play better 5 on 5 with less ice time, one would hope that a new coach will help him defensively and logging less minutes would lead to a less tired player and therefore less mistakes, but there are no guarantees.  At least we know he can play log big minutes and help the offense.  

Also a better puck possession team that is more effective on O and better overall at clearing the zone should lead to better fancy stats for everyone.

Edited July 11, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[darksabre]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’ll give us a reason not to trade Risto.  If Bogo is out for much or all of this coming season we are putting the following RHD on the ice if Risto is traded. Montour, who is a legit top 4, Miller who played sheltered minutes in both Boston and LV and Jokiharju, a 20 year old rookie with 38 NHL games under his belt.

This isn’t to say the Miller won’t step up and succeed against better competition or that Jokiharju won’t build on last season’s early success, but there is considerable risk in this scenario.

As to whether Risto will play better 5 on 5 with less ice time, one would hope that a new coach will help him defensively and logging less minutes would lead to a less tired player and therefore less mistakes, but there are no guarantees.  At least we know he can play log big minutes and help the offense.  

Also a better puck possession team that is more effective on O and better overall at clearing the zone should lead to better fancy stats for everyone.

You're forgetting that there are more players on the defensive depth chart.

From the lineup thread:

Dahlin - Montour
McCabe - Miller
Pilut/Scandella - Bogosian
Nelson, Jokiharju, Hunwick

They don't need Risto if Bogo is missing time.

[nfreeman]

Excellent deep dive in the Athletic today about the possibility of Risto to TB:  https://theathletic.com/1071188/2019/07/11/roundtable-is-sabres-defenseman-rasmus-ristolainen-worth-a-look-for-the-lightning/

They agree with @Randall Flaggthat Cirelli would be ideal for the Sabres, but the TB writer says he doesn't think TB would trade Cirelli.

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Excellent deep dive in the Athletic today about the possibility of Risto to TB:  https://theathletic.com/1071188/2019/07/11/roundtable-is-sabres-defenseman-rasmus-ristolainen-worth-a-look-for-the-lightning/

They agree with @Randall Flaggthat Cirelli would be ideal for the Sabres, but the TB writer says he doesn't think TB would trade Cirelli.

Yeah.  Definitely sounding more like Cirelli would be nearly the ideal return piece for Ristolainen, just don't see Tampa going along with it.

So, good on Randy for the idea; too bad it looks unworkable.

[Randall Flagg]

I think the LTIR of Callahan killed it. Unless he also had a NTC or something. But I always pictured loading up on salary when they still had real cap problems to yoink him outta there.

And while I would have no qualms building the package into something that WOULD make them willing to give him up, I don't expect the Sabres to do the same.

I still hope they take a shot on a player that is solid now and they think can be special, rather than a Tyler Johnson type. 

Edited July 11, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[darksabre]

Personally, I'm wondering how much the Sabres could pry out of Anaheim if they took Eaves as a cap dump.

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Personally, I'm wondering how much the Sabres could pry out of Anaheim if they took Eaves as a cap dump.

They wouldn't do it, but Rakell would be sweet. It'd probably end up being Henrique. I'd add to turn it into Henrique and Kase.

[darksabre]

4 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

They wouldn't do it, but Rakell would be sweet. It'd probably end up being Henrique. I'd add to turn it into Henrique and Kase.

What are we adding to get Kase? Mitts?

Risto and Mitts for Henrique, Kase, and Eaves?

[GASabresIUFAN]

36 minutes ago, darksabre said:

You're forgetting that there are more players on the defensive depth chart.

From the lineup thread:

Dahlin - Montour
McCabe - Miller
Pilut/Scandella - Bogosian
Nelson, Jokiharju, Hunwick

They don't need Risto if Bogo is missing time.

The point of my post was if Bogo is missing significant time they need Risto more then if he isn’t. 

The RHD depth with Risto traded and Bogo in IR is as follows

Montour

Miller

Jokiharju

Nelson

There are many question marks with Miller and Jokiharju to assume this group will work without Risto.

[darksabre]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

The point of my post was if Bogo is missing significant time they need Risto more then if he isn’t. 

The RHD depth with Risto traded and Bogo in IR is as follows

Montour

Miller

Jokiharju

Nelson

There are many question marks with Miller and Jokiharju to assume this group will work without Risto.

Sorry man, the problem is space. We have too many rostered defensemen. Risto is simply the odd man out and worrying about Bogo is not a good enough reason to keep him around if there's a good trade offer on the table that helps improve the offense.

[Drunkard]

28 minutes ago, darksabre said:

You're forgetting that there are more players on the defensive depth chart.

From the lineup thread:

Dahlin - Montour
McCabe - Miller
Pilut/Scandella - Bogosian
Nelson, Jokiharju, Hunwick

They don't need Risto if Bogo is missing time.

The may not need him in the sense that they have other warm bodies on the roster, but if we want to take ownership serious about now being the time to actually start winning then it would be irresponsible to just throw the next man up into Ristolainen's spot and hope for the best.

Bogosian and Pilut won't be ready to start the season. Scandella, Nelson, and Hunwick are mediocre on their best days at this point, Miller was sheltered in Vegas and Jokiharju hasn't even accrued a full season of playing in the NHL. That leaves Dahlin, Montour, and McCabe as other players who can play in the top 4 but none of them have played the type of minutes that Ristolainen played last season. Sure we can roll the dice with those guys and hope that Jokiharju or Miller can step up and nab the remaining spot in the top 4 but if any of those guys prove not to be able to handle those minutes the season will be toast and it will be another year lost.

 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The point of my post was if Bogo is missing significant time they need Risto more then if he isn’t. 

The RHD depth with Risto traded and Bogo in IR is as follows

Montour

Miller

Jokiharju

Nelson

There are many question marks with Miller and Jokiharju to assume this group will work without Risto.

That can be alleviated....some of our LHD can play the right side, such as McCabe. And wasn't it said at one point that Dahlin might prefer the right side(just asking, not sure)?

Of course, this would possibly weaken the left side, but it is an option in any scenario.

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

The may not need him in the sense that they have other warm bodies on the roster, but if we want to take ownership serious about now being the time to actually start winning then it would be irresponsible to just throw the next man up into Ristolainen's spot and hope for the best.

Bogosian and Pilut won't be ready to start the season. Scandella, Nelson, and Hunwick are mediocre on their best days at this point, Miller was sheltered in Vegas and Jokiharju hasn't even accrued a full season of playing in the NHL. That leaves Dahlin, Montour, and McCabe as other players who can play in the top 4 but none of them have played the type of minutes that Ristolainen played last season. Sure we can roll the dice with those guys and hope that Jokiharju or Miller can step up and nab the remaining spot in the top 4 but if any of those guys prove not to be able to handle those minutes the season will be toast and it will be another year lost.

 

Well said and much better then I put it.  

[nfreeman]

14 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

The may not need him in the sense that they have other warm bodies on the roster, but if we want to take ownership serious about now being the time to actually start winning then it would be irresponsible to just throw the next man up into Ristolainen's spot and hope for the best.

Bogosian and Pilut won't be ready to start the season. Scandella, Nelson, and Hunwick are mediocre on their best days at this point, Miller was sheltered in Vegas and Jokiharju hasn't even accrued a full season of playing in the NHL. That leaves Dahlin, Montour, and McCabe as other players who can play in the top 4 but none of them have played the type of minutes that Ristolainen played last season. Sure we can roll the dice with those guys and hope that Jokiharju or Miller can step up and nab the remaining spot in the top 4 but if any of those guys prove not to be able to handle those minutes the season will be toast and it will be another year lost.

 

I agree with this and would just add that the risk associated with trading Risto as described here is one of the good reasons not to trade Risto unless there is a really good forward coming back.

[darksabre]

Guys. All of these defensemen have to go somewhere. We don't even have room in Rochester to waive anyone.

8 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I agree with this and would just add that the risk associated with trading Risto as described here is one of the good reasons not to trade Risto unless there is a really good forward coming back.

Duh?

[LGR4GM]

26 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

The may not need him in the sense that they have other warm bodies on the roster, but if we want to take ownership serious about now being the time to actually start winning then it would be irresponsible to just throw the next man up into Ristolainen's spot and hope for the best.

Bogosian and Pilut won't be ready to start the season. Scandella, Nelson, and Hunwick are mediocre on their best days at this point, Miller was sheltered in Vegas and Jokiharju hasn't even accrued a full season of playing in the NHL. That leaves Dahlin, Montour, and McCabe as other players who can play in the top 4 but none of them have played the type of minutes that Ristolainen played last season. Sure we can roll the dice with those guys and hope that Jokiharju or Miller can step up and nab the remaining spot in the top 4 but if any of those guys prove not to be able to handle those minutes the season will be toast and it will be another year lost.

 

At this point, I would rather trade Risto and hope the next guy up can take his minutes because I know at this point Risto can't play those minutes. 

 

With Dahlin you can basically give him Risto's minutes this year and give him a decent RHD to play with and he will be fine. Montour or Miller should be fine with Dahlin. I honestly think people underestimate just how fantastic Dahlin is in the zone and exiting it. 

[Taro T]

19 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

The may not need him in the sense that they have other warm bodies on the roster, but if we want to take ownership serious about now being the time to actually start winning then it would be irresponsible to just throw the next man up into Ristolainen's spot and hope for the best.

Bogosian and Pilut won't be ready to start the season. Scandella, Nelson, and Hunwick are mediocre on their best days at this point, Miller was sheltered in Vegas and Jokiharju hasn't even accrued a full season of playing in the NHL. That leaves Dahlin, Montour, and McCabe as other players who can play in the top 4 but none of them have played the type of minutes that Ristolainen played last season. Sure we can roll the dice with those guys and hope that Jokiharju or Miller can step up and nab the remaining spot in the top 4 but if any of those guys prove not to be able to handle those minutes the season will be toast and it will be another year lost.

 

Bogosian, even without Ristolainen should be slotted into the 3rd D pairing when healthy.  If Miller can't play 2nd pairing with Dahlin, then we have bigger issues than we thought.

The bigger concern would be losing Montour or Miller before Bogosian is ready to return.

8 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

That can be alleviated....some of our LHD can play the right side, such as McCabe. And wasn't it said at one point that Dahlin might prefer the right side(just asking, not sure)?

Of course, this would possibly weaken the left side, but it is an option in any scenario.

Pretty much every D- man that's spent any time up last year except Scandella can play on the right side in a pinch.  They may not (well, that's putting it mildly) have the best RD in the league but they have the deepest.  Even without Risto.

4 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I agree with this and would just add that the risk associated with trading Risto as described here is one of the good reasons not to trade Risto unless there is a really good forward coming back.

Absolutely.  Pretty sure nobody here has said the return should be anything less than a true 2C or 2RW at minimum.

But, just have to believe that Botterill has a plan to make that happen before October 3.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Bogosian, even without Ristolainen should be slotted into the 3rd D pairing when healthy.  If Miller can't play 2nd pairing with Dahlin, then we have bigger issues than we thought.

The bigger concern would be losing Montour or Miller before Bogosian is ready to return.

Pretty much every D- man that's spent any time up last year except Scandella can play on the right side in a pinch.  They may not (well, that's putting it mildly) have the best RD in the league but they have the deepest.  Even without Risto.

Absolutely.  Pretty sure nobody here has said the return should be anything less than a true 2C or 2RW at minimum.

But, just have to believe that Botterill has a plan to make that happen before October 3.

Exactly. Keep Risto if this does not materialize. I think we won't see any trade until the RFA status of some of the bigger guys gets sorted out (Point, Marner, Connor, Laine, maybe others) 

[Taro T]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

At this point, I would rather trade Risto and hope the next guy up can take his minutes because I know at this point Risto can't play those minutes. 

 

With Dahlin you can basically give him Risto's minutes this year and give him a decent RHD to play with and he will be fine. Montour or Miller should be fine with Dahlin. I honestly think people underestimate just how fantastic Dahlin is in the zone and exiting it. 

Pencil Dahlin into 2nd pairing to start the year and be really happy when he steps up beyond that role.  McCabe can play with Montour to start the year as the "top pairing" getting the tougher match ups (but essentially same minutes as Dahlin -  Miller).  Once Rasmus is ready to step up (likely around a December time frame) make that switch and increase husband Montour's minutes slightly.

He'll be their best defenceman.  No need to force it.  Kid is still only 19.  He still is getting stronger, but definitely wore down last year.  Giving him Risto usage is a solid way to make sure he wouldn't be ready for a playoff run (should that be in the cards).

[darksabre]

Worrying about how they can limp along on defense with injuries is moot if there's no one on offense scoring goals.