Where Does Risto End Up?

[TrueBlueGED]

10 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

 

I suppose I'd be happier if your statement didn't so broadly and with such certitude state that a guy who stunk for the Sabres last year was "across the board" better than a guy who is bigger, plays a tougher game and scored more goals -- especially if the difference is defensive play, and both guys played for terrible defensive teams, and Sheary's performance in your most important stat was kinda lousy, albeit less lousy than Vesey's.

Well, my across the board assertion was based on their careers to date, not just the most recent season. Sheary's defensive xG was meh, but Vesey's was horrible. You're understating the difference here. Every other metric between the two they were within the same standard deviation, so I'll happily meet in the middle and say they're approximately the same value-wise. But then you put defense into the mix, and Sheary is the clear winner. Maybe we can agree on this: the Sabres need to do better than both of them in their top-6.

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Well, my across the board assertion was based on their careers to date, not just the most recent season. Sheary's defensive xG was meh, but Vesey's was horrible. You're understating the difference here. Every other metric between the two they were within the same standard deviation, so I'll happily meet in the middle and say they're approximately the same value-wise. But then you put defense into the mix, and Sheary is the clear winner. Maybe we can agree on this: the Sabres need to do better than both of them in their top-6.

See them both as 3rd liners w/ similar flaws & differing strengths.

Though, were either to be put into the Pominville role (non-1st line player put on Eichel & Skinner's wing because it just doesn't matter as much who that 3rd player is & it frees up Reinhart & Olofsson to be useful elsewhere), my suspicion is that Vesey would be better in that role as his game is doing what Pominville did - (try to) skate hard to the net & finish.

[TrueBlueGED]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

See them both as 3rd liners w/ similar flaws & differing strengths.

Though, were either to be put into the Pominville role (non-1st line player put on Eichel & Skinner's wing because it just doesn't matter as much who that 3rd player is & it frees up Reinhart & Olofsson to be useful elsewhere), my suspicion is that Vesey would be better in that role as his game is doing what Pominville did - (try to) skate hard to the net & finish.

On the other hand, if it ever comes to pass, Skinner-Eichel-Vesey might be the worst defensive line in the history of hockey ?

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

On the other hand, if it ever comes to pass, Skinner-Eichel-Vesey might be the worst defensive line in the history of hockey ?

And you expect SHEARY to save that crew? ?

[TrueBlueGED]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

And you expect SHEARY to save that crew? ?

No, but I think they'd merely be the 3rd worst defensive line in the history of hockey ?

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, TrueBlueGED said:

No, but I think they'd merely be the 3rd worst defensive line in the history of hockey ?

Actually, there's at LEAST 4 other permutations of lines from last year's Sabres alone that would be worse than either of those 3somes.  They all include Sobotka and Thompson, but still ...

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Neither were good last year, that's for sure. I put the most weight on xG because of its predictive value, which is where my clear judgment in favor of Sheary comes from. For whatever it's worth, everything I've read about Vesey's defensive play qualitatively backs up his abominable defensive xG in the chart.

Sorry if it’s explained elsewhere on site, but what does -2 Def-xG represent?

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Sorry if it’s explained elsewhere on site, but what does -2 Def-xG represent?

When a linear regression is run to isolate Jimmy Vesey's impact on his team's expected-goals-against (like corsi against but taking into account the quality of shots, and producing a number based on how often goals are scored from those locations) he falls in the bottom ~3% of all NHL skaters, after the regression is performed on everyone. On a team and individual level, expected goals against does a better predictive job for future defensive events than something like goals against or shots against. You could maybe estimate Sheary at the ~35th percentile in the same based on that graph (just eye-balling and recalling a normal distribution from memory)

You can interpret that information how you wish, but as far as I know, that's what the chart says.

[Randall Flagg]

FWIW, I basically ignore RAPM charts unless I see +/- 1.5 or more, because I'm seriously effin tired of charts and numbers and anything numerical or analytic or anything 

I just glance through them, look for the crazy outliers, and then try to figure out why that might have showed up

Not saying that's what anyone else should do, but I have become fatigued 

Edited July 12, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

When a linear regression is run to isolate Jimmy Vesey's impact on his team's expected-goals-against (like corsi against but taking into account the quality of shots, and producing a number based on how often goals are scored from those locations) he falls in the bottom ~3% of all NHL skaters, after the regression is performed on everyone. On a team and individual level, expected goals against does a better predictive job for future defensive events than something like goals against or shots against. You could maybe estimate Sheary at the ~35th percentile in the same based on that graph (just eye-balling and recalling a normal distribution from memory)

You can interpret that information how you wish, but as far as I know, that's what the chart says.

So basically he’s at the bottom of the league in terms of how easy it should be to score when he’s out there, even if his defensive Corsi is average?

How do we generally account for a wide gap in Expected goals and Corsi in terms of on-ice play? Generally acceptable play for the most part, littered with an ordinate amount of particularly egregious letdowns?

[TrueBlueGED]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So basically he’s at the bottom of the league in terms of how easy it should be to score when he’s out there, even if his defensive Corsi is average?

How do we generally account for a wide gap in Expected goals and Corsi in terms of on-ice play? Generally acceptable play for the most part, littered with an ordinate amount of particularly egregious letdowns?

My interpretation is when his team doesn't have the puck he essentially spins in circles staring at the rafters while the other team gets to the prime scoring areas. 

[dudacek]

Just now, TrueBlueGED said:

My interpretation is when his team doesn't have the puck he essentially spins in circles staring at the rafters while the other team gets to the prime scoring areas. 

But then why is his def Corsi acceptable?

[Neo]

15 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

FWIW, I basically ignore RAPM charts unless I see +/- 1.5 or more, because I'm seriously effin tired of charts and numbers and anything numerical or analytic or anything 

I just glance through them, look for the crazy outliers, and then try to figure out why that might have showed up

Not saying that's what anyone else should do, but I have become fatigued 

You’re finished when we SAY you’re finished!

[TrueBlueGED]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

But then why is his def Corsi acceptable?

Corsi (technically it uses Fenwick, but whatever) is only one component of xG. Part one of this article explains the xG model. 

Video would help put a specific answer to your question, but some plausible explanations are that Vesey backchecks with the ferocity of a sleeping cat, is a reasonable on-puck defender but loses his man so often it'd make Risto blush. What could result is very few shots against because the shots against are such high quality they go into the net with a high frequency.

edit: Worth noting that on his career, Vesey is in the bottom third for corsi against. So last season could be an outlier, or signs of growth. Hard to say.

Edited July 12, 2019 by TrueBlueGED

[Randall Flagg]

41 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So basically he’s at the bottom of the league in terms of how easy it should be to score when he’s out there, even if his defensive Corsi is average?

How do we generally account for a wide gap in Expected goals and Corsi in terms of on-ice play? Generally acceptable play for the most part, littered with an ordinate amount of particularly egregious letdowns?

Perhaps he gets used in an offensive role with good possession linemates, so they don't give up a lot of shots, but when they do he and his teammates are so bad at defense that they're usually high quality chances. Perhaps it's something like you say. Best bet would be to watch a bunch of rangers games to see! 

Bylsma's Sabres that year Lehner had a good save percentage sort of had the inverse problem, I think - their corsi against was fairly high, but it was mostly because of a large number of shots from the outside (probably by design). NST says their expected goals against was 20th, but their corsi against was 28th. People argued that Lehner's save percentage was good, and so he had a good year, but would be countered by folks who showed that his high danger save percentage was like last among starters, and generally by people who weren't convinced by watching him that he was good, that it really was more of the defensemen and bylsma's defensive zone system (whatever that may be - perhaps being content to give players a lot of space at the points and walls in exchange for doing their best to gum up the middle) that contributed to Lehner's stats. Run on sentences. 

When you see statistical extremes, I think it's safe to assume that they may point to an issue in the related field (Vesey's defense), but also wise to do more digging to see what else you can find, and watching a bunch of games would be the best complement to this available in an ideal world. (Of course, not even IIIIII have the time to sit and rewatch Ranger games for Jimmy Vesey)

Edited July 12, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

Yeah, I’m not sure I’m going to enjoy watching Jimmy boy with the Sabres. I’ll pass on the Ranger games ?

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, dudacek said:

Yeah, I’m not sure I’m going to enjoy watching Jimmy boy with the Sabres. I’ll pass on the Ranger games ?

Now, when we trade Risto for Zibanejad, I'll absolutely start rolling film and keep an eye on Jimmy while it's happening ? 

[TrueBlueGED]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yeah, I’m not sure I’m going to enjoy watching Jimmy boy with the Sabres. I’ll pass on the Ranger games ?

He definitely seems like the type of player who is going to earn your ire. 

7 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Now, when we trade Risto for Zibanejad, I'll absolutely start rolling film and keep an eye on Jimmy while it's happening ? 

Bring. Me. Zibanejad!!! 

[LGR4GM]

5 hours ago, nfreeman said:

 

I suppose I'd be happier if your statement didn't so broadly and with such certitude state that a guy who stunk for the Sabres last year was "across the board" better than a guy who is bigger, plays a tougher game and scored more goals -- especially if the difference is defensive play, and both guys played for terrible defensive teams, and Sheary's performance in your most important stat was kinda lousy, albeit less lousy than Vesey's.

Who cares if he's bigger and "plays tougher " if he gets the same results. Lucic plays big and sucks 

[Neo]

We may have the deadest horse of all time within striking distance.

Of course, size does not matter when a 5’4” hockey player scores 164 points in seven games.  No one said differently.  Of course being 7’3” and 317 pounds doesn’t mean you’re going to be good at hockey.  No one said differently.  Of course, if you stink, you stink, regardless of size.  No one said differently.

What people have said, in the world of science, matter, physics, and other natural sciences, is that weight is a consideration when forces oppose one another.   Ceteris paribus, we’d take weight.  That is my Astute Grasp of the Obvious.

The identical Gretzky, twenty pounds heavier, is better than the actual Gretzky.

In the world of web posts, people acknowledge size when looking at the general characteristics of players.   It’s absurd to assume they mean “weight is pre-eminent, or necessary, or the only characteristic being discussed”.  No.One.Said.That.

We have entered the realm of doubling down on the absurd rather than acknowledging our first posts were incomplete.

Edited July 13, 2019 by Neo

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

4 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Corsi (technically it uses Fenwick, but whatever) is only one component of xG. Part one of this article explains the xG model. 

Video would help put a specific answer to your question, but some plausible explanations are that Vesey backchecks with the ferocity of a sleeping cat, is a reasonable on-puck defender but loses his man so often it'd make Risto blush. What could result is very few shots against because the shots against are such high quality they go into the net with a high frequency.

edit: Worth noting that on his career, Vesey is in the bottom third for corsi against. So last season could be an outlier, or signs of growth. Hard to say.

I.m not an Advanced Stats guy , so take it easy on me......this is just a serious question, and here goes...

When we signed Vesey, I thought I read somewhere that he was spending time last season on the PK. If true, how well did he survive in that role (I.m assuming not well?).

Do your stats reflect anything other than even strength? How would PK time effect results(if he actually had PK role).

If he did play on PK, could that be the reason for the part I Bolded about "signs of growth"?  Just curious.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Finland.

[triumph_communes]

12 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Right. "If we trade Risto, the other D may not be able to provide adequate 2nd pair play". 

Risto doesn't provide adequate second pair play. 

He’s never played them. You can’t say that. Statistics have no data on him in that role—- they don’t describe how he would do there. 

[Thorner]

On 7/11/2019 at 10:23 AM, Taro T said:

Bogosian, even without Ristolainen should be slotted into the 3rd D pairing when healthy.  If Miller can't play 2nd pairing with Dahlin, then we have bigger issues than we thought.

The bigger concern would be losing Montour or Miller before Bogosian is ready to return.

Pretty much every D- man that's spent any time up last year except Scandella can play on the right side in a pinch.  They may not (well, that's putting it mildly) have the best RD in the league but they have the deepest.  Even without Risto.

Absolutely.  Pretty sure nobody here has said the return should be anything less than a true 2C or 2RW at minimum.

But, just have to believe that Botterill has a plan to make that happen before October 3.

Agree, except Dahlin will be first pair. 

[Thorner]

On 7/11/2019 at 10:58 AM, dudacek said:

Never mind the surplus issue, I’m really curious about the character of our defence next year.

It’s shaping up to be absolutely loaded with high-risk, high-reward guys who want the puck on their sticks who can skate and move; we have four guys capable of 40-point seasons, all of whom will want PP time, none of whom have shown themselves capable of being shutdown guys. And our top prospects (Pilut and Jokiharju) are of the same mould.

I can’t recall a similar defence core being iced in the NHL. Even the highly skilled groups we’ve seen recently in Nashville and Anaheim had their share of guys who were strong both ways.

Who are our shutdown guys? Are we going to overwhelmed by physical teams? Will our transition game make that irrelevant because we are out of the zone so quickly? Are we going to get a huge boost to our offence?

it’s going to be interesting.

Dahlin's offence is so good that sometimes people forget he was also viewed a a prodigious defenseman because he can, well, defend. We all take for granted his offence increasing, his D play is going to, too. Greatly. He's not some sort of one-trick pony on D. 

Edited July 13, 2019 by Thorny