Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju

[IKnowPhysics]

3 hours ago, JohnC said:

What went wrong with Bennett? Was he simply a tool guy who couldn't convert his assets into production or was he the type of player who could dominate at the lower level but simply wasn't good enough to make the leap into the manly NHL league.? Would a change of scenery possibly resuscitate his up to now disappointing career? 

He hit a sophomore slump and never took the next steps to meet the high production expectations of 4th overall.  And that could be due to tons of different factors: expectations were too high, coaching staff didn't give the right on-ice usage/linemates/quality of competition/total ice time, he didn't develop his own mental/physical/maturation game, coaches didn't develop him.

By 2018/19, Bennett did mature and he modified his game from trying to be that 4th overall skilled offense generator to being better in the role he was put in- 3rd liner.  He plays angrier with more edge, works harder in tough areas, and has been trying to a better two-way player and a PP/PK specialist.  But even this past year hints at more decline for him, as others in Calgary eat up that big ice time (Gaudreau, Monhan, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Backlund) and other younger players start to develop and compete for bottom six roles (like Dube).  Nonetheless, he still retains some offensive skill.

I think if Calgary really looks at his performance this year objectively (8G, 4A, 52GP) and looks at who's coming up in the pipeline, they'll realize he's expendable, especially if they want to keep Jankowski, and they may try to use Bennett to secure a defenseman.  (Side note: The Flames are an interesting trade partner for Buffalo, actually.)  The question is... is Bennett still any good?

He has some interesting rate stats from this past season...

• 0.8 EV G/60 (even strength goals per 60mins) - More than any Sabre except Skinner, Eichel, and Reinhart.
• 0.77 EV ixG/60 (expected even strength goals per 60) - More than any Sabre except Skinner.
• 13.26 EV iCF/60 (even strength Corsi For per 60mins) - More than any Sabres except Eichel and Skinner.
• More EV iHF/60 (hits for per 60mins) than any Sabre.
• But -0.7 EV iPEN+/-/60 (minor penalty taken/drawn differential per 60mins), also more than any Sabre - takes more penalties than he draws

I think he could produce goals given ice time and linemates, but I don't think he's the proven talent who you'd want at 2C.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, IKnowPhysics said:

He hit a sophomore slump and never took the next steps to meet the high production expectations of 4th overall.  And that could be due to tons of different factors: expectations were too high, coaching staff didn't give the right on-ice usage/linemates/quality of competition/total ice time, he didn't develop his own mental/physical/maturation game, coaches didn't develop him.

By 2018/19, Bennett did mature and he modified his game from trying to be that 4th overall skilled offense generator to being better in the role he was put in- 3rd liner.  He plays angrier with more edge, works harder in tough areas, and has been trying to a better two-way player and a PP/PK specialist.  But even this past year hints at more decline for him, as others in Calgary eat up that big ice time (Gaudreau, Monhan, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Backlund) and other younger players start to develop and compete for bottom six roles (like Dube).  Nonetheless, he still retains some offensive skill.

I think if Calgary really looks at his performance this year objectively (8G, 4A, 52GP) and looks at who's coming up in the pipeline, they'll realize he's expendable, especially if they want to keep Jankowski, and they may try to use Bennett to secure a defenseman.  (Side note: The Flames are an interesting trade partner for Buffalo, actually.)  The question is... is Bennett still any good?

He has some interesting rate stats from this past season...

• 0.8 EV G/60 (even strength goals per 60mins) - More than any Sabre except Skinner, Eichel, and Reinhart.
• 0.77 EV ixG/60 (expected even strength goals per 60) - More than any Sabre except Skinner.
• 13.26 EV iCF/60 (even strength Corsi For per 60mins) - More than any Sabres except Eichel and Skinner.
• More EV iHF/60 (hits for per 60mins) than any Sabre.
• But -0.7 EV iPEN+/-/60 (minor penalty taken/drawn differential per 60mins), also more than any Sabre - takes more penalties than he draws

I think he could produce goals given ice time and linemates, but I don't think he's the proven talent who you'd want at 2C.

Thank you for the terrific analysis and write-up. I was secretly eye-balling him as an added/throw in player in a package deal who given a fresh start might revive his still young career. Even if he doesn't develop into a second line player if he can contribute on a third line that would certainly help address a major deficiency of not having enough secondary scoring to augment our over-weighted first line scoring.  

[Andrew Amerk]

8 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Tangent time:  We were real close to drafting Bennett.  Unanimous consensus in 2014 was that Florida was going to take Ekblad, leaving us our choice of Sams.  Rankings were split between the two; and Bennett was the higher ranked skater according to several sources, including Central Scouting.  Several mock drafts had us at Bennett, likely moreso than Reinhart.  Draisaitl/Sabres conversations were late to the party, and while he was an interesting pick pre-draft, consensus was that Draisaitl was a top-five pick, not a top-two pick.

The Sams' first seasons after the draft were pretty similar.  Reinhart put up 0.53P/GP, Bennett 0.48P/GP.  But the next three seasons would tell the tale, as Bennett put up 26P, 26P, and 27P, while Reinhart put up 47P, 50P, and 65P (more than double!) .  Bennett was surpassed by his CGY peers, and it shows in his TOI, whereas Reinhart is playing top line minutes with EIchel: Bennett played 12:38 per game this past season; Reinhart played 20:32 per game.

I, and most others, didn't expect Buffalo to take the risky chance on Draisaitl.  I think the majority of people who second guess that decision use hindsight.  Our decision at the time was between the two Sams, and we chose correctly.  Anyone who thinks things couldn't be any worse for our franchise right now, isn't taking the time to imagine if we had tanked that entire miserable 2013-14 season, and then came away with Bennett instead of Reinhart.

I actually wanted the Sabres to pick Leon, and there’s probably old posts from me stating this that were laughed off. 
 

Oh well. Go get that 2C Kym! 

[Eleven]

8 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

we chose correctly.

Yep.

[kas23]

2 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

He hit a sophomore slump and never took the next steps to meet the high production expectations of 4th overall.  And that could be due to tons of different factors: expectations were too high, coaching staff didn't give the right on-ice usage/linemates/quality of competition/total ice time, he didn't develop his own mental/physical/maturation game, coaches didn't develop him.

By 2018/19, Bennett did mature and he modified his game from trying to be that 4th overall skilled offense generator to being better in the role he was put in- 3rd liner.  He plays angrier with more edge, works harder in tough areas, and has been trying to a better two-way player and a PP/PK specialist.  But even this past year hints at more decline for him, as others in Calgary eat up that big ice time (Gaudreau, Monhan, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Backlund) and other younger players start to develop and compete for bottom six roles (like Dube).  Nonetheless, he still retains some offensive skill.

I think if Calgary really looks at his performance this year objectively (8G, 4A, 52GP) and looks at who's coming up in the pipeline, they'll realize he's expendable, especially if they want to keep Jankowski, and they may try to use Bennett to secure a defenseman.  (Side note: The Flames are an interesting trade partner for Buffalo, actually.)  The question is... is Bennett still any good?

He has some interesting rate stats from this past season...

• 0.8 EV G/60 (even strength goals per 60mins) - More than any Sabre except Skinner, Eichel, and Reinhart.
• 0.77 EV ixG/60 (expected even strength goals per 60) - More than any Sabre except Skinner.
• 13.26 EV iCF/60 (even strength Corsi For per 60mins) - More than any Sabres except Eichel and Skinner.
• More EV iHF/60 (hits for per 60mins) than any Sabre.
• But -0.7 EV iPEN+/-/60 (minor penalty taken/drawn differential per 60mins), also more than any Sabre - takes more penalties than he draws

I think he could produce goals given ice time and linemates, but I don't think he's the proven talent who you'd want at 2C.

Nice analyst. But, you’re missing the biggest factor. Don’t forget the pull ups!  Zero, zilch, nada. It was all downhill from there on in. Seriously, the hockey combine may be a joke, but why not prepare? I see dudes as big as he was doing pull ups at the gym all the time (or used to :()

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

Thank you for the terrific analysis and write-up. I was secretly eye-balling him as an added/throw in player in a package deal who given a fresh start might revive his still young career. Even if he doesn't develop into a second line player if he can contribute on a third line that would certainly help address a major deficiency of not having enough secondary scoring to augment our over-weighted first line scoring.  

At worst he’d replace Girgensons’ presence at a position of greater need.

[Andrew Amerk]

2 hours ago, Eleven said:

Yep.

Nope. 

[Curt]

6 hours ago, kas23 said:

Nice analyst. But, you’re missing the biggest factor. Don’t forget the pull ups!  Zero, zilch, nada. It was all downhill from there on in. Seriously, the hockey combine may be a joke, but why not prepare? I see dudes as big as he was doing pull ups at the gym all the time (or used to :()

If I remember correctly, Bennet had an injury (shoulder?) that he was recovering from at combine time.