Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju

[...]

13 minutes ago, LTS said:

Actually, I don't.  It sounds like you are saying that you understand there are reasons. other than winning, that decisions might be made but then choose to ignore them because you only want to analyze it against winning.  What's the point of your analysis if it doesn't speak to what the Sabres are trying to do and rather speaks to something they are not trying to do?  

This logic is confusing.  Whatever the Sabres "do" is all geared toward winning.   The goal is to win a Stanley Cup.  Every decision is made with this as the ultimate goal.  Therefore every analysis of whatever the team does is in context of achieving the ultimate goal (winning a Cup), no matter how far off that might be.  

[TrueBlueGED]

17 minutes ago, LTS said:

Actually, I don't.  It sounds like you are saying that you understand there are reasons. other than winning, that decisions might be made but then choose to ignore them because you only want to analyze it against winning.  What's the point of your analysis if it doesn't speak to what the Sabres are trying to do and rather speaks to something they are not trying to do?  

 

But the problem with this view is it assumes we know what the Sabres are trying to do in each instance. We don't. 

[nucci]

38 minutes ago, OhMyDahlin said:

Botterill is hoping to win games 2-1 with all this defense and hardly any offense.

need goaltending to do this

Edited July 10, 2019 by nucci

[TrueBlueGED]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You should compare Mitts to Thompson. Id be curious to see what that looks like. 

 

8 minutes ago, WildCard said:

By the way, as far as 'insiders' and the rumors pointing to Botterill's moves, not a single person saw this coming

Please don't 

Sorry, WildCard. I hope you're sitting down. 

[Randall Flagg]

Did anyone post the athletic article that does film breakdown of his first two NHL games? If not here it is:
https://theathletic.com/573862/2018/10/07/video-session-breaking-down-henri-jokiharjus-impressive-game-shift-by-shift/

There are some nice video clips in there. @SwampD they show some defensive zone play against NHLers.

[North Buffalo]

So there is a chance TT gets better or does Casey just stink.

[WildCard]

Just now, North Buffalo said:

So there is a chance TT gets better or does Casey just stink.

Tbf Casey was a rookie, Tage was not. Casey has shown he can do things an NHL player needs to do, Tage has not

[Curt]

21 minutes ago, Skibum said:

Two very promising young players/high draft picks who haven't yet lived up to expectations, nobody's sure if they will. One has maybe shown more than the other so far, but one may have a higher ceiling. Lots of people think one side or the other got fleeced, but only time will tell. I always find these trades really interesting, because there is so much risk in trading young talent that could blossom big-time. 

And like with Kassian for Hodgson, both teams involved will be comparing their careers for a long time. Unless they don't have long careers. 

Jokiharju has exceeded expectations though.  He was a late 1st, 29th overall I think.  He made it to the NHL and played pretty well as a 19 year old defenseman.  I don't see how that is disappointing.

[North Buffalo]

5 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Tbf Casey was a rookie, Tage was not. Casey has shown he can do things an NHL player needs to do, Tage has not

TT was wildly inconsistent and when the few times he was on his games it was special... especially that shot when accurate.

[TrueBlueGED]

2 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

So there is a chance TT gets better or does Casey just stink.

My eye test saw Casey do more promising things this season than Thompson, but neither was an NHL player by metrics or eyes. I have more hope for Casey because he's a year younger and his problems were more of the physically not ready variety than the mentally clueless variety. But really, I'd feel infinitely better about both of them if I could erase the 2018-19 season from my memory. They were both really bad on the whole. 

[bob_sauve28]

1 minute ago, TrueBlueGED said:

My eye test saw Casey do more promising things this season than Thompson, but neither was an NHL player by metrics or eyes. I have more hope for Casey because he's a year younger and his problems were more of the physically not ready variety than the mentally clueless variety. But really, I'd feel infinitely better about both of them if I could erase the 2018-19 season from my memory. They were both really bad on the whole. 

Casey must have felt in over his head at some points in his first, full NHL season. I wouldn't be surprised if he potted 20 goals this season now that he is more experienced as a pro. 

[Randall Flagg]

This is foolish to glean from watching 20 clips from just two games...but IMO Jokiharju's ceiling is sky high. I was impressed as hell by what I saw, against the future stanley cup champions, from a 19 year old. It's summer so we're allowed to be hopeful. 

[Claude_Verret]

6 minutes ago, Curt said:

Jokiharju has exceeded expectations though.  He was a late 1st, 29th overall I think.  He made it to the NHL and played pretty well as a 19 year old defenseman.  I don't see how that is disappointing.

I watched the draft video for Joki on YouTube yesterday.  The commentary right after the Hawks made the pick was that he was a prospect that had moved up draft boards late. It seems like he has continued that trajectory throughout his development in Chicago thus far.  Nylander not so much with us.

Can Chicago fix Nylander and can we F up Jokiharju? Let's plan on drafting a preliminary report circa January 2020.

[Taro T]

16 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

TT was wildly inconsistent and when the few times he was on his games it was special... especially that shot when accurate.

How often, though, was the shot accurate?

Best guess:

Accurate shot count = Goals + 5.

He was awesome at clearing the offensive zone with a shot flying over the net ringing off the boards.

IF he learns to shoot quicker & at about 90-95% of what force he uses now, he might become useful.  If not, he'll never make it.

Edited July 10, 2019 by Taro T

[inkman]

9 hours ago, SwampD said:

Why am I not thrilled that we gave away the more talented player?

Like Grigorenko vs Girgensons?

[Randall Flagg]

He says he's really good friends with Laaksonen, they have the same hometown. 

And he knows 6K. (The goalie Ukko Pekka Luukkonen - no idea if i spelled that right)

[SwampD]

10 minutes ago, inkman said:

Like Grigorenko vs Girgensons?

That was a push.

Before Grigorenko left Colorado for the KHL, their numbers were comparable.

[triumph_communes]

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

 

Sorry, WildCard. I hope you're sitting down. 

Casey stuck with Okposo all year sucked, surprise!

 

Casey in his 6 game stint the year prior, not saddled with idiots:

 

 

People like you really undermine the usefulness of these charts when you take everything in poor context and post stats just to prove a narrative.

 

 

[...]

3 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

People like you really undermine the usefulness of these charts when you take everything in poor context and post stats just to prove a narrative.

Explain the significance of the difference between 68 minutes TOI versus 884 minutes TOI.  I'll hang up and listen.

[TrueBlueGED]

9 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Casey stuck with Okposo all year sucked, surprise!

 

Casey in his 6 game stint the year prior, not saddled with idiots:

 

 

People like you really undermine the usefulness of these charts when you take everything in poor context and post stats just to prove a narrative.

 

 

It's not a narrative that Casey was bad this reason. It's just the harsh reality. As to the charts...a regression with a sample of 68 minutes, such as the one you just posted, is almost certainly useless. I can't be 100% sure without seeing the full model, but I'd bet my life savings that such a model has a p-value around 3 million and a confidence interval that includes the entire range of outcomes. 

Edited July 10, 2019 by TrueBlueGED

[triumph_communes]

18 minutes ago, ... said:

Explain the significance of the difference between 68 minutes TOI versus 884 minutes TOI.  I'll hang up and listen.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1006.4310.pdf

 

Pages 34-37

A snippet:  

Quote

In the introduction, and elsewhere in this paper, we noted that Henrik and Daniel Sedin have a much higher error than other players with a similar number of shifts.

One reason for this high error could be that the twin brothers spend most of their time on the ice together. Daniel spent 92% of his playing time with Henrik, the highest percentage of any other player combination where both players have played over 700 minutes. Because of this high colinearity between the twins, it is difficult to separate the individual effect that each player has on the net goals scored on the ice. It seems as though the model is giving Henrik the bulk of the credit for the offensive contributions, and Daniel most of the credit for defense. Henrik’s defensive rating is strangely low given his low goals against while on the ice. Likewise, Daniel’s offensive rating is unusually low.

i.e., when a player spends the majority of his time with another skater, the player's stats become indistinguishable from each other.

 

Casey spent all year with Okposo and in limited time with Thompson, and Thompson otherwise spent his year with Sobotka outside a few games.  As a result, their charts are going to mimic those players to a large degree, a digression explicity noted by the creator of the statistics.

 

The terms in the regression are built off of a massive dataset, so the error by smaller minutes played put into the model is relatively low.

13 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

It's not a narrative that Casey was bad this reason. It's just the harsh reality. As to the charts...a regression with a sample of 68 minutes, such as the one you just posted, is almost certainly useless. I can't be 100% sure without seeing the full model, but I'd bet my life savings that such a model has a p-value around 3 million and a confidence interval that includes the entire range of outcomes. 

If this is what you think, then you really have no clue how this model was created.  Read the links above.

 

 

Edited July 10, 2019 by triumph_communes

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

This is foolish to glean from watching 20 clips from just two games...but IMO Jokiharju's ceiling is sky high. I was impressed as hell by what I saw, against the future stanley cup champions, from a 19 year old. It's summer so we're allowed to be hopeful. 

My favorite clip is his zone entry where he goes from blue line to blue line and then once he enters the zone immediately recognizes the space to his right and cuts hard into it allowing the opposing player to simply glide off towards the middle where Kaiju was originally driving too. Clean entry with the opportunity to set up teammates in space. 

 

11 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

It's not a narrative that Casey was bad this reason. It's just the harsh reality. As to the charts...a regression with a sample of 68 minutes, such as the one you just posted, is almost certainly useless. I can't be 100% sure without seeing the full model, but I'd bet my life savings that such a model has a p-value around 3 million and a confidence interval that includes the entire range of outcomes. 

I was actually wonder what the CI was for the 68minutes. Either way, I think good players can make others better. Bad players make mediocre players worse. Casey was clearly bad last year and that was partly due to age, usage, and linemates. Either way we can see that he had a negative overall impact and needs to work a lot this summer to physically be ready for NHL minutes. 

[WildCard]

"Henri is a young, mobile defenseman who has shown he can compete at the NHL level," Sabres General Manager Jason Botterill said. "His international success last season only furthered his development and we are excited to add him to our current group of defensemen."

https://www.nhl.com/sabres/news/sabres-acquire-henri-jokiharju-from-blackhawks-for-alexander-nylander/c-308219208

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

My favorite clip is his zone entry where he goes from blue line to blue line and then once he enters the zone immediately recognizes the space to his right and cuts hard into it allowing the opposing player to simply glide off towards the middle where Kaiju was originally driving too. Clean entry with the opportunity to set up teammates in space.

Link?

[...]

3 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Casey spent all year with Okposo and in limited time with Thompson, and Thompson otherwise spent his year with Sobotka outside a few games.  As a result, their charts are going to mimic those players to a large degree, a digression explicity noted by the creator of the statistics.

The terms in the regression are built off of a massive dataset, so the error by smaller minutes played put into the model is relatively low.

Are you saying Casey spent 92% of his time with Okposo and TT 92% of his time with Sobotka?  

Since the league is littered with pairs, are you arguing the fancy stats aren't built to account for the effect one might have on the other within a normal context?

[Randall Flagg]

@triumph_communes Natural stat trick says Casey played 500 of his 825 5v5 minutes without Okposo. Statistics sucks so I'm far less familiar with the branch as a whole than almost any other branch of mathematics, but I'm pretty comfortable with the regression competently isolating him from Kyle.