Crusader1969 Posted March 13, 2020 Report Posted March 13, 2020 On 3/9/2020 at 1:25 PM, WildCard said: Do we trade out of #1 if we get it? trade down or trade it away completely? Quote
GASabresIUFAN Posted March 13, 2020 Report Posted March 13, 2020 If the Sabres end up somehow drafting at the top of the draft, you make that pick unless Edm offers McDavid. 1 Quote
LGR4GM Posted March 25, 2020 Report Posted March 25, 2020 The top 5 really interest me in this draft. I might say top 4 but for now top 5. I would say that Rossi, Sutzle, and Lafrieneire are NHL ready or close to it. Byfield will probably graduate but mentally he isn't ready and that isn't because he isn't a smart player. I am saying that because of his age and what we know about cognitive development. Quote
GASabresIUFAN Posted April 9, 2020 Report Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/sportsnets-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-rankings-april/ Top 10: Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Holtz, Rossi, Drysdale, Raymond, Perfetti, Holloway, and Askarov https://www.mckeenshockey.com/ Top 10: Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Raymond, Holtz, Drysdale, Rossi, Perfetti, Zary, Sanderson https://www.nhl.com/news/alexis-lafreniere-rated-number-one-north-american-skater-final-ranking/c-316535070 TOP 8 NA: Skaters: Lafreniere, Byfield, Drysdale, Sanderson, Perfetti, Rossi, Quinn, Guhle TOP 5 INT: Skaters: Stutzle, Hotlz, Lundell, Raymond, Amirov https://dobberprospects.com/robinson-2020-nhl-draft-rankings-april-2020/ Top 10: Byfield, Lafreniere, Rossi, Raymond, Stutzle, Holtz, Drysdale, Perfetti, Lundell, and Jarvis https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-alexis-lafreniere-solidifies-status-as-hockey-s-top-prospect-1.1461675 Button from 3/30 Top 10: Lafreniere, Stutzle, Byfield, Perfetti, Drysdale, Quinn, Askarov, Rossi, Raymond, Lapierre (He has Holtz (13) and Lundell (16)) Assuming the NHL doesn't do anything "special" to this draft, the Sabres currently sit 7th. Under the current rules we could draft 1(6.5%) 2 (6.8%), 3 (7.1%), 7 (26%), 8 (39.5%), 9 (13.1%) or 10 (1%). So lets assume we are drafting 7th or 8th. Since 2013 we'll have drafted 7th or 8th four times - Risto (2013 8th), Nylander (2016 8th), Mitts (2017 8th) and Cozens (2019 7th). This year will be the 5th. Based on recent rankings it looks like forwards Rossi, Perfetti, Holtz, and Raymond are our most likely targets. I'm going to assume Byfield, Lafreniere and Stutzle are likely going 1-3 and Drysdale will be the 1st D taken. Therefore my guess is Perfetti is going to be the pick. Biggest issue is that he isn't an explosive skater (aka not a burner like Eichel), but otherwise is a good skater. Stats: 2018-19: 63gp 37g 37a 74 pts 2019-20: 61 gp 37g 74a 111pts. From Sportsnet.ca Quote 8. Cole Perfetti, LW/C, Saginaw Spirit (OHL): An elite hockey brain and an abundance of character will allow him to transition easily to the NHL. It may not be as early as next year, but down the road he’s a top-six player all day long. Edited April 9, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN Quote
LGR4GM Posted April 9, 2020 Report Posted April 9, 2020 I like Raymond over Perfetti but I am still a month away from the deep dive being even remotely done. If you want to get some breakdowns and highlights of a bunch of guys, don't take my word. Do your own research and avoid group think. Here is a youtuber with lots of highlights and discussion of top guys. https://www.youtube.com/user/yann987/videos Quote
LGR4GM Posted April 9, 2020 Report Posted April 9, 2020 Dark Horse Candidate at 7-9th overall. Seth Jarvis. The fact he is consistently ranked outside the top 10 is weird. In the last 20 years, he is I think 3rd in the WHL for ppg. He's ranked in the 20's for some which is insane. https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/201952/seth-jarvis Quote
LGR4GM Posted May 22, 2020 Report Posted May 22, 2020 In the course of the conversation about Cozens going back to juniors, I looked up the WHL scoring. Cozens sits in third overall for ppg. So what? That isn't the interesting part. The interesting part is who sits at 2nd overall in the WHL at ppg... Seth Jarvis. Further to that point, Jarvis lead his team in points by 28. At 7, the Sabres could do a lot worse than taking Jarvis who I think is shockingly underrated. I love this kid. 1 Quote
GASabresIUFAN Posted May 22, 2020 Report Posted May 22, 2020 Could size and position be working against him somewhat in a pretty deep forward group? Jack Quinn also? Quote
LGR4GM Posted May 22, 2020 Report Posted May 22, 2020 (edited) So my top 5 are: Lafrienere Byfield Rossi Raymond Stutzle .... my number 6 Jarvis. There are about 3-4 players I considered here but Jarvis has this pop factor on the ice I like. His work ethic and skating is great. He's 5'10" which is the only reason he isn't ranked higher IMPO. He is also a winger. That said, if this kid gains about 15lbs of muslce (he's listed at 172, so think of him at about 187) he is going to destroy teams. I love him and I want him. His skating is elite and he his motor is excellent. I think his stickhandling is is good but his shot could be heavier. That said, he has a lot of shot options. I want a line of Cozens - Jarvis in the future. It would be electric. Edited May 22, 2020 by LGR4GM spelling Quote
ubkev Posted May 22, 2020 Report Posted May 22, 2020 Thanks to @LGR4GM for the Draft Dynasty YouTube channel. I can listen to skid row Marty Biron talk prospects all damn day! 1 Quote
LGR4GM Posted May 22, 2020 Report Posted May 22, 2020 11 minutes ago, ubkev said: Thanks to @LGR4GM for the Draft Dynasty YouTube channel. I can listen to skid row Marty Biron talk prospects all damn day! I don't always agree with his conclusions but it is a great jumping off point to learn about prospects. Quote
ubkev Posted May 22, 2020 Report Posted May 22, 2020 1 minute ago, LGR4GM said: I don't always agree with his conclusions but it is a great jumping off point to learn about prospects. I'm a few videos deep. His analysis seems alright enough so far and it beats the hell out of stat sheets for me. 1 Quote
LGR4GM Posted May 22, 2020 Report Posted May 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, ubkev said: I'm a few videos deep. His analysis seems alright enough so far and it beats the hell out of stat sheets for me. Oh yea. I love listening to his Marty Bironesque accent. He also talks about the downside of a player and I like that. 2 Quote
dudacek Posted May 22, 2020 Report Posted May 22, 2020 Interesting piece in the Athletic on why teams are much better off grabbing defencemen over forwards after the first round. https://theathletic.com/1828498/2020/05/21/why-nhl-teams-should-gamble-on-defencemen-over-forwards-later-in-the-draft/ The gist is that you have better odds of getting a good players. Scouts are really good at identifying top forward talent, but good defencemen regularly slip down the board. 62 per cent of the NHL’s top six forwards were picked in the first, compared to less than half of the top three D. Quote
LGR4GM Posted May 22, 2020 Report Posted May 22, 2020 And that is why you don't draft defenders over forwards at the end of round 1. 2 Quote
DHawerchuk10 Posted May 22, 2020 Report Posted May 22, 2020 4 hours ago, LGR4GM said: In the course of the conversation about Cozens going back to juniors, I looked up the WHL scoring. Cozens sits in third overall for ppg. So what? That isn't the interesting part. The interesting part is who sits at 2nd overall in the WHL at ppg... Seth Jarvis. Further to that point, Jarvis lead his team in points by 28. At 7, the Sabres could do a lot worse than taking Jarvis who I think is shockingly underrated. I love this kid. Excellent detective work here! This guy wasn't even on my radar (due to ignorance on the player), but I have to say, you bring up some compelling points and he shows pretty well. Quote
rakish Posted May 23, 2020 Report Posted May 23, 2020 7 hours ago, dudacek said: Interesting piece in the Athletic on why teams are much better off grabbing defencemen over forwards after the first round. https://theathletic.com/1828498/2020/05/21/why-nhl-teams-should-gamble-on-defencemen-over-forwards-later-in-the-draft/ The gist is that you have better odds of getting a good players. Scouts are really good at identifying top forward talent, but good defencemen regularly slip down the board. 62 per cent of the NHL’s top six forwards were picked in the first, compared to less than half of the top three D. I don't get the Athletic, so I haven't read it, but I'm fairly certain he is wrong because he makes a conclusion that the data doesn't support. I think the correct conclusion is ligers, that because 62% of the top-six forwards come in the first round, you must use your premium assets on forwards, and try to find defensemen other ways. If you look at drafts from 2005-2015 picks 100-250 Forwards seventeen totaltotal 18.43 seventeen number of picks 412 seventeen games played 7595 eighteen totaltotal 30.01 eighteen number of picks 126 eighteen games played 3781 totaltotal 19.74 nineteen number of picks 82 nineteen games played 1619 picks 100-250 Defensemen seventeen totaltotal 9.91 seventeen number of picks 268 seventeen games played 2656 eightteen totaltotal 27.32 eightteen number of picks 57 eightteen games played 1557 nineteen totaltotal 18.80 nineteen number of picks 51 nineteen games played 959 picks 29-100 forwards seventeen totaltotal 47.26 seventeen number of picks 355 seventeen games played 16777 eighteen totaltotal 68.07 eighteen number of picks 29 eighteen games played 1974 nineteen totaltotal 70.90 nineteen number of picks 21 nineteen games played 1489 picks 29-100 defensemen seventeen totaltotal 31.91 seventeen number of picks 200 seventeen games played 6383 eighteen totaltotal 61.71 eighteen number of picks 7 eighteen games played 432 nineteen totaltotal 56.40 nineteen number of picks 10 nineteen games played 564 So after pick 100, you expect to get 10 NHL games per first time (17 year old) pick. Everything else is much better, forwards are over 18, overagers well above either number. What you need to do is pick more overagers, and sign more undrafted players, because defensive talent isn't as obvious at 17 when most players are drafted. 1 Quote
LGR4GM Posted May 23, 2020 Report Posted May 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, rakish said: I don't get the Athletic, so I haven't read it, but I'm fairly certain he is wrong because he makes a conclusion that the data doesn't support. I think the correct conclusion is ligers, that because 62% of the top-six forwards come in the first round, you must use your premium assets on forwards, and try to find defensemen other ways. If you look at drafts from 2005-2015 picks 100-250 Forwards seventeen totaltotal 18.43 seventeen number of picks 412 seventeen games played 7595 eighteen totaltotal 30.01 eighteen number of picks 126 eighteen games played 3781 totaltotal 19.74 nineteen number of picks 82 nineteen games played 1619 picks 100-250 Defensemen seventeen totaltotal 9.91 seventeen number of picks 268 seventeen games played 2656 eightteen totaltotal 27.32 eightteen number of picks 57 eightteen games played 1557 nineteen totaltotal 18.80 nineteen number of picks 51 nineteen games played 959 picks 29-100 forwards seventeen totaltotal 47.26 seventeen number of picks 355 seventeen games played 16777 eighteen totaltotal 68.07 eighteen number of picks 29 eighteen games played 1974 nineteen totaltotal 70.90 nineteen number of picks 21 nineteen games played 1489 picks 29-100 defensemen seventeen totaltotal 31.91 seventeen number of picks 200 seventeen games played 6383 eighteen totaltotal 61.71 eighteen number of picks 7 eighteen games played 432 nineteen totaltotal 56.40 nineteen number of picks 10 nineteen games played 564 So after pick 100, you expect to get 10 NHL games per first time (17 year old) pick. Everything else is much better, forwards are over 18, overagers well above either number. What you need to do is pick more overagers, and sign more undrafted players, because defensive talent isn't as obvious at 17 when most players are drafted. 21 minutes ago, rakish said: I don't get the Athletic, so I haven't read it, but I'm fairly certain he is wrong because he makes a conclusion that the data doesn't support. I think the correct conclusion is ligers, that because 62% of the top-six forwards come in the first round, you must use your premium assets on forwards, and try to find defensemen other ways. If you look at drafts from 2005-2015 picks 100-250 Forwards seventeen totaltotal 18.43 seventeen number of picks 412 seventeen games played 7595 eighteen totaltotal 30.01 eighteen number of picks 126 eighteen games played 3781 totaltotal 19.74 nineteen number of picks 82 nineteen games played 1619 picks 100-250 Defensemen seventeen totaltotal 9.91 seventeen number of picks 268 seventeen games played 2656 eightteen totaltotal 27.32 eightteen number of picks 57 eightteen games played 1557 nineteen totaltotal 18.80 nineteen number of picks 51 nineteen games played 959 picks 29-100 forwards seventeen totaltotal 47.26 seventeen number of picks 355 seventeen games played 16777 eighteen totaltotal 68.07 eighteen number of picks 29 eighteen games played 1974 nineteen totaltotal 70.90 nineteen number of picks 21 nineteen games played 1489 picks 29-100 defensemen seventeen totaltotal 31.91 seventeen number of picks 200 seventeen games played 6383 eighteen totaltotal 61.71 eighteen number of picks 7 eighteen games played 432 nineteen totaltotal 56.40 nineteen number of picks 10 nineteen games played 564 So after pick 100, you expect to get 10 NHL games per first time (17 year old) pick. Everything else is much better, forwards are over 18, overagers well above either number. What you need to do is pick more overagers, and sign more undrafted players, because defensive talent isn't as obvious at 17 when most players are drafted. Exactly. You can find defenders in other places but top 6 forwards, not so much. Quote
dudacek Posted May 23, 2020 Report Posted May 23, 2020 (edited) I think you might looking at it through the other end of the lens, but I don’t see the author as disagreeing with you guys at all, just making a different point. His point was basically that you have a much better chance of getting a PK Subban or Shea Weber after round one than you do Patrice Bergeron or Nikita Kucherov, probably because scouts are better able to identify what make a talented forward at 18 than a good defenceman. His rankings are based on ice time. Edited May 23, 2020 by dudacek 1 Quote
LGR4GM Posted May 27, 2020 Report Posted May 27, 2020 (edited) Corey Pronman's rankings. Not a fan of Pronmans rankings for what it is worth. Here is a perfect example why I dislike Pronman " He doesn’t raise to the top tier of the draft due to his size and speed combination". The player in question is Rossi and he says earlier that "Rossi’s skating is good, but he’s more of a skill player than a speedy player. He’s not the quickest small player you’ll ever see, but he has a powerful stride and good edge work to elude checks." And yet Pronman almost immediately discounts that because of his size. It's a bad way to draft. https://theathletic.com/1769140/2020/05/27/pronmans-2020-nhl-draft-board-top-122-prospects/ Edited May 27, 2020 by LGR4GM Quote
Marvin Posted May 27, 2020 Report Posted May 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: Corey Pronman's rankings. Not a fan of Pronmans rankings for what it is worth. Here is a perfect example why I dislike Pronman " He doesn’t raise to the top tier of the draft due to his size and speed combination". The player in question is Rossi and he says earlier that "Rossi’s skating is good, but he’s more of a skill player than a speedy player. He’s not the quickest small player you’ll ever see, but he has a powerful stride and good edge work to elude checks." And yet Pronman almost immediately discounts that because of his size. It's a bad way to draft. https://theathletic.com/1769140/2020/05/27/pronmans-2020-nhl-draft-board-top-122-prospects/ Thank you. The obsession with size is a leftover from the hook-and-hold era. Quote
LGR4GM Posted May 27, 2020 Report Posted May 27, 2020 I gotta say, I might be making some changes to my top 5. Changing my top 10 for sure. Quote
SwampD Posted May 27, 2020 Report Posted May 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, E4 ... Ke2 said: Thank you. The obsession with size is a leftover from the hook-and-hold era. You’re talking about the playoffs, right? Quote
LGR4GM Posted May 27, 2020 Report Posted May 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, SwampD said: You’re talking about the playoffs, right? Rossi is exactly the type of player you want in the playoffs. Quote
dudacek Posted May 27, 2020 Report Posted May 27, 2020 1 hour ago, LGR4GM said: Corey Pronman's rankings. Not a fan of Pronmans rankings for what it is worth. Here is a perfect example why I dislike Pronman " He doesn’t raise to the top tier of the draft due to his size and speed combination". The player in question is Rossi and he says earlier that "Rossi’s skating is good, but he’s more of a skill player than a speedy player. He’s not the quickest small player you’ll ever see, but he has a powerful stride and good edge work to elude checks." And yet Pronman almost immediately discounts that because of his size. It's a bad way to draft. https://theathletic.com/1769140/2020/05/27/pronmans-2020-nhl-draft-board-top-122-prospects/ I find it interesting that that size and speed have increasingly factored into Pronman’s rankings in recent years when he used to be about skill above all else. I think it’s an outgrowth of some players he liked not being strong enough or fast enough to take advantage of their skill at the NHL level. One prime example, of course, being our Casey Mitts, who Pronman absolutely loved back in 2018. Quote
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