2020 Draft Rankings Not Soon Enough...

[Shootica]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I can see it. But to me there's a chasm between Rossi and Perfetti so it's not quite roses. 

It would require someone picking Holtz/Perfetti/Askarov in the top 7.  Not out of the equation by any means.

[Curt]

43 minutes ago, Shootica said:

It would require someone picking Holtz/Perfetti/Askarov in the top 7.  Not out of the equation by any means.

I think there is a chance that a few other guys go in the top 7 too.  Im not saying it’s probable, but it just takes one team to really like a player

Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Rossi, Perfetti, Raymond, Holtz, Quinn, Drysdale, Sanderson, Lundell, Askarov, Amirov, Jarvis

Thats 14 guys who I think have a chance to go top 7.

[Curt]

Here are my Top-14 Rankings separates into tiers.  Just for fun and discussion.

Alexis Lafreniere

Quinton Byfield.  
Marco Rossi

Cole Perfetti.  
Lucas Raymond.  
Tim Stutzle 

Jake Sanderson.  
Anton Lundell.  
Seth Jarvis.  
Yaroslav Askarov

Jamie Drysdale.  
Rodion Amirov.  
Jack Quinn.  
Alexander Holtz 

I’m working on my next tier now.

[dudacek]

38 minutes ago, Curt said:

Here are my Top-14 Rankings separates into tiers.  Just for fun and discussion.

Alexis Lafreniere

Quinton Byfield.  
Marco Rossi

Cole Perfetti.  
Lucas Raymond.  
Tim Stutzle 

Jake Sanderson.  
Anton Lundell.  
Seth Jarvis.  
Yaroslav Askarov

Jamie Drysdale.  
Rodion Amirov.  
Jack Quinn.  
Alexander Holtz 

I’m working on my next tier now.

Drysdale is the obvious huge question mark to me.

One of the few 17-year-old defenders ever to play for Canada at the WJC, and without a man’s body yet, an elite skater who put up a PPG in the OHL, plays a premium position, ranked between 3 and 7 on the scouting service lists I’ve seen

What’s not to like?

[Curt]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Drysdale is the obvious huge question mark to me.

One of the few 17-year-old defenders ever to play for Canada at the WJC, and without a man’s body yet, an elite skater who put up a PPG in the OHL, plays a premium position, ranked between 3 and 7 on the scouting service lists I’ve seen

What’s not to like?

I like him ok.  

Honestly I haven’t looked at the D as closely as the forwards because Sabres, and haven’t looked at Drysdale specifically in some time because I figure he’ll be gone by 8, so maybe I should take another look.

After a quick glance at the numbers I see that he didn’t put up a lot of points on a bad PP, and for some reason I had it I’m my head that he had killed it on the PP and not so much at ES.  Guess I’ve gotta watch him on film again.

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Drysdale is the obvious huge question mark to me.

One of the few 17-year-old defenders ever to play for Canada at the WJC, and without a man’s body yet, an elite skater who put up a PPG in the OHL, plays a premium position, ranked between 3 and 7 on the scouting service lists I’ve seen

What’s not to like?

I absolutely draft him if he's there at 8. Shrug. 

If we can't trade the pick for a worthy return, that is. 

Edited September 22, 2020 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

Remember the name Ozzy Wiesblatt. 

[LGR4GM]

Hope the Sabres call this name with their 2nd round pick: Tristen Robins

Quote

Statistically-speaking, his even strength and primary point rates both ranked behind only Jarvis and Zary in the WHL — and ahead of players like Neighbours, Wiesblatt, McClennon and Sourdiff.

https://theathletic.com/2019544/2020/09/21/wheeler-updated-ranking-for-the-2020-nhl-drafts-top-100-prospects/

[Thorner]

That's SourDIFF. No "mister", accent on the DIFF. 

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Remember the name Ozzy Wiesblatt. 

Neat backstory on the kid and his family.

Both parents are deaf and the family communicates with ASL.

Single Mom has raised 4 boys and a daughter. 3 boys play junior hockey and the youngest is in AAA Bantam. She would be a busy lady and we can guess where all of her earnings go.

https://www.thestar.com/calgary/2018/07/23/hockey-moms-deafness-pushed-her-boys-to-be-better.html

 

[jsb]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Hope the Sabres call this name with their 2nd round pick: Tristen Robins

https://theathletic.com/2019544/2020/09/21/wheeler-updated-ranking-for-the-2020-nhl-drafts-top-100-prospects/

What do you think of the Russian kid in the 2nd round.... Marat Khusnutdinov, he's been shooting up the ranks lately.

I'm also curious why Holtz gets disrespected from you guys, all the draft gurus love this kid and have him ranked higher than Jarvis, Lundell and some other highly regarded guys here. 

Edited September 22, 2020 by jsb

[Brawndo]

16 hours ago, jsb said:

What do you think of the Russian kid in the 2nd round.... Marat Khusnutdinov, he's been shooting up the ranks lately.

I'm also curious why Holtz gets disrespected from you guys, all the draft gurus love this kid and have him ranked higher than Jarvis, Lundell and some other highly regarded guys here. 

Watch this if you have a chance. There are concerns about defensive play and the fact most of his shots come from low danger areas. 

He has the talent, but also appears to need  a lot of work. 

A little to much work for 8th Overall IMO

 

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Watch this if you have a chance. There are concerns about defensive play and the fact most of his shots come from low danger areas. 

He has the talent, but also appears to need  a lot of work. 

A little to much work for 8th Overall IMO

 

I read somewhere where that video is singularly responsible for Holtz's value dropping on fan boards across the league. Apparently scouts don't necessarily agree with its conclusions.

[Thorner]

Thing about Scouts is, for any player even in the conversation as a top 10-15 pick there are going to be several scouts ranking that player's NHL comparable as Ovechkin or Joe Thornton. It's just the way things go - sometimes you do get Ovi, but more often when you are advertised to get Ovi you get Laine - not only "not Ovi" but a player I wouldn't even take on my team, in his case. Guy can sure rip it, though. Reminds me of Happy Gilmore. 

It's especially dangerous with pure goal scorers, as it's often the most valued attribute in a prospect, sometimes to the point of a blind-eye being turned to other, determinant factors. There's far too much of a necessary floor component to a top 10 pick for me to use one on a player like Holtz, imo. 

Edited September 22, 2020 by Thorny

[Brawndo]

51 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I read somewhere where that video is singularly responsible for Holtz's value dropping on fan boards across the league. Apparently scouts don't necessarily agree with its conclusions.

Are those scouts who find analytics to be voodoo BS?

The analytics portion is what made me nervous. 

I would like to see if he has made improvements in these areas this season. Will Scouching made this video based on seven games he watched last season,  Holtz won't get to seven regular season games prior to the October 6th, but between pre season and regular season games there might be enough evidence of improvement. 

 

 

 

[dudacek]

Just now, Brawndo said:

Are those scouts who find analytics to be voodoo BS?

The analytics portion is what made me nervous. 

I would like to see if he has made improvements in these areas this season. Will Scouching made this video based on seven games he watched last season,  Holtz won't get to seven regular season games prior to the October 6th, but between pre season and regular season games there might be enough evidence of improvement. 

 

 

 

I have no idea. Just popped into my head when I saw the post.

Can we trust analytics compiled outside the NHL? What should we conclude if our new analytics-heavy scouting braintrust picks Holtz?

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I have no idea. Just popped into my head when I saw the post.

Can we trust analytics compiled outside the NHL? What should we conclude if our new analytics-heavy scouting braintrust picks Holtz?

You really should not “trust” or “not trust” analytics.  It all depends on what numbers you are talking about and the specific situation of the player.  

[Brawndo]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I have no idea. Just popped into my head when I saw the post.

Can we trust analytics compiled outside the NHL? What should we conclude if our new analytics-heavy scouting braintrust picks Holtz?

Most of the data is complied by watching film and there are computer programs that analyze it. So I imagine the data would be complied the same across the leagues by NHL Teams.  There would be variance in the number of camera angle, but the data Should be universal. 
 

The answer to the second question it probably demonstrates they are not very heavy into analytics based on that pick. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

You really should not “trust” or “not trust” analytics.  It all depends on what numbers you are talking about and the specific situation of the player.  

Brawndo addresses this a bit below, but I have read material that suggests some NHL teams consider the stuff that is in the public realm as unsophisticated, and that there is a mistrust of how things like shot attempts and high danger chances are tracked, similar to how we used to be skeptical of the Boston Garden shot clock. I don't think its a mistake to wonder about the quality of data coming out from the lower levels of the game.

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

Most of the data is complied by watching film and there are computer programs that analyze it. So I imagine the data would be complied the same across the leagues by NHL Teams.  There would be variance in the number of camera angle, but the data Should be universal.

The answer to the second question it probably demonstrates they are not very heavy into analytics based on that pick. 

Or are they looking through a different analytics lens than Scouching does?

Edited September 23, 2020 by dudacek

[Brawndo]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Brawndo addresses this a bit below, but there I have read material that suggests some NHL teams consider the stuff that is in the public realm as unsophisticated, and that there is a mistrust of how things like shot attempts and high danger chances are tracked, similar to how we used to be skeptical of the Boston Garden shot clock.

Or are they looking through a different analytics lens than Scouching does?

It’s possible. Given the fact that both Kris Baker and John Vogl both have mentioned Holtz there maybe some fire to go along with the smoke. Baker is extremely high on him and given that Devine is still a scout with the team, that could be Baker’s Source. 

Nightingale Analytics Abilities are still the great unknown. He has been in the Front Office for Four GMs, and the First Three demonstrated little to none proper use of analytics. Although I think the blame is 95% on the GMs rather then Nightingale.

Although Scouching has as much experience drafting players as Adams does. 

😂

 

[Thorner]

Baker isn't all that reliable in my mind. His breakdowns and stuff are informative and good but every Sabres prospect to him is the next coming. Holtz could end up good but Baker being high on him doesn't mean much, I know he (among others) was exceptionally high on Mittelstadt too pre draft 

Hope in this case his admiration for Holtz isn't an indication he'll be the pick.

Edited September 23, 2020 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

15 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Watch this if you have a chance. There are concerns about defensive play and the fact most of his shots come from low danger areas. 

He has the talent, but also appears to need  a lot of work. 

A little to much work for 8th Overall IMO

 

Bingo. The guy has a great shot and works hard on the ice but it doesn't all come together into a positive product because he lacks some things. Holtz for me is below Raymond at this stage and below a Jarvis. I want a player who is creating chaos and you have to account for, Holtz is a little too much of upgraded Olofsson for my tastes. 

[Curt]

@rakish, with the draft almost upon us, would you kindly share with us your model’s rankings for 2020 draft prospects?

I would appreciate it very much.  I think that normalized statistical analysis, such as what your model does, can be a useful part of prospect evaluation.

[JohnC]

On 1/14/2020 at 5:32 PM, PerreaultForever said:

Rossi has some impressive skills but I'd prefer to see us add some size and grit along with the skill.Our initial 2nd line could have been quite impressive if it had a true power forward on it rather than Sobodka. 

You can be a tad smallish and still have grit to go along with your superior skills. When drafting the time tested approach is to go with the best player on your board. If you want to add size and grit to the roster there are other means to do that. If Rossi is on the board when we pick (improbable) and he is our highest rated player he should be selected. 

[PerreaultForever]

8 minutes ago, JohnC said:

You can be a tad smallish and still have grit to go along with your superior skills. When drafting the time tested approach is to go with the best player on your board. If you want to add size and grit to the roster there are other means to do that. If Rossi is on the board when we pick (improbable) and he is our highest rated player he should be selected. 

I don't disagree with this, I'm just saying I'd prefer some more size, so if there is a choice between 2 guys fairly equal in value I'd go with the bigger one. For the stat analytic view I guess size would be weighted more among my variables that I input into the algorithm.