2020 Draft Rankings Not Soon Enough...

[Crusader1969]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

In the last 2 years I would say my view of drafting has completely changed and also pick224 has helped. 

How so?

[kas23]

5 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I've been questioning if they might pass on Lafreniere and take a center.

Everyone seems to be set on them taking him but could they throw a wrench into it? Not likely, but not impossible.

If they are going to pass on Lafreniere, they probably should just trade them pick. It would likely unlock more value. 

[Crusader1969]

so Rossi, Raymond or Holtz? 

are these the top 3 reasonable draft choices for the Sabres?

[dudacek]

49 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

so Rossi, Raymond or Holtz? 

are these the top 3 reasonable draft choices for the Sabres?

I think so, but you can add Perfetti as well if Detroit doesn't like him as much as is rumoured.

Stuetzle, Byfield and Lafreniere will be gone, and its hard to believe that at least one defenceman won't be taken before our turn. (Drysdale, Sanderson, or both).

If "the big 7" forwards are gone, it will be interesting if we take a D, or grab from the next tier of forwards.

[Crusader1969]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think so, but you can add Perfetti as well if Detroit doesn't like him as much as is rumoured.

Stuetzle, Byfield and Lafreniere will be gone, and its hard to believe that at least one defenceman won't be taken before our turn. (Drysdale, Sanderson, or both).

If "the big 7" forwards are gone, it will be interesting if we take a D, or grab from the next tier of forwards.

how about a generational goalie????  ducks for cover ?

[LGR4GM]

On 8/11/2020 at 3:48 PM, Crusader1969 said:

How so?

I used to start with a consensus ranking where I would take about 5 lists from writers and average out their guys to build my list. I would then adjust guys up or down based on things like production and scouting reports and video but I was very hesitant to push guys to far up or down from those initial rankings. Now, I start with a rough list in a similar way and then dive deep into the production and start singling out guys that are ranked lower than they should. I eventually work my way through most guys on the list but for example if Tyler Tullio is currently ranked anywhere from 38-80. Yet as I have mentioned, he produced similar prime even strength production to Jack Quinn. Quinn had more goals but also had more pp points where as Tullio had what I am guess was limited pp time. Quinn is ranked anywhere from 6-20 as opposed to 38-80 on my board that 18 player gap would be far less. Quinn is the better prospect but Tullio is a pretty good player and shouldn't be faded that much. 

Not every player who scores in their draft year works out and you have to sort defenders and adjust their scoring to get them to fit right, however it helps you find players that are being undervalued and it is how you nail those 2nd round and 3rd round picks more often. Brayden Point was ranked 19th and if you include his pp primary he jumps up to 10th. Yet he was drafted in the 3rd round, 79th overall. He should have never slid that far because it made too much sense in that draft year to take him in the 2nd. 

Edited August 13, 2020 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

So Marco Rossi is another example. Rossi is old for his draft class so that is a consideration and he played on a really good team, although he drove that team. Rossi is ranked anywhere from 4-9 and his average is 6.5 yet he scored a hair below Lefrienere (0.1 less) while playing in a far better defensive league. Lefrienere is the same age basically as Rossi so that is something to raise flags and require more digging.

Then we have Byfield who is a year younger than both these guys and produced at almost the same rate. Again we would need to dig deeper but this gives us a jumping off point. 

7th on last years ESPP (even strength primary points) list is Kaliyev so the next question is why shouldn't he be drafted in the top say 15 or 20? For him their were work ethic questions around his defensive game, personally if I am drafting, say 31, I take that gamble because the skating and game tape doesn't raise a flag and it is just some questions around his 2-way game. Worse outcome is you get a 2nd or 3rd line sniper and that's great value. 

[LGR4GM]

I have written these in chunks because I think it is easier for ppl. I just want to finish by saying that I have emphasized production but that isn't the end all or be all. It gives you a starting place to analyze players and start asking more question. It helps build a player profile. 

Rumor is Detoit (Yzerman) wants Cole Perfetti. It has been clear for years that Tampa under Yzerman was using production analytics to target players. Perfetti is ranked 4th in this draft class for ESPP and PPP (Powerplay Primary Points) and look who is rumored to want him at 4th overall. Cole is ranked 4th through 9th with an average of 7th. 

Last year the Red Wings took guys like Mastrimone 54th (19th ESPP), Grewe 66th (13th ESPP), Albert Johansson 60th (9th for def, ESPP), Antti Tuimisoto 35th (23rd ESPP which is the only pick of the bunch that is slightly off). 

Ryan Johnson who'm the Sabres selected, 17th in ESPP and selected at 31. So do I want the 13th best forward at ESPP at 66th or the 17th best defender at 31? If I pick that defender, how do I justify it because we aren't getting enough value. Or... I could have had the 7th best forward or the 17th best defender. Now again this is your starting point not the ending point and clearly we see Detroit has more than just numbers at work here but they take the numbers seriously and so should we. Then you can find the Grewe's and the Robertson's (55th ESPP) guys and dig deeper into how they were used, how old they are, how do they play, etc... to build a player profile and understand the value of picking that player at that spot. The sabres last year should have taken Kaliyev or Mastrimone or several other players before they landed on Johnson but when you don't start with the numbers and when you prioritize non CHL leagues because you have some dumb development time contract fetish, you screw up and you screw up a lot. We need to be more Yzerman and less Botterill when it comes to how we draft. 

Kaliyev btw is 3rd this past season in ESPP behind Connor McMichael and... Nick Robertson. Cozens is a close 5th. If you include everyone in this years list Cozens is the first WHL guy with Seth Jarvis slightly behind in PPP but Jarvis ahead in ESPP. Just some food for thought as we could then start comparing production to leagues and older and younger players, but I think this is enough for now. We could get into ESPP/60 too which is useful because some players get a lot less ice time than others (it is how you find a Theodor Niederbach) but that's another conversation, it just all feeds into the profile you develop and think about when ranking a player.

Edited August 13, 2020 by LGR4GM

[Gabrielor]

I too loathed the Johnson pick. Kaliyev, Hoglander, so many better options there...

However, I'll obviously root for the guy to do well, and do think he get's oversold on prospect rankings because of his skillset (stick-use -focused defensive dman) and his ties to an all-decade bad trade.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Gabrielor

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, Gabrielor said:

I too loathed the Johnson pick. Kaliyev, Hoglander, so many better options there...

However, I'll obviously root for the guy to do well, and do think he get's oversold on prospect rankings because of his skillset (stick-use -focused defensive dman) and his ties to an all-decade bad trade.

I have no animosity towards Johnson and want to see him succeed. He has a good skillset to be a 3/4 defender and run your second pp if he can get there. 

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I have written these in chunks because I think it is easier for ppl. I just want to finish by saying that I have emphasized production but that isn't the end all or be all. It gives you a starting place to analyze players and start asking more question. It helps build a player profile. 

Rumor is Detoit (Yzerman) wants Cole Perfetti. It has been clear for years that Tampa under Yzerman was using production analytics to target players. Perfetti is ranked 4th in this draft class for ESPP and PPP (Powerplay Primary Points) and look who is rumored to want him at 4th overall. Cole is ranked 4th through 9th with an average of 7th. 

Last year the Red Wings took guys like Mastrimone 54th (19th ESPP), Grewe 66th (13th ESPP), Albert Johansson 60th (9th for def, ESPP), Antti Tuimisoto 35th (23rd ESPP which is the only pick of the bunch that is slightly off). 

Ryan Johnson who'm the Sabres selected, 17th in ESPP and selected at 31. So do I want the 13th best forward at ESPP at 66th or the 17th best defender at 31? If I pick that defender, how do I justify it because we aren't getting enough value. Or... I could have had the 7th best forward or the 17th best defender. Now again this is your starting point not the ending point and clearly we see Detroit has more than just numbers at work here but they take the numbers seriously and so should we. Then you can find the Grewe's and the Robertson's (55th ESPP) guys and dig deeper into how they were used, how old they are, how do they play, etc... to build a player profile and understand the value of picking that player at that spot. The sabres last year should have taken Kaliyev or Mastrimone or several other players before they landed on Johnson but when you don't start with the numbers and when you prioritize non CHL leagues because you have some dumb development time contract fetish, you screw up and you screw up a lot. We need to be more Yzerman and less Botterill when it comes to how we draft. 

Kaliyev btw is 3rd this past season in ESPP behind Connor McMichael and... Nick Robertson. Cozens is a close 5th. If you include everyone in this years list Cozens is the first WHL guy with Seth Jarvis slightly behind in PPP but Jarvis ahead in ESPP. Just some food for thought as we could then start comparing production to leagues and older and younger players, but I think this is enough for now. We could get into ESPP/60 too which is useful because some players get a lot less ice time than others (it is how you find a Theodor Niederbach) but that's another conversation, it just all feeds into the profile you develop and think about when ranking a player.

Cozens is first in WHL in ESPP or Jarvis? 

[LGR4GM]

16 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Cozens is first in WHL in ESPP or Jarvis? 

 

16 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Cozens is first in WHL in ESPP or Jarvis? 

Sorry. 

There's 2 things I'm looking at. The ESPP and what I labeled PPP. PPP is actually all primary points including the power play. 

Cozens is first in the WHL for PPP. He had the most primary points per game. I should probably call this TPP. (Total Prim Points)

Jarvis is first in even strength primary points or ESPP for the entire WHL. 

Hope that clarifies. 

[Thorner]

@LGR4GM completely, and thanks. I was reading PPP as primary powerplay points 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Thorny said:

@LGR4GM completely, and thanks. I was reading PPP as primary powerplay points 

Yea I'll say TPP from here out. 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Sorry. 

There's 2 things I'm looking at. The ESPP and what I labeled PPP. PPP is actually all primary points including the power play. 

Cozens is first in the WHL for PPP. He had the most primary points per game. I should probably call this TPP. (Total Prim Points)

Jarvis is first in even strength primary points or ESPP for the entire WHL. 

Hope that clarifies. 

Also judging by from the rest of your post, Jarvis must have been 4th overall in the CHL for ESPP, behind Kaliyev and the other two you mentioned, correct? 

What's Cozens TPP (first in the WHL you said) ranked CHL relative? 4th? 

Edited August 13, 2020 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

43 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Also judging by from the rest of your post, Jarvis must have been 4th overall in the CHL for ESPP, behind Kaliyev and the other two you mentioned, correct? 

What's Cozens TPP (first in the WHL you said) ranked CHL relative? 4th? 

Overall no, I was looking at D+1 players for that. If you do overall Cozens is ranked 10th in the CHL for TPP. 

Jarvis clocks in at 12th.

Jarvis is 5th overall if you just count his draft year. 

Jarvis is 1.2759 TPP

Rossi is 1.5714

Lafrienere is 1.6731

Byfield 1.5111

Perfetti 1.3934

...

Cozens is 1.3529

Robertson is 1.5870

[sabresparaavida]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Overall no, I was looking at D+1 players for that. If you do overall Cozens is ranked 10th in the CHL for TPP. 

Jarvis clocks in at 12th.

Jarvis is 5th overall if you just count his draft year. 

Jarvis is 1.2759 TPP

Rossi is 1.5714

Lafrienere is 1.6731

Byfield 1.5111

Perfetti 1.3934

...

Cozens is 1.3529

Robertson is 1.5870

So Cozens is not as good as he is being touted right now if you were to look at his numbers now. His numbers don't scream higher than around 8, if there was a similar draft last year.

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

So Cozens is not as good as he is being touted right now if you were to look at his numbers now. His numbers don't scream higher than around 8, if there was a similar draft last year.

Cozens plays a 200 foot game. Only half of that is reflected in measuring primary points. 

And he was 1st in the entire WHL for rate of primary points. Some of the others play in higher scoring leagues. It's certsibly nothing to sneeze at. 

Top 5 pick value, to me. 

[sabresparaavida]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Cozens plays a 200 foot game. Only half of that is reflected in measuring primary points. 

And he was 1st in the entire WHL for rate of primary points. Some of the others play in higher scoring leagues. It's certsibly nothing to sneeze at. 

Top 5 pick value, to me. 

I wasn't saying that Cozens was bad, I was just pointing to some of the limitations of that stat, players where it's different.

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

I wasn't saying that Cozens was bad, I was just pointing to some of the limitations of that stat, players where it's different.

But I didn't say you said he was bad. I was disagreeing with your take that he's not as good as he's being touted in light of looking at these numbers, and that he doesn't have a value above pick 8, the spot you just pegged in your post. 

Edited August 13, 2020 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

15 hours ago, sabresparaavida said:

So Cozens is not as good as he is being touted right now if you were to look at his numbers now. His numbers don't scream higher than around 8, if there was a similar draft last year.

 

15 hours ago, sabresparaavida said:

I wasn't saying that Cozens was bad, I was just pointing to some of the limitations of that stat, players where it's different.

You can't just rank by the raw total primary points a game, the WHL is a lower scoring league compared to ohl and q. Also a lot of guys in their D1 years go back to juniors to round out their games and I think Cozens did. 

If he was in this draft, he'd probably go around 4 or 5. He's got speed,  size, plays center so that all would factor. I don't like comparing like that though. This draft has about 3-4 really good players at the top, maybe 5. Cozens draft was similar although I think it was deeper with talent well into round 2. It's hard to determine who might go where. 

 

My real point in mentioning Cozens was to illustrate why Seth Jarvis being around 11th in composite rankings is off. Other than having a bad tournament last summer he's been really good. His second half this year he exploded and really came into his own. He's still my dark horse for 8 or as a surprise pick before that. 

 

[JohnC]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

You can't just rank by the raw total primary points a game, the WHL is a lower scoring league compared to ohl and q. Also a lot of guys in their D1 years go back to juniors to round out their games and I think Cozens did. 

If he was in this draft, he'd probably go around 4 or 5. He's got speed,  size, plays center so that all would factor. I don't like comparing like that though. This draft has about 3-4 really good players at the top, maybe 5. Cozens draft was similar although I think it was deeper with talent well into round 2. It's hard to determine who might go where. 

 

My real point in mentioning Cozens was to illustrate why Seth Jarvis being around 11th in composite rankings is off. Other than having a bad tournament last summer he's been really good. His second half this year he exploded and really came into his own. He's still my dark horse for 8 or as a surprise pick before that. 

 

How would you compare Cozens's style of play and talent level with Chicago's Jonathan Toews? Both have size and a driving type of game. I have said it before much to Thorny's chagrin but I do believe that Cozens had the maturity and physical makeup to play 2C in his rookie year. That doesn't mean that should do it on a full time basis but if done on a periodic basis I believe he wouldn't be overwhelmed. 

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, JohnC said:

How would you compare Cozens's style of play and talent level with Chicago's Jonathan Toews? Both have size and a driving type of game. I have said it before much to Thorny's chagrin but I do believe that Cozens had the maturity and physical makeup to play 2C in his rookie year. That doesn't mean that should do it on a full time basis but if done on a periodic basis I believe he wouldn't be overwhelmed. 

Couldn't honestly answer that. 

[LGR4GM]

Age matters. It is why when I hear someone ask why Dahlin isn't as good as Makar I shrug it off because they are still in the development phase and age matters. 

That brings me to Jack Finley. He's young, really young, clocking in with a September birthday he is one of the youngest in this draft. He is big at 6'5" and has some good qualities but looks really raw from the little I have watched. So what do you do with a guy like him? You see if he slides into the 4th and you draft him. His production is decent at 57 in 61 and you have to view him as a year younger than basically everyone else. This is the type of player you play blackjack with, you might lose but you have better odds than selecting someone else who is older, scored less, and is an even longer shot. Will he pan out? Idk maybe, but the point is the age adjusted scoring would tell us a lot about him. At the same age Rossi outscored him but not by a ton. Just something to consider as the later rounds of the draft come at you. Finley is young and large meaning like our young Tage he is probably on a development curve that isn't at the same point as his other draft eligible friends. Worth a shot. 

 

Edited August 17, 2020 by LGR4GM

[Curt]

^^^

39 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Jack Finley

Nice.  Finley is a guy that I came up with when I was making out a list of potential “power forward” type prospects that Buffalo could draft.  I think Buffalo could use a couple more big, physical forwards in their prospect pool.