2020 Draft Rankings Not Soon Enough...

[LGR4GM]

I have a name for pick 38. There is a chance this player slides to that spot but it would be lucky (I think he'll go in the 25-30 range) but I always like to have a couple guys for that possibility. 

Sam Colangelo, 6'2" USHL guy who some list as a center but some list as RW so. Anyways he is gritty and has good skill. I think he is a guy that has that middle six upside we need in the pipeline. There is some risk as he is clearly stronger than a lot of his peers currently but his skating checks out, he has good hustle and moves around. I think his shot needs work but he has some playmaking. A couple years in college will be perfect for him. 

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I have a name for pick 38. There is a chance this player slides to that spot but it would be lucky (I think he'll go in the 25-30 range) but I always like to have a couple guys for that possibility. 

Sam Colangelo, 6'2" USHL guy who some list as a center but some list as RW so. Anyways he is gritty and has good skill. I think he is a guy that has that middle six upside we need in the pipeline. There is some risk as he is clearly stronger than a lot of his peers currently but his skating checks out, he has good hustle and moves around. I think his shot needs work but he has some playmaking. A couple years in college will be perfect for him. 

Somebody pitched him earlier in the thread. Seemed like a good fit.

Another mock I read over the weekend had Pat Brisson’s kid falling to us in the 2nd, which would be outstanding.

Edited July 27, 2020 by dudacek

[Curt]

21 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I have a name for pick 38. There is a chance this player slides to that spot but it would be lucky (I think he'll go in the 25-30 range) but I always like to have a couple guys for that possibility. 

Sam Colangelo, 6'2" USHL guy who some list as a center but some list as RW so. Anyways he is gritty and has good skill. I think he is a guy that has that middle six upside we need in the pipeline. There is some risk as he is clearly stronger than a lot of his peers currently but his skating checks out, he has good hustle and moves around. I think his shot needs work but he has some playmaking. A couple years in college will be perfect for him. 

I like Colangelo and I’ve spoken about him in here as a good option for #38.

Another player that I really like at 38 is Marat Kushnutdinov.  He is an elite skating 2-way C from the Russian junior league, MHL. Great hands, good passer, good shot.  He can make plays with the puck at full speed.  He is tenacious in puck pursuit, creative and dangerous when it’s on his stick.  Only real weakness is his size, listed at 5’9” 165 some places, but 5’11” 175 others, so I think he has grown.  Despite this, he does not avoid physical contact, isn’t particularly weak and his puck possession is pretty good.  Also has strong leadership skills, serving as captain at multiple junior levels.

Overall, a smallish, 2-way, intense, creative, dynamic, east-west center.  He is projected everywhere from the late 1st to late 2nd.  For me, he should be a top-20 guy.  I hope he is there at 38.  See link to YouTube highlights below.

https://youtu.be/Aq5NeoeQK9U

Edited July 28, 2020 by Curt

[LGR4GM]

Here's a name no one has mentioned and we should... 

Tyler Tullio. He is either 5'9, 5'10 or 5'11 depending on where you go... so that's fun. Let's go with 5'10" and 165lbs. 

This kid skates great and does some nifty things with the puck. He is a little undersized in terms of weight and that has me excited because strength is the easiest thing for a prospect to add. The reports say this kid is a battler too, he never stops moving his feet and he constantly is annoying his opponents. 

Now some of you are probably thinking, so what? There are lots of draft players we could write that about. 

Jack Quinn even strength primary points per game: 0.710

Tyler Tullio even strength primary points per game: 0.694

Quinn, es primary goals v assists: 34g, 10a

Tullio, es primary goals v assists: 19g, 24a

Basically I can get a player in round 2 that is comparable to Quinn, while being 7 months younger, about the same size, playing on a worse team with a worse pp yet putting up similar even strength primary numbers who by all accounts skates great and has a great attitude. These are the guys that turn into the Cirelli's of the world. At #38, I am taking Tullio. 

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 Tullio plays with creativity and confidence, utilizing everything from the boards to the back of the net to send bank-passes around the ice. He makes passes that some players wouldn’t think of. He spots teammates on the backdoor and in the slot with regularity and attacks the net to draw defenders in and open up passing lanes. He is one of the most aggressive forecheckers in the OHL and he has a good two-way game, often aiding defenders down low and being the first forward back on defensive transitions. 

Tullio outworks every other player on the ice and he has the skill and offensive instincts to capitalize on the chances that he generates. He has a good shot that plays up because of his lightning-quick release. Tullio also possesses a bomb of a one-timer from the faceoff circle on the powerplay. He battles in the dirty areas, using his agility and good stick work to come out of scrums with the puck.

https://dobberprospects.com/player/tyler-tullio/

 

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BY MARK SCHEIG JUNE 20TH, 2020

Tyler Tullio

2019-20 Team: Oshawa Generals (#71)
Date of Birth: April 5th, 2002
Place of Birth: Lakeshore, Ontario, Canada
Ht: 5-foot-11 Wt: 166 pounds
Shoots: Right
Position: Center/Winger
NHL Draft Eligibility: 2020 first-year eligible

Rankings

NHL Central Scouting: 52nd (Final Rankings, NA Skaters)

Future Considerations: 54th

McKeen’s Hockey: 74th

Josh Bell’s Final Top-155: 74th

In my viewings of Tullio, he has a lot of both Brad Marchand and Anthony Cirelli in him. Although he’s not the biggest player, Tullio will get under your skin. He showed a willingness to hit and be physical when necessary at different points. He also has the knack of going to the right place to make something happen. His intelligence and willingness to embrace different roles stand out to me. The term ultimate team player is a bit of a cliche. But in Tullio’s case, it’s true. He’s someone you want on your team. https://thehockeywriters.com/tyler-tullio-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

I read something in one of the reports that his skating wasn't good just average. I fully disagree, I think his top end speed is probably just above average but his quickness and agility is very good and I think his speed may improve with increased strength which if he is actually 165 and 5'11" he can add about 25-30lbs of muscle. 

[LGR4GM]

But wait there's more. 

Tristen Robins. 5'10" c/rw from the WHL. Was 3rd in ppg for CHL draft eligible players. Currently projected to go anywhere from the late 2nd (questionable) to the late 5th round. I would love him in the 3rd round but let's hope he slides to the 4th. 

He had 23 es goals and clocks in at a 0.661 es primary ppg (ESPppg). His ESP actually puts him above Conor Zary who is often talked about as a first round pick. Zary clocks in at a 0.632 ESP.  Tyson Foerster, a player talked about in round 2 a lot also compares. If we look at just PrPPG (primary points per game) Foerster clocks 1.016 to Robins 0.919 PrPPG. All these things are something to consider when evaluating the later round guys. Especially for forwards, if they aren't producing in juniors, they aren't magically going to in the NHL. You need to find guys that maybe are on weak teams with soft pp to pad stats but are still scoring at even strength with some of the higher ranked guys. 

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he had 54 points in the last 33 games playing against top lines. https://thehockeywriters.com/tristen-robins-2020-draft-prospect-profile/

 

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Robins also has excellent agility and edgework. His ability to make quick cuts and turns can also beat defenders. He is tough to handle in one-on-one situations. Robins can get stronger to improve his balance and ability to win battles in the corners. That said, he is fearless, and a low centre of gravity is an asset when he battles with defenders. https://lastwordonhockey.com/2020/06/01/tristen-robins-scouting-report/

Also, this video shows why I think Seth Jarvis should be ranked far higher. The WHL is a better defensive league than the OHL is at this point so scoring there comes at a premium. Also Seth Jarvis as an ES goals for% of 73.45 which is awesome. 

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

If I had a draft of...

#8: Seth Jarvis

#38: Ty Tullio

#101(?): Tristen Robins

... well that would be an amazing draft of potential talent and that is what we are going for here. 

[Curt]

30 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Tristen Robins. 5'10" c/rw from the WHL. Was 3rd in ppg for CHL draft eligible players. Currently projected to go anywhere from the late 2nd (questionable) to the late 5th round. I would love him in the 3rd round but let's hope he slides to the 4th. 

I like Robins too.  Would be a good pick anytime after the 2nd.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, Curt said:

I like Robins too.  Would be a good pick anytime after the 2nd.

Trading 3rd round picks for rental depth players on non cup contending teams is bad and this is one of the reasons why. It is also why I like trading for late 2nds or early 3rd round picks. Guys like this slide and you can snipe them. 

Edited July 28, 2020 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

Watching Robins... this kid should easily be a 2nd round pick. He does basically everything I want a player to do. He is an offensive creator, he creates chaos in the offensive zone and that leads to goals. This kid is like a discount Marco Rossi. 

Edited July 28, 2020 by LGR4GM

[Thorner]

On 7/27/2020 at 1:01 AM, dudacek said:

Finally, there are two players I think are highly unlikely to be Sabres at 8, but I would be extremely happy to welcome to the organization.

Jamie Drysdale is ranked 4th by McKenzie”s poll and is the consensus best defenceman. But there are scouts who prefer Sanderson. So there is a reasonable scenario where Sanderson is the first defenceman taken and the three others teams between 4-7 go for offence with Perfetti, Rossi and Raymond. Which would mean Drysdale would be there for Buffalo. I know there are some who say “best forward available.” They’d be nuts if this happened. Drysdale has silky smooth hands and feet and the IQ of a point guard. He belongs to the Hughes/ Makar family of offensive defenceman. I’d take a 60-point, positionally savvy defenceman over a 60 point forward every time.

Jack Quinn is my dark horse, a player I would happily jump ahead of the consensus to grab. And to be honest, I don’t know why he isn’t getting more top 10 buzz. He is crafty, works hard, plays with pace, is good in traffic, hounds the puck, handles it with authority, kills penalties and scores goals as good as anyone in this draft. He’s a late bloomer and has some filling out to do, but the kid wants it, and he can play. Right wing Is our weakest position and he is the best right wing in the draft. 

It’s probably a toss-up bodies wise between centre and right wing,  but with C being a much more important position and the ability of some of Botterill’s Left Shot Wing Abundance Emporium to play the right side, I’d say we are still weakest at C. 

We sure do have a lot of left wings and RHD, though. 

NHL players under contract (or RFA) #’s, by position:

Centres - 2 (Eichel, Lazar)

LW - 4 (Skinner, Johansson, Olofsson, Kahun)

RW - 2 (Reinhart, Okposo)

LHD - 2 (McCabe, Dahlin)

RHD - 4 (Miller, Ristolainen, Montour, Jokiharju)

- - -

F prospects most likely to make jump this season - Cozens (C), Thompson (RW), Mittelstadt (LW)

D prospects most likely to make jump - Borgen (RHD)

I’d be working hard on a current player swap to rectify the LHD/RHD imbalance for the coming NHL roster - but organizationally we do have some LHD in the pipeline (Samuelsson, Bryson) so it wouldn’t be a draft focus for me. 

If we are factoring in need I’d lean C but a RW would be fine if it’s the BPA. I’d be pretty disappointed to select a D man. 

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

Oddly and completely by accident, the 3 players I have talked about (Jarvis, Tullio, Robins) are all listed as C/RW's so that should help haha. 

[Thorner]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Oddly and completely by accident, the 3 players I have talked about (Jarvis, Tullio, Robins) are all listed as C/RW's so that should help haha. 

I like looking at Cozens this way. If he doesn’t fill a long term C role I’d be shocked if he doesn’t fill one at Top 6 RW.

We are either set at top 6 RW with Reinhart or Cozens, or if Cozens proves himself a capable 2C down the line, the RW spot beside him is a lot easier to fill. 

Edited July 28, 2020 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

It would surprise me if Cozens ended up on the wing. He has everything you want in a center from his shot to this skating to his size. 

[Crusader1969]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

It would surprise me if Cozens ended up on the wing. He has everything you want in a center from his shot to this skating to his size. 

please, dear god this has to happen...

[Curt]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Trading 3rd round picks for rental depth players on non cup contending teams is bad and this is one of the reasons why. It is also why I like trading for late 2nds or early 3rd round picks. Guys like this slide and you can snipe them. 

Agreed.  I think you are doing a good job of highlighting some guys like that.  Especially the CHL guys where the stats are relatively easy to pick apart.

[Thorner]

26 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

It would surprise me if Cozens ended up on the wing. He has everything you want in a center from his shot to this skating to his size. 

Well, and playmaking ability. But he seems to have that too. 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Agreed.  I think you are doing a good job of highlighting some guys like that.  Especially the CHL guys where the stats are relatively easy to pick apart.

Yea chl stats are not only easy to pick apart but they have lots of comparables over time. Some of the euro guys also split time btw their u20 and pro team so that interferes too. The ushl you can pick apart somewhat too. It's just really nice looking at ESP and finding guys that might get overlooked. 

[LGR4GM]

Now all I need is site that has SEAL adjusted scoring and stats. 

I just hope the Sabres do this because traditional scouting isn't working. 

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Yea chl stats are not only easy to pick apart but they have lots of comparables over time. Some of the euro guys also split time btw their u20 and pro team so that interferes too. The ushl you can pick apart somewhat too. It's just really nice looking at ESP and finding guys that would have been overlooked due to the league they play in and knowing we don't have to actively rule them out pre-draft. 

FTFY

Edited July 28, 2020 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

FTFY

Haha... yea Botts chl bias was atrocious. 

[LGR4GM]

If you can't tell if your prospect is even worth an AHL slot after 2 years... well maybe you need a new profession. 

[dudacek]

What stat based equivalencies tend to transfer best?

Meaning which are the likeliest signs of NHL success and why?

[LGR4GM]

53 minutes ago, dudacek said:

What stat based equivalencies tend to transfer best?

Meaning which are the likeliest signs of NHL success and why?

Goals and production in general. I like primary points personally but production can be broken into percentile and then you can see what percentile that player falls in after you adjust for things like age. So for example Eichel was in like the 99th percentile for his age and scoring in the ncaa. 

[dudacek]

27 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Goals and production in general. I like primary points personally but production can be broken into percentile and then you can see what percentile that player falls in after you adjust for things like age. So for example Eichel was in like the 99th percentile for his age and scoring in the ncaa. 

Is it generally only a good guide for scoring forwards? I’m thinking the Tom Wilsons and Erik Cernaks of the world might fall through the cracks.

Also, I get how you can look at Brayden Point”s production and say he should have been drafted higher, but how do you account for Sam Bennett producing very similar numbers to Point but not carrying it over, or Michael Dal Colle and Mikhail Grigorenko scoring in the same range and busting?  Guys like Chris Tierney with dog——  numbers in their draft year?

How much weight to give the numbers?

Edited July 28, 2020 by dudacek