2020 Draft Rankings Not Soon Enough...

[LGR4GM]

Rakish would be the person to ask about later round guys. His modeling helps to sift through some of the noise when it comes to forwards. 

[Thorner]

33 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

And? We need both. 

I know, I was just pointing it out because it was stated a couple posts ago he was a C like Newhook and it went unclarified.

[Curt]

24 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I know, I was just pointing it out because it was stated a couple posts ago he was a C like Newhook and it went unclarified.

Jarvis played mostly RW, but I think has played a little C.  He may be listed as a C some places, but is most likely a W going forward.

[Weave]

7 hours ago, Curt said:

Jarvis played mostly RW, but I think has played a little C.  He may be listed as a C some places, but is most likely a W going forward.

He's no Gerbe, for sure.

[LGR4GM]

This is why Botterill had to be fired and why Ryan Johnson was and will forever be one of the dumbest draft picks in Sabres history. Epic fail. This is why you need analytics and better scouting because this team will go NOWHERE until they fix their drafting. There is no light at the end of the tunnel unless this gets rectified. Stupid, stupid pick and I will maintain that until Ryan Johnson does something to prove me wrong. What a ***** waste.  

 

Edited July 18, 2020 by LGR4GM

[Eleven]

51 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This is why Botterill had to be fired and why Ryan Johnson was and will forever be one of the dumbest draft picks in Sabres history. Epic fail. This is why you need analytics and better scouting because this team will go NOWHERE until they fix their drafting. There is no light at the end of the tunnel unless this gets rectified. Stupid, stupid pick and I will maintain that until Ryan Johnson does something to prove me wrong. What a ***** waste.  

 

 

Not sure how the tweet relates to the Johnson pick.  Is it because Robertson is subbing in for an unavailable player?

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

This is why Botterill had to be fired and why Ryan Johnson was and will forever be one of the dumbest draft picks in Sabres history. Epic fail. This is why you need analytics and better scouting because this team will go NOWHERE until they fix their drafting. There is no light at the end of the tunnel unless this gets rectified. Stupid, stupid pick and I will maintain that until Ryan Johnson does something to prove me wrong. What a ***** waste.  

 

We agree however, that so far Robin Lehner has had a much more impressive NHL career than Colin White?

29 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Not sure how the tweet relates to the Johnson pick.  Is it because Robertson is subbing in for an unavailable player?

Robertson (Or Kaliyev) is who LGR would have picked. It really has nothing to do with Johnson, it’s about the Sabres inability to recognize there were better players available. It’s Brock Boeser 2.0

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

We agree however, that so far Robin Lehner has had a much more impressive NHL career than Colin White?

Robertson (Or Kaliyev) is who LGR would have picked. It really has nothing to do with Johnson, it’s about the Sabres inability to recognize there were better players available. It’s Brock Boeser 2.0

Bingo. 

[Brawndo]

Add that to the fact Toronto will be able to trade Kapanen or Johansson for Cap Space and probably improve their lineup with a player on His ELC

[dudacek]

So why aren’t people talking more about Jack Quinn?

I get that he wasn’t on people’s radar so much a year ago, and that he’s on a great team, but damn his tape looks good.

Leading ES goal scorer in all the CHL and those are his goals not tap-ins: driving, lurking, setting up defenders and picking corners, twisting goalies into the ice. His passing and focus look good, his skating seems fine, he gets in the dirty areas and he protects the puck well.

What are the compelling reasons to put him behind Raymond or Lundell or Holtz? Just quality of competition?

Edited July 19, 2020 by dudacek

[rakish]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

So why aren’t people talking more about Jack Quinn?

There are people on hfb that watch the 67s that prefer Quinn to Rossi. For me, my model deducts points if a teammate scores more points than you, which harms Quinn unnecessarily as I'm told Quinn and Rossi didn't play together. If I valuated using goals instead of points, I would certainly like Quinn more. I would reconsider his ranking except he didn't score many points as a 16 year old either.

Hockeyprospects.com has him 6th, they did very well in the 2018 version of my draft contest.

[LGR4GM]

11 hours ago, dudacek said:

So why aren’t people talking more about Jack Quinn?

I get that he wasn’t on people’s radar so much a year ago, and that he’s on a great team, but damn his tape looks good.

Leading ES goal scorer in all the CHL and those are his goals not tap-ins: driving, lurking, setting up defenders and picking corners, twisting goalies into the ice. His passing and focus look good, his skating seems fine, he gets in the dirty areas and he protects the puck well.

What are the compelling reasons to put him behind Raymond or Lundell or Holtz? Just quality of competition?

Honestly just haven't gotten around to him much. His points last year bother me as he was 17 and barely did much. Other than that I think he's got a shot of being drafted ahead of Holtz or Lundell as there's been a lot of chatter last month about him. He's in that top 10 bubble. Personally, I like Rossi more but Quinn is interesting. 

[French Collection]

11 hours ago, dudacek said:

So why aren’t people talking more about Jack Quinn?

I get that he wasn’t on people’s radar so much a year ago, and that he’s on a great team, but damn his tape looks good.

Leading ES goal scorer in all the CHL and those are his goals not tap-ins: driving, lurking, setting up defenders and picking corners, twisting goalies into the ice. His passing and focus look good, his skating seems fine, he gets in the dirty areas and he protects the puck well.

What are the compelling reasons to put him behind Raymond or Lundell or Holtz? Just quality of competition?

I watched him live this year and I was impressed. He scored a lot of goals but he is not a one dimensional sniper, like Caufield.

Quinn kills penalties and is effective at it, going out on the first unit. He showed some decent speed by slipping through defenders and getting a breakaway. He scored on a deke instead of going for the wrister, which is hard and accurate. He probably could have scored more paired with Rossi but the coach wanted a balanced offense.

He is comparable to Owen Tippett from a few years ago but I like Quinn more.

[LGR4GM]

Quinn

 

 

[Crusader1969]

Goal Perfetti breakdown

https://dobberprospects.com/draft-class-deep-dive-cole-perfetti/

[Thorner]

https://lastwordonhockey.com/2020/07/26/going-through-buffalo-sabres-draft-options/

Decent draft article re: Sabres 

[dudacek]

I don’t invest the type of time @lgr4gm and @rakish do in looking at prospects. I read enough to be familiar with the players ranked in the first round or two and gather as much information (words and video) as I can about players that might be under consideration by the Sabres.

It makes me eminently unqualified to rank who is better than who, but it does give me a feel for whether these kids are “my type of player” and how well they fit in with our needs.

With that in mind, I would be ecstatic if one of these players slip to us:

Cole Perfetti: I think some people are sleeping on this kid’s skill, kinda like they were sleeping on Elias Petterson a few years back, and for the same reasons: he doesn’t have great size or pace, and that creates skepticism. The thing is, when those two qualities are good enough - and with Perfetti they are - and the hockey sense and skill levels are elite, those latter traits carry the water. Perfetti is a fox out there, or a snake, toying with the competition, creating and leveraging space and pouncing with deadly efficiency. His NHLe is notably better than Reinhart’s in his draft year and Cozens in his D1 year. I think he has Petterson upside. He will be a 1st line NHLer at wing or centre, and is an offensive force, pure and simple who processes the game with an arrogant intelligence and has the hands to warrant the hubris. He can be an elite-level sidekick to an Eichel, or drive his own line.

Marco Rossi: Buffalo fans want players who care as much as they do and Rossi bleeds for his team, he is a relentless terrier out there, flushing out the puck and refusing to surrender it as he accelerates and cuts his way past and through opponents, He’s not big, but he is solid and strong on his skates and will use his quick processing skills and low centre of gravity to thrive against men in the NHL. I don’t see his pace-based game being dominant enough to make him an elite NHL scorer, but he has very good skill, and 60 points with two-way excellence is a standard that should be regularly met over a long career. Beyond the skating and the pace, I think Buffalo fans will see elements of Chris Drury in his competitiveness and versatility, but the guy who Rossi reminds me of most in stature and style is Saku Koivu. Just a Swiss Army knife of a player, and a gamer, through and through.

Edited July 27, 2020 by dudacek

[Thorner]

I like those guys but I also really like Lundell. The pick's value is looking very solid. We need to see that reflected, one way or another. I hope they don't go off board if they make the pick. Or take a D-man.

[dudacek]

There are two players who are very likely on the Sabres’ radar that I kinda hope won’t get their name called when #8 rolls around. It’s not that I know enough to dismiss their pedigree, it’s just that what I know scares me.

Jake Sanderson is the son of the former Sabre and is apparently rocketing up the draft boards, even getting top 3 consideration from a few of the scouts polled by Bob McKenzie. He’s got a textbook frame, poise and is a beautiful skater and will probably make some team real happy if they pick him in the early teens. I’m not excited about him for two reasons. The first is kinda obvious: he’s a puck moving defenceman on a team that already has a lot of them. I buy the argument that there will be players just as good available at positions of greater need. The second reason is a little deeper: I will take a defencemen if he’s worthy of the pick, but I don’t think Sanderson has got the upside to his game that others are projecting for him; he’s a case of a defenceman ticking a lot of boxes at a posItion in a year where not many of his peers can say the same. I think he will develop into a reliable 2/3 who might hit 40 points in the right situation, but he’s more Ryan Murray than Quinn Hughes. You don’t need to invest a #8 to get that guy.

Lucas Raymond: When Jason Botterill was running this team I thought Raymond to the Sabres was going to be automatic. With Adams in charge, and given how this draft is stacking up, It’s still pretty likely. Raymond has an absolutely sky-high level of skill, a similar level to Perfetti, who I love, and he’s a better skater, and probably more responsible defensively. It’s just that I can’t get over how little ice time he got and how his production this year translated to 14 points under NHLe and I struggle to buy the party line that his coach was being obstinate about making a kid earn his place on a men’s team. I think he is being rated as a potential top 5 pick because of what he did prior to this year, not how he’s trended since. There is so much there - celebrated skilled Swedish winger with possible engagement and entitlement issues at pick #8 - that echoes Alex Nylander that I can’t help but be scared. To be fair, the “issues” are fully me reading into his lack of ice time, and he will likely be the most skilled player available when our turn comes up. If we take him, I just have to hope our scouts have done their homework and are comfortable saying he’s more Willie than Alex.

Edited July 27, 2020 by dudacek

[dudacek]

Aside from Raymond, there are two other players who I think are most likely to be be told over Zoom that blue and gold is in their future. Assuming my favourites are already off the board, neither of them scare or excite me much. Both make sense as safe and sensible selections who will increase our talent pool.

Alexander Holtz: with goal scorers, there comes a certain amount of willingness to ignore other parts of the game, like courage, defence, skating and passing. One thing I like about Holtz is that he’s not particularly deficient in any of those areas. They won’t punch his NHL ticket, but they shouldn’t prevent him from being a top 10 selection either. The core of his game, however is getting open and burying the puck, and he does both of those things very well. He”s not as much of a load as Timo Meier, and he doesn’t have the slick stick skills of a Thomas Vanek, but he projects as a similar first line 30-goal right winger who could feast off Eichel for.a decade.

Anton Lundell: A lot of people are saying Lundell is a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect. Which makes sense if you are talking in terms of being an NHL player, because I”d be shocked if he isn’t. But in terms of pick 8, there is a certain amount of risk, in that he could top out as 35-point Johan Larsson. His intelligence, strength, tenacity and discipline will allow him to shine in your bottom six, the question is whether he has the skill to be be a legitimate 2C at the NHL level. I’m a believer. His skill level isn’t flashy, but it’s there and his IQ sees him consistently moving himself and the puck into the right places. He’s consistently played above his age level and consistently shown he belongs. He’s a winner and the type of player a coach leans on. o’Reilly would be his ceiling.

Edited July 27, 2020 by dudacek

[Thorner]

^ I haven't heard of Lundell's floor being that low, ie that of a Larsson level talent. But admittedly haven't read a ton of draft stuff. 

[dudacek]

 

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

^ I haven't heard of Lundell's floor being that low, ie that of a Larsson level talent. But admittedly haven't read a ton of draft stuff. 

I don’t think anyone sees him as a Larsson level talent. What I was getting at was a floor of Larsson defensively, but with twice as much offence. In other words, a good 3C. I think Larsson boosters (and I’m one) tend to forget how bad he is at putting up points.

Edited July 27, 2020 by dudacek

[dudacek]

Finally, there are two players I think are highly unlikely to be Sabres at 8, but I would be extremely happy to welcome to the organization.

Jamie Drysdale is ranked 4th by McKenzie”s poll and is the consensus best defenceman. But there are scouts who prefer Sanderson. So there is a reasonable scenario where Sanderson is the first defenceman taken and the three others teams between 4-7 go for offence with Perfetti, Rossi and Raymond. Which would mean Drysdale would be there for Buffalo. I know there are some who say “best forward available.” They’d be nuts if this happened. Drysdale has silky smooth hands and feet and the IQ of a point guard. He belongs to the Hughes/ Makar family of offensive defenceman. I’d take a 60-point, positionally savvy defenceman over a 60 point forward every time.

Jack Quinn is my dark horse, a player I would happily jump ahead of the consensus to grab. And to be honest, I don’t know why he isn’t getting more top 10 buzz. He is crafty, works hard, plays with pace, is good in traffic, hounds the puck, handles it with authority, kills penalties and scores goals as good as anyone in this draft. He’s a late bloomer and has some filling out to do, but the kid wants it, and he can play. Right wing Is our weakest position and he is the best right wing in the draft. 

[5th line wingnutt]

Draft simulator.

https://nhlentrydraft.com/mock-draft/

This is fun.  I got Marco Rossi on my first try.

Edited July 27, 2020 by 5th line wingnutt

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

Finally, there are two players I think are highly unlikely to be Sabres at 8, but I would be extremely happy to welcome to the organization.

Jamie Drysdale is ranked 4th by McKenzie”s poll and is the consensus best defenceman. But there are scouts who prefer Sanderson. So there is a reasonable scenario where Sanderson is the first defenceman taken and the three others teams between 4-7 go for offence with Perfetti, Rossi and Raymond. Which would mean Drysdale would be there for Buffalo. I know there are some who say “best forward available.” They’d be nuts if this happened. Drysdale has silky smooth hands and feet and the IQ of a point guard. He belongs to the Hughes/ Makar family of offensive defenceman. I’d take a 60-point, positionally savvy defenceman over a 60 point forward every time.

Jack Quinn is my dark horse, a player I would happily jump ahead of the consensus to grab. And to be honest, I don’t know why he isn’t getting more top 10 buzz. He is crafty, works hard, plays with pace, is good in traffic, hounds the puck, handles it with authority, kills penalties and scores goals as good as anyone in this draft. He’s a late bloomer and has some filling out to do, but the kid wants it, and he can play. Right wing Is our weakest position and he is the best right wing in the draft. 

IMO, best RW in the draft is either Holtz or Jarvis depending on your preference. Quinn should be discussed more in the top 10 though. 

Really quickly the reason I rank Jarvis over Quinn is partially based on the numbers. Jarvis' primary points at even strength (goals and primary assists) are at 0.948. Quinn's are at 0.710

Add to that their even strength goals specifically. Quinn 34, Jarvis 32. 

Edited July 27, 2020 by LGR4GM