2020 Draft Rankings Not Soon Enough...

[Brawndo]

Should we start the 2021 NHL Draft Thread cause Botterill? 

[Drag0nDan]

18 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Should we start the 2021 NHL Draft Thread cause Botterill? 

I mean... we're fans.  We may as well right?

[Marvin]

3 hours ago, SwampD said:

You’re talking about the playoffs, right?

Nope.  Before The Great Lockout, regular season hockey was buried in hook-and-hold.  It was just that much worse in the playoffs.

For years, one of the selling points on semi-skilled palookas over smaller skilled players was that he was a "big, physical kid."  It had been so bad for so long that long-time people on places like hfboards think that big, immobile players have the "right" to just grab players who are faster than they are.  Posters on Spector's Hockey called the 2005-6 Sabres "pond-hockey pansies" and couldn't believe Lindy Ruff could coach such a team.

[rakish]

As most of you know, I value hockey prospects using an analytical approach. One advantage of this, is that I think I have a good grasp of how this draft compares to other drafts, and where I'm going here, is to say, don't trade the 7th (or so) pick. Trade Mittelstadt?, sure, Cozens? If you gotta, but the contour of this draft is such that trading 7(or so) should be out of the question.

Lets look of my rankings over the past decade for first year eligible prospects.

2015 was a very good draft, if you were in the top 3, you have, among forwards McDavid(1), Eichel (3), and Marner (16), but that was all the high end prospects, Arizona took Strome (30), Barzel should have gone next (57),  Jansen Harkins (80) (Yeah, you talk to my model about this one). My point here, is that other than McDavid and Eichel, it's a pretty standard spread, about 1 player for every 10 picks, according to my model.

Let's look at last year: Hughes (10 or 71 depending on whether you use his usdp (good) or ushl (not so good) stats),  Kakko (12),  Newhook(34), Turcotte(35),  Dorofayev (74 ok my MHL number is a bit high), Cozens (76 for the decade, so a pretty normal number 8 pick).

Lets compare these 2 years to 2020. Rossi (6, if you don't believe my model, look at his scoring, he comes up with the same valuation at 17 as Patrick Kane (who is outside of the decade)), next you got Byfield at 8, Jarvis at 13 (look at his scoring vs the rest of his team, and the team being very good). Lafreniere at 18, Stutzle at 19 (hey, it's Germany, how the *** do I know? but he looks fine on video) Perfetti's 23, Holtz is 32. That's not even counting Raymond (It's hard to value 17 year olds playing against adults). As  you can see, the top 8 or so players are really good, so this pick doesn't have anything to do with what the 8th overall normally looks like, it's a really good year to pick 7th. There's also a goaltender and a defenseman expected to be drafted before 7.

So my argument is that Rossi could be there at 7, Jarvis will likely be there at 7. You can't trade this pick.

This is my top 29 17 year olds for the decade, I went as far as Reinhart. All of the players in a men's league you may feel free to take with grain of salt.

1CONNOR MCDAVID OHL  3669
2ALEKSANDER BARKOV  Liiga 3317
3JACK EICHEL  NCAA  3107
4RYAN STROME  OHL 2736
5AUSTON MATTHEWS  NLA 2650
6Marco Rossi  *** OHL 2565
7JONATHAN DROUIN  QMJH  2544
8Quinton Byfield  *** OHL 2464
9WILLIAM NYLANDER Allsvens  2417
10Jack Hughes (F)USDP 2413
11KEVIN FIALA SHL 2405
12Kaapo Kakko (F) Liiga 2400
13Seth Jarvis *** WHL 2399
14RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS WHL 2395
15PATRIK LAINE  Liiga 2355
16MITCHELL MARNER OHL 2162
17SAM BENNETT OHL 2129
18Alexis Lafrenière *** QMJHL 2050
19Tim Stützle *** DEL 2023
20TOMAS HERTL Czech 2013
21ARTTURI LEHKONEN  Liiga 2000
22ELIAS LINDHOLM  SHL 1969
23Cole Perfetti *** OHL 1888
24JESSE PULJUJÄRVI  Liiga 1871
25JONATHAN HUBERDEAU  QMJHL 1867
26JOEL ARMIA  Liiga 1850
27ELIAS PETTERSSON  Allsvens  1811
28VALERI NICHUSHKIN KHL 1807
29SAM REINHART  WHL 1788

[Marvin]

IMHO, if the Sabres 1st round pick is low enough, JBottom will need to have three tiers of players for the following decisions:

1. "These guys are available at my pick.  I have to take one of them unless someone decides to give me a present."

2. "I think these guys can help now even if I don't push, but if I get a fair offer for immediate help, I will use the pick."

3. "Oh, $#!+, everyone I really wanted a crack at is gone.  I hope the trade I want is there for the pick."

That means 2 tiers of players for the first round.  For those who are better at this than I am (probably everyone), whom do you have in these tiers.

Aside: I can't believe how many amateur draft-nicks pencilled in Reinhart and/or Cozens as #2C.  The logic is that, "because the Sabres don't need to draft a C, they should draft..."  If any of them got that indirectly from JNot, I am going to fricking scream.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

@rakish, I don't fully understand your model and all that jazz, but there appears to be some flaw in your top 29 list ... how can it include Joel Freakin' Armia, but not MacKinnon?

I'll shut up and listen now.

[rakish]

21 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

@rakish, I don't fully understand your model and all that jazz, but there appears to be some flaw in your top 29 list ... how can it include Joel Freakin' Armia, but not MacKinnon?

I'll shut up and listen now.

Joel Freakin Armia was really good before the head injuries, that's my story. In reality, Liiga is set a bit high, as there are a couple too many Liiga players on this list.

MacKinnon was outscored by Drouin at age 17, which does terrible things to my model. 

What the model is doing is trying to contextualize scoring. Players score more when playing with other great players, older players score more than  younger players. I try to distill how that context should be allocated, then apply it to the next bunch of players.

[LGR4GM]

 

On 6/6/2020 at 9:42 PM, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

IMHO, if the Sabres 1st round pick is low enough, JBottom will need to have three tiers of players for the following decisions:

1. "These guys are available at my pick.  I have to take one of them unless someone decides to give me a present."

2. "I think these guys can help now even if I don't push, but if I get a fair offer for immediate help, I will use the pick."

3. "Oh, $#!+, everyone I really wanted a crack at is gone.  I hope the trade I want is there for the pick."

That means 2 tiers of players for the first round.  For those who are better at this than I am (probably everyone), whom do you have in these tiers.

Aside: I can't believe how many amateur draft-nicks pencilled in Reinhart and/or Cozens as #2C.  The logic is that, "because the Sabres don't need to draft a C, they should draft..."  If any of them got that indirectly from JNot, I am going to fricking scream.

tier 1 is Lafrieneire and Byfield

tier 2 is Rossi, Stutzle, Raymond, Jarvis, and probably Drysdale

 

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

tier 1 is Lafrieneire and Byfield

tier 2 is Rossi, Stutzle, Raymond, Jarvis, and probably Drysdale

 

Haven’t seen anyone else with Jarvis as high as you do, but he seems underrated from what I’ve seen. You’re OK with us taking him at 7, I take it? Interesting.

Ive seen your take on Holtz. The other guy in the consensus tier 2 you don’t include is Perfetti. How come? Looks like he’s right there with Lafreniere and Rossi in terms of hockey sense and his skill level is high.

My controversial take: if Drysdale is there at 7, I have no problem taking him unless Rossi is also there, needs be damned. Kid is too talented to ignore.

Wheeler in the Athletic seems to think Buffalo will end up with Raymond or Stützle, even if they move up or down, given their needs and tendencies and the needs and tendencies of those in front of them.

[LGR4GM]

31 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Haven’t seen anyone else with Jarvis as high as you do, but he seems underrated from what I’ve seen. You’re OK with us taking him at 7, I take it? Interesting.

Ive seen your take on Holtz. The other guy in the consensus tier 2 you don’t include is Perfetti. How come? Looks like he’s right there with Lafreniere and Rossi in terms of hockey sense and his skill level is high.

My controversial take: if Drysdale is there at 7, I have no problem taking him unless Rossi is also there, needs be damned. Kid is too talented to ignore.

Wheeler in the Athletic seems to think Buffalo will end up with Raymond or Stützle, even if they move up or down, given their needs and tendencies and the needs and tendencies of those in front of them.

Perfetti is in tier 3. I don't love his skating. I think he is good and starts that 3rd tier but he sometimes seems to float occasionally without the puck. 

Holtz does not push the pace of play and every time I watch him I come away thinking how he doesn't actually do a lot. I get less and less excited by Holtz as time goes on. 

If Drysdale is there and so is Jarvis, I take Jarvis hands down. If Rossi is magically there and they draft Drysdale instead, I will no longer watch Sabres hockey until that entire scouting staff, starting with the gm, is gutted. 

Edited June 15, 2020 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

Have you seen anyone projecting Jarvis to go as high as 7? I haven’t.

[LGR4GM]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Have you seen anyone projecting Jarvis to go as high as 7? I haven’t.

Nope. But after last year, I am done with keeping guys lower because nobody has them as high. I should have put Robertson in the top 15 above many other ppl. Jarvis is like better Robertson impo. I won't make the same mistake twice. You don't look like he does on film and put up the points he did without being special. 

Edited June 15, 2020 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

Highest I know of Jarvis being ranked is 11th by elite prospects. I think this is due to 2 things, size (he is 5'10") and position (he's a winger). Nick Robertson is the perfect example of the same thing happening last year, he was a smaller winger an that dropped him in rankings. The info I do not have is on Jarvis' attitude. Is he a hard worker, does he love the game, does he have that burning competitive streak? This is where I am at a disadvantage. What I do know is that he does back check and fore check well and often so that tells me he does play the game hard. My final disclaimer is everyone is guilty of bias and that includes me. Jarvis is someone that I just gravitated towards originally based on production and videos and that has just grown over time. I like how he plays hockey so I get confirmation biases from the other things like points and scouting reports. Do your own research and as always with prospects, if you think something different, say why. Prospects are hard to judge and 1 persons trash can be another persons Robertson. 

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Nope. But after last year, I am done with keeping guys lower because nobody has them as high. I should have put Robertson in the top 15 above many other ppl. Jarvis is like better Robertson impo. I won't make the same mistake twice. You don't look like he does on film and put up the points he did without being special. 

That’s the way it should be.

I like Perfetti a lot. Reminds me of Sam Reinhart with more arrogance to his game. And by that I don’t mean cockiness, I mean he expects to make plays and be better than the other guy.

[Marvin]

11 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

tier 1 is Lafrieneire and Byfield

tier 2 is Rossi, Stutzle, Raymond, Jarvis, and probably Drysdale

Thanks, Liger.

I am glad for a breakdown like this.  What prompted my question was that after "the top tiers", there were classic JBottom "safe picks."  The one with the most play is Anton Lundell.  Holtz is allegedly a steal at 8.  Sanderson is a "safe" defencemen.  Gunler is in this group as well from what I was reading.  IMHO, JNot gets a clear top prospect or should trade out for a #2C.

[LGR4GM]

10 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Thanks, Liger.

I am glad for a breakdown like this.  What prompted my question was that after "the top tiers", there were classic JBottom "safe picks."  The one with the most play is Anton Lundell.  Holtz is allegedly a steal at 8.  Sanderson is a "safe" defencemen.  Gunler is in this group as well from what I was reading.  IMHO, JNot gets a clear top prospect or should trade out for a #2C.

Lundell makes sense for Jbott. Sanderson would make me riot. Gunler I haven't looked at yet so can't talk much about him. 

I keep watching Holtz and I just don't come away impressed. He got top line time and pp time last year. Most of his offense was created by someone else and he just has a great shot. I see some good vision from him but he just doesn't push the tempo enough for me. I want someone creating chaos in the zone and I don't think that is him. I think of him and then think of Cozens or even a Makar. Those guys are making moves and creating chaos in the zone. Holtz can but he often does not. Holtz for me sits at the back end of that 3rd tier. He could completely prove me wrong as he grows up but for now, I just want more from him than I see. 

Edited June 16, 2020 by LGR4GM

[WildCard]

Gonna be interesting to see how we draft now

[Curt]

8 hours ago, WildCard said:

Gonna be interesting to see how we draft now

Sabres will be so lean by draft night that only Terry and a barefoot Adams will be on stage when the pick is made.

[dudacek]

Bob McKenzie’s list, usually considered the best predictor of where players might actually go is out.

Promising news for @LGR4GM is that Rossi is slotted at #7. Most surprising is that Stutzle has pushed past Byfield for #2.

Find out why here: https://www.tsn.ca/bob-mckenzie-s-final-ranking-lafreniere-the-surest-thing-in-most-uncertain-draft-year-1.1488272

Also, the lottery is this week and if we win Lafreniere is apparently already good enough to play on an NHL 1st line next year. If a franchise ever needed a shot in the arm...

Edited June 23, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

This is why I don't trust scouts. Some of the things they claim are important are just silly. "But he was bad in that 7 game tournament so drop him down the rankings!" I just... uhg. Notice how they talk a little about ceilings and stuff but fail to mention that Byfield is almost 1 year younger than Lafrienere and Rossi. Hearing that 2 scouts had Byfield at #6 made me raise eyebrows super high. 

Anyways, I have been reading and watching a lot and I may change up some of my stuff. I am still working on a top 10 but I will say Cole Perfetti has been getting more and more of my attention. 

 

[LGR4GM]

Seth Jarvis at 18.... hahahahahahahahahahahaha lol sure. You wanna know why? The ONLY player listed ahead of him that is also in that height group of 5'9 5'10" is Rossi. 

Also Jan Mysak sliding to the 2nd round would be good news for the Sabres and they should get that. 

[Curt]

37 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This is why I don't trust scouts. Some of the things they claim are important are just silly. "But he was bad in that 7 game tournament so drop him down the rankings!" I just... uhg. Notice how they talk a little about ceilings and stuff but fail to mention that Byfield is almost 1 year younger than Lafrienere and Rossi. Hearing that 2 scouts had Byfield at #6 made me raise eyebrows super high. 

Anyways, I have been reading and watching a lot and I may change up some of my stuff. I am still working on a top 10 but I will say Cole Perfetti has been getting more and more of my attention. 

 

Two scouts had Byfield at 6 and two scouts had Jake Sanderson at 3.  Why do I feel like two scouts were just screwing with Bob?

Edited June 23, 2020 by Curt

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

Two scouts had Byfield at 6 and two scouts had Jake Sanderson at 3.  Why do I feel like two scouts were just screwing with Bob?

They weren't. This is how you get Dylan Cozens at 7. It's how you get Nylander instead of Sergachev. It is why I don't trust solely traditional scouting. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Anyways, I have been reading and watching a lot and I may change up some of my stuff. I am still working on a top 10 but I will say Cole Perfetti has been getting more and more of my attention. 

 

I’m telling you, this kid’s got game. He might be weaker and slower than the others around him, but he’s weaker and slower like Gretzky was weaker and slower than Lafleur and Perreault.

He’s a fox in the henhouse out there.

[dudacek]

38 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

They weren't. This is how you get Dylan Cozens at 7. It's how you get Nylander instead of Sergachev. It is why I don't trust solely traditional scouting. 

Great piece on scouting in the Athletic where they talk to Scouts about scouting. Looks like a lot of NHL scouts agree with you.

https://theathletic.com/1713400/2020/04/06/nhl-scout-poll-what-counts-in-prospect-evaluation-who-does-it-best-and-worst/

Talks about how much certain characteristics are valued and why, the value of analytics, the value of international tournaments, what organizations draft well...

Edited June 23, 2020 by dudacek