Zemgus Signs One Year Deal

[erickompositör72]

16 minutes ago, klos1963 said:

pointed out where?

In another thread. If someone else remembers which one, feel free to link/cite

[GASabresIUFAN]

I wonder if Z signed his deal so quickly because he and his agent realized that the Sabres were running out of roster spots, especially in the bottom 6.  

The Sabres after signing Johansson and Z have only 6.75 in cap space to retain McCabe, Ullmark, and ERod.  They also need cap space to operate during the season and pay Dahlin’s bonuses at year end.  

At this point I’m not sure there is money for Larsson and once McCabe is signed some on D needs to go.  

[PerreaultForever]

On 7/5/2019 at 12:13 PM, Curt said:

He was part of Buffalo’s 2nd best line last season.

only because they were playing against other team's 4th liners. 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

only because they were playing against other team's 4th liners. 

First, I’m glad you agree that they were the 2nd best line.  They accomplished that while starting a higher percent of their shifts in defensive zone than anyone else in the league.

Second, is it really true that they matched up primarily against the opponents 4th line?  I don’t think that it is.

 

[dudacek]

6 hours ago, Curt said:

First, I’m glad you agree that they were the 2nd best line.  They accomplished that while starting a higher percent of their shifts in defensive zone than anyone else in the league.

Second, is it really true that they matched up primarily against the opponents 4th line?  I don’t think that it is.

 

If the other teams were consistently trotting their 4th liners out their for all those O-Zone faceoffs against our 4th line, then other coaches are even dumber than Housley.

Edited July 7, 2019 by dudacek

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

only because they were playing against other team's 4th liners. 

This is so demonstrably false that I have to ask if you are like my wife, who never misses a second of action, but almost never watches the games critically.  We had this discussion in early November, so we watched games in analysis mode until the All-Star Break so that she could see what I did.

To disabuse you of your perception, I recommend that you start with the player on-ice charts which are available for each game of the season at nhl.com.  Aggregates can be found at numerous raw and fancy stats sites.

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

If the other things were consistently trotting their 4th liners out their for all those O-Zone faceoffs against our 4th line, then other coaches are even dumber than Housley.

Thank you.

[pi2000]

On 7/5/2019 at 12:13 PM, Curt said:

He was part of Buffalo’s 2nd best line last season.

In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is King.

[Curt]

5 hours ago, pi2000 said:

In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is King.

Yes, low bar.  I would not expect that to be true on a team with a competent middle-6, but it was unfortunately true on last seasons Sabres.

[Taro T]

On Saturday, July 06, 2019 at 6:36 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

I wonder if Z signed his deal so quickly because he and his agent realized that the Sabres were running out of roster spots, especially in the bottom 6.  

The Sabres after signing Johansson and Z have only 6.75 in cap space to retain McCabe, Ullmark, and ERod.  They also need cap space to operate during the season and pay Dahlin’s bonuses at year end.  

At this point I’m not sure there is money for Larsson and once McCabe is signed some on D needs to go.  

Though not advisable, should it be necessary to cover earned performance bonuses, the team can exceed the cap paying them but lose that from the following season's cap.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Though not advisable, should it be necessary to cover earned performance bonuses, the team can exceed the cap paying them but lose that from the following season's cap.

Which is why we should budget for it now.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I have no issues with Zemgus being signed.  He has developed into a good player in the role he has with this team.  Until there is someone to replace him that is better than him he is welcome on my Sabres team.

[Taro T]

49 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Which is why we should budget for it now.

Budget for it, fine.  But should a true 2C come available, a potential $2MM payment to Dahlin shouldn't preclude it.  

Especially when a LOT of contract money comes off the books after this season.  (Way more than any bonus would be.)  And also especially when even if they try to save to cover the bonus, a spate of injuries could torpedo that cushion.  All salaries of players up with the big club count towards  the cap as long as there is any accrued cap space & BF-LTIR cap relief doesn't occur until there is no cap space remaining.  So if they have a couple million in capspace, that could easily get eaten up quickly by having a few guys out injured.

[Broken Ankles]

On 7/6/2019 at 7:56 PM, E4 ... Ke2 said:

This is so demonstrably false that I have to ask if you are like my wife, who never misses a second of action, but almost never watches the games critically.  We had this discussion in early November, so we watched games in analysis mode until the All-Star Break so that she could see what I did.

To disabuse you of your perception, I recommend that you start with the player on-ice charts which are available for each game of the season at nhl.com.  Aggregates can be found at numerous raw and fancy stats sites.

I don't think the season averages suggest it was demonstrably false.  I have provided a number of other examples besides that of Zemgus to illustrate what a First line (Skinner), Third line (Bozak) and Fourth line (Barbashev) forward look like. Compare and contrast as you will.    To me this suggests exactly what Dudacek commented on, which is a higher than expected ice-time against 1&2 forwards, and #1 D man, due to the number of excessive Defensive zone starts.  However, he had more ice-time than League average against 10-12 forwards and 5/6 Defense (aka 4th line players).   Considering that the last third of the season or more he was playing primarily third line minutes (with Casey, Tage, KO, Wilson, et al playing 4th line) he should have had more ice-time against 4-9 Forwards, but did not.  I'm sure that St. Louis overused ROR in their Defensive zone face-offs so a guy like Barbashev saw slightly less than the League average against 1-3 Forwards.  Barbashev was almost exclusively a 4th line player (when looking at his teammates % of icetime).   Gus on the other hand was more of a bottom six as far as his % icetime with teammates (exceeding League average  with 7-12 forwards).   A third line guy like Bozak (which again was what Gus played for part of the season) played almost all his time against 4-9.  Below league average against 1-3, but also below against 10-12.    I think there was certainly something to the line of Zemgus/Bergland/Larsson early in the season, but that play did not continue in 2019 nor during the losing streak.  I don't think the comment about playing only 4th line players is accurate, nor is it completely false.   The truth is somewhere between this.  I think he was compensated fairly as a  9-11 Forward on an improving team.  I also approve of the term.  

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, Broken Ankles said:

 I don't think the comment about playing only 4th line players is accurate, nor is it completely false.   The truth is somewhere between this.

The original comment about our 4th line (namely Zemgus) being good last season because they (only) played against 4th lines of other teams is 100% false. It just is. No 4th line in the NHL always plays against an opponents 4th line exclusively.

Sure the strawman argument could be that all 4th lines mostly play against the “bottom 6” lines. But that’s not the claim made.

The comment was made to dismiss  or downplay the success and therefore importance of 4th lines and by extension Zemgus. Sure he can be replaced in a heartbeat by other options. But that’s not the point.

Edited July 8, 2019 by Zamboni

[triumph_communes]

2 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

I don't think the season averages suggest it was demonstrably false.  I have provided a number of other examples besides that of Zemgus to illustrate what a First line (Skinner), Third line (Bozak) and Fourth line (Barbashev) forward look like. Compare and contrast as you will.    To me this suggests exactly what Dudacek commented on, which is a higher than expected ice-time against 1&2 forwards, and #1 D man, due to the number of excessive Defensive zone starts.  However, he had more ice-time than League average against 10-12 forwards and 5/6 Defense (aka 4th line players).   Considering that the last third of the season or more he was playing primarily third line minutes (with Casey, Tage, KO, Wilson, et al playing 4th line) he should have had more ice-time against 4-9 Forwards, but did not.  I'm sure that St. Louis overused ROR in their Defensive zone face-offs so a guy like Barbashev saw slightly less than the League average against 1-3 Forwards.  Barbashev was almost exclusively a 4th line player (when looking at his teammates % of icetime).   Gus on the other hand was more of a bottom six as far as his % icetime with teammates (exceeding League average  with 7-12 forwards).   A third line guy like Bozak (which again was what Gus played for part of the season) played almost all his time against 4-9.  Below league average against 1-3, but also below against 10-12.    I think there was certainly something to the line of Zemgus/Bergland/Larsson early in the season, but that play did not continue in 2019 nor during the losing streak.  I don't think the comment about playing only 4th line players is accurate, nor is it completely false.   The truth is somewhere between this.  I think he was compensated fairly as a  9-11 Forward on an improving team.  I also approve of the term.  

 

Interesting graphs. I agree with your logic and assessment, but I  just struggle with them as they really conflict with the eye test for me.  There’s too many minutes of Girgensons/Larsson cycling in the o zone against Bergeron and Marchand last year for me to see such a small sliver in the 1-3.

Edited July 8, 2019 by triumph_communes

[Tondas]

3 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

I don't think the season averages suggest it was demonstrably false.  I have provided a number of other examples besides that of Zemgus to illustrate what a First line (Skinner), Third line (Bozak) and Fourth line (Barbashev) forward look like. Compare and contrast as you will.    To me this suggests exactly what Dudacek commented on, which is a higher than expected ice-time against 1&2 forwards, and #1 D man, due to the number of excessive Defensive zone starts.  However, he had more ice-time than League average against 10-12 forwards and 5/6 Defense (aka 4th line players).   Considering that the last third of the season or more he was playing primarily third line minutes (with Casey, Tage, KO, Wilson, et al playing 4th line) he should have had more ice-time against 4-9 Forwards, but did not.  I'm sure that St. Louis overused ROR in their Defensive zone face-offs so a guy like Barbashev saw slightly less than the League average against 1-3 Forwards.  Barbashev was almost exclusively a 4th line player (when looking at his teammates % of icetime).   Gus on the other hand was more of a bottom six as far as his % icetime with teammates (exceeding League average  with 7-12 forwards).   A third line guy like Bozak (which again was what Gus played for part of the season) played almost all his time against 4-9.  Below league average against 1-3, but also below against 10-12.    I think there was certainly something to the line of Zemgus/Bergland/Larsson early in the season, but that play did not continue in 2019 nor during the losing streak.  I don't think the comment about playing only 4th line players is accurate, nor is it completely false.   The truth is somewhere between this.  I think he was compensated fairly as a  9-11 Forward on an improving team.  I also approve of the term.  

I am definitely old school.  All those graphs just look like bikini wax suggestions to me.

[Curt]

2 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

 

Interesting graphs. I agree with your logic and assessment, but I  just struggle with them as they really conflict with the eye test for me.  There’s too many minutes of Girgensons/Larsson cycling in the o zone against Bergeron and Marchand last year for me to see such a small sliver in the 1-3.

I think you are looking at the wrong side.  The left side is teammates.  Right side is opponents.

So the small slivers on the left side 1-3 are Jack, Sam, and Jeff.  On the right side 1-3 the bars are past the red line, which means that he spent a higher than average percentage of his ice time against the opponents 1st line.

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

I don't think the season averages suggest it was demonstrably false.  I have provided a number of other examples besides that of Zemgus to illustrate what a First line (Skinner), Third line (Bozak) and Fourth line (Barbashev) forward look like. Compare and contrast as you will.    To me this suggests exactly what Dudacek commented on, which is a higher than expected ice-time against 1&2 forwards, and #1 D man, due to the number of excessive Defensive zone starts.  However, he had more ice-time than League average against 10-12 forwards and 5/6 Defense (aka 4th line players).   Considering that the last third of the season or more he was playing primarily third line minutes (with Casey, Tage, KO, Wilson, et al playing 4th line) he should have had more ice-time against 4-9 Forwards, but did not.  I'm sure that St. Louis overused ROR in their Defensive zone face-offs so a guy like Barbashev saw slightly less than the League average against 1-3 Forwards.  Barbashev was almost exclusively a 4th line player (when looking at his teammates % of icetime).   Gus on the other hand was more of a bottom six as far as his % icetime with teammates (exceeding League average  with 7-12 forwards).   A third line guy like Bozak (which again was what Gus played for part of the season) played almost all his time against 4-9.  Below league average against 1-3, but also below against 10-12.    I think there was certainly something to the line of Zemgus/Bergland/Larsson early in the season, but that play did not continue in 2019 nor during the losing streak.  I don't think the comment about playing only 4th line players is accurate, nor is it completely false.   The truth is somewhere between this.  I think he was compensated fairly as a  9-11 Forward on an improving team.  I also approve of the term.  

Your chart shows that he played against the other team's top line more often than average and their 4th line more often than average.  Which could be explained by Housley (when actually caring about line matching) having used him against the other team's top line when possible (likely at home) and opposing coaches tried to get him out against their 4th line to kill 2 birds - keep him away from their top line and due to the low likelihood of his line scoring keep their worst line out when they had little chance of giving up a goal.  (That 4th line which was the Sabres 2nd best with Berglund or Okposo on it, was very effective at playing low event hockey at both ends of the ice.)

[Broken Ankles]

45 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Your chart shows that he played against the other team's top line more often than average and their 4th line more often than average.  Which could be explained by Housley (when actually caring about line matching) having used him against the other team's top line when possible (likely at home) and opposing coaches tried to get him out against their 4th line to kill 2 birds - keep him away from their top line and due to the low likelihood of his line scoring keep their worst line out when they had little chance of giving up a goal.  (That 4th line which was the Sabres 2nd best with Berglund or Okposo on it, was very effective at playing low event hockey at both ends of the ice.)

Awesome theory.  If someone wants to pull Home/away for all games 2018/2019 you can see it, as Hockeyviz has each game with a better display (below).  I pulled a random home game and Zemgus/Larsson/Pommers were shown as 4th line.  Playing more against 1-9 than 10-12.  And not quite low event, as they seemingly were outplayed until they faced the 4th line, where they appeared to dominate.   Love to pull all the games but back to work. 

[Broken Ankles]

5 hours ago, Tondas said:

I am definitely old school.  All those graphs just look like bikini wax suggestions to me.

definitely old school as waxing today looks like this.......

 

 

 

 

 

(empty spaces)

[Taro T]

9 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Awesome theory.  If someone wants to pull Home/away for all games 2018/2019 you can see it, as Hockeyviz has each game with a better display (below).  I pulled a random home game and Zemgus/Larsson/Pommers were shown as 4th line.  Playing more against 1-9 than 10-12.  And not quite low event, as they seemingly were outplayed until they faced the 4th line, where they appeared to dominate.   Love to pull all the games but back to work. 

Note, I should've clarified that the low event hockey was with Berglund or Okposo on the RW.  They were far worse when Sobotka or Pominville wa there.  (Seemed that Z and Larsson had issues jelling with Rodrigues and Wilson as well.)

They were extremely low event at both ends with Bergy and only marginally more eventful with Kyle on their right side.

Sorry for the confusion.

[triumph_communes]

7 hours ago, Curt said:

I think you are looking at the wrong side.  The left side is teammates.  Right side is opponents.

So the small slivers on the left side 1-3 are Jack, Sam, and Jeff.  On the right side 1-3 the bars are past the red line, which means that he spent a higher than average percentage of his ice time against the opponents 1st line.

Thanks, I indeed was reading it backwards.