Risto said it's time for him to go?

[Taro T]

43 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

How would Risto do as a RW?

Branching out from trade ideas.  Expanding the brand.    Keep up the good work.

[Broken Ankles]

12 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

How would Risto do as a RW?

I’d be open to Tage moving to Defense before moving Ristolainen to the wing.  A few reasons.  First it was successful with Burns.  Two, Tage can learn in Rochester for a year or two while he builds strength.  No risk.  Ristolainen requires an immediate transition and learning on the job with the big club while burdening our cap would only hurt us.  Lastly, don’t we already have a RW burning $6m in salary while playing 4th line minutes.  

[IKnowPhysics]

Tage is not a good enough skater, especially considering the specialization of skating and positioning required at high levels of hockey.

Defensemen take years to develop properly, and he is too far along to develop to a competent defensive player within his ELC.

[LGR4GM]

Bump...

this seems to be all over the skinner thread so bump. 

Should we keep or trade Rasmus Ristolainen? 

4 minutes ago, darksabre said:

To me, the biggest argument in favor of keeping Risto is that the Sabres have FOUR UFA defensemen on the roster for this coming season: Bogo, Scandella, Hunwick, and Nelson.

If the Sabres let all of those guys walk it frees up 12.2 million in cap space and as many as four defensive roster spots.

Our defense next July could be Dahlin, Risto, Montour, and McCabe.

Without Risto the cap space ends up being 17.6 million. I think that's where the argument for moving him comes in. But I might be inclined to wait until next summer to do it.

 

[nfreeman]

On 5/14/2019 at 8:56 AM, LGR4GM said:

Risto takes the most solo zone exits (so he doesn't use his team to exit as much as anyone else) and it results in this

The short version is Risto needs a coach and he needs to listen to that coach, if he won't TRADE HIM. He tries to carry the puck out of the zone the most and is the worst at it. He should be using his teammates more. 

That was maybe the best Stimson Sabres analytics article that I've seen.  Thanks.

[Thorner]

Stimson also thinks the Sabres would be fine at D with Nelson slotting into the top 4 this year, which I think is nuts. The guy hasn't played more that 38 games in an NHL season.

[dudacek]

28 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Stimson also thinks the Sabres would be fine at D with Nelson slotting into the top 4 this year, which I think is nuts. The guy hasn't played more that 38 games in an NHL season.

Don’t analytics tell us that Nelson is significantly better than Ristolainen?

[Thorner]

15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Don’t analytics tell us that Nelson is significantly better than Ristolainen?

Betting on a 27 year old Nelson, who's never played more than 38 games in a season, to continue having metrics that good, or the metrics of the quality necessary to play top 4, when faced with vastly more minutes and competition (and games?) seems like a laughable and beyond risky bet to make, in a season where real progress is necessary. 

Edited June 11, 2019 by Thorny

[TrueBlueGED]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Don’t analytics tell us that Nelson is significantly better than Ristolainen?

No, they tell us that Nelson was a lot better in his role than Risto was in his. To what extent that translates (for either of them) to a different role is open to interpretation. 

[Curt]

25 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

No, they tell us that Nelson was a lot better in his role than Risto was in his. To what extent that translates (for either of them) to a different role is open to interpretation. 

This is it.  Nelson performed better when used as a part-time 3rd pair D than Risto did when used like one of the top-10 D in the entire league.  The difference in their usage is so vast that it makes comparing their Corsi numbers almost completely irrelevant.  And I don’t even like a Risto very much.

[TrueBlueGED]

7 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:

This is it.  Nelson performed better when used as a part-time 3rd pair D than Risto did when used like one of the top-10 D in the entire league.  The difference in their usage is so vast that it makes comparing their Corsi numbers almost completely irrelevant.  And I don’t even like a Risto very much.

Well, that's not entirely true. All of the evidence I'm familiar with suggests player usage has only a mild effect on things like corsi.

[dudacek]

I like Nelson more than most, but it is crazy to think he is even remotely in the same stratosphere as Risto as an NHL player.

What Nelson does well (meeting the rush at the blueline, exiting the zone) seem to be the skills that analytics tend to favour.

[LGR4GM]

11 hours ago, dudacek said:

I like Nelson more than most, but it is crazy to think he is even remotely in the same stratosphere as Risto as an NHL player.

What Nelson does well (meeting the rush at the blueline, exiting the zone) seem to be the skills that analytics tend to favour.

What does Ristolainen do well in the defensive zone? 

There's a reason analytics favor those skills. They lead to puck possession and scoring chances. 

[North Buffalo]

36 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What does Ristolainen do well in the defensive zone? 

There's a reason analytics favor those skills. They lead to puck possession and scoring chances. 

He hits, does pretty well in corners, blocks shots can move guys out of the front of the net.  If he could ever figure out how to clear the zone consistently the he'd be much better.

Edited June 11, 2019 by North Buffalo

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

What does Ristolainen do well in the defensive zone?

Wins puck battles, protects the crease, hounds the puck carrier

Edited June 11, 2019 by dudacek

[darksabre]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Wins puck battles, protects the crease, hounds the puck carrier

I don't think he actually does those things very well.

I see him being clumsy, especially when it comes to handling the puck in tight spaces. He's shockingly bad at handling aggressive forecheckers.

He also tends to wander/chase which confuses his teammates and screws up zone exits. Not to mention that he's slow in pursuit, so he struggles to catch the players he's chasing.

Every time an opponent gains the zone (which they will, because he doesn't defend the blue line very well), he basically has one chance to make a play to get the puck and clear the zone. If he fails at that chance, then expect to be spending a bunch of time in your own end.

I'm convinced the reason his ice time is so high is because once you get him on the ice it's hard to get him off. I'd love some stats about how much of Risto's ice time is spent in which zones, because I suspect he spends a lot more time in his own end than anywhere else.

 

[Doohicksie]

Risto will be RFK's first project.  If he can coach him out of his bad habits that will bode will for the team, especially the defense.

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I don't think he actually does those things very well.

I see him being clumsy, especially when it comes to handling the puck in tight spaces. He's shockingly bad at handling aggressive forecheckers.

He also tends to wander/chase which confuses his teammates and screws up zone exits. Not to mention that he's slow in pursuit, so he struggles to catch the players he's chasing.

Every time an opponent gains the zone (which they will, because he doesn't defend the blue line very well), he basically has one chance to make a play to get the puck and clear the zone. If he fails at that chance, then expect to be spending a bunch of time in your own end.

I'm convinced the reason his ice time is so high is because once you get him on the ice it's hard to get him off. I'd love some stats about how much of Risto's ice time is spent in which zones, because I suspect he spends a lot more time in his own end than anywhere else.

 

These are definitely his issues.

[Curt]

17 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I'm convinced the reason his ice time is so high is because once you get him on the ice it's hard to get him off. I'd love some stats about how much of Risto's ice time is spent in which zones, because I suspect he spends a lot more time in his own end than anywhere else.

Hey, with the new player tracking coming to the NHL, you may actually see this information in the near future!

[darksabre]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

These are definitely his issues.

Risto is a tough player to judge.

If you look at someone who has comparable usage (TOI, zone start %), Zdeno Chara, you see that Chara has *significantly* better corsi numbers. Like, they aren't even *close*. 

Now, certainly, the Bruins have been a better team for a long time, but still. I don't think that is enough to account for how bad Risto's numbers are.

Risto has always been in the negative, even during the 17-18 season where Housley flipped his usage in favor of more O zone starts than D zone starts (the only time in his career that this has been the case).

I don't think Risto is bad. But I'm not convinced he's good either. Because in his career the more D zone starts he gets, the more opportunities the Sabres give up. It's almost a direct correlation.

[darksabre]

If you want to get weird, Lawrence Pilut in 33 games with similar zone start % to Risto and Chara, but with less TOI, had Chara-esque Corsi numbers.

I'm trying to think of a player that gets as much ice time as Risto but has such bad Corsi numbers. I really don't know.

[darksabre]

I guess for me it's a chicken/egg argument. Are the Sabres bad because Risto is bad, or is Risto bad because the Sabres are bad?

Evidence seems to suggest that Risto is a contributor to the problem, not a victim.

[WildCard]

8 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I guess for me it's a chicken/egg argument. Are the Sabres bad because Risto is bad, or is Risto bad because the Sabres are bad?

Evidence seems to suggest that Risto is a contributor to the problem, not a victim.

To me that doesn't even matter. My question is, can we make him better/good? It's pretty clear that, however he got there, he's not good right now. Do we want to stick with that and see if we can change him, or just let someone else figure it out

[darksabre]

2 minutes ago, WildCard said:

To me that doesn't even matter. My question is, can we make him better/good? It's pretty clear that, however he got there, he's not good right now. Do we want to stick with that and see if we can change him, or just let someone else figure it out

I think the canary in the coal mine for me is that changing his zone deployment didn't result in significantly better corsi numbers for him. Most players, when you give them favorable starts like that, tend to reward you with better corsi numbers.

Not so for Risto.

[SwampD]

34 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I guess for me it's a chicken/egg argument. Are the Sabres bad because Risto is bad, or is Risto bad because the Sabres are bad?

Evidence seems to suggest that Risto is a contributor to the problem, not a victim.

But we were bad when Pilut was getting good corsi numbers, too.