Risto said it's time for him to go?

[inkman]

14 hours ago, Curtisp5286 said:

Not exactly.  Kreuger basically says it’s one tool in the tool kit, and can be applied by coaches/management in some ways, but doesn’t want to burden the players with the numbers directly.  Which I took to mean that advanced metrics have their uses, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle.

I'm not sure how'd you infuse analytics into the players games. You are designing systems and player usage based on the analytics, not telling the players "Risto you suck at exit zone passes, don't ever do it." You put players in positions to succeed with this information not hand it to the players and tell them to figure it out. 

[Brawndo]

17 hours ago, Curtisp5286 said:

Not exactly.  Kreuger basically says it’s one tool in the tool kit, and can be applied by coaches/management in some ways, but doesn’t want to burden the players with the numbers directly.  Which I took to mean that advanced metrics have their uses, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle.

I think he is going to revamp the way the Sabres use analytics. From player usage, line matching, construction of lines to player acquisition. As Ink said above players will be put in position to succeed by the coaching staff using the information at hand. 

[Curt]

8 hours ago, inkman said:

I'm not sure how'd you infuse analytics into the players games. You are designing systems and player usage based on the analytics, not telling the players "Risto you suck at exit zone passes, don't ever do it." You put players in positions to succeed with this information not hand it to the players and tell them to figure it out. 

I didn’t say anything about infusing numbers into the players games.  I just paraphrased what Krueger said about using analytics as one thing to consider but not presenting the numbers directly to players.  

Did my comment come across as suggesting that the numbers should be given directly to the players?  If it did, my apologies, wasn’t my intent.

[Curt]

4 hours ago, Brawndo said:

I think he is going to revamp the way the Sabres use analytics. From player usage, line matching, construction of lines to player acquisition. As Ink said above players will be put in position to succeed by the coaching staff using the information at hand. 

This is my hope as well.  With increased use, he can justify a need for increased investment.  He can put pressure on the President to make a larger investment into the Analytics Department by insisting that it is needed in order to run the team as well as possible.

Edited May 19, 2019 by Curtisp5286

[Swordsman]

The Ristolainen situation is just as polarizing a topic as the O'Reilly debates were last summer (before the trade):

- It seems that those in favor of trading him understand that: 1) he's plateaued into what he'll be: a physical, mobile player with offensive instincts and a combative spirit but limited hockey IQ and low panic threshold; and 2) if the Sabres are going to make significant upgrades to their roster via trades, he's their most marketable asset that they can offer (unless the 7th OA draft pick and/or Reinhart are considered in play).

- It seems that those dead-set against trading him fear that: 1) a repeat of the O'Reilly aftermath where he starred for St.Louis this season will occur with Ristolainen on another team as well; and 2) the Sabres' defense isn't set up to replace his minutes and role, even if reduced to a 2nd or 3rd pairing.

I do find it interesting that, considering how much focus many who wanted O'Reilly gone after his lockerroom comments last year, not many are pointing out that Ristolainen more or less acknowledged in his locker closeout comments this year that it may be time for him to leave (or "change of scenery"). Hamilton asked him pointedly if he wanted to be back in Buffalo and Ristolainen just shrugged and said, "I don't know".

[#freejame]

10 hours ago, Swordsman said:

The Ristolainen situation is just as polarizing a topic as the O'Reilly debates were last summer (before the trade):

- It seems that those in favor of trading him understand that: 1) he's plateaued into what he'll be: a physical, mobile player with offensive instincts and a combative spirit but limited hockey IQ and low panic threshold; and 2) if the Sabres are going to make significant upgrades to their roster via trades, he's their most marketable asset that they can offer (unless the 7th OA draft pick and/or Reinhart are considered in play).

- It seems that those dead-set against trading him fear that: 1) a repeat of the O'Reilly aftermath where he starred for St.Louis this season will occur with Ristolainen on another team as well; and 2) the Sabres' defense isn't set up to replace his minutes and role, even if reduced to a 2nd or 3rd pairing.

I do find it interesting that, considering how much focus many who wanted O'Reilly gone after his lockerroom comments last year, not many are pointing out that Ristolainen more or less acknowledged in his locker closeout comments this year that it may be time for him to leave (or "change of scenery"). Hamilton asked him pointedly if he wanted to be back in Buffalo and Ristolainen just shrugged and said, "I don't know".

I would be interested in seeing the overlap between the trade ROR and trade Risto camps and vice-versa

[SwampD]

18 hours ago, Swordsman said:

The Ristolainen situation is just as polarizing a topic as the O'Reilly debates were last summer (before the trade):

- It seems that those in favor of trading him understand that: 1) he's plateaued into what he'll be: a physical, mobile player with offensive instincts and a combative spirit but limited hockey IQ and low panic threshold; and 2) if the Sabres are going to make significant upgrades to their roster via trades, he's their most marketable asset that they can offer (unless the 7th OA draft pick and/or Reinhart are considered in play).

- It seems that those dead-set against trading him fear that: 1) a repeat of the O'Reilly aftermath where he starred for St.Louis this season will occur with Ristolainen on another team as well; and 2) the Sabres' defense isn't set up to replace his minutes and role, even if reduced to a 2nd or 3rd pairing.

I do find it interesting that, considering how much focus many who wanted O'Reilly gone after his lockerroom comments last year, not many are pointing out that Ristolainen more or less acknowledged in his locker closeout comments this year that it may be time for him to leave (or "change of scenery"). Hamilton asked him pointedly if he wanted to be back in Buffalo and Ristolainen just shrugged and said, "I don't know".

He also said that Buffalo was home for him, feels like home, he loves everything about Buffalo, and that he honestly never even thought about a change of scenery before Paul’s stupid question.

Edited May 20, 2019 by SwampD

[Thorner]

@inkman's skepticism of my comparing of the Reinhart trade situation to the Ristolainen one..

I think Botterill was listening to offers on Reinhart earlier on, around the time before he got his bridge deal. I don't think he was sold on Reinhart, thus the bridge. That contract looks like a mistake at this point, so I think there had to be some doubt there. 

I don't think that's the case anymore, though. 

[inkman]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

@inkman's skepticism of my comparing of the Reinhart trade situation to the Ristolainen one..

I think Botterill was listening to offers on Reinhart earlier on, around the time before he got his bridge deal. I don't think he was sold on Reinhart, thus the bridge. That contract looks like a mistake at this point, so I think there had to be some doubt there. 

I don't think that's the case anymore, though. 

This place would have erupted had Samson gotten a 5+ year deal for 6.5 mill a year. He's sure as heck gonna get that and more after this deal. 

[Thorner]

Just now, inkman said:

This place would have erupted had Samson gotten a 5+ year deal for 6.5 mill a year. He's sure as heck gonna get that and more after this deal. 

Some would have, and they'd have been wrong. Botterill definitely takes a mulligan on that deal if he could. See: the bolded. 

[#freejame]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

This place would have erupted had Samson gotten a 5+ year deal for 6.5 mill a year. He's sure as heck gonna get that and more after this deal. 

I don’t think this is the case at all. There’s plenty of posters that wanted a long term deal and had strong suspicions of the player Sam would become/was. 

[Huckleberry]

2 hours ago, inkman said:

This place would have erupted had Samson gotten a 5+ year deal for 6.5 mill a year. He's sure as heck gonna get that and more after this deal. 

I would have given him 6x6 for sure, now he'll ask 6x8.

[inkman]

1 hour ago, #freejame said:

I don’t think this is the case at all. There’s plenty of posters that wanted a long term deal and had strong suspicions of the player Sam would become/was. 

Plenty, yes. Majority, I highly doubt it. There certainly would have been an overly vocal minority that would have skewered JBOT. 

[Thorner]

13 minutes ago, inkman said:

Plenty, yes. Majority, I highly doubt it. There certainly would have been an overly vocal minority that would have skewered JBOT. 

The jury is definitely still out on his contract management so far.

Eichel 10m per x 8 right off the bat. If Eichel takes that next step, this could be a very strong deal. Not quite there yet. 

Reinhart getting bridged. 

Skinner situation. 

Hasn't had success unloading any of our contract anomalies and added two in Berglund and Sobotka, getting a little lucky on the first. 

---

The trickier part is likely coming up, so it's tough to give much of a grade thus far. 

Edited May 20, 2019 by Thorny

[dudacek]

Athletic talks potential Risto trade scenarios today. Here are the interested teams:

Oilers would do it for a worse defenceman (Sekera, Russell) or Milan Lucic!

Jets: Trouba on the block

Canucks: Virtanen and/or prospects

Lightning: Tyler Johnson

Flyers: picks and lesser prospects

The piece is speculative on the reporters’ part, but Trouba was the only name on there that would tempt me to trade Risto. Other than Johnson, who would have to waive, the rest was a bunch of other team’s crap. If that is truly the market right now for Risto, he should be going nowhere.

[pi2000]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Athletic talks potential Risto trade scenarios today. Here are the interested teams:

Oilers would do it for a worse defenceman (Sekera, Russell) or Milan Lucic!

Jets: Trouba on the block

Canucks: Virtanen and/or prospects

Lightning: Tyler Johnson

Flyers: picks and lesser prospects

The piece is speculative on the reporters’ part, but Trouba was the only name on there that would tempt me to trade Risto. Other than Johnson, who would have to waive, the rest was a bunch of other team’s crap. If that is truly the market right now for Risto, he should be going nowhere.

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

[Drunkard]

19 hours ago, dudacek said:

Athletic talks potential Risto trade scenarios today. Here are the interested teams:

Oilers would do it for a worse defenceman (Sekera, Russell) or Milan Lucic!

Jets: Trouba on the block

Canucks: Virtanen and/or prospects

Lightning: Tyler Johnson

Flyers: picks and lesser prospects

The piece is speculative on the reporters’ part, but Trouba was the only name on there that would tempt me to trade Risto. Other than Johnson, who would have to waive, the rest was a bunch of other team’s crap. If that is truly the market right now for Risto, he should be going nowhere.

New underestimate the appeal of the mystery box. Botterill can't resist the appeal of a late first round pick and his preferred approach of trading quarters for nickels and slugs (Kane and O'Reilly trades). Someone will dangle a mediocre center with 2 cap dumps and a 1st in front of him and we can watch as Zach Bogosian plays in the top 4 (if he's healthy).

[LGR4GM]

59 minutes ago, Drunkard said:

New underestimate the appeal of the mystery box. Botterill can't resist the appeal of a late first round pick and his preferred approach of trading quarters for nickels and slugs (Kane and O'Reilly trades). Someone will dangle a mediocre center with 2 cap dumps and a 1st in front of him and we can watch as Zach Bogosian plays in the top 4 (if he's healthy).

There's a thread for this. Go there. 

[IKnowPhysics]

I think there's a serious case to be had for keeping Ristolainen, based on his promising use with Pilut over McCabe.

CF%, GF%, HDCF% (and minutes) in 5v5:

McCabe-Risto: 48.08%, 39.02%, 47.59% (482 minutes)

Pilut-Risto: 55.61%, 44.44%, 60.00% (222 minutes)

Pilut-Risto not only had better possession rates than McCabe-Risto, they had better goal production and high-danger corsi rates.

 

What's also noteworthy is that despite the decent 55.61 CF% and 60.00 HDCF%, the GF% was still only 44.44%.  That could have easily been goaltending.

[dudacek]

I wonder how three balanced pairs Risto/Pilut, Bogo/Dahlin, Monty/McCabe would do.

[IKnowPhysics]

49 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I wonder how three balanced pairs Risto/Pilut, Bogo/Dahlin, Monty/McCabe would do.

Montour played with Risto and McCabe with great success, but it was only for relatively short total times.  He also played great with Dahlin.  Other players... not so much.

If I get some nerd time this weekend, I'll do a defensemen analysis like I did after last season and look at pairings.  I think there's some interesting data in the WOWYs about what was tried and whether pairings with good possession correlated into good GF%s.

[Swordsman]

On ‎5‎/‎23‎/‎2019 at 12:05 PM, dudacek said:

Athletic talks potential Risto trade scenarios today. Here are the interested teams:

Oilers would do it for a worse defenceman (Sekera, Russell) or Milan Lucic!

Jets: Trouba on the block

Canucks: Virtanen and/or prospects

Lightning: Tyler Johnson

Flyers: picks and lesser prospects

The piece is speculative on the reporters’ part, but Trouba was the only name on there that would tempt me to trade Risto. Other than Johnson, who would have to waive, the rest was a bunch of other team’s crap. If that is truly the market right now for Risto, he should be going nowhere.

Johnson at 29 with 5 more years of term seems destined to be another anchor contract that any team regrets owning very soon IMO - assuming that Cirelli and Cernak are dealbreakers from Lightning's perspective (as are the obvious core players there), Miller is the only credible option to consider taking back if Ristolainen is traded there. He can play all 3 forward positions, is strong defensively but still creative offensively and has tons of speed. Plus, at age 26, he fits in better with the 4 years of remaining term he has. He also seems like a good option to be 2C for 1-2 years until Mittelstadt is ready to take over that spot, afterwhich Miller then slides down into the 3C role.

If it's Edmonton, it has to be a package that has either Nugent-Hopkins or Adam Larsson included. No way should a cap dump like Lucic be considered.

The Tampa theories offer hope for the forward ranks but the Winnipeg scenario of swapping Ristolainen for Trouba - even if it means adding another $2M in cap with a new contract for Trouba - is the most appealing IMO. Trouba at age 25 as a strong 2-way defenseman who can play a shutdown role, a QB role and is so strong at both 5x5 play as well as on both specialty teams would really solidify the RH side with Montour for years to come. I just hope Botterill has the guts to step up and make a play for him, considering how many other teams will be interested and contacting the Jets about him.

I have no idea why the Flyers would be interested or - more importantly - what the Sabres would think they could realistically get from Philly. Dumping Ristolainen for draft picks and prospects would be just as bad as the O'Reilly trade was - Ristolainen is really the only prime asset the Sabres have (unless one considers Reinhart as available) and Buffalo needs to hit a home run if they trade him.

[Swordsman]

49 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Montour played with Risto and McCabe with great success, but it was only for relatively short total times.  He also played great with Dahlin.  Other players... not so much.

If I get some nerd time this weekend, I'll do a defensemen analysis like I did after last season and look at pairings.  I think there's some interesting data in the WOWYs about what was tried and whether pairings with good possession correlated into good GF%s.

If Botterill has the kind of offseason I'm hoping/praying for, we'll see the following defensive pairings:

Dahlin - Trouba

McCabe - Montour

Pilut - Pysyk

Bogosian as 7th man

[inkman]

14 hours ago, Swordsman said:

If Botterill has the kind of offseason I'm hoping/praying for, we'll see the following defensive pairings:

Dahlin - Trouba

McCabe - Montour

Pilut - Pysyk

Bogosian as 7th man

There is a zero percent change BOGO is a 7th defenseman on anyone's NHL roster. At worst he's a 5, when he's good he can slot into the 4 role with ease. 

[thewookie1]

How would Risto do as a RW?