Risto said it's time for him to go?

[darksabre]

Just now, SwampD said:

But we were bad when Pilut was getting good corsi numbers, too. 

Right. So who the hell knows. There's a lot that Corsi doesn't tell us, which is why I'm very on the fence about the whole thing.

[dudacek]

How many of you are to the point where you get tense when watching Risto defend, thinking he's going to ***** something up?

[darksabre]

My general feeling is that if Botterill does trade Risto this summer, it will be:

1. For a return that fans will not be happy with

2. Because he thinks the team is better off without him than with him

 

If he plays hardball with Risto and doesn't trade him, it will be:

1. Because he thinks the team is better off with him than without him

2. Because Kreuger might be able to get more out of him on the ice and/or increase his trade value for next off-season

 

It all comes down to whether or not Botterill thinks Risto is a positive contributor.

Other teams have to know this and know that they can low-ball Botterill all day long on Risto.

I would be surprised if he nets a big return.

[pi2000]

What does Kruger bring to the table that suggests he can fix Risto's game?     Housley was supposed to be the guy to fix the D, and we all know how that turned out.   

Kruger brings positivity and leadership, which is great, but I don't see how that will translate to a better Risto.

[darksabre]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

How many of you are to the point where you get tense when watching Risto defend, thinking he's going to ***** something up?

Honestly, his o-zone decision making frustrates me more than his d-zone weaknesses.

[pi2000]

15 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Right. So who the hell knows. There's a lot that Corsi doesn't tell us, which is why I'm very on the fence about the whole thing.

TRpm tho

[darksabre]

2 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

What does Kruger bring to the table that suggests he can fix Risto's game?     Housley was supposed to be the guy to fix the D, and we all know how that turned out.   

Kruger brings positivity and leadership, which is great, but I don't see how that will translate to a better Risto.

Risto has been the exact same player under 3 different coaches. I don't see him changing under Kreuger.

[Taro T]

22 minutes ago, SwampD said:

But we were bad when Pilut was getting good corsi numbers, too. 

But Pilut's Corsi might have been elevated a bit by the goaltending being just this side of hot garbage when he was up.  (If the goalie doesn't make the saves he's supposed to make, the other team gets fewer shot attempts as they aren't attempting to bury rebounds. ? )

[SwampD]

7 minutes ago, Taro T said:

But Pilut's Corsi might have been elevated a bit by the goaltending being just this side of hot garbage when he was up.  (If the goalie doesn't make the saves he's supposed to make, the other team gets fewer shot attempts as they aren't attempting to bury rebounds. ? )

Yep. There is just so much lacking with defensive stats. Does all the stuff we have said Risto is good at even have a stat?

[darksabre]

7 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Yep. There is just so much lacking with defensive stats. Does all the stuff we have said Risto is good at even have a stat?

I think what Risto is good at is debatable.

All I know is the stats don't refute my eye test opinion.

[SwampD]

Just now, darksabre said:

I think what Risto is good at is debatable.

All I know is the stats don't refute my eye test opinion.

They do when it comes to Pilut.

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Yep. There is just so much lacking with defensive stats. Does all the stuff we have said Risto is good at even have a stat?

Good f'ing question.

[darksabre]

Just now, SwampD said:

They do when it comes to Pilut.

Not necessarily. There's probably strength of competition to think about with Pilut. He was probably not playing against opposition that is as tough as Risto despite similar zone deployment.

So it makes sense for him to have better Corsi numbers than Risto despite the eye test suggesting he was probably not as good in the D zone. He made up for it on offense, which is something that Risto doesn't/can't do. 

[dudacek]

22 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Not necessarily. There's probably strength of competition to think about with Pilut. He was probably not playing against opposition that is as tough as Risto despite similar zone deployment.

So it makes sense for him to have better Corsi numbers than Risto despite the eye test suggesting he was probably not as good in the D zone. He made up for it on offense, which is something that Risto doesn't/can't do. 

Pilut has 1 goal and six points in his NHL career.

Risto is something like the 20th highest scoring defenceman in the entire NHL over the past 4 years.

I wish Risto used his teammates better offensively, but I don’t understand why his production basically gets ignored by so many people.

 

[TrueBlueGED]

2 hours ago, darksabre said:

I don't think he actually does those things very well.

I see him being clumsy, especially when it comes to handling the puck in tight spaces. He's shockingly bad at handling aggressive forecheckers.

He also tends to wander/chase which confuses his teammates and screws up zone exits. Not to mention that he's slow in pursuit, so he struggles to catch the players he's chasing.

Every time an opponent gains the zone (which they will, because he doesn't defend the blue line very well), he basically has one chance to make a play to get the puck and clear the zone. If he fails at that chance, then expect to be spending a bunch of time in your own end.

I'm convinced the reason his ice time is so high is because once you get him on the ice it's hard to get him off. I'd love some stats about how much of Risto's ice time is spent in which zones, because I suspect he spends a lot more time in his own end than anywhere else.

 

You complete me.

2 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Risto will be RFK's first project.  If he can coach him out of his bad habits that will bode will for the team, especially the defense.

I honestly don't expect RFK is going to have an opportunity to work with Risto. 

1 hour ago, darksabre said:

If you want to get weird, Lawrence Pilut in 33 games with similar zone start % to Risto and Chara, but with less TOI, had Chara-esque Corsi numbers.

I'm trying to think of a player that gets as much ice time as Risto but has such bad Corsi numbers. I really don't know.

I'm tellin' ya: Dion Phaneuf. 

1 hour ago, WildCard said:

To me that doesn't even matter. My question is, can we make him better/good? It's pretty clear that, however he got there, he's not good right now. Do we want to stick with that and see if we can change him, or just let someone else figure it out

Risto has 424 NHL games played and makes $5.4M. It's time to let somebody else be disappointed.

59 minutes ago, dudacek said:

How many of you are to the point where you get tense when watching Risto defend, thinking he's going to ***** something up?

It's hard for me to believe anyone isn't at this point. 

Separately, a quick point on player usage: Yes, Risto has a really high percentage of "defensive zone starts" (just shy of 56%), but it's important to add some context to that particular statistic--it's simply a ratio of non-neutral zone shift starts that began with a faceoff. So yes, Housley put Risto out to start his shift in the defensive zone more than to start his shift in the offensive zone, but these are a pretty small minority of all shift starts. Risto had 1624 shifts in 2018-19. The breakdown is below:

--Offensive zone: 203

--Defensive zone: 256

--Neutral zone: 303

--On-the-fly: 862

TLDR: Let's not get carried away with how much the zone start statistic can explain his poor metrics. About 84% of the time Risto is stepping onto the ice in a situation other than the defensive zone. I think this supports the idea that the quality of his own play has a lot more to do with how he gets trapped in his own end than anything the coach does.

[steveoath]

Risto was frustrating last season. To me, he looks like there is talent in there... See burns, Brent being walked. But then he has absolute brain fart moments.

[darksabre]

I guess the way I look at it is this:

If we assume that most of Risto's ice time is coming against his toughest opposition and starting in the defensive zone, then his Corsi numbers indicate that he's not very good at that deployment.

The highest average TOI he ever had in a season was during the year where his usage was flipped to have more o zone deployments than d zone deployments. As a result his mediocre CF% did improve. Why? Because a larger percentage of his overall icetime was coming against easier opponents in more favorable deployments. He was still drawing the tough work, but he was able, for that one season, to masque it with some productive easier work.

Basically, all signs point to Risto in the role of top line defender being a bad usage for him if you want him to be productive. He needs more favorable ice time against weaker competition.

[TrueBlueGED]

2 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I guess the way I look at it is this:

If we assume that most of Risto's ice time is coming against his toughest opposition and starting in the defensive zone, then his Corsi numbers indicate that he's not very good at that deployment.

The highest average TOI he ever had in a season was during the year where his usage was flipped to have more o zone deployments than d zone deployments. As a result his mediocre CF% did improve. Why? Because a larger percentage of his overall icetime was coming against easier opponents in more favorable deployments. He was still drawing the tough work, but he was able, for that one season, to masque it with some productive easier work.

Basically, all signs point to Risto in the role of top line defender being a bad usage for him if you want him to be productive. He needs more favorable ice time against weaker competition.

And at that point, do you want to pay him $5.4M? I can find guys who need protection for less money. Moreover, if some GM out there thinks Risto is anything more than what he is, then the return could easily be better than keeping him, completely independent of his contract.

[SwampD]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Pilut has 1 goal and six points in his NHL career.

Risto is something like the 20th highest scoring defenceman in the entire NHL over the past 4 years.

I wish Risto used his teammates better offensively, but I don’t understand why his production basically gets ignored by so many people.

 

I remember a play where Risto went up against two players on the endboards, the puck bounced out weirdly to a wide open man in front of our net (so that's three opposing players against Risto) and the ensuing goal was seen as his fault. 

I think he is better than the current stats and their interpretation show, and I would love to see his game in the playoffs.

 

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I guess the way I look at it is this:

If we assume that most of Risto's ice time is coming against his toughest opposition and starting in the defensive zone, then his Corsi numbers indicate that he's not very good at that deployment.

The highest average TOI he ever had in a season was during the year where his usage was flipped to have more o zone deployments than d zone deployments. As a result his mediocre CF% did improve. Why? Because a larger percentage of his overall icetime was coming against easier opponents in more favorable deployments. He was still drawing the tough work, but he was able, for that one season, to masque it with some productive easier work.

Basically, all signs point to Risto in the role of top line defender being a bad usage for him if you want him to be productive. He needs more favorable ice time against weaker competition.

Is there a single poster here that doesn't agree with the bolded?

The whole (ok, vast majority) of the discussion on whether to keep or trade him boils down to whether he can be a productive 3/4 when given that usage or whether he's simply a 5 / borderline 4 on a good day.

The Sabres NEED a 4 to complement Dahlin, Montour, & McCabe.  If not Ristolainen, it has to be somebody else.  (Well, thanks for that sentence, Captain Obvious.). He's never truly been given the opportunity to be in that 3/4 role.  I'd really like to see him at least TRIED in that role before punting him. Because if the Sabres still have him this October, they FINALLY after literally at least 8 (if not 10-12) years enter the season with 4 guys in the top 4 that both should belong there and aren't expected to be injured 60 games.  And Phaneuf being moveable indicates that Risto will be too even after this summer if Kreuger can't get him where we need him to be.

If Risto goes, really want to see Trouba in via a separate trade.

[darksabre]

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Pilut has 1 goal and six points in his NHL career.

Risto is something like the 20th highest scoring defenceman in the entire NHL over the past 4 years.

I wish Risto used his teammates better offensively, but I don’t understand why his production basically gets ignored by so many people.

 

His offensive production is certainly consistent, but the problem is whether or not it matters if he's giving up so much defensively.

He actually had his best seasons under Bylsma's system that made his Corsi numbers worse because it allowed a higher volume of low risk shots.

Risto appears to be more productive when you ask him to dilute the quality of opportunities against rather than when you ask him to reduce the number of opportunities against.

[TrueBlueGED]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Pilut has 1 goal and six points in his NHL career.

Risto is something like the 20th highest scoring defenceman in the entire NHL over the past 4 years.

I wish Risto used his teammates better offensively, but I don’t understand why his production basically gets ignored by so many people.

 

It doesn't get ignored, it's just that total points by a defensemen is a tough stat to evaluate (special teams time, total ice time, etc.). Also, most Risto defenders don't point to his offense as what he brings...they'll say he handles the tough minutes, protects the front of the net, etc etc etc.

There were 100 defensemen in 2018-19 with at least 1000 minutes played at even strength. Of those 100, Risto ranks 41st in points/60 minutes. Deconstructing that a little bit, he's 63rd in goals/60, 36th in primary assists/60, and 31st in secondary assists/60. Obviously, a couple assists or a goal off of a buttocks will skew these things, so I'd be careful with any kind of what-if anlaysis getting too specific. I think the picture as a whole says he produces even strength points at the rate of a #2 defenseman. 

Of course, the absolute value of this offense needs to be balanced against his defensive liabilities, which are pretty significant. I don't have time to do a full defensive breakdown of his stats, but my read on Risto is ultimately the following: I think he's best suited in a #4/5 role with power play time on a good team. Hide him as best you can defensively and let him score some points. Particularly since we have Dahlin to give the bulk of the PP work to, I don't think that's worth $5.4M AND I think you can probably find a GM who thinks like you (and others) that he's more valuable than this assessment, making for a nice trade piece. I defended Risto for a long time and believed he would develop, but at this point in his career I have accepted he's never going to be a top-pair Dman  or the best Dman on the #2 pairing for a team with serious hopes of contending on the regular.

[darksabre]

30 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I remember a play where Risto went up against two players on the endboards, the puck bounced out weirdly to a wide open man in front of our net (so that's three opposing players against Risto) and the ensuing goal was seen as his fault. 

I think he is better than the current stats and their interpretation show, and I would love to see his game in the playoffs.

 

I don't know, people wanted to see Kane in the playoffs and he was a wet fart.

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

What does Kruger bring to the table that suggests he can fix Risto's game?     Housley was supposed to be the guy to fix the D, and we all know how that turned out.   

Kruger brings positivity and leadership, which is great, but I don't see how that will translate to a better Risto.

Exactly, but doesn't it fall more heavily onto the shoulders of the assistants who work directly with their specific groups/units? Hence I still do not understand why so many want Smith back. Shouldn't he have been tasked in part with fixing Risto? He didn't, Risto got worse. I think we need some tough veteran assistants who will crack down on a return to fundamentals. Fix those and then they can all play whatever new system Kreuger brings into place. Without better solid fundamentals (especially for the goalies and D) it'll be another year of running around and nobody not knowing where anybody is.

Also, most important of all, set some pairings and try to stick with them. Stop the Housley style D pair juggling. The good teams stick with their pairings and they learn to play together and communicate. We desperately need that, especially from a guy like Risto. 

otherwise ya, trade him, but only for a here and now return (that I don't think we'd get).

[Drunkard]

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

And at that point, do you want to pay him $5.4M? I can find guys who need protection for less money. Moreover, if some GM out there thinks Risto is anything more than what he is, then the return could easily be better than keeping him, completely independent of his contract.

His contract is great. I wish it had 3 or 4 more years of term on it. $5.4 million for a right handed defenseman in his prime that can be consistently be relied on to play 75+ games a season and put up 40+ points of offense on a team that has trouble scoring goals. Plus he doesn't bitch and moan despite the fact that every single coach he's had in Buffalo seems to treat him like he's Shea freaking Weber in his prime when he clearly isn't. Could you find a better defenseman than him? Sure you can, but you'll probably have to pay him close to double what Ristolainen earns right now.