Risto said it's time for him to go?

[Marvin]

11 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

https://buffalonews.com/2019/06/29/buffalo-sabres-nhl-rasmus-ristolainen/

Again, I know — it's probably being discussed in a thread for arguments for an against trading Risto, or will be soon. See my megathread TinyRant™ in the Cozens injury thread.

I assume @Randall Flagg has the trademark for LargeRant, or do you share them both?

[Curt]

CONTINUATION FROM JOKIHARJU-NYLANDER TRADE THREAD

 

I’m definitely  not insistent that he needs to be traded.  However, it seems to me that the likelihood that he is traded is high.  This is based upon rumors that he is being shopped and the fact that the team has brought in 3 NHL quality RD (“replacements”) in the past 6 months.  This is the source of much of the incessant interest and speculation about trading Risto.  He has always had his detractors, but it’s reached a fever pitch because a trade looks to be imminent.

I don’t think it’s very productive or interesting to just go back in forth with “Risto sux, get rid of him”, “No, he is good, the team would miss him” type of discussions.  I would rather see his actual skill set discussed with more nuance than that.  I think we are capable of it as a group.  

Personally, I see Risto as a #4/#5 type of guy at 5 on 5.  He could probably do ok paired with a better player on a 2nd pair, and if you can use him in a somewhat sheltered role, I think the results would be good.  I think that he can be used heavily on both the PP and PK though and do well there.  

He has the offensive skills in the OZone to really help a PP and I think his size, length, and strength can help a PK in front of the net and in the corners.  I think these qualities are his strengths as a player.

I think his weaknesses as a player are mostly when he has the puck on his stick in the defensive and neutral zone.  I think he does a bad job of making passes to move the puck out of the Dzone with possession, too often defaulting to just throwing it off the glass and out.  I also feel like he could take advantage of open ice more often to skate the puck up into the neutral zone and put more pressure on the opponents.

In a nutshell, I see a player who is pretty good at the point once the puck is in the offensive zone and is pretty good at defending with his size low in the Dzone, but who struggles to actually get the puck out of the Dzone and into the Ozone.  He is definitely a player who has uses, but one who also has definite flaws.  Someone who has a place in the NHL but not someone who you should be considering a “core” piece of someone to really build around.

I don’t think Buffalo would miss him much on the PP or 5 on 5, as I feel that other players have been brought in who can mostly replace what he does there.  I think they may miss him on the PK and in certain 5 on 5 matchups where he can really use his physicality.  If there are other GM’s out there who see in Risto someone they want to build around, I think there could be trade possibilities that are good for Buffalo.

Edit: Sorry for the novel, but I think that’s it’s necessary to get a little deeper into things in order to have a real discussion.  Also, I’m going to repost this in the Risto thread, anyone who wants to discuss this in more detail can head over there.

[North Buffalo]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

CONTINUATION FROM JOKIHARJU-NYLANDER TRADE THREAD

 

I’m definitely  not insistent that he needs to be traded.  However, it seems to me that the likelihood that he is traded is high.  This is based upon rumors that he is being shopped and the fact that the team has brought in 3 NHL quality RD (“replacements”) in the past 6 months.  This is the source of much of the incessant interest and speculation about trading Risto.  He has always had his detractors, but it’s reached a fever pitch because a trade looks to be imminent.

I don’t think it’s very productive or interesting to just go back in forth with “Risto sux, get rid of him”, “No, he is good, the team would miss him” type of discussions.  I would rather see his actual skill set discussed with more nuance than that.  I think we are capable of it as a group.  

Personally, I see Risto as a #4/#5 type of guy at 5 on 5.  He could probably do ok paired with a better player on a 2nd pair, and if you can use him in a somewhat sheltered role, I think the results would be good.  I think that he can be used heavily on both the PP and PK though and do well there.  

He has the offensive skills in the OZone to really help a PP and I think his size, length, and strength can help a PK in front of the net and in the corners.  I think these qualities are his strengths as a player.

I think his weaknesses as a player are mostly when he has the puck on his stick in the defensive and neutral zone.  I think he does a bad job of making passes to move the puck out of the Dzone with possession, too often defaulting to just throwing it off the glass and out.  I also feel like he could take advantage of open ice more often to skate the puck up into the neutral zone and put more pressure on the opponents.

In a nutshell, I see a player who is pretty good at the point once the puck is in the offensive zone and is pretty good at defending with his size low in the Dzone, but who struggles to actually get the puck out of the Dzone and into the Ozone.  He is definitely a player who has uses, but one who also has definite flaws.  Someone who has a place in the NHL but not someone who you should be considering a “core” piece of someone to really build around.

I don’t think Buffalo would miss him much on the PP or 5 on 5, as I feel that other players have been brought in who can mostly replace what he does there.  I think they may miss him on the PK and in certain 5 on 5 matchups where he can really use his physicality.  If there are other GM’s out there who see in Risto someone they want to build around, I think there could be trade possibilities that are good for Buffalo.

Edit: Sorry for the novel, but I think that’s it’s necessary to get a little deeper into things in order to have a real discussion.  Also, I’m going to repost this in the Risto thread, anyone who wants to discuss this in more detail can head over there.

I agree with your assessment, my only question is can a new coach fix Risto and get him to effective exit the D zone on his own stick.  Just not sure if that is a mental thing with him or if that is what he has been told to do? If he could and ability wise he knows how to skate with the puck imo..  could he be trained to do it more often?

[Curt]

10 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

I agree with your assessment, my only question is can a new coach fix Risto and get him to effective exit the D zone on his own stick.  Just not sure if that is a mental thing with him or if that is what he has been told to do? If he could and ability wise he knows how to skate with the puck imo..  could he be trained to do it more often?

I don’t know for sure, but I think Housley was supposed to be the guy who could do this.  He was the expert who could get the D straightened out.  Other players on the team did a much better job of zone exits, both passing and skating, so I don’t think it was purely a coaching directive thing.

Edited July 16, 2019 by Curt

[inkman]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

I don’t know for sure, but I think Housley was supposed to be the guy who could do this.  He was the expert who could get the D straightened out.  Other players on the team did a much better job of zone exits, both passing and skating, so I don’t think it was purely a coaching directive thing.

His expertise consisted of throwing the pucks on the ice for 6 all-star defenseman. The hire was dubious from the start. You don't look to the guy who took a bunch of great players had success. You look to the guys who took average guys and made them good.

[Curt]

10 minutes ago, inkman said:

His expertise consisted of throwing the pucks on the ice for 6 all-star defenseman. The hire was dubious from the start. You don't look to the guy who took a bunch of great players had success. You look to the guys who took average guys and made them good.

Agree to an extent, but he was supposed to help the D in Buffalo, and I would say that he does know something about being a transition D, despite his overall failings as an NHL coach.

There exists a space between “Housley is a D whisperer” and “Housley doesn’t know anything at all”.

Edited July 16, 2019 by Curt

[Thorner]

14 minutes ago, Curt said:

Agree to an extent, but he was supposed to help the D in Buffalo, and I would say that he does know something about being a transition D, despite his overall failings as an NHL coach.

There exists a space between “Housley is a D whisperer” and “Housley doesn’t know anything at all”.

And I suspect any coach falling within this space would have similarly failed at making chicken salad out of Risto's chicken nugget. Perhaps there's a guy out there who can, but why take the risk it's Krueger if Risto can be moved for a valuable return, right now. 

[Tondas]

On 7/16/2019 at 5:41 PM, North Buffalo said:

I agree with your assessment, my only question is can a new coach fix Risto and get him to effective exit the D zone on his own stick.  Just not sure if that is a mental thing with him or if that is what he has been told to do? If he could and ability wise he knows how to skate with the puck imo..  could he be trained to do it more often?

My concern with Risto always has been his inability to effectively use his defensive partner.  Watch Dahlin at 18 years old.  He uses his defensive partner perfectly to get him out of trouble, get him some ice to skate, etc.  Risto has been playing hockey for 20 years and still can't do this.  It's Defense 101.  I can remember Mike Robitaille saying that your defense partner and you work as a hinge.  Mike was taught that 50 years ago.  Risto would rather try to muscle it out or simply ring it around the boards.  Those behaviors do not lead to fast, effective, first pass break outs.   I don't think anyone can develop Risto's game further since his biggest weakness is between his ears.  He is example 1 of non-Hockey IQ.

I don't think trading Risto will backfire like ROR.  We need a top six (preferable a 2C).  Package Risto with something else to get it.  The Sabres will not regret it.

Edited July 21, 2019 by Tondas

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, Tondas said:

.

I don't think trading Risto will backfire like ROR.  We need a top six (preferable a 2C).  Package Risto with something else to get it.  The Sabres will not regret it.

Risto will not backfire if we get an equivalent forward in return.

If Risto is valued like Colin Miller or Olli Maatta then it would be a mistake to trade him.

If Risto is valued at the same level of guys like JT Miller, Tyson Barrie, mIkael Grandlund, kEvin Hayes, Brandon Montour, Jake Muzzin, Max Pacioretty, that’s good value in my estimation. But if he gets the same kind of futures in return it will still not be a good trade.

We need to get real players.

 

Hockey trades just don’t happen very often though.

I think the best we can hope for is something modelled off last year’s Dougie Hamilton trade: if Hamilton, Fox and Ferland can get Lindholm and Hanifan, could, say, Risto, Jokiharju and Sheary net us Rakell and Comtois? Kyle Connor?

Or can we do a three way where trade Risto for futures, then flip those futures for a 2C?

I’d kill to get my hands on Botterill’s phone.

[dudacek]

Here’s something no on seems to mention when they talk about Risto dragging his partner’s down:

Isn’t it generally accepted that Risto gets overloaded with the toughest minutes on the team? And wouldn’t that mean that ever player that gets partnered with Risto is being moved into tougher situations? Wouldn't it therefore stand to reason that their numbers would go down after the move?

Or is that all accounted for by the fancystats guys?

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Here’s something no on seems to mention when they talk about Risto dragging his partner’s down:

Isn’t it generally accepted that Risto gets overloaded with the toughest minutes on the team? And wouldn’t that mean that ever player that gets partnered with Risto is being moved into tougher situations? Wouldn't it therefore stand to reason that their numbers would go down after the move?

Or is that all accounted for by the fancystats guys?

It's all bunk.   Good defenseman play tough minutes and put up good stats, they don't need apologists.

[Zamboni]

Seeing the replies, I have gathered...

One could  just say Risto sucks and choose not to consider the full, logical, even tempered reasons as to why and how. 

One could be narrow minded and just say it has all to do with his massive minutes he eats up, the line mates he has or the IQ he possesses.

Or one may want to consider it may be a bit of everything and not just one or two things ... ?‍♂️

i think Risto is a victim of his environment as well as the main reason for his current circumstance. It’s a mix of many things with Risto IMO. Some within his control, Some beyond his control. 

I’m not pointing out any one fan in particular. So I hope I don’t hurt anyone’s feelings by stating an observation and my opinion.

[Tondas]

Maybe Risto has just never recovered from being choked out by John Scott in his rookie year.

[TrueBlueGED]

On 7/18/2019 at 5:40 PM, dudacek said:

Here’s something no on seems to mention when they talk about Risto dragging his partner’s down:

Isn’t it generally accepted that Risto gets overloaded with the toughest minutes on the team? And wouldn’t that mean that ever player that gets partnered with Risto is being moved into tougher situations? Wouldn't it therefore stand to reason that their numbers would go down after the move?

Or is that all accounted for by the fancystats guys?

The regression models incorporate this stuff, but the plain corsi etc. don't. That said, I feel the need to emphasize, the impact of quality of competition on shot metrics is grossly overstated by most. There is some effect, but hockey is fluid and everyone plays everyone, so the difference in how often Risto versus Bogo line up against the top lines isn't that large. This same work generally shows that quality of teammates is significant on individual performance, quite a bit more so than quality of competition. So yea, the Dmen who skate with Risto face tougher matchups, but if Risto was the guy many seem to think he is, that should matter more than who the other team puts on the ice. 

[Kruppstahl]

On 7/16/2019 at 7:36 PM, Tondas said:

My concern with Risto always has been his inability to effectively use his defensive partner.  Watch Dahlin at 18 years old.  He uses his defensive partner perfectly to get him out of trouble, get him some ice to skate, etc.  Risto has been playing hockey for 20 years and still can do this.  It's Defense 101.  I can remember Mike Robitaille saying that your defense partner and you work as a hinge.  Mike was taught that 50 years ago.  Risto would rather try to muscle it out or simply ring it around the boards.  Those behaviors do not lead to fast, effective, first pass break outs.   I don't think anyone can develop Risto's game further since his biggest weakness is between his ears.  He is example 1 of non-Hockey IQ.

I don't think trading Risto will backfire like ROR.  We need a top six (preferable a 2C).  Package Risto with something else to get it.  The Sabres will not regret it.

Yes, the hinge!  The idea being that not only should the 2 D-men work together, and they should not only be on separate sides of the ice, but also one in front of the other.  That's the hinge.  If I'm behind you and the puck goes over to you, I should then get ahead of you, or if the puck comes toward your side, I need to get back behind you.  One forward, one back at all times if possible. 

That's an old hockey piece of conventional wisdom.  Don Cherry has talked about "the hinge" on more than one Coach's Corner over the years.

I agree Risto's hockey IQ is very low and it's not going to change.  He turned out to be a real disappointment, along with "Big Z" Zadorov.   Those are 2 big guys with a nasty streak in them, and they should be worth their weight in gold.

As it turned out, both have a hockey IQ below room temperature.

Imagine if they were both really solid D-men and Big Z was still in Buffalo.  Our team would be a lot better than it is.

 

 

 

[Radar]

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

The regression models incorporate this stuff, but the plain corsi etc. don't. That said, I feel the need to emphasize, the impact of quality of competition on shot metrics is grossly overstated by most. There is some effect, but hockey is fluid and everyone plays everyone, so the difference in how often Risto versus Bogo line up against the top lines isn't that large. This same work generally shows that quality of teammates is significant on individual performance, quite a bit more so than quality of competition. So yea, the Dmen who skate with Risto face tougher matchups, but if Risto was the guy many seem to think he is, that should matter more than who the other team puts on the ice. 

But wouldn't this rationale also suggest Risto' s performance would be effected by his defensive partners?  Rather than his being expected to make his partner better? Seems that argument could be argued both ways.

[Tondas]

14 hours ago, Radar said:

But wouldn't this rationale also suggest Risto' s performance would be effected by his defensive partners?  Rather than his being expected to make his partner better? Seems that argument could be argued both ways.

His defensive partners are there for him, he fails to utilize them.  He confuses his partners by not reversing when he should, not playing cross ice "catch" when he should, etc.  He has tunnel vision and even the best defensive partner he's paired with can't change that.

Edited July 21, 2019 by Tondas

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Radar said:

But wouldn't this rationale also suggest Risto' s performance would be effected by his defensive partners?  Rather than his being expected to make his partner better? Seems that argument could be argued both ways.

If Risto was significantly better than his partner, you would expect that it would work both ways.  Risto’s performance would suffer and his partner’s performance would be elevated.

[Thorner]

18 hours ago, Zamboni said:

Seeing the replies, I have gathered...

One could  just say Risto sucks and choose not to consider the full, logical, even tempered reasons as to why and how. 

One could be narrow minded and just say it has all to do with his massive minutes he eats up, the line mates he has or the IQ he possesses.

Or one may want to consider it may be a bit of everything and not just one or two things ... ?‍♂️

i think Risto is a victim of his environment as well as the main reason for his current circumstance. It’s a mix of many things with Risto IMO. Some within his control, Some beyond his control. 

I’m not pointing out any one fan in particular. So I hope I don’t hurt anyone’s feelings by stating an observation and my opinion.

“I don't wanna be a product of my environment; I want my environment to be a product of me.” - Frank Costello, The Departed. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

The Sabres are going to have to move out about $3-4 mill in cap before dealing Risto to make a deal realistically possible.

The Sabres once Erod, McCabe and Ullmark are signed will be at a cap cost of about 83.25 mill for 13 forwards, 9 D and 2 G.  That is before Lazar, Olofsson,Thomson, Smith or Jokiharju compete for roster spots.  

Let’s assume Risto gets traded for a viable 2C.  Most of the teams who look like candidates for Risto have cap issues of their own and while a hockey trade with similar caps who would ideal, it maybe in Jbot’s interest to take an additional salary to help maximize the return for Risto.  Also a simply hockey deal would actually force us to move on from a minimum of one forward.  I think the ultimate deal could be Risto plus a depth forward for a 2C and 2 warm bodies.  We’d send out about 7 mill in cap and take back 9 or 10.

We have plenty of guys we could trade or demote to create roster spots and cap room to accommodate such a deal. Forwards Erod, Sheary, Sobotka, Girgensons, Larsson, and Wilson are all expendable in the right deal. Defenders Scandella, Nelson and Hunwick are also expendable.  

My choice would be to move on from Scandella even if we have to eat 1 mill in cap for he season.  Buying out Sobotka clear $2 mill in cap vs just $1mill sending him down.  

If Jbot can move on from Scandella he could then afford to trade Risto and a forward for a 2C, a depth LHD and something else. 

[#freejame]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Sabres are going to have to move out about $3-4 mill in cap before dealing Risto to make a deal realistically possible.

The Sabres once Erod, McCabe and Ullmark are signed will be at a cap cost of about 83.25 mill for 13 forwards, 9 D and 2 G.  That is before Lazar, Olofsson,Thomson, Smith or Jokiharju compete for roster spots.  

Let’s assume Risto gets traded for a viable 2C.  Most of the teams who look like candidates for Risto have cap issues of their own and while a hockey trade with similar caps who would ideal, it maybe in Jbot’s interest to take an additional salary to help maximize the return for Risto.  Also a simply hockey deal would actually force us to move on from a minimum of one forward.  I think the ultimate deal could be Risto plus a depth forward for a 2C and 2 warm bodies.  We’d send out about 7 mill in cap and take back 9 or 10.

We have plenty of guys we could trade or demote to create roster spots and cap room to accommodate such a deal. Forwards Erod, Sheary, Sobotka, Girgensons, Larsson, and Wilson are all expendable in the right deal. Defenders Scandella, Nelson and Hunwick are also expendable.  

My choice would be to move on from Scandella even if we have to eat 1 mill in cap for he season.  Buying out Sobotka clear $2 mill in cap vs just $1mill sending him down.  

If Jbot can move on from Scandella he could then afford to trade Risto and a forward for a 2C, a depth LHD and something else. 

Genuinely asking—if jbott was going to buy-out Vlad why wouldn’t he have done it yet?

[freester]

Botteril is not going to buy anyone out. He doesn’t believe in it. Also no one is giving us a 2 C for Ristolainen and garbage. 

[Tondas]

14 minutes ago, freester said:

Botteril is not going to buy anyone out. He doesn’t believe in it. Also no one is giving us a 2 C for Ristolainen and garbage. 

JBOT said as much which would concern me if I were Pegula.  No GM should be absolutely close-minded to any tool available to him (i.e. buy-outs, offer sheets, trading for bad contracts if it makes sense).  Why give other GMs an MO into how he operates?  It's like telling your poker buddies you'll never up the bet unless you have at least 2 pair.

[TrueBlueGED]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Sabres are going to have to move out about $3-4 mill in cap before dealing Risto to make a deal realistically possible.

The Sabres once Erod, McCabe and Ullmark are signed will be at a cap cost of about 83.25 mill for 13 forwards, 9 D and 2 G.  That is before Lazar, Olofsson,Thomson, Smith or Jokiharju compete for roster spots.  

Let’s assume Risto gets traded for a viable 2C.  Most of the teams who look like candidates for Risto have cap issues of their own and while a hockey trade with similar caps who would ideal, it maybe in Jbot’s interest to take an additional salary to help maximize the return for Risto.  Also a simply hockey deal would actually force us to move on from a minimum of one forward.  I think the ultimate deal could be Risto plus a depth forward for a 2C and 2 warm bodies.  We’d send out about 7 mill in cap and take back 9 or 10.

We have plenty of guys we could trade or demote to create roster spots and cap room to accommodate such a deal. Forwards Erod, Sheary, Sobotka, Girgensons, Larsson, and Wilson are all expendable in the right deal. Defenders Scandella, Nelson and Hunwick are also expendable.  

My choice would be to move on from Scandella even if we have to eat 1 mill in cap for he season.  Buying out Sobotka clear $2 mill in cap vs just $1mill sending him down.  

If Jbot can move on from Scandella he could then afford to trade Risto and a forward for a 2C, a depth LHD and something else. 

This simply isn't true. Stop making it seem like money-in-money-out trades are impossibly rare. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, #freejame said:

Genuinely asking—if jbott was going to buy-out Vlad why wouldn’t he have done it yet?

My guess is he didn't plan to do it because it's generally better to run out the clock so to speak.  However if the awards for Ullmark, McCabe and Erod come in higher then expected, he may have to do it get cap compliant without losing an asset he'd prefer to keep.  The CBA allows for a 2nd buyout period for 3 days following the last arbitration hearing.