Risto said it's time for him to go?

[matter2003]

The hype with Risto and the stats and advanced metrics just seriously disagree with each other. Risto is a terrible possession driver, and always has been.  The team gets badly outshot with him on the ice versus him off the ice. His Corsi this year is 47.5% which is 3% above his career average of 44.5%, and his relative Corsi is -2.9% meaning the team is better at chances for versus chances against when he is NOT on the ice. He is a -39 this year and -141 for his career.  He also seems to have these mental lapses a few times a game where he is just standing around while his player gets great opportunities right by the net...then he of course goes and shoves the guy in the face or gets physical...how about you do that PRIOR to him getting a great shot or scoring?? You know, actually prevent the chance in the first place?? What makes it even worse is that Risto's Expected +/- is -8.5, meaning he is far far underperforming what a "league average" player would be doing given his usage and opponent chances.

The narrative is that he is going to be/is a 1st line pairing defenseman that eats minutes.  Well he is a first line pairing defenseman that eats minutes but the results are terrible when he is out there. In comparison, Dahlin as a rookie is only -7 and has a Corsi of 52.5%,  and a relative Cosi of 5.1% which means the Sabres generate more chances when he is on the ice than they give up, and the relative Corsi means they generate 5.2% better at this when he is on the ice versus when he is of the ice.

 

Surprisingly Alexander Nylander is leading all Sabres in  relative Corsi at 7.9%...I know its a small sample size but that is a very promising start...the guy helps the Sabres generate far more chances when he is on the ice than when he is not.  Montour is 2nd at 6.6% and then Dahlin is 3rd at 5.1%.

What I find amusing is the defensemen the Sabres like(d) sitting are the ones who help with the chances for/chances against(relative Corsi)...Tennyson, Beaulieu, Nelson, Pilut...

The only D worse than Risto in this category are Guhle(-4.9%), Scandella(-5.3%) and Hunwick(-5.4%). Only Scandella is a regular player on the D of these 3.  

Even worse is that Housley loves playing Sobotka and he is the worst Relative Corsi(besides Remi Elie who is a bit player at best and is off the team now) on the team, meaning the Sabres get outchanced worse when he is on the ice than any other player(-6.6%), meaning when Housley puts him on the ice he is basically TERRIBLE at doing what he is supposed to be doing...namely limiting scoring chances by the other team.

 

Housley's coaching decisions and usage of players is sometimes mind numbing....

Either way JBots should look into dumping Risto who soe team is going to love his upside potential of being a regular 40 point guy who can play big minutes and I'm sure they will believe they can "fix" his defensive problems...well, let them try it and get us a top 6 forward for him...he is still relatively young and will have value considering he is a good contract.

Edited March 21, 2019 by matter2003

[Doohicksie]

31 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

The narrative is that he is going to be/is a 1st line pairing defenseman that eats minutes. 

No, the narrative has been that due to lack of anyone better, he's had to serve in that role for most of his career.  The narrative has since morphed into that maybe he will improve when he starts seeing fewer minutes per game and fills a second pairing role.  So far we haven't seen that.

[IKnowPhysics]

Doesn't factor the exorbitant QoC he's been saddled with.

[That Aud Smell]

Risto is big, strong, nasty, and can shoot the puck very hard. And he was physically pro ready at a young age. He is also dumb as a box of rocks.

In point of fact, it's gotta be more than that. Ray Borque was said to be quite a cement head. But on the ice, he was a bright bulb, a sharp knife.

Risto's sample size is plenty big. He has a failing grade in hockey IQ. Bottom 10% in all of pro hockey, I'd wager. Not just the NHL.

As much as anything, this reflects poorly on Kevin Dineen (sp), who was frickin' in love with the guy. The BB&G video leaves no doubt on the subject: 

 

[JJFIVEOH]

Hockey IQ or not. He's a top D-man. People might not like Risto and Bogo, but they are not bottom pairing D-men. If you need to work on your defense, you focus on replacing your bad ones. If you replace your good ones with good ones, you're right back where you started.

[GASabresIUFAN]

19 minutes ago, JJFIVEOH said:

Hockey IQ or not. He's a top D-man. People might not like Risto and Bogo, but they are not bottom pairing D-men. If you need to work on your defense, you focus on replacing your bad ones. If you replace your good ones with good ones, you're right back where you started.

Bogo is a bottom pair D.  He adds little offense, is mistake prone with the puck and often is slow to make the decisions with the puck.  Go watch the Feb 1st and Feb 5th games if you want video evidence of how bad Bogo can be.  

Risto is a 2nd pairing D who needs a very good defensive partner to thrive in the NHL. He needs someone who can cover up for him as he freelances.  McCabe is the closest we have to such a player.  We are better off moving Risto to get the 2nd line C we need, now that we have Montour as a replacement.  

[JJFIVEOH]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Bogo is a bottom pair D.  He adds little offense, is mistake prone with the puck and often is slow to make the decisions with the puck.  Go watch the Feb 1st and Feb 5th games if you want video evidence of how bad Bogo can be.  

Risto is a 2nd pairing D who needs a very good defensive partner to thrive in the NHL. He needs someone who can cover up for him as he freelances.  McCabe is the closest we have to such a player.  We are better off moving Risto to get the 2nd line C we need, now that we have Montour as a replacement.  

I don't think you're giving Bogo and Risto enough credit. And at this point, you might be giving Montour too much. I haven't seen enough from him to convince me he is a top D-man. Granted he just got here.

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, JJFIVEOH said:

I don't think you're giving Bogo and Risto enough credit. And at this point, you might be giving Montour too much. I haven't seen enough from him to convince me he is a top D-man. Granted he just got here.

I’m over giving Bogo and Risto the benefit of the doubt.  In Carolina, Risto and Bogo were paired together and as soon as I saw them on the ice together I looked at my wife and said we are about to get hemmed in our zone and Carolina will score.  About 30 seconds later it came to pass.  

Neither guys really uses their size to their advantage.  Both are very slow to move the puck, allowing the forechecker to get in on them. Both also have a terrible habit of losing their man around the net as the follow the puck like 5 year olds. 

I love Risto’s offensive game, he just needs a smarter defensively aware partner to make up his short comings, like a Tallinder did for Myers early in his career.   Bogo needs to be on the 3rd pair and play against weaker matchups.  He is yet to a Gorges level of bad, but give him a year or two and he’ll be there.

The truth is we are a terrible defensive team.  Some of this is on PH because the system is based on quick movement of the puck in our zone, but most of the blame lies with Jbot and the players.  Jbot for keeping and acquiring players who can’t play the style he wants and on the players who found success playing PH’s way early in the season and the regressed and went back to their old style of poor play.

Edited March 21, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[Zamboni]

I don’t think Risto is a #1 or #2 on a well balanced deep team. Ideally you put him on the 2nd D unit with 18-20 mins a night and I bet he looks way way better. He’s been misused for years. It’s a shame really.

[SwampD]

I'd love to see him in the playoffs.

Also, if his numbers are as bad as everyone says, how is the return going to be a 2C?

[Ross Rhea]

3 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I'd love to see him in the playoffs.

Also, if his numbers are as bad as everyone says, how is the return going to be a 2C?

I know right, also show me a GM who wouldn't want him on their team. The top team in the league was very very interested and wanted him, but yeah here in Buffalo the armchairs have it all figured out and Risto is unworthy of being a Sabre because he is just horrible, yet the love affair with ERod is, well, It's comical to say the least.

[PalmTreeMafia]

In many ways, Risto epitomizes this latest and absolutely worst era in Buffalo Sabres history. He's been around for 6 seasons now. He has the mind-boggling worst plus/minus stat in the NHL since 2013 and is well on pace to blow by Bob Stewart's career-worst -260. He's too stupid to tie his own shoelaces (let alone master Housley's defense), so he never learns from his mistakes and never progresses.

I've reached the point where I'm tired of defending this ignoramus. People here want to mention all of his good attributes. Great! Please let the other 30 NHL teams know about them so that the Sabres can maximize the return in the trade.

Edited March 21, 2019 by Marchand'sNose

[breese866]

He does seem to be extremely clueless at times as to opposing players standing right in front of the net unattended.  

[freester]

I don't claim to understand advanced stats, but I don't think they are the end all be all.  Are advanced stats reliable?  Do they show that Karlson was a great defensemen on a terrible Senators team?    Are there Norris nominees with terrible advanced stats?  Will Risto's advanced stats suddenly improve if traded to  Tampa if he is paired with a solid second pair defensemen and he plays 17 minutes a game?

[matter2003]

2 hours ago, JJFIVEOH said:

Hockey IQ or not. He's a top D-man. People might not like Risto and Bogo, but they are not bottom pairing D-men. If you need to work on your defense, you focus on replacing your bad ones. If you replace your good ones with good ones, you're right back where you started.

Based on what?  All metrics indicate he is a 2nd-pairing defenseman.

1 hour ago, JJFIVEOH said:

I don't think you're giving Bogo and Risto enough credit. And at this point, you might be giving Montour too much. I haven't seen enough from him to convince me he is a top D-man. Granted he just got here.

Credit for what? Allowing the other teams to badly outshoot us when they are on the ice? Risto is much worse than Bogo in this category.

[matter2003]

3 minutes ago, freester said:

I don't claim to understand advanced stats, but I don't think they are the end all be all.  Are advanced stats reliable?  Do they show that Karlson was a great defensemen on a terrible Senators team?    Are there Norris nominees with terrible advanced stats?  Will Risto's advanced stats suddenly improve if traded to  Tampa if he is paired with a solid second pair defensemen and he plays 17 minutes a game?

Actually, yes. Yes they do:

 

[freester]

11 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Actually, yes. Yes they do:

 

What does this show for us unenlightened in the metrics?

[matter2003]

Just now, freester said:

What does this show for us unenlightened in the metrics?

Corsi = Shots + Blocks + Misses

CF = Corsi For(the amount of Shots + Blocks + Misses his team had when he was on the ice on the opposing team)

CA = Corsi Against(the amount of Shots+Blocks+Misses his team had against when he was on the ice)

CF% = CF/(CF+CA) * 100.  Above 50% is good..it means your team was controlling the puck more than half the time when this player was on the ice

CF% Rel = Relative Corsi...how good his CF% was versus the other players on his team...the more positive this number, the more he was better than other players on the team...the more negative this number, the more he was worse.

 

For comparison, here is Risto's:

 

 

[Ross Rhea]

Interesting there is the huge disparity between Ristos and EK offense and defensive zone starts. Seems the one year where their zone starts were close their other numbers were close. Wonder what EK corsi would be if he had d zone starts comparative to Ristos and vice versa.

[Torpedo Forecheck]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

Corsi = Shots + Blocks + Misses

CF = Corsi For(the amount of Shots + Blocks + Misses his team had when he was on the ice on the opposing team)

CA = Corsi Against(the amount of Shots+Blocks+Misses his team had against when he was on the ice)

CF% = CF/(CF+CA) * 100.  Above 50% is good..it means your team was controlling the puck more than half the time when this player was on the ice

CF% Rel = Relative Corsi...how good his CF% was versus the other players on his team...the more positive this number, the more he was better than other players on the team...the more negative this number, the more he was worse.

 

For comparison, here is Risto's:

 

 

Does this control for the teammates that are on the ice with you?

[matter2003]

10 minutes ago, Torpedo Forecheck said:

Does this control for the teammates that are on the ice with you?

I'm not sure...my guess is no.

[JJFIVEOH]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Based on what?  All metrics indicate he is a 2nd-pairing defenseman.

Credit for what? Allowing the other teams to badly outshoot us when they are on the ice? Risto is much worse than Bogo in this category.

Do metrics take into account he plays 75 minutes a game against every team's top line, and his entire career has been on the worst offense in the entire league, hence the poor +/- rating?

 

[Brawndo]

19 minutes ago, JJFIVEOH said:

Do metrics take into account he plays 75 minutes a game against every team's top line, and his entire career has been on the worst offense in the entire league, hence the poor +/- rating?

 

They do demonstrate that the Sabres Top Line of Eichel-Skinner and Reinhart has worse metrics when paired with Risto. 

Dahlin’s are also worse when paired with Risto. 

Pilut actually improves his metrics. 

And for those asking why any GM would trade for Risto, not all front office’s put as much weight on analytics as others. 

In Tampa’s Case BriseBois really hasn’t set a pattern as to what types of players he wants to add

[#freejame]

14 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

They do demonstrate that the Sabres Top Line of Eichel-Skinner and Reinhart has worse metrics when paired with Risto. 

Dahlin’s are also worse when paired with Risto. 

Pilut actually improves his metrics. 

And for those asking why any GM would trade for Risto, not all front office’s put as much weight on analytics as others. 

In Tampa’s Case BriseBois really hasn’t set a pattern as to what types of players he wants to add

Does playing with Dahlin improve Risto’s metrics? I would think that Dahlin would be facing greater competition playing with Risto, hence the worse metrics. 

Likewise, does the top line take more defensive zones starts with Risto on the ice than without him?

I’m still not sure where I stand on Risto. I think he suffers from poor usage, but someone has to log those minutes and he’s the best suited for it. I would like to see him play with more support before having to decide, but I don’t think that’s a luxury that I will be getting.

[Kruppstahl]

Risto is terrible.  

Montour isn't much better and comes from the same sort of mold.

If indeed there is solid trade value for Risto, I'd like to see him moved this off-season as well.

However, that move, in isolation, will do very little to improve things. But it it could be part of a number of moves that start to move the needle around here.  Firing Housley would be another; firing Botterill would be another.  Turning over half the lineup would be another.