Botterill's Drafting in Regards to Size and Physicality

[Thorner]

Berglund averaged 37 points a season. So, if being a better skater is leading to ~ 18-23 more points per season on average, then ok. 

And I'd say 55-60 points is more than reasonable as a projection, realistically as a floor. 

I'd be pretty disappointed if Cozens career high was 52 points, which was Berglund's. 

Edited June 26, 2019 by Thorny

[pi2000]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Berglund averaged 37 points a season. So, if being a better skater is leading to ~ 18-23 more points per season on average, then ok. 

Sure, I see Cozens as a 40-50pt guy.    Depends largely if he gets time on the PP,  I just don't think he has the skill level or IQ to find PP minutes for himself.   5-on-5 I see him as a responsible 3C who can contribute at both ends of the ice.... just won't put up big numbers like Zegras has the potential to.

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

Sure, I see Cozens as a 40-50pt guy.    Depends largely if he gets time on the PP,  I just don't think he has the skill level or IQ to find PP minutes for himself.   5-on-5 I see him as a responsible 3C who can contribute at both ends of the ice.... just won't put up big numbers like Zegras has the potential to.

Comes down to projection then. I see 40-50 below Cozens' likely floor, let alone his ceiling. 

[Randall Flagg]

44 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Sure, I see Cozens as a 40-50pt guy.    Depends largely if he gets time on the PP,  I just don't think he has the skill level or IQ to find PP minutes for himself.   5-on-5 I see him as a responsible 3C who can contribute at both ends of the ice.... just won't put up big numbers like Zegras has the potential to.

This was my thought when I saw his power play highlights in those videos. Which is hardly thorough analysis, but man it took him a long time to stickhandle and make his pivots and passes. That would get eaten alive on the boards by NHL PKers.

He needs to vastly improve his puck control/stickhandling. If he can, I think his shot will naturally develop enough that he can be a high-end goal scoring center. He'll look like Jeff Carter 

Edited June 26, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

Ultimately I see him as a faster, slighty better skating Patrick Berglund.     He's not a high end skill guy.   His hockey IQ isn't next level.  He's not going to wow you with his hands. However, he seems like he works hard, has A+ character and plays a 200ft game.     

TBH, I liked Zegras better as a prospect, I see lot's of Jason Spezza in him... but maybe a guy like Cozens is more of what Buffalo needs in their lineup?    Just tough to pass on a higher skilled player.   We'll see how they develop.   

He is more skilled than Berglund.

I agree with the Carter upside and I also think he could end up like Chris Kreider.

And either would look good on a 2nd line with Reinhart and a fully developed Mittelstadt in a few years.

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

He is more skilled than Berglund.

I agree with the Carter upside and I also think he could end up like Chris Kreider.

And either would look good on a 2nd line with Reinhart and a fully developed Mittelstadt in a few years.

That could work. Ideally though I see Cozens and Mittelstadt in a 2C (and 3C) split with Cozens getting the tougher matchups. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

It'll always have a negative connotation within my brain. It's just an awkward sounding word. Sports announcers jizz themselves using this word 20 times every game. 

Not to mention having in the Merriam Webster really means nothing, as they sold their souls long ago in the age of stupidity.  The English language used to be a thing, but not for some time.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Comes down to projection then. I see 40-50 below Cozens' likely floor, let alone his ceiling. 

Oh I don’t think that is realistic as a floor.  His floor was would be if his hockey IQ, playmaking and puck handling don’t really improve, making it hard for him to deal with NHL speed.  That would probably limit him to being a 2-way 3rd line C without much PP time, putting up 15-20-35 per season, or something like that.  That’s if he doesn’t improve much at all.

I think a realistic, probable range of outcomes is a 20-30 goal, 45-65 point, 2-way C.  If it’s less that that, we should be pretty disappointed.  If it’s more, we should be jumping for joy.  I’m thinking a Ryan Kesler type of career.

[inkman]

When did half our posters become NHL amateur scouts?  This is getting out of hand. 

[North Buffalo]

21 minutes ago, inkman said:

When did half our posters become NHL amateur scouts?  This is getting out of hand. 

Have you ever read threads on twobillsdrive? Just saying...

[Curt]

26 minutes ago, inkman said:

When did half our posters become NHL amateur scouts?  This is getting out of hand. 

I’m an amateur scout only in the sense that no one would ever pay me to do it professionally!

[...]

Are we back to Cozen's having a questionable hockey IQ?  I can't keep up.

[Carmel Corn]

5 hours ago, Thorny said:

Option 2, easily. Much more valuable position. 

Agreed, 2C is much more important.  Jack can miss games due to injury, etc. and we need center depth that can step up.

[dudacek]

Interesting piece in the Athletic this morning on trends in the draft, focused on comparing this year to 10 years earlier.

“Looking back at the 2009 draft, there were 20 skaters chosen in the first three rounds who have so far failed to appear in an NHL game. It’s a group remarkable for the way it exemplifies the traditional reliance of the NHL on what Cherry calls “big tough Canadian boy(s).”

Of the 20 busts:

• 17 (85 percent) were born in North America. That includes every single zero-game NHLer drafted in the first or second rounds.
• 20 (100 percent) have a listed height of 6-foot or greater.
• The group’s average height was 74.2 inches, which compares to the draft average of 73.5 inches.”

Edited June 27, 2019 by dudacek

[dudacek]

From the same article, posted in regards to Botterill’s resistance to CHL.

“The globalization of hockey has led to the composition of drafted players being vastly different with respect to birth country,” Iyer said. “This past year, more than 40 percent of drafted players were born outside of North America, marking an all-time high.”

In 2008, 52 percent of drafted players came from one of the three major Canadian leagues: the OHL, WHL and QMJHL

The 2019 draft represented a new low point for major junior, which has seen its share of the draft fall every year since 2016.

Edited June 27, 2019 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

More importantly from that piece:

Quote

Iyer’s example, Bergeron, is arguably a victim of the effect suggested by Nandakumar: too much emphasis on draft year, not enough on date of birth. A 6-foot-1 QMJHL defenseman, Bergeron scored 57 points in 65 games this season and then topped the point-per-game mark in a playoff run which ended with a league championship (his team would also go on to win the Memorial Cup).

That production has to be discounted a bit owing to age, but as a September 14 birthday, Bergeron was only barely eligible for the 2018 draft anyway. He is just 10 days older than first-time eligible Lassi Thomson, who went 19th overall.

https://theathletic.com/1049600/2019/06/27/what-we-learned-about-the-future-of-nhl-at-the-2019-draft/

[Thorner]

So copycat drafting, as well. It'll be less easy for Botteril to focus almost solely on non-CHL players once other GMs attempt to do the same thing. 

[Taro T]

22 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So copycat drafting, as well. It'll be less easy for Botteril to focus almost solely on non-CHL players once other GMs attempt to do the same thing. 

Which should leave some serious value in the late rounds out of the CHL for the few GMs that stay "dinosaurs" and don't avoid the CHL.

[Pimlach]

On 6/26/2019 at 2:50 PM, pi2000 said:

Ultimately I see him as a faster, slighty better skating Patrick Berglund.     He's not a high end skill guy.   His hockey IQ isn't next level.  He's not going to wow you with his hands. However, he seems like he works hard, has A+ character and plays a 200ft game.     

TBH, I liked Zegras better as a prospect, I see lot's of Jason Spezza in him... but maybe a guy like Cozens is more of what Buffalo needs in their lineup?    Just tough to pass on a higher skilled player.   We'll see how they develop.   

Wow.  This is like saying he is a reach as a top 7 pick, especially for this draft.   

Edited July 1, 2019 by Pimlach