2019-20 Sabres Prospects

[TrueBlueGED]

4 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Ok, but that’s just opinion. How does Kris Baker define it? How does the NHL define it?

take the guess work and opinion out of it, even if it’s disagreeable. ?‍♂️

I would simply say waiver eligible and less than 1 full season of NHL games played. 

[Curt]

3 hours ago, Derrico said:

Because everyone already knows Dahlin and Mittlestadt.  I’m not interested in where they are in our pecking order.  I want to learn and debate the guys not on the team that are coming.

Fair enough.  I was just giving something of an alternative that sidesteps the issue of “what is a prospect?”.  It can also be a fun exercise.

[Curt]

My 2019 Off-season Top-22 Sabres Prospects - Early Edition

1)Dylan Cozen

2)Victor Olofsson 

3)Lawrence Pilut 

4)Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 

5)Will Borgen

6)Tage Thompson

7)Alex Nylander

8)Rasmus Asplund

9)Oskari Laaksonen 

10)Matej Pekar 

11)Ryan Johnson

12)Mattias Samuelsson

13)CJ Smith

14)Marcus Davidsson

15)Jacob Bryson

16)Jonas Johansson

17)Casey Fitzgerald

18)Aaron Huglen 

19)Miska Kukkonen

20)Erik Portillo

21)Andrew Ogelvie

22)Linus Weissbach

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I would simply say waiver eligible and less than 1 full season of NHL games played. 

If a prospect shuttles between the NHL and AHL over three years and plays 20 NHL games year 1, 30 games year 2 and 40 games year 3, but has yet to stick in the NHL; how is that player still not a prospect?

The NHL says 160 games for prospects signed from 18-20 to be waiver exempt.  That seems like a good place to start.

[TrueBlueGED]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If a prospect shuttles between the NHL and AHL over three years and plays 20 NHL games year 1, 30 games year 2 and 40 games year 3, but has yet to stick in the NHL; how is that player still not a prospect?

The NHL says 160 games for prospects signed from 18-20 to be waiver exempt.  That seems like a good place to start.

Because they're probably not regular NHL material at that point. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Because they're probably not regular NHL material at that point. 

Really?  

[TrueBlueGED]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Really?  

If a player has had 3 AHL seasons (which could potentially be...5 seasons post-draft including juniors?) and hasn't stuck in the NHL after 3 cracks at it, then yea, they're likely no more than a replacement level player. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

If a player has had 3 AHL seasons (which could potentially be...5 seasons post-draft including juniors?) and hasn't stuck in the NHL after 3 cracks at it, then yea, they're likely no more than a replacement level player. 

Are you sure? Campbell played in 3 AHL season with call ups all three years and didn’t full make it until year 4. Same for Ullmark.  An arbitrary 82 game limit for players who develop at different rates and is never linear is a little silly when the NHL uses 160 for waivers and 260 for developmental status in the AHL.  

Edited June 25, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[TrueBlueGED]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Are you sure? Campbell played in 3 AHL season with call ups all three years and didn’t full make it until year 4.

Yes, and he's obviously a huge outlier. You're not going to come up with a definition of prospect that prevents any and all outliers unless you simply say all players not in the NHL are prospects. 

Edit: Sometimes players come from unexpected places (either literally or figuratively in the case of a career timeline) to be regular NHL contributors. I don't think a reasonable definition of prospect needs to seek to include these players. 

Edited June 25, 2019 by TrueBlueGED

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Yes, and he's obviously a huge outlier. You're not going to come up with a definition of prospect that prevents any and all outliers unless you simply say all players not in the NHL are prospects. 

That’s why you use 23 and under, waiver exempt and played part of the prior season in the the AHL or other lesser leagues.  That should cover most situations including outliers like Campbell, Ullmark or Thompson.  Nylander also has received 3 call ups and has yet to stick. 

[TrueBlueGED]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Are you sure? Campbell played in 3 AHL season with call ups all three years and didn’t full make it until year 4. Same for Ullmark.  An arbitrary 82 game limit for players who develop at different rates and is never linear is a little silly when the NHL uses 160 for waivers and 260 for developmental status in the AHL.  

It's not just NHL games though. It's NHL games *and* waiver eligibility that I'm looking at. 

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s why you use 23 and under, waiver exempt and played part of the prior season in the the AHL or other lesser leagues.  That should cover most situations including outliers like Campbell, Ullmark or Thompson.  Nylander also has received 3 call ups and has yet to stick. 

And he has less than 82 games and waiver eligibility, so he's covered by my definition. 

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Yes, and he's obviously a huge outlier. You're not going to come up with a definition of prospect that prevents any and all outliers unless you simply say all players not in the NHL are prospects. 

Edit: Sometimes players come from unexpected places (either literally or figuratively in the case of a career timeline) to be regular NHL contributors. I don't think a reasonable definition of prospect needs to seek to include these players. 

And you're never going to come up with a definition that fully catches them all.  Pretty sure even the Bruins didn't consider Thomas a prospect before the lockout when they gave him his 1st shot when he was 28.  Finally got his 1st extended NHL action at 32.

[Zamboni]

 All this back-and-forth… Thats why you take opinion out of it. And you go by the standard at which has been set. Not opinion. well I think this and I think that and this is what I feel and that’s what I feel. Take opinion out of it. Go by what the NHL has set fourth as what constitutes a rookie. Even if some fans disagree. Too bad IMO.

maybe I’ll make this poll idea I said in a prior message if no one else does it.

[#freejame]

4 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

 All this back-and-forth… Thats why you take opinion out of it. And you go by the standard at which has been set. Not opinion. well I think this and I think that and this is what I feel and that’s what I feel. Take opinion out of it. Go by what the NHL has set fourth as what constitutes a rookie. Even if some fans disagree. Too bad IMO.

maybe I’ll make this poll idea I said in a prior message if no one else does it.

Make the poll! That’s perfect offseason board material. 

[TrueBlueGED]

15 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

 All this back-and-forth… Thats why you take opinion out of it. And you go by the standard at which has been set. Not opinion. well I think this and I think that and this is what I feel and that’s what I feel. Take opinion out of it. Go by what the NHL has set fourth as what constitutes a rookie. Even if some fans disagree. Too bad IMO.

maybe I’ll make this poll idea I said in a prior message if no one else does it.

Back and forth on a message board? The horror!!! ?

[Zamboni]

17 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Back and forth on a message board? The horror!!! ?

That’s not what I meant .. haha 

[Thorner]

On 6/23/2019 at 2:07 PM, Hoss said:

I can do a series of polls to get a consensus on our prospects. Maybe I'll do top 15.

I don't think he was demoted under normal circumstances, though. I think they just wanted to get him playing in the AHL for a bit so he'd be ready for the playoffs.

The fact he was being sent down to play in the AHL playoffs makes him a prospect to me. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

 All this back-and-forth… Thats why you take opinion out of it. And you go by the standard at which has been set. Not opinion. well I think this and I think that and this is what I feel and that’s what I feel. Take opinion out of it. Go by what the NHL has set fourth as what constitutes a rookie. Even if some fans disagree. Too bad IMO.

maybe I’ll make this poll idea I said in a prior message if no one else does it.

NHL ROY candidates can be 26.

 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

 All this back-and-forth… Thats why you take opinion out of it. And you go by the standard at which has been set. Not opinion. well I think this and I think that and this is what I feel and that’s what I feel. Take opinion out of it. Go by what the NHL has set fourth as what constitutes a rookie. Even if some fans disagree. Too bad IMO.

maybe I’ll make this poll idea I said in a prior message if no one else does it.

 

1 hour ago, #freejame said:

Make the poll! That’s perfect offseason board material. 

Hoss has already committed upthread to the poll. I think he’s going to do it after development camp.

I think he was going to use Baker’s standards and is taking care of Thompson in vote, also upthread, that was tied last I saw it.

Hope the discussion on the players is as vigorous as it is on the rules.

[Zamboni]

I think this is good criteria. Judge and include / discard players based on the following only. Do a Sabrespace poll with this as the basis. Take feelings and opinion out of it.

From ..  http://www.hockeysfuture.com/whatmakesaprospect/

A player will be considered a prospect until he meets the following criteria:

If a prospect is a skater (forward, defenseman) and has played in 65 NHL games or more before the completion of the season of his 24th birthday; or, if a goaltender has played in 45 NHL games before the completion of the season of his 24th birthday, that player will be considered graduated to the NHL. Conversely, if a player completes the season of his 24th birthday without passing those milestones, then that player will no longer be considered a prospect by Hockey’s Future, regardless of the player’s status with his NHL club.

An NCAA player who signs his first contract at or above the age of 22 has three years to meet the above criteria (65/45), while those NCAA players that turn pro under the age of 22 will be subjected to the criteria above.

European players who sign their first NHL contract at or above the age of 22 have three seasons from the time they sign that contract to meet the above criteria. Those European players below the age of 22 that have signed a NHL contract will be subjected to the criteria in section one.

Section one is the meat of the criteria as it will govern the majority of players that vie for a NHL roster spot. Sections two and three are simply an acknowledgement that some prospects arrive on the scene a bit later than their peers, thus needing some time past their 24th birthday to develop into an NHL-caliber player.

The graduated list on team pages will consist of players who are considered graduated to the NHL. A skater prospect may sit on the graduated list until he has played 130 games in the NHL. A goalieprospect may sit on the graduated list until he has played 90 games in the NHL.

NOTE: These are general guidelines and should be followed the majority of the time but certain players may still be listed as prospects if circumstances warrant.  Also, for players that are close to either the 65-game (skaters) or 45-game (goaltenders) benchmark but have also clearly "arrived" as NHL players, HF reserves the right to remove these players from consideration as prospects and instead consider these players graduated.

[#freejame]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

Hoss has already committed upthread to the poll. I think he’s going to do it after development camp.

I think he was going to use Baker’s standards and is taking care of Thompson in vote, also upthread, that was tied last I saw it.

Hope the discussion on the players is as vigorous as it is on the rules.

I must have missed Hoss saying that. With all the rules back and forth I more or less started skimming. 

[rakish]

I know you guys are going to use a different method, but this is my list.

This is everyone from 17 to 22, so Olofsson has aged out. This is their rank by their group(F/D) in their year in 2018-2019. I normally rank pipelines by how many 1-20's you have. There are 6 years, times 2 groups, times 20 players = 240, divided by 31, so each team ought to have about 8, Buffalo has 8 without counting UPL, so for me, Buffalo has an average pipeline. Mittlestadt ought to be higher, but he was in the wrong league, as was Thompson, so I didn't bother to chase down Thompson's ranking. Borgan doesn't have much offense to his game, so he's lower in my methodology than he is in reality.

1 Rasmus Dahlin (D) 2918 NHL Buffalo Sabres
2 JACK EICHEL 3749 NHL Buffalo Sabres
6 SAM REINHART 1776 NHL Buffalo Sabres
10 Dylan Cozens (C/RW)*** WHL
11 MARCUS DAVIDSSON 1460 SHL Djurgårdens IF
12 OSKARI LAAKSONEN 1103 Liiga Ilves
17 Filip Cederqvist (LW/RW)*** SuperElit
20 JACOB BRYSON 749 NCAA Providence College
25 Ryan Johnson (D)*** USHL
25 LINUS WEISSBACH NCAA
26 Arttu Ruotsalainen Liiga
28 Linus Cronholm (D) 500 Allsvenskan IK Pantern
39 Mattias Samuelsson (D) 399 NCAA Western Michigan Univ.
42 CASEY FITZGERALD 447 NCAA Boston College
43 ALEXANDER NYLANDER 673 AHL Rochester Americans
58 ALEXANDER NYLANDER 533 NHL Buffalo Sabres
44 Lukas Rousek (C/LW)*** Czech2
89 Lukas Rousek (C/LW)*** Czech
50 WILLIAM BORGEN 383 AHL Rochester Americans
51 BRETT MURRAY 569 USHL Youngstown Phantoms
61 RASMUS ASPLUND 523 AHL Rochester Americans
64 CASEY MITTELSTADT 602 NHL Buffalo Sabres
66 DEVANTE STEPHENS 196 ECHL Cincinnati Cyclones
69 PHILIP NYBERG 156 NCAA Univ. of Connecticut
69 Matej Pekar 458 OHL Barrie Colts
76 AUSTIN OSMANSKI 115 OHL Peterborough Petes
79 Miska Kukkonen (D) 117 Jr. A SM-liiga Tappara U20
81 VOJTECH BUDIK 84 Czech HC Dynamo Pardubice
81 William Worge Kreü (D) 95 SuperElit Linköping HC J20
87 CHRISTOPHER BROWN 383 NCAA Boston College
92 VACLAV KARABACEK 356 Czech2 Motor Ceske Budejovice
104 VASILI GLOTOV 278 ECHL Cincinnati Cyclones
109 ERIC CORNEL 259 AHL Rochester Americans
291 Aaron Huglen (F)*** USHL

 

[tom webster]

13 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Are you sure? Campbell played in 3 AHL season with call ups all three years and didn’t full make it until year 4. Same for Ullmark.  An arbitrary 82 game limit for players who develop at different rates and is never linear is a little silly when the NHL uses 160 for waivers and 260 for developmental status in the AHL.  

For the record, Campbell only played two and a half seasons in AHL and his call ups in years one and two were twelve and eight games,

[Derrico]

Wowzers Rakish.  I would love to know the criteria you use as you’ve been very right on guys in the past.  But having guys like Lukas Rouset and Alex  Nylander way ahead of Mitts is crazy town.  

[North Buffalo]

Just serendipitously caught Cozens on facebook live answering fan questions, shoulder need weight, but his biceps and forearms look big and strong... ripped.  Kid is a big dude