2019-20 Sabres Prospects

[Thorner]

6 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

If Cozens becomes "Point-esque" is  that enough to move JB below TM as worst Sabres GM of all-time?  What if Joki's acceleration to solidify the right  side on the second pairing happens this year?  What about Pekar, UPL, Laaksonen, or Sameulsson breaking through within 12-18 months.   Or Ryan Johnson's development getting back on track.   What combination  of these would elevate TM to worst of all-time?  

The bolded alone would likely do it for me. Murray wasn't a very good GM overall. I liked his overall tendencies more but I don't rank him all that much higher than Botterill. 

Point is a borderline, what, elite player? He seems to be one of the best centres in the game, really. If we get a player like that from that pick, when there WERE other reasonable options on the table, it deserves a major kudos. 

My take is that Cozens is going to be a good NHLer. I try to keep my expectations reasonable though when I can - I credit Botterill already with what seems to be a good selection, but if he becomes Point, it's a foundational selection. 

I'm admittedly far less sold on the likelihood of much of the other stuff you mentioned. 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Right now, when he talks, he exudes young and determined. Soon he'll just be determined. 

 Came to post this. 

I, personally, am going to have to create a paragraph for Botterill positives just for the purpose of mentioning his selection of Cozens, after this kid reveals himself to be The Answer, aren't I?

There are good Botterill moves, and depending on how some guys turn out, there could be quite a few.

IF:

-Cozens becomes a 60+ point 2-way C
-Lukkonen becomes an above average starting goalie
-Jokiharju becomes a stalwart, steady top-4 RD
-Kahun is decent, versatile top-6 RW/LW

[kas23]

I would really like to know who drafted Cozens. I agree JB made the final call, but who really was pushing for Cozens? Was it a consensus or what there an individual gunning for him? And is he still employed by the Sabres? We’ll probably never know, but someone knows. 

[tom webster]

1 hour ago, kas23 said:

I would really like to know who drafted Cozens. I agree JB made the final call, but who really was pushing for Cozens? Was it a consensus or what there an individual gunning for him? And is he still employed by the Sabres? We’ll probably never know, but someone knows. 

Almost every player drafted is some sort of consensus. Most NHL GM’s have no idea who the players are and rely on their scouts. Tim Murray was one of the few GM’s who did any actual scouting.

[Trettioåtta]

3 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Almost every player drafted is some sort of consensus. Most NHL GM’s have no idea who the players are and rely on their scouts. Tim Murray was one of the few GM’s who did any actual scouting.

I think Murray was historically a good talent spotter. And I think he would have been better being Scouting Manager, rather than General Manager

[Weave]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

 Came to post this. 

 

YDIW

You are supposed to jump onto this forum, full of excitement like a 4yr old at 5am on Christmas morning for your find, not read any posts to see if it is already being discussed, and start a new thread to have two places to discuss it.

Right, GA?

[LGR4GM]

14 hours ago, Trettioåtta said:

I think Murray was historically a good talent spotter. And I think he would have been better being Scouting Manager, rather than General Manager

Murray didn't even draft well.

[LGR4GM]

Now that Pronman is done ranking players under 22, we can turn our attention to actual prospects. We rank 23. I fully agree with what they say here because this is the reality of our prospect pool. Tage and Mitts don't honestly make this that much different if they were included. We need to hit on at least 3 players in the 2020 draft especially with our first 2 picks. 

https://hockeyprospecting.com/2020/09/15/team-strength-rankings-21-to-31-sept-2020/

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Now that Pronman is done ranking players under 22, we can turn our attention to actual prospects. We rank 23. I fully agree with what they say here because this is the reality of our prospect pool. Tage and Mitts don't honestly make this that much different if they were included. We need to hit on at least 3 players in the 2020 draft especially with our first 2 picks. 

https://hockeyprospecting.com/2020/09/15/team-strength-rankings-21-to-31-sept-2020/

If they hit on 3 players with their first 2 picks, Kevy will have my full confidence.  😉

[GASabresIUFAN]

FYI https://theathletic.com/2039302/2020/09/09/2020-nhl-organizational-rankings-no-5-buffalo-sabres/

Pronman has us 5th overall in 22 and under

1. Dahlin

2. Cozens

3. Jokiharju

4. Casey Mittelstadt - Still projects him as a "Very good NHL player" 

Quote

 I do think he competes fine and even was on the PK in the AHL. He’s a puzzle for me, but still a player I think will become an NHL scorer, even if his stock is down from his days as a top-10 pick.

5. Tage Thompson - Also "very good NHL player" 

Quote

He combines his skill and good hockey IQ with an elite wrist shot that pro goalies have a very hard time picking up.

6. Ryan Johnson - "Legit NHL player"

7. Oskari Laaksonen - "Legit NHL player"

8. Mattias Samuelsson - "Legit NHL player"

[Thorner]

^No UPL?

[Brawndo]

Scott Wheeler released His Top 50 Drafted Prospects.

 

Cozens who was Number 1 on the last list, dropped to 8th.  I can see Laf and Byfield ahead, but The other five not so much.
 

Recency bias at its finest.

 

Quinn is 48th? 

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Scott Wheeler released His Top 50 Drafted Prospects.

 

Cozens who was Number 1 on the last list, dropped to 8th.  I can see Laf and Byfield ahead, but The other five not so much.
 

Recency bias at its finest.

 

Quinn is 48th? 

See?  This is why we all went so nuts at the pick of Quinn.  The Sabres could've had the 3rd or 4th best prospect but instead landed the 48th!

(Where's the roll eyes emoji when you need it.)

Speaking as somebody that wanted Rossi or Perfetti, there is no way they should be that high nor should Quinn be that low.

[Brawndo]

10 minutes ago, Taro T said:

See?  This is why we all went so nuts at the pick of Quinn.  The Sabres could've had the 3rd or 4th best prospect but instead landed the 48th!

(Where's the roll eyes emoji when you need it.)

Speaking as somebody that wanted Rossi or Perfetti, there is no way they should be that high nor should Quinn be that low.

Nods in agreement with all of this. Rossi was My First Choice. 

[Brawndo]

I think Quinn will be a very good player for the Sabres. The concern is there was better value on the board in Rossi and Perfetti. 

[Curt]

46 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Scott Wheeler released His Top 50 Drafted Prospects.

 

Cozens who was Number 1 on the last list, dropped to 8th.  I can see Laf and Byfield ahead, but The other five not so much.
 

Recency bias at its finest.

Yeah, that makes no GD sense.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

Scott Wheeler released His Top 50 Drafted Prospects.

 

Cozens who was Number 1 on the last list, dropped to 8th.  I can see Laf and Byfield ahead, but The other five not so much.
 

Recency bias at its finest.

 

Quinn is 48th? 

lol that list is rough. 

Just 1 example of why. Drake Betherson at 27. That is a player that is decent and has a good shot of being a middle 6 forward. Compared to a Jarvis or Quinn, 2 guys that will grade out as top 6 if not top line players. 

Dear lord Morgan Frost is ranked below Batherson... lol come on now. Arthur Kaliyev above Jack Quinn is hilarious. Lundell at 16? 

This is list is basically useless unless you just want to know some names of players that are good outside of the NHL. Cozens behind Alex Holtz... lol. 

[Thorner]

I think I'd have Cozens at 3. 

[thewookie1]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

I think I'd have Cozens at 3. 

I might even have him hop Byfield to be honest but only just barely. Mainly based on Byfield's rawness 

[LGR4GM]

 

I honestly don't wonder anymore why the Sabres are bad. They draft like idiots year after year after year after year. They better hope they are right on Quinn because right now, a multitude of ppl say they ***** up. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

While I agree about Rossi, his definition isn't broad enough. Because Mitts and Thompson played over 100 games they aren't considered prospect in his world.  Where would we be with both back on his list?  They should be.  Both are under 23 and not in the NHL.  The 100 games cut off is BS in my humble opinion as each prospect develops differently.  If they had 200 games in the AHL, they still be prospects and that is way more pro experience.  

That said the Sabres have drafted poorly for years.  TM and DR did a terrible job.  We can't fully evaluate JB yet as most of his kids are still developing, but many criticize his over drafting of D; although the prior administrations didn't draft many D at all except 2013.  We have nothing for 2016 so far, Eichel from 2015, and Reinhart and VO from 2014.  That 3 players so far from 3 drafts.  Awful, especially with 2 of the 3 being 2nd overall picks.  Compound with trading of many of the extra picks and why is it surprising that we have so little depth.  Out of TM's 5 2nd rd picks the Sabres don't have a single player. 1 of the 5 are NHL players but of course TM traded him away.  

Also DR failed. In 2010 all we had was Pysyk out of 9 picks. 2011 Armia (also traded before he developed) and that's it from 6 picks.  2012 was a success sort of in that we drafted 4 NHL players, and 3 made a depth impact on the Sabres in McCabe, Girgensons and Ullmark, but none is a star by any stretch of the imagination and we nearly destroyed the 4th player in Grigorenko (TM also trade him away).  2013 was a similar story, 3 players all at the top of the draft, but 2 traded away before they developed and only Risto was kept.

Between poor development, poor drafting and foolish trades, is it really a surprise this team is mired in failure?

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[DarthEbriate]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I honestly don't wonder anymore why the Sabres are bad. They draft like idiots year after year after year after year. They better hope they are right on Quinn because right now, a multitude of ppl say they ***** up. 

The question is if the Bader system includes Dahlin and Jokiharju.

And who'll be laughing all the way to the Space Bank when Cronholm, Worge-Kreu, Kukkonen, and Laaksonen, and Davidsson, Cederqvist, and Rousek all turn in NHL-roster caliber players in 3 years. JBot! That's who.

[Curt]

20 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

The question is if the Bader system includes Dahlin and Jokiharju.

And who'll be laughing all the way to the Space Bank when Cronholm, Worge-Kreu, Kukkonen, and Laaksonen, and Davidsson, Cederqvist, and Rousek all turn in NHL-roster caliber players in 3 years. JBot! That's who.

True, if you have an NHL team full of talented 19-25 year olds and a weak prospect pool, it’s different than having an NHL team full of talented 29-35 year olds and a weak prospect pool.  Still it’s important to have a semi consistent influx of cheap young players on their ELC and RFA contracts.

[LGR4GM]

27 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

While I agree about Rossi, his definition isn't broad enough. Because Mitts and Thompson played over 100 games they aren't considered prospect in his world.  Where would we be with both back on his list?  They should be.  Both are under 23 and not in the NHL.  The 100 games cut off is BS in my humble opinion as each prospect develops differently.  If they had 200 games in the AHL, they still be prospects and that is way more pro experience.  

 

26 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

The question is if the Bader system includes Dahlin and Jokiharju.

And who'll be laughing all the way to the Space Bank when Cronholm, Worge-Kreu, Kukkonen, and Laaksonen, and Davidsson, Cederqvist, and Rousek all turn in NHL-roster caliber players in 3 years. JBot! That's who.

Sorry but these are both excuses. Other teams have players from the 2017 Draft (Mitts) and 2016 draft (Tage) that aren't counted either but they are still ranked above us. Carolina continuously drafts well despite players graduating from the prospect ranks. You want to make excuses that because so and so is not counted anymore we are low, but the truth is we are low because without so and so there isn't anyone else. It is draft after draft of getting 1 guy. It is draft after draft of not getting value. It is draft after draft of failure. 

I see a sliver of hope in this years draft but also a forest of concern. Make excuses but the Sabres have a bad prospect pool because they draft bad, not because Tage, Mitts, and Dahlin no longer count as prospects. Also Tage was not a Sabres pick nor was Jokiharju so they don't count in the grand scheme of do you draft well. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

 

Sorry but these are both excuses. Other teams have players from the 2017 Draft (Mitts) and 2016 draft (Tage) that aren't counted either but they are still ranked above us. Carolina continuously drafts well despite players graduating from the prospect ranks. You want to make excuses that because so and so is not counted anymore we are low, but the truth is we are low because without so and so there isn't anyone else. It is draft after draft of getting 1 guy. It is draft after draft of not getting value. It is draft after draft of failure. 

I see a sliver of hope in this years draft but also a forest of concern. Make excuses but the Sabres have a bad prospect pool because they draft bad, not because Tage, Mitts, and Dahlin no longer count as prospects. Also Tage was not a Sabres pick nor was Jokiharju so they don't count in the grand scheme of do you draft well. 

You never read the entire post.

I said:

Quote

That said the Sabres have drafted poorly for years.  

And then enumerated all the bad drafting, poor trade decisions and poor development decisions that destroyed our prospect pool