2019-20 Sabres Prospects

[PerreaultForever]

On 9/4/2020 at 10:46 AM, dudacek said:

That the LOGgers are a 4th line remains one of the most common mischaracterizations about the Sabres.

Larsson was 6th in ice time among Sabre forwards.

It's not a mischaracterization, it's what they should be. 

They got more ice time because Krueger was trying to create a work ethic scenario where effort was rewarded with playing time and since lines 2 and 3 were crap they often got start periods and play more. They also got tossed out against checking lines when Krueger wanted to keep those lines off Eichel.  

If they're still a line next season and they're not our 4th line we're in trouble. 

[DarthEbriate]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

If they're still a line next season and they're not our 4th line we're in trouble. 

I think Larry and Girgs will sign elsewhere, but the LOG line could absolutely be effective as #3 (as they were this year) if the top two lines are filled out with top-six players playing their correct positions. Then, the 4th line can be a line with a defined purpose and not just another misshapen and inept 2nd line.

Look at VGK -- their 4th line plays 8 minutes a night but is great at what they do: go hit, cause chaos, and be energetic. Occasionally they'll get a goal. The LOG line does a lot more than that: they can shut down top lines. They don't score much, but they can get a cycle going offensively. They can suppress the best for 12-15 minutes/night. And for a few games here and there last season, the LOG carried this team. VGK #4 doesn't do that. However, VGK has 3 complete lines above them.

If (a very big if) we get two bona fide top lines, then we can afford a top checking line like the LOG. And then line 4 can be kid/specialists or a defined energy line. All bookended by: I doubt Girgs or Larry is a Sabre next season.

[PerreaultForever]

30 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

I think Larry and Girgs will sign elsewhere, but the LOG line could absolutely be effective as #3 (as they were this year) if the top two lines are filled out with top-six players playing their correct positions. Then, the 4th line can be a line with a defined purpose and not just another misshapen and inept 2nd line.

Look at VGK -- their 4th line plays 8 minutes a night but is great at what they do: go hit, cause chaos, and be energetic. Occasionally they'll get a goal. The LOG line does a lot more than that: they can shut down top lines. They don't score much, but they can get a cycle going offensively. They can suppress the best for 12-15 minutes/night. And for a few games here and there last season, the LOG carried this team. VGK #4 doesn't do that. However, VGK has 3 complete lines above them.

If (a very big if) we get two bona fide top lines, then we can afford a top checking line like the LOG. And then line 4 can be kid/specialists or a defined energy line. All bookended by: I doubt Girgs or Larry is a Sabre next season.

I'm not sure teams are lining up to grab Girgs but maybe Larry. Certainly won't be shocked if either leaves. 

I'm not sure Vegas built that intentionally or it was just the best answer to utilize what they had. It's certainly the old philosophy though and I wouldn't argue against it. 2 scoring lines, a checking line and a crash/energy line. Pretty tough to have more than 2 scoring lines in a cap league so it's a reasonable approach for sure. 

and crash lines are fun to watch 🙂

[Curt]

39 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

I think Larry and Girgs will sign elsewhere, but the LOG line could absolutely be effective as #3 (as they were this year) if the top two lines are filled out with top-six players playing their correct positions. Then, the 4th line can be a line with a defined purpose and not just another misshapen and inept 2nd line.

Look at VGK -- their 4th line plays 8 minutes a night but is great at what they do: go hit, cause chaos, and be energetic. Occasionally they'll get a goal. The LOG line does a lot more than that: they can shut down top lines. They don't score much, but they can get a cycle going offensively. They can suppress the best for 12-15 minutes/night. And for a few games here and there last season, the LOG carried this team. VGK #4 doesn't do that. However, VGK has 3 complete lines above them.

If (a very big if) we get two bona fide top lines, then we can afford a top checking line like the LOG. And then line 4 can be kid/specialists or a defined energy line. All bookended by: I doubt Girgs or Larry is a Sabre next season.

Agree.  They were more than the normal “good” 8-10 min 4th line.  They were a good shutdown bottom 6 line that you can put out for 10-15 mins depending on matchups.  And if they were on a team with a reasonably balanced top 6, they would allow the other bottom 6 line to be heavily offensively focused and sheltered.

[Thorner]

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

Philly, Montreal, Colorado and Ottawa 10-9-8-7 in Pronman's Under-22 rankings.

Only six more teams to go. Sabres yet to drop

Not surprised, considering Dahlin is included. Dahlin/Cozens is a very strong duo. 

[Thorner]

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

It's not a mischaracterization, it's what they should be. 

They got more ice time because Krueger was trying to create a work ethic scenario where effort was rewarded with playing time and since lines 2 and 3 were crap they often got start periods and play more. They also got tossed out against checking lines when Krueger wanted to keep those lines off Eichel.  

If they're still a line next season and they're not our 4th line we're in trouble. 

The 4th lines that get 8-10 minutes like @Curt mentioned are usually energy guys, not shut-down match-up Cs like Larsson who deserve and will get more minutes. Sometimes teams will be structured where the 4th line, the one that gets the lowest minutes, is an offensively sheltered line. That can work too. 

LOG shouldn't be anything other than the 4th option when you need a goal, but when looking at overall minutes, ranking 3rd is fine and makes sense. 

Edited September 9, 2020 by Thorny

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

The 4th lines that get 8-10 minutes like @Curt mentioned are usually energy guys, not shut-down match-up Cs like Larsson who deserve and will get more minutes. Sometimes teams will be structured where the 4th line, the one that gets the lowest minutes, is an offensively sheltered line. That can work too. 

LOG shouldn't be anything other than the 4th option when you need a goal, but when looking at overall minutes, ranking 3rd is fine and makes sense. 

I don't disagree with that in theory, but I have a little trouble referring to Larsson as a "shut-down" player. They may have used him in that capacity or attempted to, but he's really not that great. If I'm a star player I think of Bergeron as a shut down player and I'd rather not be matched against him (for example). Larsson I'd see more as a nuisance who will get in my way a little but in the end won't stop me completely so I'm fine facing him any time.

 

[Brawndo]

Sabres are 5th on Pronman’s List 

[LGR4GM]

For the record, Rasmus Dahlin measured 6' 2.75" at the combine but Pronman is using elite prospects for his height so that's where he gets 6'2" from. 

I would also note that Pronman has never been a big Dahlin fan going back to 2018. I mention this because he has a line about Dahlin not being a big hard defensemen but at 6'3" and 205lbs as a 20 year old... he's pretty big and he's mean down low. 

[SwampD]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I don't disagree with that in theory, but I have a little trouble referring to Larsson as a "shut-down" player. They may have used him in that capacity or attempted to, but he's really not that great. If I'm a star player I think of Bergeron as a shut down player and I'd rather not be matched against him (for example). Larsson I'd see more as a nuisance who will get in my way a little but in the end won't stop me completely so I'm fine facing him any time.

 

Ftr, I’m pretty sure that the GLO line was to only line in the entire league that was a plus against Bergeron’s “perfection” line. Larry’s a shut down player.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Sabres are 5th on Pronman’s List 

I gotta say Pronman is always going to favour the special things a guy can do with his hands over the decisions he makes with his brain. It's why he continues to rank Mittelstadt high and Samuelsson low.

He would have had Max Afinogenov in the "special" category and Bill Hajt in the "has a chance to play in the NHL" category.

And for the record, I see Casey eventually settling into a similar role, numbers and career to Max — a luxury mid-roster offensive player who teases more than he delivers, and Mattias to Hajt — a reliable, unsung mid-pairing shutdown defenseman who plays for a long time.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I gotta say Pronman is always going to favour the special things a guy can do with his hands over the decisions he makes with his brain. It's why he continues to rank Mittelstadt high and Samuelsson low.

He would have had Max Afinogenov in the "special" category and Bill Hajt in the "has a chance to play in the NHL" category.

And for the record, I see Casey eventually settling into a similar role, numbers and career to Max — a luxury mid-roster offensive player who teases more than he delivers, and Mattias to Hajt — a reliable, unsung mid-pairing shutdown defenseman who plays for a long time.

That would be amazing, but I'll eat my hat if it happens.  Max had 3 seasons of 61 or more pts (one of which was 61 in 56 games, and another of which was 73 pts).  I have a hard time seeing Casey putting up 40 pts at any point in his career, and I think it's close to 50/50 that he washes out entirely.

[jsb]

22 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

That would be amazing, but I'll eat my hat if it happens.  Max had 3 seasons of 61 or more pts (one of which was 61 in 56 games, and another of which was 73 pts).  I have a hard time seeing Casey putting up 40 pts at any point in his career, and I think it's close to 50/50 that he washes out entirely.

I think you've been infected by the Sabrespacersa virus. Everything Sabre doesn't suck and will eventually fall flat on its face. 😀😀 Maybe it should be mandatory we wear a mask on this site. Geez. We're not as far away as some people think and if we could get some direction in the front office and coaching staff, I really think we'll be ok. There is talent on this team and our throw aways seem to find redemption when they play for some one else. Bogo-Lehner-Scandella-Fedun-ROR. 1 or 2 smart additions and we'll be on our way.

[Brawndo]

 

[nfreeman]

30 minutes ago, jsb said:

I think you've been infected by the Sabrespacersa virus. Everything Sabre doesn't suck and will eventually fall flat on its face. 😀😀 Maybe it should be mandatory we wear a mask on this site. Geez. We're not as far away as some people think and if we could get some direction in the front office and coaching staff, I really think we'll be ok. There is talent on this team and our throw aways seem to find redemption when they play for some one else. Bogo-Lehner-Scandella-Fedun-ROR. 1 or 2 smart additions and we'll be on our way.

I generally agree that the Sabres aren't as far away as some might think -- but I also think Mitts has many miles to go before he can play in the NHL, and that there is a good likelihood that he won't get there.

[JohnC]

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I generally agree that the Sabres aren't as far away as some might think -- but I also think Mitts has many miles to go before he can play in the NHL, and that there is a good likelihood that he won't get there.

If it turns out that Mitts doesn't become a capable player in the league or even becomes a player in the league he will be surpassed and replaced by other players. He not developing into what was hoped for when he was drafted will be replaced by a player like Cozens who is more likely to become a consequential player for us. That's how it works. Nylander was a disappointment and was exchanged for Joki. The young defenseman seems to be on a high trajectory. That would be a plus. Sheary and Rodriques were inconsequential players for us. The player who we got for him was Kahun. If he turns out to be a good third liner at worst and a second liner at best then roster would be upgraded. That would be a plus. In this league there is always a lot of player shuffling. What you hope for is when the plusses and minuses are added up it ends up with a positive number.  

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

That would be amazing, but I'll eat my hat if it happens.  Max had 3 seasons of 61 or more pts (one of which was 61 in 56 games, and another of which was 73 pts).  I have a hard time seeing Casey putting up 40 pts at any point in his career, and I think it's close to 50/50 that he washes out entirely.

Wasn’t talking so much the point totals with Max, more how the tools always left you wanting more. He was a bonus because you couldn’t count on him to lead, only to occasionally dazzle.

I can easily see Casey scoring 40-50 annually with a 60 thrown in at some point. People forget he scored 37 points in 93 games before he turned 21.

 I agree there is a good chance Mitts washes out entirely if he doesn’t stop approaching the game like pond hockey.

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, SwampD said:

Ftr, I’m pretty sure that the GLO line was to only line in the entire league that was a plus against Bergeron’s “perfection” line. Larry’s a shut down player.

We're going to have to disagree on that one but no point in keeping it going.

I am curious though, since you view him so highly (i.e. not a 4th liner) what number/term would you offer him to stay?

[nfreeman]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Wasn’t talking so much the point totals with Max, more how the tools always left you wanting more. He was a bonus because you couldn’t count on him to lead, only to occasionally dazzle.

I can easily see Casey scoring 40-50 annually with a 60 thrown in at some point. People forget he scored 37 points in 93 games before he turned 21.

 I agree there is a good chance Mitts washes out entirely if he doesn’t stop approaching the game like pond hockey.

Well, I think this is fair for the early part of Max's career, but over time he developed into a major, and not occasional, contributor -- not on par with Drury or Briere (and I agree with your point on leadership), but right there IMHO with Vanek, Roy, Pommer, etc.  His speed put a ton of pressure on the opposing D.  He was also an underrated playmaker who could pass it as well, if not better, than he shot it.  Also, the Sabres sending him out with a couple of talented linemates on their 3rd line created major matchup problems for the opponent.

If Mitts ends up contributing as much as Max did, it will be a major win for the Sabres and a big surprise to me.  I never saw Max looking anywhere near as lost and hopeless as Casey looked this past season.

[jsb]

^^^^

I'm not nearly as down on Mitts as you and some others are. I think his biggest issue isn't skill or talent but immaturity. Playing with his high school team instead of staying with his development program is a flag for me. I don't think he took his livelihood/career seriously enough and I'm still hopeful that him getting placed in AHL was the beginning of him wakening up. Some kids are ready for the world early and others need to become more of an adult down the road. He reminds me of a kid that hadn't faced adversity yet and found some last year. To me his hands are elite and that skill will serve him well down the road, hopefully here and sooner than later.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Well, I think this is fair for the early part of Max's career, but over time he developed into a major, and not occasional, contributor -- not on par with Drury or Briere (and I agree with your point on leadership), but right there IMHO with Vanek, Roy, Pommer, etc.  His speed put a ton of pressure on the opposing D.  He was also an underrated playmaker who could pass it as well, if not better, than he shot it.  Also, the Sabres sending him out with a couple of talented linemates on their 3rd line created major matchup problems for the opponent.

If Mitts ends up contributing as much as Max did, it will be a major win for the Sabres and a big surprise to me.  I never saw Max looking anywhere near as lost and hopeless as Casey looked this past season.

Well, I think you are remembering Max at 27, not 21.

Casey had 37 points in 93 NHL games before he turned 21. Max had 34 in 65.

Next 4 seasons for Max: 36, 40, 11, 31 points; sometimes it takes time.

[DarthEbriate]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Well, I think you are remembering Max at 27, not 21.

Casey had 37 points in 93 NHL games before he turned 21. Max had 34 in 65.

Next 4 seasons for Max: 36, 40, 11, 31 points; sometimes it takes time.

It's true, people forget Maxim was polished player when the league came back from the lockout. He actually started on a speed line with Sanderson and Holzinger waaay back before we even had lost Hasek and started the mini-dip of the early 00's before rebounding to the Drury-Briere-led teams.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, jsb said:

^^^^

I'm not nearly as down on Mitts as you and some others are. I think his biggest issue isn't skill or talent but immaturity. Playing with his high school team instead of staying with his development program is a flag for me. I don't think he took his livelihood/career seriously enough and I'm still hopeful that him getting placed in AHL was the beginning of him wakening up. Some kids are ready for the world early and others need to become more of an adult down the road. He reminds me of a kid that hadn't faced adversity yet and found some last year. To me his hands are elite and that skill will serve him well down the road, hopefully here and sooner than later.

I sure hope you're right, and I agree that the signs of immaturity are there, and that this often improves over time.  My bigger concern though is that Casey's alleged talent simply doesn't exist.  I do not see any signs whatsoever of Mitts being able to process the game at NHL speed.  When he has the puck in the o-zone -- which is pretty rare, as his line spends most of its time chasing the puck in the d-zone -- the opposing defender is able to simply take it away like Mitts isn't even there.  And it didn't sound like it was much better when Mitts was in Rochester either.

Time will tell.

 

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Well, I think you are remembering Max at 27, not 21.

Casey had 37 points in 93 NHL games before he turned 21. Max had 34 in 65.

Next 4 seasons for Max: 36, 40, 11, 31 points; sometimes it takes time.

Max was also able to produce in the AHL substantially better than Casey did (18 pts in 15 games vs 25 pts in 36 games for Casey).  Max was also essentially a 40-pt guy in his 1st 3 NHL seasons, other than the 11-pt season, which he missed more than half of with a concussion, and the following season, in which he had 31 pts.

Apples and crabapples.

Overall, I will reiterate that, as with Nylander last year, I'm in no hurry to cut Casey loose.  The Sabres should not do so until he needs to clear waivers or they have to make a significant contractual commitment to keep him.  Until then, he should stay in Rochester.  In the meantime, I'm happy to include him in a package for a good player if the other team wants him, and I'm definitely not counting on him.

[Thorner]

On 9/9/2020 at 6:53 AM, LGR4GM said:

For the record, Rasmus Dahlin measured 6' 2.75" at the combine but Pronman is using elite prospects for his height so that's where he gets 6'2" from. 

I would also note that Pronman has never been a big Dahlin fan going back to 2018. I mention this because he has a line about Dahlin not being a big hard defensemen but at 6'3" and 205lbs as a 20 year old... he's pretty big and he's mean down low. 

Right now, when he talks, he exudes young and determined. Soon he'll just be determined. 

On 9/9/2020 at 11:36 AM, Brawndo said:

 

 Came to post this. 

I, personally, am going to have to create a paragraph for Botterill positives just for the purpose of mentioning his selection of Cozens, after this kid reveals himself to be The Answer, aren't I?

Edited September 10, 2020 by Thorny

[Broken Ankles]

15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Right now, when he talks, he exudes young and determined. Soon he'll just be determined. 

 Came to post this. 

I, personally, am going to have to create a paragraph for Botterill positives just for the purpose of mentioning his selection of Cozens, after this kid reveals himself to be The Answer, aren't I?

If Cozens becomes "Point-esque" is  that enough to move JB below TM as worst Sabres GM of all-time?  What if Joki's acceleration to solidify the right  side on the second pairing happens this year?  What about Pekar, UPL, Laaksonen, or Sameulsson breaking through within 12-18 months.   Or Ryan Johnson's development getting back on track.   What combination  of these would elevate TM to worst of all-time?