2019-20 Sabres Prospects

[GASabresIUFAN]

45 minutes ago, sabremike said:

Trading up in the draft for a guy who is damaged goods and could end up out of the sport without playing a single pro game is Peak Botts

He wasn’t injured when we drafted him.  Sorry

[sabremike]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He wasn’t injured when we drafted him.  Sorry

The article specifically said he noticed something was wrong and he was feeling discomfort in May of 2019 (a month before the draft). It's also an example of Botts employing the absolute worst strategy you can use in a draft, which is giving up picks to move up after the first two rounds because everything else after that is a crapshoot and the best way to end up striking gold is to have as many picks as possible.

[dudacek]

In the growing list of Botterill mistakes, giving up a sixth rounder in order to move up 20 spots in the 4th round to pick a kid they had ranked much higher barely scratches the surface.

[sabremike]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

In the growing list of Botterill mistakes, giving up a sixth rounder in order to move up 20 spots in the 4th round to pick a kid they had ranked much higher barely scratches the surface.

You missed the point: in the grand scheme of thing it wasn't giving away ROR but it's a very good example of the poor decision making that is a Botts trademark (just like the infamous straight swap of 6th rounders in 2018 that defied all logic and common sense).

[shrader]

11 minutes ago, sabremike said:

You missed the point: in the grand scheme of thing it wasn't giving away ROR but it's a very good example of the poor decision making that is a Botts trademark (just like the infamous straight swap of 6th rounders in 2018 that defied all logic and common sense).

Wait, people actually care about trading a 2018 6th round pick for a 2019 6th round pick?  You traded a scratch off lottery ticket today for one tomorrow.  Look, we have plenty of things to use against him, but this one is a stretch, particularly with how much the talent pool varies from year to year.

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, sabremike said:

You missed the point: in the grand scheme of thing it wasn't giving away ROR but it's a very good example of the poor decision making that is a Botts trademark (just like the infamous straight swap of 6th rounders in 2018 that defied all logic and common sense).

If Huglen (who may have 2nd round talent and 6th round development) even hits at a CJ Smith level, it was a successful trade. And he was always a 5-year development project, injury or not.

The last 10 years worth of Sabres 4th and 6th round picks have combined for 110 NHL games, the vast majority of them from Linus Ullmark.

If I like the kid a lot, I trade a 6th to make sure I get him every time.

[sabremike]

1 minute ago, shrader said:

Wait, people actually care about trading a 2018 6th round pick for a 2019 6th round pick?  You traded a scratch off lottery ticket today for one tomorrow.  Look, we have plenty of things to use against him, but this one is a stretch, particularly with how much the talent pool varies from year to year.

He traded THE FIRST PICK OF THE 2018 6TH ROUND straight up for another team's 6th rounder next year that had ZERO CHANCE OF BEING BETTER THAN THE PICK HE GAVE UP. And on top of that another team that very draft swapped 6th rounders and got an additional pick for doing so, SOMETHING BOTTS WITH THE BEST PICK IN THE ENTIRE ROUND FAILED TO ACCOMPLISH. Seriously if you can't see that this was basically like a comedy sketch than I don't know what to say.

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, sabremike said:

He traded THE FIRST PICK OF THE 2018 6TH ROUND straight up for another team's 6th rounder next year that had ZERO CHANCE OF BEING BETTER THAN THE PICK HE GAVE UP. And on top of that another team that very draft swapped 6th rounders and got an additional pick for doing so, SOMETHING BOTTS WITH THE BEST PICK IN THE ENTIRE ROUND FAILED TO ACCOMPLISH. Seriously if you can't see that this was basically like a comedy sketch than I don't know what to say.

Your second all-caps isn’t necessarily correct though. Maybe the Sabres didn’t think there was a prospect worth drafting in the 6th round of 2018?

If you were given the choice of the 20th best Sabre today, or the 20th best Lightning tomorrow, you’d probably take the Lightning, right?

Im not defending the trade, but it’s not the big deal you are making it out to be.

 

[shrader]

15 minutes ago, sabremike said:

He traded THE FIRST PICK OF THE 2018 6TH ROUND straight up for another team's 6th rounder next year that had ZERO CHANCE OF BEING BETTER THAN THE PICK HE GAVE UP. And on top of that another team that very draft swapped 6th rounders and got an additional pick for doing so, SOMETHING BOTTS WITH THE BEST PICK IN THE ENTIRE ROUND FAILED TO ACCOMPLISH. Seriously if you can't see that this was basically like a comedy sketch than I don't know what to say.

And if you scroll through that draft an other drafts, you'll find several trades identical to this one, a pick in round X this year for a pick in round X next year.  It doesn't matter how much you yell about this, it's a very common move and it doesn't make any of these GMs inept.  And it also doesn't matter one bit that it's the first pick of the 6th round.  The 156th overall pick does hold some magical value above anything else in that range.

[Taro T]

Just now, shrader said:

And if you scroll through that draft an other drafts, you'll find several trades identical to this one, a pick in round X this year for a pick in round X next year.  It doesn't matter how much you yell about this, it's a very common move and it doesn't make any of these GMs inept.  And it also doesn't matter one bit that it's the first pick of the 6th round.  The 156th overall pick does hold some magical value above anything else in that range.

And further, he now has a small favor owed by a neighboring rival.  The odds of the pick the Loafs made panning out is still slim.  But now, for something later on that may seem inconsequential to the Loafs, but is of greater import to the Sabres, they owe Botterill one.

Probably inconsequential either way, but never a bad idea to have somebody owe you a favor, especially when it comes essentially at the value of a 7th round pick.  (The delta in value from having that 6th today or next year, that 6th today is equivalent to either a single 5th next year, or a 6th & a 7th next year.)

[sabremike]

9 minutes ago, shrader said:

And if you scroll through that draft an other drafts, you'll find several trades identical to this one, a pick in round X this year for a pick in round X next year.  It doesn't matter how much you yell about this, it's a very common move and it doesn't make any of these GMs inept.  And it also doesn't matter one bit that it's the first pick of the 6th round.  The 156th overall pick does hold some magical value above anything else in that range.

Yes, and doing so is not completely stupid because in those cases there is actually a chance the pick next year ends up higher. There is zero chance of that if the pick you give up is the first in the round.

[shrader]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And further, he now has a small favor owed by a neighboring rival.  The odds of the pick the Loafs made panning out is still slim.  But now, for something later on that may seem inconsequential to the Loafs, but is of greater import to the Sabres, they owe Botterill one.

Probably inconsequential either way, but never a bad idea to have somebody owe you a favor, especially when it comes essentially at the value of a 7th round pick.  (The delta in value from having that 6th today or next year, that 6th today is equivalent to either a single 5th next year, or a 6th & a 7th next year.)

These are the little things we can never track.  For all we know, it could have also been a return on a previous favor.  Those pesky "future considerations" exist even if they're not specifically mentioned in the trade.

Also, the values you suggested are kind of interesting.  If you look at the 2019 draft, Buffalo wound up trading that Toronto pick along with their 7th rounder in 2019 for a 5th rounder in 2019.  So that 2018 6th rounder along with a 2017 7th rouder wound up equating to a 2018 5th rounder... almost exactly what you're suggesting.

And Buffalo moved all over the place in the 2019 draft.  I'd suspect that it was a draft they had more interest in.

[sabremike]

7 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And further, he now has a small favor owed by a neighboring rival.  The odds of the pick the Loafs made panning out is still slim.  But now, for something later on that may seem inconsequential to the Loafs, but is of greater import to the Sabres, they owe Botterill one.

Probably inconsequential either way, but never a bad idea to have somebody owe you a favor, especially when it comes essentially at the value of a 7th round pick.  (The delta in value from having that 6th today or next year, that 6th today is equivalent to either a single 5th next year, or a 6th & a 7th next year.)

Kinda funny that Botts is always the one doing favors for other teams in most of the moves he makes but oddly nobody ever seem to do favors for us. Almost as if doing favors for other organizations and expecting them to be repaid is really really dumb.

[shrader]

4 minutes ago, sabremike said:

Yes, and doing so is not completely stupid because in those cases there is actually a chance the pick next year ends up higher. There is zero chance of that if the pick you give up is the first in the round.

The draft pool has completely different levels of depth from year to year.  156 one year does not equal 156 the next.  If they feel that 2019 is deeper than 2018, it won't matter in a GMs mind if the pick is a 10 or so slots later.

[sabremike]

4 minutes ago, shrader said:

These are the little things we can never track.  For all we know, it could have also been a return on a previous favor.  Those pesky "future considerations" exist even if they're not specifically mentioned in the trade.

Also, the values you suggested are kind of interesting.  If you look at the 2019 draft, Buffalo wound up trading that Toronto pick along with their 7th rounder in 2019 for a 5th rounder in 2019.  So that 2018 6th rounder along with a 2017 7th rouder wound up equating to a 2018 5th rounder... almost exactly what you're suggesting.

And Buffalo moved all over the place in the 2019 draft.  I'd suspect that it was a draft they had more interest in.

They gave up 3 scratch off lottery tickets (which is what late round picks are) and ended up with 2. Think of it this way: anything after round 4 in any draft you can put every available name on a dartboard and whomever you hit you take and that has roughly the same exact odds of panning out. Probability says having more darts to throw increases your odds of winning

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, sabremike said:

They gave up 3 scratch off lottery tickets (which is what late round picks are) and ended up with 2. Think of it this way: anything after round 4 in any draft you can put every available name on a dartboard and whomever you hit you take and that has roughly the same exact odds of panning out. Probability says having more darts to throw increases your odds of winning

Except you aren’t dealing with a dartboard.

You invest a lot of resources into your scouting staff as a way to tilt the odds in your favour.

If your scouts say Aaron Huglen is a top 60 prospect and you can get him with pick 102 and pick 160-something, don’t you pull the trigger? I do.

If your scouts tell you this draft is 150 players deep and next year’s is deeper and you get offered a pick next year for a pick after your 150 are gone, don’t you take it? I do.

You are judging these moves based on arbitrary premises that probably don’t reflect the premises Botterill was given.

Edited May 12, 2020 by dudacek

[Eleven]

Detroit and Vancouver made similar moves in the sixth round of that draft and picked up sweeteners.  Buffalo did not.  Yes, once again, Botterill was a patsy, and many of us were scratching our heads at the time it happened.

Some vague "Toronto will do us a favor later" sentiment isn't actual value.

Now, in the pantheon of Botterill screwups, that probably was the least important, but a screwup it was.

[sabremike]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Except you aren’t dealing with a dartboard.

You invest a lot of resources into your scouting staff as a way to tilt the odds in your favour.

If your scouts say Aaron Huglen is a top 60 prospect and you can get him with pick 102 and pick 160-something, don’t you pull the trigger? I do.

If your scouts tell you this draft is 150 players deep and next year’s is deeper and you get offered a pick next year for a pick after your 150 are gone, don’t you take it? I do.

You are judging these moves based on arbitrary premises that probably don’t reflect the premises Botterill was given.

And the fact that his draft batting average makes Mario Mendoza look like Ty Cobb speaks for itself.

[shrader]

57 minutes ago, sabremike said:

They gave up 3 scratch off lottery tickets (which is what late round picks are) and ended up with 2. Think of it this way: anything after round 4 in any draft you can put every available name on a dartboard and whomever you hit you take and that has roughly the same exact odds of panning out. Probability says having more darts to throw increases your odds of winning

So earlier you argued that one was more valuable and now you're saying that they're all equal value?  Pick a side.

 

41 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Detroit and Vancouver made similar moves in the sixth round of that draft and picked up sweeteners.  Buffalo did not.  Yes, once again, Botterill was a patsy, and many of us were scratching our heads at the time it happened.

Some vague "Toronto will do us a favor later" sentiment isn't actual value.

Now, in the pantheon of Botterill screwups, that probably was the least important, but a screwup it was.

Meanwhile in the 5th round, Montreal sent a 2018 5th round pick to Chicago for their 2019 5th round pick.
-Montreal also traded a 2018 4th round pick to Calgary for a 2019 4th round pick.
-Nashville traded a 2018 3rd round pick for to Florida for a 2019 3rd round pick.
-There were also multiple 7th round deals of this nature.

So what is it, each of these GMs were played like a fool?  You can't simply compare the pick numbers to make any declaration about any of these GMs.

[dudacek]

51 minutes ago, sabremike said:

And the fact that his draft batting average makes Mario Mendoza look like Ty Cobb speaks for itself.

Again, false.

It is too early to draw conclusions, but

• 2019 Cozens looks like good value for where he was taken, Ryan Johnson maybe not and Erik Portillo's stock has gone way up.
• 2018 Dahlin was the right pick, Samuelsson and Pekar have signed pro contracts and have at least kept their draft stock
• 2017 Mittelstadt was pick 8 and is 7th in games played and 8th in points from his draft year. UPL was picked 54th and his stock went way up. Davidsson has question marks for where he was picked, but Laaksonen, Bryson and Weissbach all look like value picks.

Since Botterill started drafting, 12 picks in the entire NHL have played 100 games. Botterill picked two of them and traded for a third (Jokiharju)

Sure picking in the top 10 makes it easier, but his batting average — so far —  at the draft is pretty good compared to his peers.

He's not been a good GM, but from what we've seen so far his drafts aren't the reason why.

Edited May 12, 2020 by dudacek

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, sabremike said:

Kinda funny that Botts is always the one doing favors for other teams in most of the moves he makes but oddly nobody ever seem to do favors for us. Almost as if doing favors for other organizations and expecting them to be repaid is really really dumb.

Kahun for Sheary & Rodrigues seems to be a head scratcher from Pittsburgh's point of view.  The Sabres end up with a guy that at minimum fits into the top 9 & likely top 6 for 2 guys that were going to walk in the off-season.  

They gave up a good player for hopes that Sheary could rekindle his magic with Crosby 1 last time before hitting FA & then a player that is an NHLer but only barely.  Might that have had something to do with the Sabres taking Hunwick off their hands in the prior Sheary deal?

On the surface the trade of 6 for 6 looked dumb, it probably is, but it really is inconsequential.  And, again, having another GM owe him a favor for something this inconsequential doesn't seem, on its surface, to be a bad thing.

Doubt we'll agree on this.  No worries, all good.  ?

[shrader]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Again, false.

It is too early to draw conclusions, but

• 2019 Cozens looks like good value for where he was taken, Ryan Johnson maybe not and Erik Portillo's stock has gone way up.
• 2018 Dahlin was the right pick, Samuelsson and Pekar have signed pro contracts and have at least kept their draft stock
• 2017 Mittelstadt was pick 8 and is 7th in games played and 8th in points from his draft year. UPL was picked 54th and his stock went way up. Davidsson has question marks for where he was picked, but Laaksonen, Bryson and Weissbach all look like value picks.

Since Botterill started drafting, 12 picks in the entire NHL have played 100 games. Botterill picked two of them and traded for a third (Jokiharju)

Sure picking in the top 10 makes it easier, but his batting average — so far —  at the draft is pretty good compared to his peers.

And since we're arguing over day 2 draft picks, we're just now reaching the point where the first wave of those guys are signing their first contract.

[Eleven]

20 minutes ago, shrader said:

So earlier you argued that one was more valuable and now you're saying that they're all equal value?  Pick a side.

 

Meanwhile in the 5th round, Montreal sent a 2018 5th round pick to Chicago for their 2019 5th round pick.
-Montreal also traded a 2018 4th round pick to Calgary for a 2019 4th round pick.
-Nashville traded a 2018 3rd round pick for to Florida for a 2019 3rd round pick.
-There were also multiple 7th round deals of this nature.

So what is it, each of these GMs were played like a fool?  You can't simply compare the pick numbers to make any declaration about any of these GMs.

I only had time to check the first of those trades, and it was part of a larger series of deals.

And on top of that, Botterill doesn't get my benefit of the doubt.

[shrader]

9 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I only had time to check the first of those trades, and it was part of a larger series of deals.

And on top of that, Botterill doesn't get my benefit of the doubt.

It's fine that you don't give him the benefit of the doubt, but you need to at least apply that in reasonable scenarios.  You might want to judge him because he didn't put milk on his cheerios this morning.  Meanwhile, I'll judge that because I don't like cereal.  But at the end of that day, it's a matter that means absolutely nothing.

[sabremike]

26 minutes ago, shrader said:

So earlier you argued that one was more valuable and now you're saying that they're all equal value?  Pick a side.

 

Meanwhile in the 5th round, Montreal sent a 2018 5th round pick to Chicago for their 2019 5th round pick.
-Montreal also traded a 2018 4th round pick to Calgary for a 2019 4th round pick.
-Nashville traded a 2018 3rd round pick for to Florida for a 2019 3rd round pick.
-There were also multiple 7th round deals of this nature.

So what is it, each of these GMs were played like a fool?  You can't simply compare the pick numbers to make any declaration about any of these GMs.

If you can't see how the trade was like a Monty Python skit I can't help you. It's like something Karl Pilklington would do if you made him an NHL GM.

And we've already gone over why those trades were nowhere near as dumb as the one Botts made.