2019-20 Sabres Prospects

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Zamboni said:

I also think Mitts stays in Roch. to start the year. BUT if he looks really good and is consistently good, I can see him getting called up to Buffalo and staying up after Christmas. Especially if he’s markedly improved while with Buffalo. I hope for his sake, that’s the case. If he struggles all season in Roch. then after the season, I’ll start to consider moving on from Mitts. But I want to give a 21-22 year old, another full (20-21) season to see if he can figure things out. It would be such a bonus if he does.

Would not surprise me at all if Mittelstadt's career takes a similar path to the one that Connolly's appeared it was going to take had it not been derailed with injuries.  Connolly was rushed up to the NHL WAAAY too early on a bad team and took a long time to figure out how to succeed in the NHL.  But figure it out, he did.  Sadly, it got derailed barely after he got to that point.

[Randall Flagg]

Keep Mitts around unless another team wants him included in a package for a good NHL center.

[Thorner]

12 hours ago, Taro T said:

Would not surprise me at all if Mittelstadt's career takes a similar path to the one that Connolly's appeared it was going to take had it not been derailed with injuries.  Connolly was rushed up to the NHL WAAAY too early on a bad team and took a long time to figure out how to succeed in the NHL.  But figure it out, he did.  Sadly, it got derailed barely after he got to that point.

Connolly was hitting his stride as a near-point-a-game player before he was derailed. Had he not been derailed with injuries, we are looking at a point a game guy. I haven't given up on Casey, but Connolly was becoming something special. It's highly unlikely to me that Casey reaches that level (Reinhart isn't even a point a game player), but, I'd be glad to see it, obviously. 

My total guess is that he eventually finds his niche as a solid, 30-50 point, "middle 6" (still hate that term) winger. 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Thorny

[Ducky]

OK, didn't realize we were picking so high...The 1st in 2021 for Mittelstadt straight up.

If he's not ready, Maurice will ship him down to the Moose. If he's ready to start his apprenticeshihp to be a bona fide 2C after another year of the AHL, I'd be happy.

[Taro T]

5 hours ago, Thorny said:

Connolly was hitting his stride as a near-point-a-game player before he was derailed. Had he not been derailed with injuries, we are looking at a point a game guy. I haven't given up on Casey, but Connolly was becoming something special. It's highly unlikely to me that Casey reaches that level (Reinhart isn't even a point a game player), but, I'd be glad to see it, obviously. 

My total guess is that he eventually finds his niche as a solid, 30-50 point, "middle 6" (still hate that term) winger. 

Connolly was universally despised in Buffalo prior to the lockout.  He'd developed a lot of bad habits on the Island and was consistently a 30-40's scorer with a lot of 2nd line & top PP time and sunk to not even 30 points when his usage dropped around the time Briere got to town.  And he had a TON of turnovers early in his career trying to get way too fancy when there was a smarter, less dramatic, play to be had.

After a concussion and a lockout, he started that next year as a 24 yo with a new purpose (and a shaved head) and over the course of that season went from horrible turnovers on the PP early that year, to willing the Sabres into OT in game 1 vs the Otters.

He only had 1 ~PPG season as a 27 yo, but without the injuries he likely would've been that a bit more consistently.

Mittelstadt has similar tools, he just needs to figure out the game.  Like Connolly, he's shown glimpses he can / will.  And like Connolly, he will likely be a whipping boy until / unless he does.

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, Ducky said:

OK, didn't realize we were picking so high...The 1st in 2021 for Mittelstadt straight up.

If he's not ready, Maurice will ship him down to the Moose. If he's ready to start his apprenticeshihp to be a bona fide 2C after another year of the AHL, I'd be happy.

Why would we trade Casey for a first next year. That would be effectively trading you a player for another player who won't be NHL ready for anywhere from 3-5 years after the trade... hard no. 

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Connolly was universally despised in Buffalo prior to the lockout.  He'd developed a lot of bad habits on the Island and was consistently a 30-40's scorer with a lot of 2nd line & top PP time and sunk to not even 30 points when his usage dropped around the time Briere got to town.  And he had a TON of turnovers early in his career trying to get way too fancy when there was a smarter, less dramatic, play to be had.

After a concussion and a lockout, he started that next year as a 24 yo with a new purpose (and a shaved head) and over the course of that season went from horrible turnovers on the PP early that year, to willing the Sabres into OT in game 1 vs the Otters.

He only had 1 ~PPG season as a 27 yo, but without the injuries he likely would've been that a bit more consistently.

Mittelstadt has similar tools, he just needs to figure out the game.  Like Connolly, he's shown glimpses he can / will.  And like Connolly, he will likely be a whipping boy until / unless he does.

I agree, although I think Connolly was one of the best NHL players to ever be derailed by concussions/injury. Mitts needs some time to clean up his game. He should have stayed in college 2 years, done 1 year of AHL and then come to the NHL. He's only 2 years removed from HS hockey at this point. 

[Thorner]

7 hours ago, Taro T said:

Connolly was universally despised in Buffalo prior to the lockout.  He'd developed a lot of bad habits on the Island and was consistently a 30-40's scorer with a lot of 2nd line & top PP time and sunk to not even 30 points when his usage dropped around the time Briere got to town.  And he had a TON of turnovers early in his career trying to get way too fancy when there was a smarter, less dramatic, play to be had.

After a concussion and a lockout, he started that next year as a 24 yo with a new purpose (and a shaved head) and over the course of that season went from horrible turnovers on the PP early that year, to willing the Sabres into OT in game 1 vs the Otters.

He only had 1 ~PPG season as a 27 yo, but without the injuries he likely would've been that a bit more consistently.

Mittelstadt has similar tools, he just needs to figure out the game.  Like Connolly, he's shown glimpses he can / will.  And like Connolly, he will likely be a whipping boy until / unless he does.

It’s just, you said you were thinking a “Connolly NOT derailed” is your projection for Mittelstadt. Do you think Connolly-not-derailed would have achieved ~ point a game status, consistently? That’s what it looked like to me. 

If you share that guess/projection, I can’t in good faith think Casey reaches that level. Even Reinhart hasn’t, like I said. 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Why would we trade Casey for a first next year. That would be effectively trading you a player for another player who won't be NHL ready for anywhere from 3-5 years after the trade... hard no. 

I agree, although I think Connolly was one of the best NHL players to ever be derailed by concussions/injury. Mitts needs some time to clean up his game. He should have stayed in college 2 years, done 1 year of AHL and then come to the NHL. He's only 2 years removed from HS hockey at this point. 

Similar tools, but the game is a LOT faster even today than it was in Tim’s prime. I’ve said before, Mittelstadt, due to lack of acceleration, speed, and explosiveness, would be better suited to previous iterations of the league. 

Not sure if you are sharing Taro’s guess/projection, but if Connolly was one of the “best players to ever be derailed by a concussion” and the projection for Mittelstadt is that, not derailed, I think that’s wild. He hasn’t even cemented himself as an NHLer yet. 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

Connolly's hands were always among the best in the world even when things were going poorly for him. Mitts, on the other hand, has bad hands when compared to the NHL average 

[GASabresIUFAN]

18 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Connolly's hands were always among the best in the world even when things were going poorly for him. Mitts, on the other hand, has bad hands when compared to the NHL average 

Based on what?

[Randall Flagg]

22 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Based on what?

His film

The guy lost every puck he ever acquired and has zero hands plays to date in his time spanning parts of three seasons 

I'm more impressed by Tyler Bozak's ability to hang onto a puck in traffic than any aspect of Mitts' hands outside of the shootout and Bozak has the most average hands in existence 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

It’s just, you said you were thinking a “Connolly NOT derailed” is your projection for Mittelstadt. Do you think Connolly-not-derailed would have achieved ~ point a game status, consistently? That’s what it looked like to me. 

If you share that guess/projection, I can’t in good faith think Casey reaches that level. Even Reinhart hasn’t, like I said. 

No, that's not what was said.  The comment was that the CAREER PATH would be similar (hopefully barring the injury train).  Connolly was tremendously pedestrian, if not downright bad, his 1st 4 seasons.  (Which actually started 1 year earlier than Mittelstadt's did.)  But, after missing the next 2 years due to injury & lockout, he ended up a good player after yet another slow start in '05.  NOBODY (slight exaggeration, as Regier & Ruff kept playing him when he was available) watching him his 1st 2 years in Buffalo would've expected that because although his hands were magical, he really seemed to have a 2 bit head.  And he had no desire to go to the dirty areas.  Mittelstadt, on the other hand, while having good hands seems to insist on going to the dirty areas with the puck and loses it there very often.  (Stuff that worked in HS and college doesn't work against NHLers, it would seem).

Connolly had exactly 1 season above 55 points (65 in 73 games in '09-'10) and only 1 other year above the 40's (55 in '05-'06 when he seemed to be getting it).  He was essentially a PPG  player 1 time and that was in barely over 1/2 of a season. The derailed point being that Connolly was a 40 point player, but easily could've been consistently a 60 point player.  As good as he looked at times, he only ever paced to that PPG 1 time in his career, even in the limited times that he appeared fully healthy.

Could very easily see, in the not too distant future, Mitts turn into essentially a very similar 50 point guy.   (And similar to Connolly, Mitts is getting some time away from hockey right now due to circumstances beyond his control. ? )  Especially when a guy was thrown into a lousy situation, it takes some time to get it figured out.

[triumph_communes]

Mittelstadt lost all his confidence stick handling when guys literally doubled in weight in college and pro. He has the skills though, just a lot of baby fat and a frame to fit into. He gets sent down to Rochester takes a few games to figure things out again and then all of a sudden is a solid contributor doing things again. Classic case of just too much of a jump in competition. Give the hot takes a break. 

[Taro T]

5 hours ago, Thorny said:

It’s just, you said you were thinking a “Connolly NOT derailed” is your projection for Mittelstadt. Do you think Connolly-not-derailed would have achieved ~ point a game status, consistently? That’s what it looked like to me. 

If you share that guess/projection, I can’t in good faith think Casey reaches that level. Even Reinhart hasn’t, like I said. 

And guess that (Connolly could've been a PPG more often) was stated in the OP you originally reacted to.  That might've happened again had he been healthier, but doubt it would've happened consistently.  Do expect though high 50's - mid 60's would've consistently been the norm.  Apologies on the hyperbole.

[nfreeman]

5 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Mittelstadt lost all his confidence stick handling when guys literally doubled in weight in college and pro. He has the skills though, just a lot of baby fat and a frame to fit into. He gets sent down to Rochester takes a few games to figure things out again and then all of a sudden is a solid contributor doing things again. Classic case of just too much of a jump in competition. Give the hot takes a break. 

It’s not remotely a hot take to think that Mitts has been a major disappointment so far and is at least 50/50 to never become a good NHL forward.  

[Randall Flagg]

5 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Mittelstadt lost all his confidence stick handling when guys literally doubled in weight in college and pro. He has the skills though, just a lot of baby fat and a frame to fit into. He gets sent down to Rochester takes a few games to figure things out again and then all of a sudden is a solid contributor doing things again. Classic case of just too much of a jump in competition. Give the hot takes a break. 

everything you disagree with is a hot take that needs to take a break, and an overreaction and a flagrant lack of common sense and rabid, unhinged, misguided emotion. Triumph_communes versus the world 

Seriously, there exist rational takes that are at odds with yours, believe it or not 

Mitts' hands cannot

deke NHL players

create space for himself

create passing lanes for himself 

hang onto pucks in anything resembling tight quarters 

ergo, they're bad

This is not a declaration that they will forever be bad, of course, or that players can't develop. Just a disagreement with the idea that Mitts has skillz 

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[GASabresIUFAN]

First off, I think Mitts has an NHL future as a 2nd or 3rd line forward and agree that Tim Connolly is a great analogy.  I don't know if he develops into a play making center or wing or more of a generalist (decent goals and assists), but I think he could become a 60 pts player in his mid 20's.

However, I think there is good reason to believe he'll be traded at some point, especially if Cozens wins the 3C slot next fall.  

The reason?  Expansion and acquiring a 2C.  

The status quo Sabres have Forwards: VO, Skinner, Jack, Sam and Kahun to protect.  The next guys are probably Thompson and Mittelstadt.  

We also have Dahlin, Jokiharju, Risto and/or Montour on D to protect.  Something has to give?  

I figure Jbot/GM moves one or Montour or Risto to get a 2C resolving the extra D issue.  That leaves 6 forwards VO, Skinner, Jack, Sam, the 2C, and Kahun to protect.  That leaves one extra forward slot.  Therefore we have to choose between keeping Thompson or Mitts. The choice will hinge on how they play next season. One solution is to move either of them for a expansion exempt player.  Maybe something like Mittelstadt for Wahlstrom.  

[dudacek]

Serious question: would we need to protect Skinner?

Does he have a no-movement?

[Zamboni]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Serious question: would we need to protect Skinner?

Does he have a no-movement?

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jeff-skinner

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jeff-skinner

Thanks.

And too bad.

Botterill really got bent over on that deal, didn't he?

[triumph_communes]

10 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

everything you disagree with is a hot take that needs to take a break, and an overreaction and a flagrant lack of common sense and rabid, unhinged, misguided emotion. Triumph_communes versus the world 

Seriously, there exist rational takes that are at odds with yours, believe it or not 

Mitts' hands cannot

deke NHL players

create space for himself

create passing lanes for himself 

hang onto pucks in anything resembling tight quarters 

ergo, they're bad

This is not a declaration that they will forever be bad, of course, or that players can't develop. Just a disagreement with the idea that Mitts has skillz 

 

Superlatives don't make you right.  Neither does bad grammar and formatting.  This isn't slam poetry.

 

Connolly's hands didn't do those things, until magically they did.  It's a great analogy.  You can say 50/50 chance he isn't going to be a good forward and I think that is fair.  Still a 50% chance he comes out of his demotion with the confidence and body growth he needed.  It's the 'he's 100% bust' attitude where is my ROREEEEE???? that I am posting against.

 

Then again, I can understand your confusion.  Society has been pushing slam poetry as a debate form:

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by triumph_communes

[LGR4GM]

12 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

everything you disagree with is a hot take that needs to take a break, and an overreaction and a flagrant lack of common sense and rabid, unhinged, misguided emotion. Triumph_communes versus the world 

Seriously, there exist rational takes that are at odds with yours, believe it or not 

Mitts' hands cannot

deke NHL players

create space for himself

create passing lanes for himself 

hang onto pucks in anything resembling tight quarters 

ergo, they're bad

This is not a declaration that they will forever be bad, of course, or that players can't develop. Just a disagreement with the idea that Mitts has skillz 

 

That's his shtick. 

As to what you say, I think creating space for himself is a major problem. I am unsure if it is because he has bad hands, or because he doesn't process the game at the NHL pace. Either way he definitely needs to take a huge leap forward in development. 

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Superlatives don't make you right.  Neither does bad grammar and formatting.  This isn't slam poetry.

 

Connolly's hands didn't do those things, until magically they did.  It's a great analogy.  You can say 50/50 chance he isn't going to be a good forward and I think that is fair.  Still a 50% chance he comes out of his demotion with the confidence and body growth he needed.  It's the 'he's 100% bust' attitude where is my ROREEEEE???? that I am posting against.

Cool story.

You are talking about a player that had an entire year of college weight training and 2 full NHL offseasons of weight training to grow his body. I don't think his problem is he isn't strong enough. His probably revolves around not learning how to play the game at levels in-between HS and NHL. The result is he doesn't process the game quick enough or see the ice well enough or understand how to use his strength well enough to be an effective NHL forward. That's a reason he was bad in Rochester for the first little bit, even the AHL was above him. He needs another full AHL year IMPO. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by LGR4GM

[triumph_communes]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Cool story.

You are talking about a player that had an entire year of college weight training and 2 full NHL offseasons of weight training to grow his body. I don't think his problem is he isn't strong enough. His probably revolves around not learning how to play the game at levels in-between HS and NHL. The result is he doesn't process the game quick enough or see the ice well enough or understand how to use his strength well enough to be an effective NHL forward. That's a reason he was bad in Rochester for the first little bit, even the AHL was above him. He needs another full AHL year IMPO. 

His confidence, the part you didn’t bold, addresses this.  I don’t think ‘processing the game quick enough’ was his problem. He was tired and outmatched physically and this killed his confidence on the puck. And without his confidence he isn’t much of a player. 
 

Maybe he needs another year, but I just don’t think he’s some guaranteed bust. I saw him turning his confidence around in the AHL as he understood how to play differently against peers who just weren’t physically drowning him out. 
 

He played with awful teammates dump and chase hockey in Minnesota. Was just a square peg round hole. I wouldn’t look too much into that. 

[LGR4GM]

I don't think Minnesota really developed his game that well. That is the primary problem with casey, he's a highschooler trying to play NHL hockey.