2019-20 Sabres Prospects

[tom webster]

I don’t necessarily agree, or disagree with either of you with regards to any of the prospects but while I do believe that you can project most prospects via numbers, some guys game don’t necessarily translate well and a lot of the numbers are dramatically impacted by teammates at levels below the NHL.

The one thing I find most puzzling is how ten people can watch a prospect and report with such disparity an important trait such as skating. Casey is a prime example. He was reputed to be this great skater by some respected analysis when in fact he is a little above average. In his case it seems people have a hard time differentiating speed and quickness. It will be interesting to see how Samuelsson looks once he’s on the ice with professionals.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I find it interesting that his description and mine of Samuelsson were very similar.  The difference is that I value that skill set more because of it’s uniqueness in our system.  I also think he’ll be NHL ready quicker then a Portillo who could be 5-6 years from the NHL given how long it took Ullmark and Johansson to develop.  

His review did improve my opinion of Johnson.  

I am surprised how high he rated Weissbach who I like but worry that his lack of goal scoring ability will keep him from succeeding at a high pro level.  

I’m also surprised he included Murray and Asplund.  I thought Murray was on a AHL contract and therefore wasn’t eligible to be rated by his stated parameters.  Also Asplund was in the NHL for most of the season.  OH well.  

Overall his discussion of our system is pretty accurate.  Cozens is elite. We have excellent depth at G and D.  Besides Cozens, we also have a group of forwards who mostly project out at 3/4 line players with the exception of Routsalainen who could breakthrough as a top 6 forward.  Like I said before his development curve and Euro production look very similar to VO.  I also agree that Asplund has the potential to anchor a 3rd line in the NHL.  I am disappointed in how down he is on Pekar, but understand it given how he struggled at the World Jrs. 

[nfreeman]

From the Athletic's piece on the Sabres' prospects (which, btw, was written by a different guy than the guy who loved Mittlestadt):

 

Quote

 

Last summer, Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko, Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes were in a stratosphere of their own.

...

If I were to put together a midseason list (which I’m not, sorry!), there’s more than half a dozen players I’d probably consider for the top of the ranking.

...

Enter Cozens, who would be in that conversation.

My fourth-ranked prospect ahead of the 2019 draft, Cozens has turned a shortened summer due to injury into an excellent first half, with his 19th birthday around the corner in February. He’s a rare blend of size, speed, hands, playmaking ability and finishing touch. He can fly north-south, he’s always going to be a major factor as a forechecker and backchecker and because his decision-making can keep up with his feet, he’s extremely dangerous off the rush. If I have one concern with his toolkit, it’s that his shot isn’t a major threat. I’ve been particularly impressed by the development of his creativity this season. Cozens has begun to make more plays below the goal line and off the cycle both by surprising defenders with a slick pass through their feet or with a quick cut through traffic.

 

 

[shrader]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’m also surprised he included Murray and Asplund.  I thought Murray was on a AHL contract and therefore wasn’t eligible to be rated by his stated parameters.  Also Asplund was in the NHL for most of the season.  OH well. 

I have no idea what his criteria are.  For Murray, they should still hold his draft rights until this summer.  So that would count him as an unsigned pick the same exact way it would with someone like Johnson.

[LGR4GM]

59 minutes ago, shrader said:

I have no idea what his criteria are.  For Murray, they should still hold his draft rights until this summer.  So that would count him as an unsigned pick the same exact way it would with someone like Johnson.

"To be eligible for inclusion as a prospect, a player must be:

1. Under 23 years old. We now know that by the time a player turns 23, he is largely done the steep upward progression we see in prospects and will begin to plateau.
2. Not currently in the NHL, with rare exceptions for players who I believe could still bounce between levels and aren’t yet considered full-time NHLers by their teams. Though this is the only arbitrary section of the criteria, preference for exemption was given to teenaged players, rather than 22-year-olds.
3. Either signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without the expiration of either of those rights.

This means that players who are signed to AHL contracts, or those whose rights have expired, were not considered. Because we also know that goalies develop at a slower rate than skaters, I set the goalie age cutoff at under-24, instead of under-23."

Edited January 28, 2020 by LGR4GM

[spndnchz]

Catenacci. Boom. Drops stick.

[shrader]

33 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

To be eligible for inclusion as a prospect, a player must be:

1. Under 23 years old. We now know that by the time a player turns 23, he is largely done the steep upward progression we see in prospects and will begin to plateau.
2. Not currently in the NHL, with rare exceptions for players who I believe could still bounce between levels and aren’t yet considered full-time NHLers by their teams. Though this is the only arbitrary section of the criteria, preference for exemption was given to teenaged players, rather than 22-year-olds.
3. Either signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without the expiration of either of those rights.

This means that players who are signed to AHL contracts, or those whose rights have expired, were not considered. Because we also know that goalies develop at a slower rate than skaters, I set the goalie age cutoff at under-24, instead of under-23.

Is the bolded part your words or his?  That AHL contract part isn't specifically mentioned in the 3 criteria.  Murray would qualify by #3.  He doesn't have an NHL contract, but he was drafted and those rights have not yet expired.  This is a bit of a rare case, so it's possible he didn't think to address it when spelling out those criteria.

[LGR4GM]

That is directly quoted from him. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

28 minutes ago, shrader said:

Is the bolded part your words or his?  That AHL contract part isn't specifically mentioned in the 3 criteria.  Murray would qualify by #3.  He doesn't have an NHL contract, but he was drafted and those rights have not yet expired.  This is a bit of a rare case, so it's possible he didn't think to address it when spelling out those criteria.

 

25 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That is directly quoted from him. 

I left Murray off my list because he has an AHL contract despite being drafted by us, which is how I interpreted his rules.  Not that it matters.  Odds are pretty long against Murray ever suiting up for us.

[shrader]

44 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

I left Murray off my list because he has an AHL contract despite being drafted by us, which is how I interpreted his rules.  Not that it matters.  Odds are pretty long against Murray ever suiting up for us.

I'm simply explaining how he was on the list.  Your personal rankings have no bearing on that.

[dudacek]

This quote from the Athletic article was interesting for those who view our pipeline as empty:

This is an interesting moment in the course of the series because the Sabres represent a shift into a new class of prospect pool. There are a few clear divisions throughout the ranking, where one cluster of teams breaks apart from another. For me, it broke down into five tiers of prospect pools. They are: 1-5, 6-16, 17-22, 23-26 and 27-31.

So while it may look like the Sabres are in the bottom half of the league as a prospect pool, I don’t view it that way. They’re much closer to a few teams in the top 10 than they are to any of the teams in the bottom 10.

Edited January 28, 2020 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

Our pipeline is empty of forwards. I will repeat it until someone realizes it is true. There are 4 forwards in the top 10 from that article. 3 of them are no better than 3rd line guys. 1 of them we didn't draft but found in Sweden. The only top 6 help in the prospect pool is Cozens. We're *****. 

[shrader]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Our pipeline is empty of forwards. I will repeat it until someone realizes it is true. There are 4 forwards in the top 10 from that article. 3 of them are no better than 3rd line guys. 1 of them we didn't draft but found in Sweden. The only top 6 help in the prospect pool is Cozens. We're *****. 

I understand your complaints, but I don't think this one belongs in there.  In this day and age, that's just as valid of a talent source for prospects as any other.  Any team that is able to identify better players from that source is going to have a leg up on the competition.  The odds say he won't work out, but I want them to continue to mine that option.

And on a site note, he's in Finland, isn't he?

[sabremike]

On 1/28/2020 at 9:07 AM, LGR4GM said:

Samuelsson is going to grade out as a #6 defender. He shoots left so I guess that makes him Montour's partner and I have no desire to see Samuelsson for 18minutes a night 5v5 at NHL speed. I have a lot of doubts about him. 

I have 0 concerns for Johnson;s NCAA production. He's not only a freshmen but this is his 18yr old season. His late July birthday makes me far less worried. Meanwhile Samuelsson is producing at roughly the same and is a year older in the NCAA (17 games for Samuelsson versus 24 for Johnson). Samuelsson being a 1990 NHL defender makes me want to gag. If he isn't good at transitioning the puck out of the zone, he will fail. 

Johnson showed no offensive production in his junior career, he is not going to magically acquire that ability at a higher level. He is the type of player this organization needed the least and they passed over a kid playing 50 miles Northwest who was exactly what this organization needed. 

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, sabremike said:

Johnson showed no offensive production in his junior career, he is not going to magically acquire that ability at a higher level. He is the type of player this organization needed the least and they passed over a kid playing 50 miles Northwest who was exactly what this organization needed. 

Oh I know. I didn't like the Johnson pick. I got slammed for saying as much in June. 

18 minutes ago, shrader said:

I understand your complaints, but I don't think this one belongs in there.  In this day and age, that's just as valid of a talent source for prospects as any other.  Any team that is able to identify better players from that source is going to have a leg up on the competition.  The odds say he won't work out, but I want them to continue to mine that option.

And on a site note, he's in Finland, isn't he?

Yes he is Finnish. 

[triumph_communes]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Our pipeline is empty of forwards. I will repeat it until someone realizes it is true. There are 4 forwards in the top 10 from that article. 3 of them are no better than 3rd line guys. 1 of them we didn't draft but found in Sweden. The only top 6 help in the prospect pool is Cozens. We're *****. 

I believe you have an unrealistic expectation for a player pipeline.  Especially for one that basically just started from scratch two years back.  We don't need 4 top-6 forwards.  We need two.  The rest we have are all young and locked up for a decade.  Where we lack depth is the bottom-6, and that is what the rest of our pool has potentials for.  If you look at a player who plays a career 3rd liner as a prospect pool failure, you're not being realistic.  What we really needed was more defenseman and goalies and we got that.  You've got boom-bust Laaksonen picks and safe low ceiling Samuelsson picks.  You have multiple tall swedish athlete gambling tickets.  Had absolutely NOTHING two years back.  It's been a decent crawl up.

Edited January 29, 2020 by triumph_communes

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

They drafted 1st, 7th, 31st and 32nd in the past two drafts should have more than one bonafide forward prospect out of that group. 

9 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

I believe you have an unrealistic expectation for a player pipeline.  Especially for one that basically just started from scratch two years back.  We don't need 4 top-6 forwards.  We need two.  The rest we have are all young and locked up for a decade.  Where we lack depth is the bottom-6, and that is what the rest of our pool has potentials for.  If you look at a player who plays a career 3rd liner as a prospect pool failure, you're not being realistic.  What we really needed was more defenseman and goalies and we got that.  You've got boom-bust Laaksonen picks and safe low ceiling Samuelsson picks.  You have multiple tall swedish athlete gambling tickets.  Had absolutely NOTHING two years back.  It's been a decent crawl up.

Laaksonen should have been Farrance. Samuelsson has a low ceiling and a mediocre floor. Then you do indeed have a bunch of lotto tickets for defenders. Now do forwards. Name me any 3 forwards in the Sabres prospect pool that have top 6 potential. We have Cozens, Ruustolainen (doubtful) and ? who else? 

[WildCard]

Did we ever clean out the scouting department or revamp it or anything? We've been drafting like ***** for so long it can't all be Botterill

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Did we ever clean out the scouting department or revamp it or anything? We've been drafting like ***** for so long it can't all be Botterill

It is Botterill. He literally won't draft CHL players outside of the top of round 1. He has said almost as much because he thinks that having extra development time before they have to decide on a contract somehow makes his drafting strategy better. Ignoring 3 leagues of talent is clearly stupid. Hell last draft there was even a player in the SHL they could have had that was better and he still didn't pull the trigger because he does what he is comfortable with and that is NCAA or USHL Defenders. Pinto/Hoglander both were there and he passed. 

Edited January 29, 2020 by LGR4GM

[triumph_communes]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Laaksonen should have been Farrance. Samuelsson has a low ceiling and a mediocre floor. Then you do indeed have a bunch of lotto tickets for defenders. Now do forwards. Name me any 3 forwards in the Sabres prospect pool that have top 6 potential. We have Cozens, Ruustolainen (doubtful) and ? who else? 

Can you take this hindsight to the message board where they pretend they can hit 100% of draft picks, unlike any GM or scouting group ever has?

 

Start from the back-end out is the way to do it.  Tell me, are you pissy because you'd rather build from the offense backwards, like Toronto, or because you expect every draft pick to be an all-star?

 

A team wants to build a strength, make that their identity, and then upgrade from there.  Picking one guy here and one guy there and being sub-par in every aspect just makes for ugly hockey that we can't watch.  Despite the results last night, that game was entertaining start to finish, even after the let-down PK moments.

Edited January 29, 2020 by triumph_communes

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Can you take this hindsight to the message board where they pretend they can hit 100% of draft picks, unlike any GM or scouting group ever has?

 

Start from the back-end out is the way to do it.  Tell me, are you pissy because you'd rather build from the offense backwards, like Toronto, or because you expect every draft pick to be an all-star?

 

A team wants to build a strength, make that their identity, and then upgrade from there.  Picking one guy here and one guy there and being sub-par in every aspect just makes for ugly hockey that we can't watch.  Despite the results last night, that game was entertaining start to finish, even after the let-down PK moments.

I'm pissy because there are players we should have drafted and didn't. I'd rather build a well rounded team instead of using multiple draft picks on low end defenders when high forwards were sitting there available. Why are you so blind to the fact we draft like garbage? Is it because you think Botterill is great and his ideas are great? Is it because you started off believing we were drafting good under him and now you can't change your mind because of cognitive dissonance? Is that since I am not paid you believe the paid ppl because you are incapable of questioning their authority? What's your reasoning? Now, I am being pissy. 

12 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Can you take this hindsight to the message board where they pretend they can hit 100% of draft picks, unlike any GM or scouting group ever has?

It isn't hindsight. I reacted to most of these picks with these names and said wtf. I believe you famously said if my opinion counted for anything I would be paid for it. 

Edited January 29, 2020 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Our pipeline is empty of forwards. I will repeat it until someone realizes it is true. There are 4 forwards in the top 10 from that article. 3 of them are no better than 3rd line guys. 1 of them we didn't draft but found in Sweden. The only top 6 help in the prospect pool is Cozens. We're *****. 

 Is there no chance of Thompson or Mittelstadt ever scoring 20 plus goals in the NHL?

 

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 Is there no chance of Thompson or Mittelstadt ever scoring 20 plus goals in the NHL?

Maybe. Thompson is an enigma at this point and Mitts is a okay AHL forward. 

[LGR4GM]

I suppose it doesn't matter does it. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

34 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 Is there no chance of Thompson or Mittelstadt ever scoring 20 plus goals in the NHL?

 

 

31 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Maybe. Thompson is an enigma at this point and Mitts is a okay AHL forward. 

 

28 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I suppose it doesn't matter does it. 

It does matter.  If this rebuild is going to succeed Mitts, Cozen and Thompson need to become 3rd line or better players.  

I happen to believe that Mitts is another Pominville or JP Dumont type player and when the light goes on he’ll develop into a legit top 6 player but at RW.  I could be wrong but we all should hope I’m not.

Edited January 29, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN