2019-20 Sabres Prospects

[LGR4GM]

just going to miss the forest through the trees here. 

[Curt]

33 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

just going to miss the forest through the trees here. 

Yes, it’s true, Pekar isn’t dominating.  His numbers are not high end territory for a D+2 player.  He is doing well but not to such an extent that it further raises his prospect status.

[GASabresIUFAN]

25 minutes ago, Curt said:

Yes, it’s true, Pekar isn’t dominating.  His numbers are not high end territory for a D+2 player.  He is doing well but not to such an extent that it further raises his prospect status.

I disagree.  His future role in Buffalo is as a depth winger who can add some offense and drive opponents nuts.  I’m thinking a better version of Matt Barnaby.  He is 34th in the OHL in points per game, but 25th in g/gp. 10 of the guys ahead of him in p/gp are overagers.  In his age group he is 11th in pts and 8th in g/gp.  Not bad for a mid round pick.  Most of guys ahead of him are top 3 rd picks.

Looking at the OHL numbers, there is an undrafted Russian in his 4th OHL season named Pavel Gogolev.  Anyone know anything about is kid? We need goal scoring and this kid seems to be producing.

One other note:  Looks like we gave up much to early of Brandon Hagel.  He was our 6th RHD pick in 2016 and blossomed as an overager in 2018-19. He scored 41g and added 61a He then signed with Chicago after being non-tendered by us and has scored 13g so far for Rockford and earned his first call up.  

Edited January 21, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

34 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I disagree.  His future role in Buffalo is as a depth winger who can add some offense and drive opponents nuts.  I’m thinking a better version of Matt Barnaby.  He is 34th in the OHL in points per game, but 25th in g/gp. 10 of the guys ahead of him in p/gp are overagers.  In his age group he is 11th in pts and 8th in g/gp.  Not bad for a mid round pick.  Most of guys ahead of him are top 3 rd picks.

I think that before the season started he profiled exactly the same way.

We are hopeful/optimistic that he will be come an agitator/bottom 6 guy who can also score a little (10-15 goals).  I think it was the same prior to the season.

[LGR4GM]

29 minutes ago, Curt said:

I think that before the season started he profiled exactly the same way.

We are hopeful/optimistic that he will be come an agitator/bottom 6 guy who can also score a little (10-15 goals).  I think it was the same prior to the season.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I disagree.  His future role in Buffalo is as a depth winger who can add some offense and drive opponents nuts.  I’m thinking a better version of Matt Barnaby.  He is 34th in the OHL in points per game, but 25th in g/gp. 10 of the guys ahead of him in p/gp are overagers.  In his age group he is 11th in pts and 8th in g/gp.  Not bad for a mid round pick.  Most of guys ahead of him are top 3 rd picks.

Right he is playing well but dominating is what Byfield, Rossi, and McMichael are doing. It doesn't matter that he is 11th in pts for his age group because there are players younger than him dominating the scoring in the OHL. 

Playing well, yes. Dominating, meh. 

[French Collection]

Going to watch Sudbury tonight. I’m interested in seeing Byfield again and how Pekar fits with a top C on his line.

I’ve seen Pekar play, but not with an elite line mate. He has impressed me as an energy and PK guy. This role will be more offensively orientated.

I’m still hoping for a Sabres playoff run but if they fall short I hope they get lucky in the lottery and have a shot at Byfield. Lafreniere would be excellent but there are some other good prospects in this draft.

[Doohicksie]

43 minutes ago, French Collection said:

He has impressed me as an energy and PK guy. This role will be more offensively orientated.

Reminds me of Justin Abdelkader.  He came up as a bottom 6 energy guy and worked his way into the top 6 including playing on the top line.  Now he's playing more of a role like David Legwand did with the Sabres- steady veteran presence/PK specialist.  If Pekar could give us an Abdelkader-like career I'd be very happy.

[French Collection]

Byfield didn’t dress.

Pekar had a goal and two assists. He was on the 2nd line but PP1. He has a good shot, hustles and draws penalties. He wasn’t the high energy guy that I had watched before, but his team was cruising to an easy win. He’s not big but is stocky looking compared to a lot of these junior beanpoles. He is a possibility as a bottom six winger for the Sabres.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just checked where Wheeler of the Athletic is in his countdown of the team’s pipelines.  He is up to 17 and interestingly no Sabres yet.  

From Pronman’s article we know that Cozens and UPL are very highly thought of, but I’m curious how they feel about the other guys in our system guys like Laaksonen, Samuelsson, Johnson, Pekar, Davidsson, Routsalainen and Weissbach. 

Wheeler said that teams with greater depth in their system tended to rank higher.  I’m curious how far up the ladder we are in his opinion.  I see only 15/16 legit prospects in our pipeline, I’m now under the impression he sees more, which would be great news. Right now we have 21 players that would qualify for his list in general terms.  However I doubt he ranks Mittelstadt, Thompson and Asplund do to their NHL experience although Asplund, who is back in the AHL could be ranked.  Jokiharju would have also qualified before the season started but is now an NHL fixture.  Borgen and Johansson have also aged out of his list although I think both are still legit prospects. That leaves 18 players, not including Asplund, and only 14 of which I think could eventually play in the NHL.  

Here is my guess of how he ranks them

Cozens

UPL

Samuelsson

Routsalainen

Johnson

Laaksonen

Pekar

Portillo

Bryson

Weissbach

Davidsson

Fitzgerald

Huglen

Rousek

Cronholm

Kukkonen

Cederqvist

Worge-Kreu 

I think our top 8 all play in the NHL eventually. Portillo is a goalie and likely has a long development curve but that has worked for Ullmark and Johansson and with UPL in the system we have time to wait for him. Pekar IMHO becomes a 3rd line agitator with 2-3 years.  The 3 D should become NHLers with Laaksonen the least likely, but they might end up in other organizations as trade bait to accomplish other goals. Right now I doubt the last 6 ever play in the NHL, but Huglen and Rousek have a chance.  

[shrader]

Without digging too deeply into it, I'd imagine that you might have something like 5 top teams, 5 bottom teams, and then a giant muddled mess in the middle.  Good luck to someone who seriously tries to rank all of that.

[Weave]

43 minutes ago, shrader said:

Without digging too deeply into it, I'd imagine that you might have something like 5 top teams, 5 bottom teams, and then a giant muddled mess in the middle.  Good luck to someone who seriously tries to rank all of that.

Yeah you can’t take those lists seriously.

58 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

I think our top 8 all play in the NHL eventually.

And you wonder why you were accused of irrational exuberance.  Lol

[shrader]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

And you wonder why you were accused of irrational exuberance.  Lol

It's not really that outlandish of a statement.  Even recent late round hail mary draft picks like Brady Austin manage to get 5 NHL games on their resume.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Yeah you can’t take those lists seriously.

And you wonder why you were accused of irrational exuberance.  Lol

 

18 minutes ago, shrader said:

It's not really that outlandish of a statement.  Even recent late round hail mary draft picks like Brady Austin manage to get 5 NHL games on their resume.

I didn’t say top 6 forwards, or NHL standouts, I said play in the NHL eventually.  That means they may becomes stars or long-term players but that also means there will be some AAAA players or guys that get just a cup of coffee.  Consider I listed 18 players, is asking 8 of them to eventually make the NHL to outlandish?

That said I have no doubt that Cozens, Pekar, UPL and Samuelsson will become NHL regulars.  The next 4, Routsalainen, Johnson, Laaksonen and Portillo have given significant indications that they are developing toward an NHL career such as playing well in International Tournaments or playing well in elite leagues around the world at a young age.  We’ll get a better idea about Laaksonen, Davidsson, Samuelsson, Pekar and Routsalainen when they join the Amerks next season. Portillo and Johnson will continue in college.

Edited January 27, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

Samuelsson doesn't impress me enough to rank him 3rd on our list of prospects and even if he becomes an NHL regularly I doubt how good he will be. 

[Weave]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

I didn’t say top 6 forwards, or NHL standouts, I said play in the NHL eventually.  That means they may becomes stars or long-term players but that also means there will be some AAAA players or guys that get just a cup of coffee.  Consider I listed 18 players, is asking 8 of them to eventually make the NHL to outlandish?

That said I have no doubt that Cozens, Pekar, UPL and Samuelsson will become NHL regulars.  The next 4, Routsalainen, Johnson, Laaksonen and Portillo have given significant indications that they are developing toward an NHL career such as playing well in International Tournaments or playing well in elite leagues around the world at a young age.  We’ll get a better idea about Laaksonen, Davidsson, Samuelsson, Pekar and Routsalainen when they join the Amerks next season. Portillo and Johnson will continue in college.

Mid to late 1st round picks are 50% to see NHL careers.  2nd rounders are 25%.  3rd rounders and later are under 15%.  Unless you are referring to a cup of coffee in the bigs as Shrader suggested, it is irrational to expect 8 players in an organization at one slice in time to see the show.

[GASabresIUFAN]

38 minutes ago, Weave said:

Mid to late 1st round picks are 50% to see NHL careers.  2nd rounders are 25%.  3rd rounders and later are under 15%.  Unless you are referring to a cup of coffee in the bigs as Shrader suggested, it is irrational to expect 8 players in an organization at one slice in time to see the show.

Ist rd picks according to Scott Cullen's research while he was at TSN has picks 6-10 averaging at 74% having NHL careers.  Picks 11-30 are about 60%, except picks 21-25 which hit at a surprising 72%. Picks 31-75 range from 26-32% depending on where selected.

The overall math says we should get 5 regular players out of the current draftees in our system.

From 2009-2013, they following % of players according to Hockeydb.com have appeared in the NHL from each draft, 55.2, 50.5, 59.2, 51.2, & 48.3.  I've stopped at 2014 because players from that draft are still debuting in the NHL like Victor Olofsson and probably Jonas Johansson later this year and that year stands currently at 41%.

With the math saying if we were just average drafters we should get 5 regulars from the 18 prospects listed above and based on historical numbers about 50% of those prospect should make an appearance in the NHL.  I said 4 regulars in Cozens, UPL, Pekar and Samuelsson and 4 guys l think have a good shot in Routsalainen, Johnson, Laaksonen and Portillo.  Those predictions are just slight below historical average drafting stats.

I also didn't say that all 8 will make the NHL at the same time.  Portillo for example is a young raw but talented goalie.  It has taken Johansson 4 plus seasons to establish himself as a legit goaltending prospect with a chance at getting a callup in year 5.  It took Ullmark 6 seasons post draft to make the NHL.  

Edited January 27, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Weave]

Not at the same time in the NHL, from the same slice of time In our prospect pool.

And yes, your numbers are attainable if you are counting cups of coffee in the show.  That makes Luke Adam a successful pick.  I wouldn’t want to try to limbo under that bar.

[Curt]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Samuelsson doesn't impress me enough to rank him 3rd on our list of prospects and even if he becomes an NHL regularly I doubt how good he will be. 

I agree on Samuelsson.  

I feel confident that he will play NHL games because he is big (6’4” 220) strong, mean, and has NHL bloodlines.  He will probably be at least a good AHL player that spends some time as a 5th/6th/7th/8th D on some teams.

No doubt he will be good in the corners and in front of the net, but I question his upside.  I think that his skating/mobility will in large part determine how impactful he can be at the NHL level.  Will he be nimble enough to defend in space?  Or will he be a pillar that gets consistently beat be quick players?

I think Samuelsson is an interesting contrast to Ryan Johnson.  Also a mostly defensive defenseman, but in a much more modern mold.  Johnson is not big (6’1” 175), but is a feisty guy.  He is a very good skater and puck handler.  He should develop into a very good defender in space who can also use his quick feet and hands to evade an aggressive forecheck, although not as good in the corners and net front as a Samuelsson type.   

I just think it’s interesting.  These two guys drafted in back to back years, in the same range, by the same organization, both defensive defensemen in college, but with completely different skill sets.  It’s like new school vs old school defensive Dmen.

Edited January 27, 2020 by Curt

[tom webster]

There seems to be a lot of interesting math and a generous interpretation of just what a “regular” is going on here.

[LGR4GM]

21 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I see only 15/16 legit prospects in our pipeline, I’m now under the impression he sees more, which would be great news. Right now we have 21 players that would qualify for his list in general terms.  However I doubt he ranks Mittelstadt, Thompson and Asplund do to their NHL experience although Asplund, who is back in the AHL could be ranked.  Jokiharju would have also qualified before the season started but is now an NHL fixture.  Borgen and Johansson have also aged out of his list although I think both are still legit prospects. That leaves 18 players, not including Asplund, and only 14 of which I think could eventually play in the NHL.  

Here is my guess of how he ranks them

Cozens

UPL

Samuelsson

Routsalainen

Johnson

Laaksonen

Pekar

Portillo

Bryson

Weissbach

Davidsson

Fitzgerald

Huglen

Rousek

Cronholm

Kukkonen

Cederqvist

Worge-Kreu 

I think our top 8 all play in the NHL eventually. Portillo is a goalie and likely has a long development curve but that has worked for Ullmark and Johansson and with UPL in the system we have time to wait for him. Pekar IMHO becomes a 3rd line agitator with 2-3 years.  The 3 D should become NHLers with Laaksonen the least likely, but they might end up in other organizations as trade bait to accomplish other goals. Right now I doubt the last 6 ever play in the NHL, but Huglen and Rousek have a chance.  

I bolded the players that I think can actually impact the roster. That is what I consider important. Does this player have the potential for at least 1 year to force management into a roster decision of some kind. Are they going to have some type of impact on the team or if I replace them with literally anything, it won't matter. I came up with 5 who have that potential right now. There are 2-3 others that are on the bubble. The rest have a long shot of ever making it (100+ games). Out of those I see 1 good goalie, 1 good defender, 1 good forward. I see 2 other players that fit middle to bottom six roles. Anyone outside of the bolded who makes the team is a bonus but they have a long path ahead to do that. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

36 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I bolded the players that I think can actually impact the roster. That is what I consider important. Does this player have the potential for at least 1 year to force management into a roster decision of some kind. Are they going to have some type of impact on the team or if I replace them with literally anything, it won't matter. I came up with 5 who have that potential right now. There are 2-3 others that are on the bubble. The rest have a long shot of ever making it (100+ games). Out of those I see 1 good goalie, 1 good defender, 1 good forward. I see 2 other players that fit middle to bottom six roles. Anyone outside of the bolded who makes the team is a bonus but they have a long path ahead to do that. 

I don’t necessarily disagree. Portillo is a long way off, but the real wild card is Laaksonen.  He was a boom or bust draft pick and before this season was booming.  We’ll know more when he gets to Roch next year.  If he plays like he did last year when guys like Pronman were praising his development then we’ll have a real find.  

I do disagree on Samuelsson.  While he seems like a D from NHL 1990, I think he skates well enough to be a ying to a Pilut or Montour’s yang. He’ll be a good responsible D who adds a physical element especially on the PK which we sorely lack. There is a reason he continues to get selected for Team USA Squads.

I’m also concerned about Johnson’s lack of production in his first college season, but that could simply be lack of PT as a freshman.  

Edited January 28, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I do disagree on Samuelsson.  While he seems like a D from NHL 1990, I think he skates well enough to be a ying to a Pilut or Montour’s yang. He’ll be a good responsible D who adds a physical element especially on the PK which we sorely lack. There is a reason he continues to get selected for Team USA Squads.

I’m also concerned about Johnson’s lack of production in his first college season, but that could simply be lack of PT as a freshman.  

Samuelsson is going to grade out as a #6 defender. He shoots left so I guess that makes him Montour's partner and I have no desire to see Samuelsson for 18minutes a night 5v5 at NHL speed. I have a lot of doubts about him. 

I have 0 concerns for Johnson;s NCAA production. He's not only a freshmen but this is his 18yr old season. His late July birthday makes me far less worried. Meanwhile Samuelsson is producing at roughly the same and is a year older in the NCAA (17 games for Samuelsson versus 24 for Johnson). Samuelsson being a 1990 NHL defender makes me want to gag. If he isn't good at transitioning the puck out of the zone, he will fail. 

[LGR4GM]

Sabres prospect pool ranked 16th. 

https://theathletic.com/1560899/2020/01/28/wheelers-2020-nhl-prospect-pool-rankings-no-16-buffalo-sabres/?source=dailyemail

Quote

The problem the Sabres face with their prospect pool relative to the teams ahead of them is a problem depth, not of the strength of their top prospect. Most of the teams we’ll see in the days that follow boast pools that run upwards of 20 prospects deep. Buffalo’s doesn’t.

For the record, Samuelsson is ranked 8th on this list behind Johnson and Portillo. 

Edited January 28, 2020 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

Just want to add in this comment

Quote

Johnson was definitely a bit of a reach for my liking at the end of the first round and he hasn’t followed it up all that well either. But he has also been asked, on a team filled with lefties, to play his off-side, on a second pairing, as a true freshman.

Samuelsson, like Johnson, is a player I felt the Sabres reached on. I also expected more out of him at the world juniors, too. 

https://theathletic.com/1560899/2020/01/28/wheelers-2020-nhl-prospect-pool-rankings-no-16-buffalo-sabres/?source=dailyemail

Edited January 28, 2020 by LGR4GM