2019-20 Sabres Prospects

[Brawndo]

Per Randy Sexton, UPL will stay in Cincinnati until at least after Christmas. Their goal is to him get 16-18 Starts with the Cyclones then figure out what’s next

[Curt]

35 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It's more likely Pekar never becomes an NHL player than that he becomes a good 3rd line player. Not being negative, it's just the way these things usually go with 4th round picks. 

This may be true.  I personally feel very positive about him though.  I don’t think he is the typical 4th round pick who score at a high rate  as a junior overager.  I feel that he has the personality and mentality to bust his butt to get to the NHL and bust his butt to get better every chance he gets.  To me, he could be the kind of guy who keeps getting better and better and better.  Maybe starting off as a 4th line guy, but working his way into being a good middle six wing, or even better.

[GASabresIUFAN]

36 minutes ago, Curt said:

This may be true.  I personally feel very positive about him though.  I don’t think he is the typical 4th round pick who score at a high rate  as a junior overager.  I feel that he has the personality and mentality to bust his butt to get to the NHL and bust his butt to get better every chance he gets.  To me, he could be the kind of guy who keeps getting better and better and better.  Maybe starting off as a 4th line guy, but working his way into being a good middle six wing, or even better.

Remember folks Brad Marchand was a small annoying 3rd rd pick who played 2 more years in junior before going pro.  He also didn’t blow up until he was 27.

[Curt]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Remember folks Brad Marchand was a small annoying 3rd rd pick who played 2 more years in junior before going pro.  He also didn’t blow up until he was 27.

I understand the sentiment, and agree to an extent, but Marchand is a unique.  It’s true that he didn’t become a really high scorer until a little later in his career, but he was a top-6 Forward from his rookie season on.  His career arch and the type of game he plays makes him quite the unicorn.  It’s a tough comp for any player.  

Keeping that in mind, I totally see Pekar as someone who has a chance to be Marchand-lite.

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Remember folks Brad Marchand was a small annoying 3rd rd pick who played 2 more years in junior before going pro.  He also didn’t blow up until he was 27.

This post is a perfect microcosm for why punting season after season is a feasible strategy for the organization.

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, Curt said:

This may be true.  I personally feel very positive about him though.  I don’t think he is the typical 4th round pick who score at a high rate  as a junior overager.  I feel that he has the personality and mentality to bust his butt to get to the NHL and bust his butt to get better every chance he gets.  To me, he could be the kind of guy who keeps getting better and better and better.  Maybe starting off as a 4th line guy, but working his way into being a good middle six wing, or even better.

He certainly doesn't have top 6 upside, if that's what this is implying. 

[Curt]

Just now, Thorny said:

He certainly doesn't have top 6 upside, if that's what this is implying. 

Sure he does Thorny.  Anything is possible.  Sometimes players exceed expectations and surpass their assigned upside.

I’m not saying that’s what should be expected of him, or even that it’s at all likely.  I just really like the kid and feel like he is going to find a way to be a positive contributor in the NHL.

My feelings about him are definitely driven by gut instinct and hope, as opposed to rational analysis about what is most likely.  I’m letting myself have this one though.

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, Curt said:

Sure he does Thorny.  Anything is possible.  Sometimes players exceed expectations and surpass their assigned upside.

I’m not saying that’s what should be expected of him, or even that it’s at all likely.  I just really like the kid and feel like he is going to find a way to be a positive contributor in the NHL.

My feelings about him are definitely driven by gut instinct and hope, as opposed to rational analysis about what is most likely.  I’m letting myself have this one though.

If that's the argument, then sure, I agree I guess. 

[sabremike]

On 11/20/2019 at 5:06 PM, freester said:

It doesn’t but we need forwards in the pipeline 

Good thing the leading goal scorer in the OHL right now wasn't available with that 31st pick this past June and we ended up taking a defenseman with no offensive upside. If that had happened it would be real embarrassing...

[Curt]

31 minutes ago, Thorny said:

If that's the argument, then sure, I agree I guess. 

Haha, there are a lot of very good NHLers who didn’t come up with impressive pedigrees.  Guys who no one would have assigned a high upside when they were 20.  

Marchand, Stone, Panarin, Gaudreau, Giordano, Dadonov, Hoffman, Atkinson, Pavelski, Yandle, Nyquist, Marchessault, Dzingle, Leblanc, Letang, Athanasiou, Benn, Krug, Gallagher.

Thats just players who were drafted 3rd round or later and were top 100 in NHL scoring last season.  That’s about 20% of the leagues top 100 producers coming from the 3rd round or later.  

It’s not some freak occurrence that a player exceeds expectations.  It happens sometimes.  And I see Pekar as someone more likely than most to do just that.  I’m not even daring to hope that Pekar will be as good as most of the players I just listed.

Edited November 22, 2019 by Curt

[Thorner]

12 minutes ago, Curt said:

Haha, there are a lot of very good NHLers who didn’t come up with impressive pedigrees.  Guys who no one would have assigned a high upside when they were 20.  

Marchand, Stone, Panarin, Gaudreau, Giordano, Dadonov, Hoffman, Atkinson, Pavelski, Yandle, Nyquist, Marchessault, Dzingle, Leblanc, Letang, Athanasiou, Benn, Krug, Gallagher.

Thats just players who were drafted 3rd round or later and were top 100 in NHL scoring last season.  That’s about 20% of the leagues top 100 producers coming from the 3rd round or later.  

It’s not some freak occurrence that a player exceeds expectations.  It happens sometimes.  And I see Pekar as someone more likely than most to do just that.  I’m not even daring to hope that Pekar will be as good as most of the players I just listed.

The percentage of players in the league that are 3rd round or later? 

How about the percentage of 3rd round or later players that establish as top 6 players. That's the stat. 

To the bolded, simply becoming a mainstay NHLer is drastically outperforming expectations, and the percentages, for Pekar. 

Edited November 22, 2019 by Thorny

[Curt]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The percentage of players in the league that are 3rd round or later? 

How about the percentage of 3rd round or later players that establish as top 6 players. That's the stat. 

I don’t know.  I would guess it’s around 5% of 3rd/4th round picks.

[PerreaultForever]

I still hope for Pekar. He might not turn out to be a top player by any stretch, but we desperately need grit and pain in the ass to play against type guys. I think he can be that. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

This post is a perfect microcosm for why punting season after season is a feasible strategy for the organization.

Why does comparing a later prospect to Marchand have anything to do with punting this season or any other.  All I'm saying is that Pekar is a legit prospect with a chance to do something in the NHL nothing more and nothing less.  Frankly his attitude, effort and pesky play is something this team could sorely use.  

[freester]

7 hours ago, sabremike said:

Good thing the leading goal scorer in the OHL right now wasn't available with that 31st pick this past June and we ended up taking a defenseman with no offensive upside. If that had happened it would be real embarrassing...

Did that happen?

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, freester said:

Did that happen?

Arthur Kaliyev 

[Zamboni]

Good grief. You can point to every GM on every team in every year, that didn’t “hit” on all draft picks. It’s nothing new or worth pointing out like it’s a sign of anything unique. Yawn.

[GASabresIUFAN]

It’s funny but people here argue all the time for BPA drafting and as if there is some magically universally agreed upon list of players. However some of these same people get pissed when a GM grabs another D over a scoring winger.

I don’t believe in BPA except at the top of the 1st rd.  After that they player grades are so close, I think GMs should use need as a deciding factor.  For example does our pipeline need more D or more centers or more wingers? Etc.  

I believe that Jbot and his team use BPA based on the list they created.  No other way to explain drafting Laaksonen in the 3rd rd when many teams didn’t even have him on their draft boards.  

As to taking Johnson over Kaliyev, I would have taken Kaliyev based on the board I created before the draft, but obviously there was something Jbot and his team didn’t like and passed on him in favor of another LHD good skating D.
 

I don’t have any issue with the choice.  As I charted earlier in this thread, the 18 year old Johnson and 19 year old Samuelsson are 5-8 years younger then then most of guys ahead of them on the depth chart.  By the time they are NHL ready we are going to need them.  I’m also willing to give Jbot and his scouts the benefit off the doubt as Imho he has done a much better job of drafting the last few years then TM and DR but only time will really tell if this impression is accurate. 

[freester]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It’s funny but people here argue all the time for BPA drafting and as if there is some magically universally agreed upon list of players. However some of these same people get pissed when a GM grabs another D over a scoring winger.

I don’t believe in BPA except at the top of the 1st rd.  After that they player grades are so close, I think GMs should use need as a deciding factor.  For example does our pipeline need more D or more centers or more wingers? Etc.  

I believe that Jbot and his team use BPA based on the list they created.  No other way to explain drafting Laaksonen in the 3rd rd when many teams didn’t even have him on their draft boards.  

As to taking Johnson over Kaliyev, I would have taken Kaliyev based on the board I created before the draft, but obviously there was something Jbot and his team didn’t like and passed on him in favor of another LHD good skating D.
 

I don’t have any issue with the choice.  As I charted earlier in this thread, the 18 year old Johnson and 19 year old Samuelsson are 5-8 years younger then then most of guys ahead of them on the depth chart.  By the time they are NHL ready we are going to need them.  I’m also willing to give Jbot and his scouts the benefit off the doubt as Imho he has done a much better job of drafting the last few years then TM and DR but only time will really tell if this impression is accurate. 

What is your evidence for saying that Botteril has done a good job drafting?  Is it the amazing development of Mitts? The surprising pick of Dahlin?

[Zamboni]

2 minutes ago, freester said:

What is your evidence for saying that Botteril has done a good job drafting?  Is it the amazing development of Mitts? The surprising pick of Dahlin?

That’s a good question.

Another good question is, Since he’s been the GM of the Sabres, can anyone list which GM (since May of 2017) have a better “hit rate” and “miss rate”. 
Without doing the digging, I would take a crazy wild guess, and guess he’s pretty average. He’s not terrible. He’s not amazing. Anyone want to take that task on?

[Doohicksie]

17 hours ago, Curt said:

This may be true.  I personally feel very positive about him though.  I don’t think he is the typical 4th round pick who score at a high rate  as a junior overager.  I feel that he has the personality and mentality to bust his butt to get to the NHL and bust his butt to get better every chance he gets.  To me, he could be the kind of guy who keeps getting better and better and better.  Maybe starting off as a 4th line guy, but working his way into being a good middle six wing, or even better.

You're describing Justin Abdelkader.  That's not a bad thing.

[triumph_communes]

Don't understand what this crazy strong 'need' for top-6 players is when we already will have:  Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Mittelstadt, and Cozens locked up for the next decade.  That's room for one top-6 player.  And that's assuming guys like Tage can't fill that role in a year or two.

 

We need solid 3rd liners, and that's what Asplund and Pekar are.  We need a solid goalie, and we have 6K in the ranks.  We need defenders even sooner since only Dahlin+Joki are long-term locks, and we have a handful of them.  I don't get how anyone can look at our pipeline and be stressed.  I think its just impatience.  Rome wasn't built in a day, and Murray did Botterill almost no favors building up a propsect pool.  Ok cool, he got us 3rd liner Asplund and 3rd liner PP specialist Olofsson with a 7th round gamble.  Otherwise he traded all his lottery tickets away and picked a lot of the wrong guys, especially with all the 2nd round picks that amounted to nothing in the end.

Edited November 22, 2019 by triumph_communes

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Don't understand what this crazy strong 'need' for top-6 players is when we already will have:  Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Mittelstadt, and Cozens locked up for the next decade.  That's room for one top-6 player.  And that's assuming guys like Tage can't fill that role in a year or two.

 

We need solid 3rd liners, and that's what Asplund and Pekar are.  We need a solid goalie, and we have 6K in the ranks.  We need defenders even sooner since only Dahlin+Joki are long-term locks, and we have a handful of them.  I don't get how anyone can look at our pipeline and be stressed.  I think its just impatience.  Rome wasn't built in a day, and Murray did Botterill almost no favors building up a propsect pool.  Ok cool, he got us 3rd liner Asplund and 3rd liner PP specialist Olofsson with a 7th round gamble.  Otherwise he traded all his lottery tickets away and picked a lot of the wrong guys, especially with all the 2nd round picks that amounted to nothing in the end.

Lol this post is filled with contradictions and bad conclusions. 

What if mittelstadt is a 3rd line. You now need 2 top 6 players of Cozens hits. There's no one in the pipe for that. 

Your assessment of only joki and Dahlin as long term locks ignores Millers contract. Montour being an rfa. The depth in Rochester. 

This idea we have enough forwards isn't reality. 

[LGR4GM]

37 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Don't understand what this crazy strong 'need' for top-6 players is when 1 )we already will have:  Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Mittelstadt, and Cozens locked up for the next decade.  That's room for one top-6 player.  2) And that's assuming guys like Tage can't fill that role in a year or two.

 

3) We need solid 3rd liners, and that's what Asplund and Pekar are.  We need a solid goalie, and we have 6K in the ranks. 4)  We need defenders even sooner since only Dahlin+Joki are long-term locks, and we have a handful of them.  5) I don't get how anyone can look at our pipeline and be stressed.  I think its just impatience.  Rome wasn't built in a day, and 6) Murray did Botterill almost no favors building up a propsect pool.  Ok cool, he got us 3rd liner Asplund and 3rd liner PP specialist Olofsson with a 7th round gamble.  Otherwise he traded all his lottery tickets away and picked a lot of the wrong guys, especially with all the 2nd round picks that amounted to nothing in the end.

Let me spend the next few minutes on this... 

1) Actually Reinhart isn't locked up at all and neither for that matter is Mittelstadt. In addition Mittlestadt to date has not shown he can be a top 6 player. So that is a big leap. Further Cozens has not shown he is a top 6 player if either of those 2 guys fall below that expectation everything else you lay out falls to pieces. 

2) Tage might sure but let's say he doesn't. Who is up next? In this very real scenario Mitts and Tage are bottom 6 players. So you now have only 4 top 6 players on your roster or in your prospect pool. Let's continue though. 

3) I would agree that Asplund appears to be headed for 3rd line status and that Pekar has the potential for that although like Tage we don't know. 

4) This is my favorite sentence because of how contradictory it is by not only reality but how you wrote it. First Dahlin, Jokiharju, Montour, Miller all have contracts going forward or are RFA's and are younger. So I just listed 4 defenders going forward. Second at the beginning you say "We need defenders even sooner..." we just put Gilmour on waivers because we have so many NHL level defenders on this team. The best part is you end the sentence with "and we have a handful of them." So which it is it? We need them or we have a handful? 

5) How can anyone look at the pipeline and be stressed? Ok I will take this. Name 4 players in the pipeline that have top 6 potential. We have Cozens. Hell I will give you Tage. That's it. There aren't any hidden offensive gems right now. Now for fun, and I mean FUN!, let's do the defense. Not currently playing in Buffalo you have Laaksonen, Borgen, Johnson, Samuelsson, Pilut, maybe fitzgerald. There's 6 total defenders but 12 forward spots. So even if you have an extra top 6 forward all that does is make your bottom 6 better because one of those top 6 guys has to play there.

6) Just like a guy named Gym you took the time to prove my point for me. Murray didn't do Botterill any favors and only managed to get us Olofsson and Asplund and yet you are arguing our prospect pool at forward isn't f####d? I mean you yourself lay the ground work for why it is. Anyone coming to the conclusion that the forward part of our prospect pool isn't bad isn't paying attention to the Sabres pro team or who and how we have drafted especially in the last 3 years. 

Since Jason Botterill became GM the Sabres have drafted 18 players. 8 forwards, 8 defenders, and 2 goalies. Again there are 12 forward slots and 6 defense slots. A little bit concerning since Murray left the cupboards empty and we have barely addressed the lack of forwards of high quality in our pool. 

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

Don't understand what this crazy strong 'need' for top-6 players is when we already will have:  Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Mittelstadt, and Cozens locked up for the next decade.  That's room for one top-6 player.  And that's assuming guys like Tage can't fill that role in a year or two.

No.

When I look at Mitts, I think "bust" and "a nail in JB's coffin." 

It's too soon for those to be fair evaluations on my part, but I think a bad outcome at this point is more likely than Mitts developing into a top-6 player.