Overall Draft thoughts

[GASabresIUFAN]

54 minutes ago, grinreaper said:

By trading away vets that would have helped the Sabres stay out of the bottom.

I think you mean trading away vets for picks and prospect. 

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

There is a difference between the quality of the picks that were traded when comparing GMTM and Botterill. 

GMTM traded 2 Firsts and 3 Seconds, compared to a Second, 3 Thirds(One which was swapped for a Fourth), a Fourth and a Fifth under Botterill. 

Granted with the exception of Skinner, the quality of players that came back in GMTMs Trades was much higher.

The questions remains were those moves made by GMTM the appropriate ones, given the lack of depth in the prospect pool. Would the better course have been to make the ROR Deal and keep the other two picks in the Top 31 in 2015? Or the trading of two seconds and McNabb for Fasching and DLo? 

Botterill’s Trading of Late Round Picks to move up for targeted players is a risky proposition. Based on Sean Tierney’s Expected Value, it’s better to use all the picks and have more chances to hit on a player. 

I guess this is where The Scouting Staff earns its money and more importantly it’s reputation. 

Red are the picks that Murray made, and blue are the picks that Jason made. I just don't buy the narrative (not saying I've seen it here since I haven't been here, but it's prevalent in the Sabres fan base) that Murray ruined the rebuild by trading all of our picks, and Jason is "doing it the right way." Murray made more picks, more higher picks, while still acquiring a Selke caliber player and a thirty goal scorer via trade, so that he improved the team 27 points, and hit two seasons of standings results Jason has yet to see. 

Now we have fewer draft picks and thus fewer prospects, and a worse pro roster, and worse pro results. 

This is not a claim that Murray's drafts were better - we won't know that for years until we see what happens to Jason's picks. It's also not a claim that he shouldn't have been fired. He should have, which is why I'm perpetually uncomfortable about the current state of the franchise.

I guess my point is, Jason deserves heat and shouldn't get any excuses for any aspect of this team

Edited June 23, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[rakish]

I'll grade it in 5 years, this is what others thought at the time of the draft to give it context then:

Sabres: Cozens/Ryan Johnson/Portillo/Huglen/Cederqvist/Lukas Rousek
rakish: Newhook/Kaliyev/Beaucage/Shalagin/Cederqvist/Massimo Rizzo
@LGR4GM: Zegras/Kaliyev/Cajkovic/Filip Koffer/Blake Murray/xxxxxx
McKenzie: Cozens/Lavoie/Nikolayev/Tepley/Judd Caufield/Marshall Warren
Pronman: Cole Caufield/Kaliyev/Patrik Puistola/Dmitri Voronkov/Daniil Gutik***/Michael Gildon***
Button: Cole Caufield/Kaliyev/Ilya Nikolaev/Marshall Warren/Kirill Slepets/Taylor Gauthier***
Wheeler: Cozens/Kaliyev/Pavel Dorofeyev/Mikhail Abramov/Dustin Wolf/Billy Constantinou***

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by rakish
forgot to alert liger

[Derrico]

9 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

It doesn't really bother me, but Tim Murray "blew through all of our picks/prospects with dumb trades" according to some

GMTM and GMJB each have 3 drafts and Murray made 7 more picks in that span

He also inherited a million picks from DR did he not? 

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, Derrico said:

He also inherited a million picks from DR did he not? 

Yes, but that's not the narrative I'm attacking.

And he used them to acquire guys who are good/great pieces on good/great teams. 

See above post for more fleshing out

[Derrico]

3 hours ago, nucci said:

another draft with potential....don't we hear this every year?

I’m not sure what else you or a fan of any franchise would prefer to hear the day after the draft.  

[Trettioåtta]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

Yes, but that's not the narrative I'm attacking.

And he used them to acquire guys who are good/great pieces on good/great teams. 

See above post for more fleshing out

Just because he used some of the picks to get good players, doesn't disprove that he also wasted a lot of potential/picks.

I have 20 picks and trade 7 for magic beans, 3 for a good player and pick 10 players

You have 10 picks, trade 1 for a mediocre player and pick 9 players

[Derrico]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Yes, but that's not the narrative I'm attacking.

And he used them to acquire guys who are good/great pieces on good/great teams. 

See above post for more fleshing out

Fair.  I’m not sure the sentiment is TM trading away the picks.  It’s who he traded them for.  Interesting the Lehner situation but many think you can find a good goalie without the first round pick and guys like (blues goalie) happen regularly.  

Cant speak for others but I was fine trading the picks but the guys acquired for them didn’t really work out for one reason or another.  

My personal big gripe with TM was the lack of communication between himself and players /coaching.  It sounds like there were real communication issues between his coach and players.  In the business world you are the top you.  project manager if you will.  If there’s a rif and communication problems between coach and players that’s just as much on TM.  His job is to intervene before it blew up to the level it did.

My other issue is he was lauded for his drafting but overall I feel he missed on way too many high picks (nylander, 3 second rounders) etc.

[dudacek]

Murray is underrated in his eye for talent.

He was justifiably fired for his inability to manage people and run an organization.

I remain fearful Botterill is the opposite.

[Randall Flagg]

10 minutes ago, Trettioåtta said:

Just because he used some of the picks to get good players, doesn't disprove that he also wasted a lot of potential/picks.

I have 20 picks and trade 7 for magic beans, 3 for a good player and pick 10 players

You have 10 picks, trade 1 for a mediocre player and pick 9 players

I'll reiterate the point I'm trying to make - Tim did not ruin a rebuild by squandering a bunch of picks, given that he made 4 more picks than an average team does in that span. If he did, then Jason is doing even worse "rebuilding with picks" which hasn't ever been mentioned by anyone, since he also trades picks AND has taken an average of 2+ picks fewer per draft than Tim, and they are lower selections than Tim made.

I'm not trying to give everything Tim did a passing grade, far from it - but that's one narrative i'm not interested in. No GM was ever going to make all of those draft picks, as you can only have so many contracts in your organization at once. That was the whole point of getting a bunch of them - to make draft picks AND use them in trades for players. Considering our whole problem the last four years has been NHL depth, not doing so would have been even more crippling. 

 

9 minutes ago, Derrico said:

Fair.  I’m not sure the sentiment is TM trading away the picks.  It’s who he traded them for.  Interesting the Lehner situation but many think you can find a good goalie without the first round pick and guys like (blues goalie) happen regularly.  

Cant speak for others but I was fine trading the picks but the guys acquired for them didn’t really work out for one reason or another.  

My personal big gripe with TM was the lack of communication between himself and players /coaching.  It sounds like there were real communication issues between his coach and players.  In the business world you are the top you.  project manager if you will.  If there’s a rif and communication problems between coach and players that’s just as much on TM.  His job is to intervene before it blew up to the level it did.

 My other issue is he was lauded for his drafting but overall I feel he missed on way too many high picks (nylander, 3 second rounders) etc.

Completely agree that Murray was a mess on the "managing" side of things, which is why I agree with the decision to fire him. I just think I'm more scared about the current situation than anyone else 

[nucci]

32 minutes ago, Derrico said:

I’m not sure what else you or a fan of any franchise would prefer to hear the day after the draft.  

It's fine...but I'm guessing every team is telling their fans this. I just find it funny

[grinreaper]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think you mean trading away vets for picks and prospect. 

It goes without saying, but now you made me say it, dammit.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

3 hours ago, nucci said:

You guys know more than me but there are some good write ups on Cozens

You are not giving yourself enough credit.  You know as much as anybody, except the few regular posters who really keep up on all this stuff.

For example, I know nothing atol and would know even less than that if I didn't skim SabreSpace for tidbits of info.

[Cheektorado]

15 hours ago, Pimlach said:

What if ... the NHL changed the minimum draft age to 19?  

Would drafts be more impactful and would it make it easier to build a bottom feeder into a playoff team?  

While I don't know all the specifics as to why it remains so young, I agree with you.

It seems to me that 1 extra year lets the draftees stabilize some before being drafted.

Also the fact that a college draftee becomes a FA 30 days after graduating seems ridiculous.

[GASabresIUFAN]

From Rotoworld (via Yahoo) https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl-draft-grades-east-032503176.html

Buffalo Sabres

Grade: B

First Round Selection(s): Dylan Cozens (7th) and Ryan Johnson (31st)

Buffalo selected Cozens with the team’s first pick in the 2019 NHL Draft at the seventh overall spot and they snagged Johnson with the final choice of the opening round for a productive Friday night.  Cozens is very close to being NHL-ready, but Johnson may take some more time to develop.  Cozens has great speed and he makes plenty of plays because of it.  Johnson is also a very good skater and he moves the puck well, but his offensive game needs work.  Still, these are two prospects who can help Buffalo push the pace and attack offensively when they make the jump to the big league.  

The Sabres added another goalie for their pipeline in the third round of the draft with the selection of Erik Portillo.  The team has a great prospect in Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who will probably play for Rochester next season once he recovers from hip surgery.  Buffalo expects to see Portillo compete in the USHL next year before heading to the University of Michigan.

Buffalo also moved up in the draft to choose Aaron Huglen (102nd) and Filip Cederqvist (143rd).   Huglen, who plays with plenty of speed, will join first-round pick Johnson at the University Minnesota next season.

From Last Word on Hockey https://lastwordonhockey.com/2019/06/23/2019-nhl-draft-grades-lwoh/

Buffalo Sabres: B

Picks: Dylan Cozens, Ryan Johnson, Erik Portillo, Aaron Huglen, Filip Cederqvist, Lukas Rousek,
Value: Cozens

The Sabres were pleased to see Cozens fall into their laps. He is a pure goal scorer. He has an excellent wrist shot and a quick release as well as the soft hands to finish in close. Cozens can also be a playmaker. On the blueline, Johnson is an outstanding skater. His first few steps and acceleration are close to an elite level of this draft class. Portillo is a big goaltender coming in at 6’6″. He plays deep in his crease and can be very tough to beat down low. Huglen is extremely skilled, with outstanding hands and the ability to make defenders and goalies look silly. Cederqvist in another goal scorer with a heavy and accurate wrist shot off the wing. Rousek is a 20-year-old who has been passed over in two previous drafts.

[Broken Ankles]

2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'll reiterate the point I'm trying to make - Tim did not ruin a rebuild by squandering a bunch of picks, given that he made 4 more picks than an average team does in that span. If he did, then Jason is doing even worse "rebuilding with picks" which hasn't ever been mentioned by anyone, since he also trades picks AND has taken an average of 2+ picks fewer per draft than Tim, and they are lower selections than Tim made.

 I'm not trying to give everything Tim did a passing grade, far from it - but that's one narrative i'm not interested in. No GM was ever going to make all of those draft picks, as you can only have so many contracts in your organization at once. That was the whole point of getting a bunch of them - to make draft picks AND use them in trades for players. Considering our whole problem the last four years has been NHL depth, not doing so would have been even more crippling. 
 

  Looking at just future draft selections, or total selections comparatively does not tell the whole story.   Include the prospects given up in those trades, and the net return by round including trades.  Example - TM acquiring  two second round draft picks for Moulson and McCormick, or trading prospects like  Zadorov, Compher, Mcnabb, Lemieux, Armia , etc.   When  you factor those into the NET pick up, TM has a -8 between first and second round (which are really the only ones that matter).    This compared to JB who while trading two prospects (Guhle/Poo), manages to net to zero when looking at the first two rounds.  My biggest criticism of Murray was his decision to trade 3 picks in the top 31 of the 2015 Draft which was assumed to be the best crop of talent in decades, and has proven as such.    I assumed JB was going to keep  #31 overall this year and he did.   With a pool of talent much more shallow than 2015.   Murray had 4 picks in the top 31 of that draft and traded 3 keeping Jack.   Botterill had 3 in the top 31 this year and traded 1.   This approach is much more prudent.  

 

[Hoss]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

Murray is underrated in his eye for talent.

He was justifiably fired for his inability to manage people and run an organization.

I remain fearful Botterill is the opposite.

Murray was always that gym rat who was good at drafting. I'm hoping we'll be thanking him in a few years.

[Thorner]

Cozens honestly sounds exactly like what this team needs, should he develop to his potential. We can never say exactly what will happen with such young players, but we are sitting in a situation where, if Mittelstadt and Cozens are developed properly and reach their ceilings or even close to, we could be looking at a top C spine in the league in Eichel-Cozens-Mittelstadt. That could be elite centre depth. It's basically a legit star 1C, with 2 players (with top-line talent) capable of splitting the 2/3C roles, Cozens probably getting the tougher matchups and Casey getting somewhat sheltered minutes. 

That Manny Elk guy on twitter who absolutely rips the Sabres whenever he gets a chance, has demonstrated pretty accurate projection models, and he had Cozens ranked as his 4th best skater (and 3rd forward) in the draft. 

Love the Cozens pick. 

After that, I don't have much of an opinion on the prospects selected other than to say it looks like through aggressive trading up Botterill was able to snag a couple guys projected higher than where we selected them. It's hard to outright doubt the others selected after our first pick, looking at the early returns of Botterill's previous 2 drafts.

A.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 hours ago, Hoss said:

Murray was always that gym rat who was good at drafting. I'm hoping we'll be thanking him in a few years.

Good at drafting?  Based on what evidence? He has two full time NHL players to his credit.  2.  They are Jack and Sam and you and I could have made those picks.  However, he really missed on Sam as he is probably the 5 or 6 best player from his draft year instead of the second.

Olofsson and Lemieux (NYR) may be his 3rd and 4th players, but of course he traded Lemieux away before he could help us. Borgen and Asplund are also his, thankfully he isn’t here to trade them away.  Also don’t forget that while Nylander May eventually become an NHL player, TM blew the 8th overall pick.  Then next two picks, Sergachev and Jost are both better players add Chychrun and McAvoy drafted a bit later, 3 of which were D we needed at the time, and it pretty clear that TM wasn’t all the good at drafting either or team building or cap management or asset management or anything that has to do with running an NHL franchise.

Edited June 24, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[Hoss]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Good at drafting?  Based on what evidence? He has two full time NHL players to his credit.  2.  They are Jack and Sam and you and I could have made those picks.  However, he really missed on Sam as he is probably the 5 or 6 best player from his draft year instead of the second.

Olofsson and Lemieux (NYR) may be his 3rd and 4th players, but of course he traded Lemieux away before he could help us. Borgen and Asplund are also his, thankfully he isn’t here to trade them away.  Also don’t forget that while Nylander May eventually become an NHL player, TM blew the 8th overall pick.  Then next two picks, Sergachev and Jost are both better players add Chychrun and McAvoy drafted a but later, 3 of which were D we needed at the time, and it pretty clear that TM wasn’t all the good at drafting either or team building or cap management or asset management or anything that has to do with running an NHL franchise.

He was credited with several successful picks in Anaheim and Ottawa.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Hoss said:

He was credited with several successful picks in Anaheim and Ottawa.

And how does this help us? It help get him hired but he failed us in so many ways.

[Hoss]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

And how does this help us? It help get him hired but he failed us in so many ways.

Not sure he failed us in the draft yet. Several of his picks are still working through the pipeline.

Nylander, Asplund, Borgen and Olofsson all have legitimate NHL shots.

Pu was a big part of getting Skinner here. Some of his other picks were also used in trades. And there's a few others still in the system that are NHL longshots but could pan out.

Tim Murray's story is not done.

[Broken Ankles]

31 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Not sure he failed us in the draft yet. Several of his picks are still working through the pipeline.

Nylander, Asplund, Borgen and Olofsson all have legitimate NHL shots.

Pu was a big part of getting Skinner here. Some of his other picks were also used in trades. And there's a few others still in the system that are NHL longshots but could pan out.

Tim Murray's story is not done.

Question.  If his evaluation of talent is so superior why has no team hired him?  Even Darcy landed an Assistant GM position and his last 5 drafts were horrendous. 

[Weave]

Just now, Broken Ankles said:

Question.  If his evaluation of talent is so superior why has no team hired him?  Even Darcy landed an Assistant GM position and his last 5 drafts were horrendous. 

Calling the female owner of the team the queen mother of all bad things you can call a female may be a contributing factor.  He may have branded himself a personality you don't want in a professional organization.

Allegedly.

[Hoss]

2 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Question.  If his evaluation of talent is so superior why has no team hired him?  Even Darcy landed an Assistant GM position and his last 5 drafts were horrendous. 

My guess: Tim Murray doesn't feel like working. If he wanted a job evaluating talent in the NHL he'd have one.