Everything about the 2020-2021 Sabres. Will they finally be good by then?

[Derrico]

19 hours ago, Taro T said:

 That isn't the only way forward.  There supposedly are guys like Statsny on the market.  His 2 remaining years would fill the Sabres need for a 2C until Mittelstadt is ready for that role.  That would also allow Cozens to start on wing next season if they wanted to ease him into the NHL. 

This really should be the plan moving forward.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

33 minutes ago, jad1 said:

Okay, I see the 2014 post, which states the overall games played by draft picks where Buffalo ranks 2nd, but that's not good enough because there are not enough games played by players picked in rounds 2 - 7 after 2014?

And the definition of prospect does not include draftees?

And Boston and Tampa are successful because they have a few players who meet this criteria?

 

 

All draftees are prospects until the age out, graduate to the NHL, or are cut, traded or otherwise leave the organization. However not all prospects are draftees. College and Euro UFAs for example are prospects but not draftees.

The vast majority of players who enter the NHL come through the draft and it’s incumbent on teams, especially small market teams in the cap era to draft well. 1st rd picks are supposed to make the team and make an impact, but the teams like TB and Boston that consistently find top 9 F and top 4 D outside the first round are typically deeper and better teams.  Think of it this way.  If you are trying to build a roster through the draft in would take 22 years to build if you relied on only 1st rd picks.  

In Buffalo’s case, 8 core players on the 05 and 06 teams were drafted by the Sabres in the 2nd rd or later.  Today, not including Pommers we have one - McCabe.

Edited June 25, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[jad1]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

All draftees are prospects until the age out, graduate to the NHL, or are cut, traded or otherwise leave the organization. However not all prospects are draftees. College and Euro UFAs for example are prospects but not draftees.

The vast majority of players who enter the NHL come through the draft and it’s incumbent on teams, especially small market teams in the cap era to draft well. 1st rd picks are supposed to make the team and make an impact, but the teams like TB and Boston that consistently find top 9 F and top 4 D outside the first round are typically deeper and better teams.  Think of it this way.  If you are trying to build a roster through the draft in would take 22 years to build if you relied on only 1st rd picks.  

In Buffalo’s case, 8 core players on the 05 and 06 teams were drafted by the Sabres in the 2nd rd or later.  Today, not including Pommers we have one - McCabe.

Ok, thanks for that. 

Tampa has picked 39 players in the draft since 2014.  6 of those picks have made it to the NHL.  3 play for the Lightning.  3 play for the Rangers.

Since 2014, Tampa has none of its 1st rounders on its NHL roster.  Howden was their pick in 2016. He now plays for the Rangers and has 23 career points.

Deangelo was their 1st pick in 2014, also plays for the Rangers, and has 43 career points (so in 5 seasons he has roughly the same number of points as Dahlin).

The only player picked by Tampa in the 2nd round since 2014 who has played in the NHL is Libor Hajek (2016) who also now plays for the Rangers.  He's played 5 NHL games.

Tampa's saving grace in the draft since 2014 is the 3rd round, where they drafted Point (2014) and Cirelli (2015).

They added Joseph in the 4th round in 2015 (26 career points).

None of their draft picks from 2017 or 2018 have hit the NHL yet.

So since 2014, 5 drafts (not counting 2019) have added Point, Cirelli, and Joseph to the Lightning roster.  Now one of those players is excellent, one is emerging, and the last might be good, but 3 players from 5 drafts is not a great percentage.

The other draftees in the NHL were sent to the Rangers to build their defense (trading projects for veterens).

So is a team who consistently misses on the first two rounds, but hits on the 3rd round good at drafting or is it lucky?

Or does it not matter, because acquiring a good player, regardless of his draft position is really the only thing that matters?

 

 

 

[Weave]

3 hours ago, jad1 said:

Ok, thanks for that. 

Tampa has picked 39 players in the draft since 2014.  6 of those picks have made it to the NHL.  3 play for the Lightning.  3 play for the Rangers.

Since 2014, Tampa has none of its 1st rounders on its NHL roster.  Howden was their pick in 2016. He now plays for the Rangers and has 23 career points.

Deangelo was their 1st pick in 2014, also plays for the Rangers, and has 43 career points (so in 5 seasons he has roughly the same number of points as Dahlin).

The only player picked by Tampa in the 2nd round since 2014 who has played in the NHL is Libor Hajek (2016) who also now plays for the Rangers.  He's played 5 NHL games.

Tampa's saving grace in the draft since 2014 is the 3rd round, where they drafted Point (2014) and Cirelli (2015).

They added Joseph in the 4th round in 2015 (26 career points).

None of their draft picks from 2017 or 2018 have hit the NHL yet.

So since 2014, 5 drafts (not counting 2019) have added Point, Cirelli, and Joseph to the Lightning roster.  Now one of those players is excellent, one is emerging, and the last might be good, but 3 players from 5 drafts is not a great percentage.

The other draftees in the NHL were sent to the Rangers to build their defense (trading projects for veterens).

So is a team who consistently misses on the first two rounds, but hits on the 3rd round good at drafting or is it lucky?

Or does it not matter, because acquiring a good player, regardless of his draft position is really the only thing that matters?

 

 

 

The sound of boom.

[WildCard]

 

[That Aud Smell]

any chance this thread's title can get a little more descriptive?

[Marvin]

4 hours ago, WildCard said:

 

In view of the above, please tell me I am interpreting this interview wrong:

https://wgr550.radio.com/media/audio-channel/06-26-paul-hamilton-howard-and-jeremy-0

1:20-3:41

1:20 - Girgensons and Larsson get QO.

1:35-50 - PHam puts Girgensons, Larsson, and Sobotka into the same bucket for value to the team and that at most 1 of them should stay.

2:48-3:03 - Q and A where PHam asserts that, unless Sobotka voluntarily leaves, that he will be on the 2019-20 roster.

3:10-25 - PHam says that "they" (the Sabres' management) don't think Sobokta is as bad as we do.

5:05 - PHam seems to assert that Tage Thompson will be on the 2019-20 roster.

If I am interpreting this properly and PHam has the pulse of management, that means that we can look forward to another season with the two worst players in the league being gifted roster spots.

 

Me with this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left side.

[Broken Ankles]

23 hours ago, jad1 said:

Ok, thanks for that. 

Tampa has picked 39 players in the draft since 2014.  6 of those picks have made it to the NHL.  3 play for the Lightning.  3 play for the Rangers.

Since 2014, Tampa has none of its 1st rounders on its NHL roster.  Howden was their pick in 2016. He now plays for the Rangers and has 23 career points.

Deangelo was their 1st pick in 2014, also plays for the Rangers, and has 43 career points (so in 5 seasons he has roughly the same number of points as Dahlin).

The only player picked by Tampa in the 2nd round since 2014 who has played in the NHL is Libor Hajek (2016) who also now plays for the Rangers.  He's played 5 NHL games.

Tampa's saving grace in the draft since 2014 is the 3rd round, where they drafted Point (2014) and Cirelli (2015).

They added Joseph in the 4th round in 2015 (26 career points).

None of their draft picks from 2017 or 2018 have hit the NHL yet.

So since 2014, 5 drafts (not counting 2019) have added Point, Cirelli, and Joseph to the Lightning roster.  Now one of those players is excellent, one is emerging, and the last might be good, but 3 players from 5 drafts is not a great percentage.

 The other draftees in the NHL were sent to the Rangers to build their defense (trading projects for veterens).

So is a team who consistently misses on the first two rounds, but hits on the 3rd round good at drafting or is it lucky?

Or does it not matter, because acquiring a good player, regardless of his draft position is really the only thing that matters?

 

 

 

The bold is important.  And TB certainly isn't a Presidents trophy team without Pointe, Cirelli and others.   Evidence of the contrary is the Sabres who have not hit on anything outside round three in years.  Fingers crossed for Olofsson.

  Your analysis of draft years only goes back to 2104.  If you go back the 6 years prior you will see many more picks that contribute or were traded for players that did.    It just takes time for these players to mature and carry a team.  Especially a goalie.   And Two of their 1st round picks were traded for contributors like JT Miller,  Ryan McDonagh, and Bradon Coburn (2015).  Cal Foote also looks like a good prospect.  So if you remove the those two selections, and consider their picks are outside the top 20 since their ascension in 2014 to an elite level in the standings most years, not too bad.   

*Please note  - the next statement is not intended to redirect this thread toward Ryan O'Reilly.   

Another factor is the GM needs to win more trades than he loses.  Trading Cory Conacher for Ben Bishop is a win.  And then turning that player 4 years later into Eric Cernak is yet another win.  Draft, develop and win trades. 

[jad1]

19 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

The bold is important.  And TB certainly isn't a Presidents trophy team without Pointe, Cirelli and others.   Evidence of the contrary is the Sabres who have not hit on anything outside round three in years.  Fingers crossed for Olofsson.

  Your analysis of draft years only goes back to 2104.  If you go back the 6 years prior you will see many more picks that contribute or were traded for players that did.    It just takes time for these players to mature and carry a team.  Especially a goalie.   And Two of their 1st round picks were traded for contributors like JT Miller,  Ryan McDonagh, and Bradon Coburn (2015).  Cal Foote also looks like a good prospect.  So if you remove the those two selections, and consider their picks are outside the top 20 since their ascension in 2014 to an elite level in the standings most years, not too bad.   

*Please note  - the next statement is not intended to redirect this thread toward Ryan O'Reilly.   

Another factor is the GM needs to win more trades than he loses.  Trading Cory Conacher for Ben Bishop is a win.  And then turning that player 4 years later into Eric Cernak is yet another win.  Draft, develop and win trades. 

Sure, if you go back before 2014 there's more of the story to be told, but the discussion I was involved in set the parameter to 2014 and the following years.

Aside from that parameter, I agree with what you write.  There are multiple ways to acquire talent and a good GM takes advantage of all those methods. 

 

 

 

 

 

[sabresparaavida]

8 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

any chance this thread's title can get a little more descriptive?

I meant for it to be 2020-2021 lineup, but I messed up on that, and I'm not sure how to change the title.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Just now, sabresparaavida said:

I meant for it to be 2020-2021 lineup, but I messed up on that, and I'm not sure how to change the title.

If you go to your opening post and click on the edit button you will be able to edit the title too.

This is a public service announcement ... with guitar ... ?

[sabresparaavida]

7 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

If you go to your opening post and click on the edit button you will be able to edit the title too.

This is a public service announcement ... with guitar ... ?

Alright, but before I change it, what should I change it to? I'm not so sure the thread really is about the 2020-2021 lineup anymore.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

14 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

Alright, but before I change it, what should I change it to? I'm not so sure the thread really is about the 2020-2021 lineup anymore.

Oh, I don't know.  I just realized that 20-21 is not even this coming season, it's 2 years out.

How about ... Everything about the 2020-21 Buffalo Sabres.  Will they be any good by then?

[sabresparaavida]

3 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

Oh, I don't know.  I just realized that 20-21 is not even this coming season, it's 2 years out.

How about ... Everything about the 2020-21 Buffalo Sabres.  Will they be any good by then?

Sounds good to me.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Fantastic edit, but I was just horsing around.  Some may think the new title is too long.

[sabresparaavida]

1 minute ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

Fantastic edit, but I was just horsing around.  Some may think the new title is too long.

I'll leave it until someone starts complaining 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Comparing Buffalo's situation to TB's is kind of silly.  Buffalo is in rebuild mode and other then 4 top picks has almost nothing to show for their efforts.  If you want to go back to 2013 and add 8th overall Risto go ahead.

TB's rebuild started in 2008 when they drafted Stamkos.  Their GM since 2014 has really been using their picks and prospects to supplement their mature roster or as trade fodder to fill holes.  

Last season TB finished with 11 of their own draftees on the roster plus 2 undrafted free agents they signed; a 12th draftee was traded at the deadline.  In fact their top 6 scorers and top goaltender were all home grown and include the 2 undrafted players..  In addition they traded an extra forward (Drouin) for a top D in Sergachev.   Of these 11 draftees, 7 were drafted in the second rd or later including their No 1 and No 3 top scorers in Kucherov (2nd rd) and Point (3rd)

We are slowly getting there, but not yet.  4 of our top 5 are homegrown, including 2 D and all are top 8 picks.  We also have 2 undrafted FAs but they aren't in key roles and 4 other recent draftees, but only 2 2nd or later picks in McCabe and backup goalie Ullmark.  

 

[PerreaultForever]

At this point it certainly seems like the plan is to develop our own. The future of this team depends on all the Finns and Swedes and other Europeans in the prospect pool. It's too early to tell on most of them but unless we add talent in free agency next year will indeed be another write off and then MAYBE the year after might see an upswing. The talent currently on the roster certainly has absolutely zero chance. 

[dudacek]

Can we realistically expect Dahlin and Mittelstadt to be putting up 60 points in this, their third year?

How many of Olofsson, Asplund Thompson etc will be useful NHLers?

[WildCard]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Can we realistically expect Dahlin and Mittelstadt to be putting up 60 points in this, their third year?

How many of Olofsson, Asplund Thompson etc will be useful NHLers?

1. Yes

2. Next year? 1. In a few years? 2 of them

Also, this is Mittelstadt and Dahlins' 2nd year, 3rd since drafted if you want to consider that for Casey

Edited June 27, 2019 by WildCard

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, WildCard said:

1. Yes

2. Next year? 1. In a few years? 2 of them

Also, this is Mittelstadt and Dahlins' 2nd year, 3rd since drafted if you want to consider that for Casey

This is the 20/21 thread.

 

 

 

(? I rarely pay attention to the thread I’m posting in either)

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

This is the 20/21 thread.

 

 

 

(? I rarely pay attention to the thread I’m posting in either)

Crap ?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

That's OK @dudacek, I rarely pay attention to the thread I'm reading.

[inkman]

On 6/26/2019 at 9:29 AM, WildCard said:

 

Where stats meet the eye test 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Can we realistically expect Dahlin and Mittelstadt to be putting up 60 points in this, their third year?

How many of Olofsson, Asplund Thompson etc will be useful NHLers?

I think expecting Dahlin to be a 60 point #1 D in his 3rd season is very realistic.  Mittlestadt, I'm not sure about 60 points, but I think he will be a competent #2 or #3 C putting up 40+ points and holding his own defensively.  Olofsson I have high hopes for.  I feel very confident that he can be a 20+ goal scorer for Buffalo.  Asplund, Cozens, and Borgen will be establishing themselves as NHL players around that time, who knows if they find success or struggle the first year or so.  Thompson, Nylander, and Ruotosolainen are wildcards, but its a decent bet that at least one of them is a real contributor.  Pilut I feel will be a good established contributor.  I thinks that's most of the youngsters who are near NHL ready.  Let me know if I forgot anyone, lol.