Pick #31 Ryan Johnson Defenseman

[bob_sauve28]

You can never have enough good defenseman in your system. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

It’s funny but people here say use BPA, stick to your list etc....

Then they are surprised when the Sabres under Jbot do exactly that and draft a guy that was the BPA on their list but not on the poster’s list.

I thought the Sabres needed more pure scoring and the BPA on my list was either Kaviylev or Lavoie.  Both guys were scorers, which we need, but both have some questions about their compete level. The next two on my list were Brink and Hoglander.  Both are very talented fast but small forwards.  Their size clearly worked against them and Caufield this draft. 

In this draft the defenders were also higher rated by the teams then the so called draft experts had them ranked.  Many were drafted higher, like Moritz, then the consensus list had them rated.

So when you factor in the issues with the top forwards and the scouting community liking more D then expected, is it really a surprise that a fast puck moving D  who can really defend was drafted by the Sabres?  

By the way Johnson was 38 on my list where the ranking difference between 25 to 40 was minuscule.  Not exactly a reach.  Johnson was also one of the guys that had significant upward movement in the published rankings following a great USHL playoffs.  

I’m somewhat disappointed that we didn’t grab one of the 4 forwards I mentioned because I had them ranked in tiers above the 25-40 tier.  However, I completely understand why the Sabres may have had them ranked lower.  

 

[Derrico]

That’s fair Liger but just because they prefer USHL D it does not make it a lazy pick.  They obviously are using this as a strategy.  Puck moving D are so important today.  The Montour trade shows that’s botts preference to go with mobile D.  We don’t have a ton in the system now.  

[Derrico]

Also stick around today liger.  We value your opinion of these prospects.  Just isn’t the end of the world if it’s not the guy you wanted there,

[Weave]

23 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You didn't challenge the "lazy" comment. "If it was worth value you'd be paid professionally " is one of the most obnoxious posts impo. 

At no point in this thread do I personally attack anyone yet I quoted what happened for ease of reading. I'm called obnoxious for not responding to a post in a complete enough manner. Then I am called it again for walking away from a conversation. 

I think the pick was lazy and dumb. It was lazy because it was their default to run back to the USHL and pick a defender. They've done it a few times. That's why I think it's lazy because I think it was a low risk safe option. They overvalue non chl defenders.  There were bigger rewards for teams. Maybe lazy is a poor word choice but I never got that far last night because who wants to stick around after all that? 

I think it was dumb because the draft is all about maximizing value of the pick you have. I don't think they maximized value. Again as I've said a ton, Johnson is a good prospect. 

As demonstrated by the quoted comments, my opinion of such is not wanted or welcomed. I find it interesting that I'm getting called out for "unproven statements" which is 75-90% of what goes on here. And I'm apparently "obnoxious" for calling the pick lazy and not appreciating being told my opinion is worthless. I didn't "flaunt" my rankings, I have my opinion based on them which I shared. 

So thank you for the personal attacks. Some will read this post as me yelling but I'm actually quite calm and was last night. I wasn't angry, I was disappointed. I said it multiple times that I like the player taken but would have rather taken someone else. Johnson is a fine prospect though and i've maintained that. Sadly, that got lost in the pile on. 

Enjoy the rest of the draft. I hope Buffalo takes Maxim Cajkovik or Ethan Keppen in the 3rd. 

 

One thing I do agree with regarding this post, It was low risk.  Both of the picks so far are low risk.  Given the history of draft failure, and the very real questions regarding other players around the pick, I don’t see how you can berate a low risk pick.  We all have said he absolutely has to make hay in this draft.  He knows it too.  We have high end talent in the organization.  We lack organizational depth.  It makes perfect sense to me that Jbott would rank prospects with a heavy eye towards likelihood of getting an actual NHL player out of the pick. 31 isn’t exactly ripe with high end players that make high end NHLers.  Getting a more likely sure thing is a good play.

 

Ive said before that Jbott is a risk averse GM.  This is what we are going to see.  Players that are more likely to make the team, but without the upside.  Given our depth, it might be the right medicine.

 

21 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

Or was it throw spaghetti at the wall in the NHL and through the draft and pray something sticks.

TM himself said as much. He drafts for athletisim and ceiling, not liklihood of making the roster.  He is the anti JB, high risk, high reward.

[SDS]

2 minutes ago, Weave said:

TM himself said as much. He drafts for athletisim and ceiling, not liklihood of making the roster.  He is the anti JB, high risk, high reward.

Well, technically he doesn’t draft anything anymore. Unless he tunes into the meat draft on WGR. 

[inkman]

4 minutes ago, SDS said:

Well, technically he doesn’t draft anything anymore. Unless he tunes into the meat draft on WGR. 

Bacon hands down is the number 1 ranked meat prospect. 

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

Wasn't that pretty much GMTM's draft style?  Go for athleticism and upside and hope one is a home run?

For what it's worth, my two favorite prospects in the organization were of this nature (Laaksonen, Olofsson) and one of them was indeed a seventh round pick by Murray. 

Come to think of it, almost all of my favorite Sabres prospects currently are Murray's (Olofsson, Asplund, Borgen, Guhle before he left)

Of course, this is just an illustration in how far draft results lag the actual draft.

 

[TrueBlueGED]

Why not to freak out over mid 1st round picks and beyond in a single picture:

 

Edited June 22, 2019 by TrueBlueGED

[FrenchConnection44]

It's pretty clear with both the picks that the Sabres were looking for some speed. Both can skate. They also wanted size up front which they have been sorely lacking. There's just not a lot of physicality on the front line and Cozens with his size (he'll add another 20 lbs plus over the next 3-4 years) and speed will bring that. 

And, I think in Johnson the expectation is that he won't play for Buffalo for at least another two years. He's the 3rd youngest player in the draft at only 17. In that time, they expect to see his offensive talents develop.

I was hoping for one of the top forwards as well but I think they decided to go with a kid who has raw talent and skating ability who can develop with a very high ceiling. 

Here's what Chris Peters at ESPN had to say about Johnson: 

Quote

Johnson is one of the best skating defensemen in this entire class. He's an exceptional defender who performed at his best in big games this season. But he is a pretty raw talent when it comes to ability to make plays in the offensive zone, which is why he's a little further down the board. In faster-paced games, he focuses a lot more on defending, and I don't know that he has the offensive sense to make effective plays up ice. Still, the feet and defensive sense are so strong that he might be the most intriguing second-round-graded player on my board, and I wouldn't pick on a team that grabs him earlier. 

 

[French Collection]

I watched the Scouching report.

Not a "sexy" pick, but definitely a prospect that can really develop at Minnesota. Good edge work, excellent at breaking up plays. Hockey IQ is a question mark. Another guy with NHL pedigree.

mynhldraft.com had him at #31. That is go to mock draft.

I probably would have taken a forward but I'll the team some slack and follow this kid for a couple of years before forming a decision.

 

[Derrico]

14 minutes ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

 He's the 3rd youngest player in the draft at only 17. In that time, they expect to see his offensive talents develop.

 

Liger - shouldn’t you love this?  Don’t you put stock in relative age of the draftees?

[Derrico]

6 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Good edge work

 

Don’t you also put a lot into this?  Liger, I’m actually surprised you don’t love the pick.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Derrico said:

Liger - shouldn’t you love this?  Don’t you put stock in relative age of the draftees?

I like the player. I honestly do, he's got a lot potential. I think he can be a 2nd pairing defender with good instincts and speed. 

Yes age does matter and should be considered. 

4 minutes ago, Derrico said:

Don’t you also put a lot into this?  Liger, I’m actually surprised you don’t love the pick.

I like it, I just liked a couple other options more. I think that's where my issue is. He's a fine pick. 

[rakish]

This is why I keep my draft contest (45b.us). It's important to judge teams drafting, not today, but in a number of years. Many people on this board believe that the Buffalo Sabres are better at drafting than @LGR4GM, I don't, I think liger's better. One advantage that liger has is that he didn't meet the kids, he doesn't look deep, deep into their baby blue eyes and try to judge their soul. He's just answering the question Can they play hockey?

My draft board went perfect last night. I was picking Kalylev 7th if Detroit went off the board and picked Newhook, instead I get a player I was happy taking 7 at 31, and will likely get a player I was happy taking 31 at 66 or 68, I forget.

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, rakish said:

This is why I keep my draft contest (45b.us). It's important to judge teams drafting, not today, but in a number of years. Many people on this board believe that the Buffalo Sabres are better at drafting than @LGR4GM, I don't, I think liger's better. One advantage that liger has is that he didn't meet the kids, he doesn't look deep, deep into their baby blue eyes and try to judge their soul. He's just answering the question Can they play hockey?

My draft board went perfect last night. I was picking Kalylev 7th if Detroit went off the board and picked Newhook, instead I get a player I was happy taking 7 at 31, and will likely get a player I was happy taking 31 at 66 or 68, I forget.

I wouldn't say that. I have Lavioe too high and some inconsistencies. 

Fun fact, 2 years running the Sabres have taken the defender I have ranked at their pick. I think I had Samuelsson at 32 and I had Johnson at 31 so that's fun. 

[spndnchz]

Jfc wtf?

[SDS]

3 minutes ago, spndnchz said:

Jfc wtf?

Sounds serious. 

[rakish]

1 hour ago, SDS said:

Sounds serious. 

Ok, the second deep was over the top, trying to be funny.

That said, collective scouting doesn't work. You can spend an hour with CSS for the past 20 years (find at thedraftanalyst.com), and look at who the collective scouting would have picked. The results are very very bad (The second very there is a callback, in standup parlance). I'm trying to make  people aware that it isn't Bob McKenzie who has good results, it's Pronman and Button, despite how crazy their draft lists seem.

Why are collective scouting results bad? I got three reasons, if you really want to talk about it, but one of them is that meeting a 17 year old doesn't tell you anything about how good he's going to be as a hockey player. Do you not draft Gordy Howe because he was a butt? Someone upthread said Kalylev looks like a Boston Bruin. Aren't we all a little tired of being beat by the Boston Bruins?

[Pimlach]

The Johnson pick could be genius after his sophomore season.  Or not.  

I suspect they think he will continue to grow physically and also improve his offensive game.  Already a lot to like at age 17.  Not a lazy pick, a well calculated developmental pick. 

 

[shrader]

Did I hear Minnesota as the school he’s heading to?

[French Collection]

11 minutes ago, shrader said:

Did I hear Minnesota as the school he’s heading to?

Yes, University of Minnesota.

[DarthEbriate]

24 minutes ago, shrader said:

Did I hear Minnesota as the school he’s heading to?

Like Peter Graves.

[PotentPowerPlay21]

5 hours ago, Curtisp5286 said:

That’s actually a halfway decent comparison, even though it was meant as an insult.  Also a late 1st round pick.  I would say that Johnson is a better skater (almost elite really) and a better stick handler, but not as good of a passer compared to Pysyk.  

It's not an insult. I liked Pysyk. I just know how Buffalo completely mishandled him and then got rid of him. GM Tim Murray, the human dumpster fire, couldn't wait to trade him for Kulikov. Ryan Johnson reminds me of Pysyk. From what I have read, he may not be as good as Pysyk. Only time will tell.

My doubt is: what has Botterill done to make Sabres fans confident in the future? Trade Ryan O'Reilly (winner of the Conn Smythe and Selke trophies) for Ryan Johnson and a bag of pucks.

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, PotentPowerPlay21 said:

It's not an insult. I liked Pysyk. I just know how Buffalo completely mishandled him and then got rid of him. GM Tim Murray, the human dumpster fire, couldn't wait to trade him for Kulikov. Ryan Johnson reminds me of Pysyk. From what I have read, he may not be as good as Pysyk. Only time will tell.

My doubt is: what has Botterill done to make Sabres fans confident in the future? Trade Ryan O'Reilly (winner of the Conn Smythe and Selke trophies) for Ryan Johnson and a bag of pucks.

If you wanted to use the selection of Johnson as an opportunity to complain about the OReilly trade, I’ve no interest in participating in that.