Pick #7 Dylan Cozens (C)

[dudacek]

2020-21. 

28 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:

Next year 2019-20?  or 2020-21?

If they want to give him a few NHL games in 19-20 just to see the speed and what he needs to work on, fine, but I don't want to see him in the NHL full time until 2020-21.  He has things that he needs to work on.  I don't want him to be overwhelmed.  If the Sabres were a good, structured team, and they wanted to just slot in on the 3rd line with two other good 3rd liners and play them limited, non-harsh minutes, then that might be ok, but that is not going to be the situation next season.

 

 

[Derrico]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

2020-21. 

 

I could see his D2 year.  It didn't necessarily work out for Mitts making the team out of D2 season but Cozens is a bit more physically developed.  Reports are that he's closer to being NHL ready.  Still needs to add a bunch of weight/muscle but if he has a great year at Lethbridge and WJC over Christmas than I could see him making it next year.

I think we also have the issue of Sabres or Lethbridge in 2020/2021 do we not?  Does anyone know if he would be AHL eligible for his D2 season or NHL/CHL only.  Who knows if that impacts the decision or not.

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, Derrico said:

I could see his D2 year.  It didn't necessarily work out for Mitts making the team out of D2 season but Cozens is a bit more physically developed.  Reports are that he's closer to being NHL ready.  Still needs to add a bunch of weight/muscle but if he has a great year at Lethbridge and WJC over Christmas than I could see him making it next year.

I think we also have the issue of Sabres or Lethbridge in 2020/2021 do we not?  Does anyone know if he would be AHL eligible for his D2 season or NHL/CHL only.  Who knows if that impacts the decision or not.

2001 birthday, so 2 years in Lethbridge before he’s eligible for Rochester.

[Derrico]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

2001 birthday, so 2 years in Lethbridge before he’s eligible for Rochester.

That's why his D2 decision is so important.  Hopefully he has a nice year and is ready to go October 2020.   Otherwise he's likely going back to Lethbridge (where by this point he likely doesn't have much to prove). 

Long winded way of saying yes I believe he's in Buffalo for opening night 2020. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

2 hours ago, MattPie said:

Where did Elmer go in the draft? That guy was all over Cozens' highlight reel.

Fudd was drafted?  Awesome!!

[MattPie]

12 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

Fudd was drafted?  Awesome!!

:)

Jake Elmer was apparently an undrafted free agent, picked up by the Rangers in March:

https://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2019/3/15/18266716/report-rangers-to-sign-whl-free-agent-jake-elmer-scouting-report-lethbridge-hurricanes-dylan-cozens

Quote

There are reasons to be skeptical of Elmer’s long-term potential. He is centered by Dylan Cozens, whom some scouts are ranking as high as third overall for the 2019 NHL Draft. Suffice to say that Elmer has benefitted from Cozen’s presence. He is also a 20-year-old in a league full of teenagers and has an underwhelming prior track record; Elmer recorded just 53 points in his previous 116 WHL games coming into the 2018-2019 season. When a nondescript player suddenly starts producing points as an overager on a line with a blue-chip prospect the alarm bells start to ring.

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by MattPie

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Derrico said:

That's why his D2 decision is so important.  Hopefully he has a nice year and is ready to go October 2020.   Otherwise he's likely going back to Lethbridge (where by this point he likely doesn't have much to prove). 

Long winded way of saying yes I believe he's in Buffalo for opening night 2020. 

I'd expect him in Buffalo that season as well.  And, unless the Sabres bring in a 2C this year expect the C spine to still be underwhelming that year as well.  The FOLLOWING year however, the C spine should be one of the best as Eichel will be in his prime, Mittelstadt should look like a true 2C ( he'll likely be a 2C that 1st season Cozens is up but not necessarily a good one by then), & Cozens should be decent to good as a 3C by then.  (Basically, by '21-'22 we should see close to the C spine that should've been in Buffalo this coming season.)

Larsson will likely have been upgraded to Asplund or Davidsson by '21-'22 as well.  (Though if he is, he'll be out the door as he wouldn't be a candidate to slide to the wing to keep him as a PK specialist.  Can't think of another C who's play drops as badly as Larry's when they slide him to wing.)

[That Aud Smell]

17 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Larsson will likely have been upgraded to Asplund or Davidsson by '21-'22 as well.  (Though if he is, he'll be out the door as he wouldn't be a candidate to slide to the wing to keep him as a PK specialist.  Can't think of another C who's play drops as badly as Larry's when they slide him to wing.)

Good post. This especially had me nodding in agreement.

[millbank]

Cozens talking on the Fan590 now. Said he was at home just before draft caught a 30 pound trout my goodness ?

[dudacek]

The more I read about this kid, the more I think he was the safest pick in that large Dach/Caufield/Zegras/Podkolzin/Krebs/Boldy grouping of forwards.

He ticks all the boxes; his size, speed, skating, skill, character, work ethic, shot and IQ - with and without the puck - all range from above-average to excellent. He will be an NHL player and should land somewhere between an adequate 2nd line winger and a top 2nd-line centre.

He may have a higher floor and a lower ceiling than pretty much everyone else we could have taken. I think when we look back at this draft we will probably see a couple players chosen behind him that we should have taken and a couple others we will be glad we didn’t.

I wonder if that was a conscious part of Botterill’s thought process?

Edited June 24, 2019 by dudacek

[Derrico]

From everything I've read and watched I think you're selling him short.  He put up some pretty big numbers and looked very good at international tournaments.  That release he has on the wrist shot is not something you can easily teach.  He is also a tremendous skater with a great first step which I think translates well to the NHL.  Hockey sense seems very good too so I don't think we're looking at an Evander Kane type. 

I also have to think there may be a little untapped potential.  I admit I don't have all the research but didn't he move from the Yukon around age 12 to play in BC/Alberta?  This was basically because they don't have a program up there for him.  Most 7 or 8 year olds showing elite potential have elite coaching available in other parts of the world.  He did not.  Once he got down south and obviously in the WHL he was exposed to it but can't help but wonder what the Sabres training staff will do with him.  Maybe it's nothing, I don't know.

I think we're spoiled with Jack.  We know we have the #1 C in place already.  Any other year in which we don't have a franchise C, there would be an obsession that Cozens will be that guy.  Why not?  Pick 7 in a pretty good draft have some pretty high expectations.

[Neo]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The more I read about this kid, the more I think he was the safest pick in that large Dach/Caufield/Zegras/Podkolzin/Krebs/Boldy grouping of forwards.

He ticks all the boxes; his size, speed, skating, skill, character, work ethic, shot and IQ - with and without the puck - all range from above-average to excellent. He will be an NHL player and should land somewhere between an adequate 2nd line winger and a top 2nd-line centre.

He may have a higher floor and a lower ceiling than pretty much everyone else we could have taken. I think when we look back at this draft we will probably see a couple players chosen behind him that we should have taken and a couple others we will be glad we didn’t.

I wonder if that was a conscious part of Botterill’s thought process?

I know that’s my thought process when I’m building and I’m a long way off from complete.  Starting near zero, I’ll take ten “B” players instead of a bag of “A” through “D’s”.

When the foundation’s set and we’re humming along, that “risky, may be special” guy or gal looks better.

[Stoner]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The more I read about this kid, the more I think he was the safest pick in that large Dach/Caufield/Zegras/Podkolzin/Krebs/Boldy grouping of forwards.

He ticks all the boxes; his size, speed, skating, skill, character, work ethic, shot and IQ - with and without the puck - all range from above-average to excellent. He will be an NHL player and should land somewhere between an adequate 2nd line winger and a top 2nd-line centre.

He may have a higher floor and a lower ceiling than pretty much everyone else we could have taken. I think when we look back at this draft we will probably see a couple players chosen behind him that we should have taken and a couple others we will be glad we didn’t.

I wonder if that was a conscious part of Botterill’s thought process?

Because he's worried about his job security?

[SwampD]

2 hours ago, millbank said:

Cozens talking on the Fan590 now. Said he was at home just before draft caught a 30 pound trout my goodness ?

Man, is he going to love WNY.

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The more I read about this kid, the more I think he was the safest pick in that large Dach/Caufield/Zegras/Podkolzin/Krebs/Boldy grouping of forwards.

He ticks all the boxes; his size, speed, skating, skill, character, work ethic, shot and IQ - with and without the puck - all range from above-average to excellent. He will be an NHL player and should land somewhere between an adequate 2nd line winger and a top 2nd-line centre.

He may have a higher floor and a lower ceiling than pretty much everyone else we could have taken. I think when we look back at this draft we will probably see a couple players chosen behind him that we should have taken and a couple others we will be glad we didn’t.

I wonder if that was a conscious part of Botterill’s thought process?

Pretty sure that's intentional.

They have a 1C and they should have a 1D soon.  They have a 1LW & a 1RW.  If Luukkonnen turns into a 1G, they'll be good enough on the top end pieces.  Montour or maybe one of the prospects can be a 2D.

So, while would rather see them draft (especially in the top 10) for guys with serious top line potential; Botterill seems content with drafting around  the existing pieces unless something falls into his lap (Dahlin).

Which is part of the source for my "troublesome" comment (here or in the 31st pick thread).  This lin eup, on paper, looks good 2-3 years out & moving forward from there.  If Botterill is on a 5 year plan from his hiring, we're likely looking 1 more top 10 pick.  (And there is no evidence he's on a 5 year plan, so that comment is likely premature.  But there really isn't evidence against a 5 year plan either.  Really hoping this July shows playoffs was the 3 year plan & true contention in 5 goes with that.)

[Neo]

2 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Because he's worried about his job security?

Because when you need twenty parts to work, and the cupboard’s near bare, regularly avoiding strikeouts works better than hitting home runs from time to time.  Where would we be if Nylander was even a competent 3rd liner?  It’s a smart play, not a tentative play.

All that said recognizing that Cozens being safe was an hypothesis.  GMJB may think “he’s the one”.

 

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Derrico said:

From everything I've read and watched I think you're selling him short.  He put up some pretty big numbers and looked very good at international tournaments.  That release he has on the wrist shot is not something you can easily teach.  He is also a tremendous skater with a great first step which I think translates well to the NHL.  Hockey sense seems very good too so I don't think we're looking at an Evander Kane type. 

I also have to think there may be a little untapped potential.  I admit I don't have all the research but didn't he move from the Yukon around age 12 to play in BC/Alberta?  This was basically because they don't have a program up there for him.  Most 7 or 8 year olds showing elite potential have elite coaching available in other parts of the world.  He did not.  Once he got down south and obviously in the WHL he was exposed to it but can't help but wonder what the Sabres training staff will do with him.  Maybe it's nothing, I don't know.

I think we're spoiled with Jack.  We know we have the #1 C in place already.  Any other year in which we don't have a franchise C, there would be an obsession that Cozens will be that guy.  Why not?  Pick 7 in a pretty good draft have some pretty high expectations.

“Safest” wasn’t meant to damn him with faint praise. I see a Jeff Carter ceiling. If you’re seeing more Eric Staal, I’ll gladly be wrong.

1 minute ago, Neo said:

I know that’s my thought process when I’m building and I’m a long way off from complete.  Starting near zero, I’ll take ten “B” players instead of a bag of “A” through “D’s”.

When the foundation’s set and we’re humming along, that “risky, may be special” guy or gal looks better.

Interesting.

I was thinking more along the lines of we’ve got our elite guys already, we need to surround them with guys we can count on to be good. I also don’t think you can discount our mix either in this pick: in our current top six we have no one like this.

[Derrico]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Pretty sure that's intentional.

They have a 1C and they should have a 1D soon.  They have a 1LW & a 1RW.  If Luukkonnen turns into a 1G, they'll be good enough on the top end pieces.  Montour or maybe one of the prospects can be a 2D.

So, while would rather see them draft (especially in the top 10) for guys with serious top line potential; Botterill seems content with drafting around  the existing pieces unless something falls into his lap (Dahlin).

Which is part of the source for my "troublesome" comment (here or in the 31st pick thread).  This lin eup, on paper, looks good 2-3 years out & moving forward from there.  If Botterill is on a 5 year plan from his hiring, we're likely looking 1 more top 10 pick.  (And there is no evidence he's on a 5 year plan, so that comment is likely premature.  But there really isn't evidence against a 5 year plan either.  Really hoping this July shows playoffs was the 3 year plan & true contention in 5 goes with that.)

I don't doubt at all they are on a 5 year plan.  I still think he needs to be active this summer.  You can't miss the playoffs and win the cup in a couple years.  Get a couple of stop gaps (ala Stasney) that help us get in the playoffs today and get some valuable playoff experience for the group.  Maybe this pushes Mitts down a line which is fine.  Coz will keep developing next year in Lethbridge.  My point is, I agree with you and things look really good about 3 years from now but let's supplements the existing core to bridge us to a top 6 that includes Mitts, Cozens and possibly Olofsson.

26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He will be an NHL player and should land somewhere between an adequate 2nd line winger and a top 2nd-line centre.

This is the line I had an issue with I guess.

[Neo]

23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

“Safest” wasn’t meant to damn him with faint praise. I see a Jeff Carter ceiling. If you’re seeing more Eric Staal, I’ll gladly be wrong.

Interesting.

I was thinking more along the lines of we’ve got our elite guys already, we need to surround them with guys we can count on to be good. I also don’t think you can discount our mix either in this pick: in our current top six we have no one like this.

I was speaking more general theory, and you were drilling down to our team ...  insightfully!

Edit to add ...  Jeff Carter would be awesome.

Edited June 24, 2019 by Neo

[sabresparaavida]

32 minutes ago, Derrico said:

I don't doubt at all they are on a 5 year plan.  I still think he needs to be active this summer.  You can't miss the playoffs and win the cup in a couple years.  Get a couple of stop gaps (ala Stasney) that help us get in the playoffs today and get some valuable playoff experience for the group.  Maybe this pushes Mitts down a line which is fine.  Coz will keep developing next year in Lethbridge.  My point is, I agree with you and things look really good about 3 years from now but let's supplements the existing core to bridge us to a top 6 that includes Mitts, Cozens and possibly Olofsson.

This is the line I had an issue with I guess.

The blues in 2017-2018 and missed the playoffs. They won the cup the next year. 

[LGR4GM]

Cozens has a ceiling as high or higher than everyone picked after him and some picked b4 him. 

His only real flaw is opening his game up creatively. That's something that can and I think will come with age. 

Edited June 24, 2019 by LGR4GM
sp

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, Taro T said:

I'd expect him in Buffalo that season as well.  And, unless the Sabres bring in a 2C this year expect the C spine to still be underwhelming that year as well.  The FOLLOWING year however, the C spine should be one of the best as Eichel will be in his prime, Mittelstadt should look like a true 2C ( he'll likely be a 2C that 1st season Cozens is up but not necessarily a good one by then), & Cozens should be decent to good as a 3C by then.  (Basically, by '21-'22 we should see close to the C spine that should've been in Buffalo this coming season.)

Larsson will likely have been upgraded to Asplund or Davidsson by '21-'22 as well.  (Though if he is, he'll be out the door as he wouldn't be a candidate to slide to the wing to keep him as a PK specialist.  Can't think of another C who's play drops as badly as Larry's when they slide him to wing.)

If Botterill doesn't bring in a 2C this offseason and our C spine is underwhelming this season and next, he's not going to be around as a GM when that C corps takes off, like you say. 

Bringing in a 2C this summer is even more important now than it was before. These young Cs we have need to be brought along properly.

Edited June 24, 2019 by Thorny

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, Derrico said:

From everything I've read and watched I think you're selling him short.  He put up some pretty big numbers and looked very good at international tournaments.  That release he has on the wrist shot is not something you can easily teach.  He is also a tremendous skater with a great first step which I think translates well to the NHL.  Hockey sense seems very good too so I don't think we're looking at an Evander Kane type. 

I also have to think there may be a little untapped potential.  I admit I don't have all the research but didn't he move from the Yukon around age 12 to play in BC/Alberta?  This was basically because they don't have a program up there for him.  Most 7 or 8 year olds showing elite potential have elite coaching available in other parts of the world.  He did not.  Once he got down south and obviously in the WHL he was exposed to it but can't help but wonder what the Sabres training staff will do with him.  Maybe it's nothing, I don't know.

I think we're spoiled with Jack.  We know we have the #1 C in place already.  Any other year in which we don't have a franchise C, there would be an obsession that Cozens will be that guy.  Why not?  Pick 7 in a pretty good draft have some pretty high expectations.

The advanced stats guys seem to love him as well. He's been ranked in the top 5 consistently in those circles. Manny Elk had him as the 3rd best forward. 

[LGR4GM]

Dach v. Cozens

 

[Neo]

no one get me wrong.    i love the pick.