Sabres RFAs Receiving Qualifying Offers from the Team

[dudacek]

36 minutes ago, ... said:

Sabres were #12 in the PK.  That's Girgs and Angry Larry for the most part.

It’s actually mostly Bogosian but I think I’m the only one who noticed (or at least dared mention it)

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Bit surprised ERod wasn't offered more.

[Taro T]

40 minutes ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Bit surprised ERod wasn't offered more.

He still might/ probably will  be.  This is simply the CBA's mechanism for letting guys that aren't going to be re-signed an opportunity to hit UFA on July 1 rather than jerk around a few weeks while everybody else is already playing musical chairs.

And even those guys not receiving a qualifying offer occasionally end up back where they were (but at a significantly reduced salary).

Edited June 20, 2019 by Taro T

[SwampD]

48 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It’s actually mostly Bogosian but I think I’m the only one who noticed (or at least dared mention it)

Sinner.

Larry was pretty good, though.

[Randall Flagg]

Larsson is an actually good hockey player

he's one of six Sabres I would describe as performing their role at or above average last season

roles roles roles baby 

[WildCard]

Just now, Randall Flagg said:

Larsson is an actually good hockey player

he's one of six Sabres I would describe as performing their role at or above average last season

roles roles roles baby 

Yup. We have to have depth guys like this, and they're cheap. These were easy decisions 

[shrader]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

I don't know how much more scoring you expect from your 4th line though

Zemgus 5+13=18  /  Johan 6+8=14

Boston

Nordstrom 5+7=12  Grzelcyk 3+15=18

 

 

 

Grzelcyk is a defenseman

[Randall Flagg]

5 minutes ago, shrader said:

Grzelcyk is a defenseman

He's like really effin good too 

[pi2000]

3 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

I don't know how much more scoring you expect from your 4th line though

Zemgus 5+13=18  /  Johan 6+8=14

Boston

Nordstrom 5+7=12  Grzelcyk 3+15=18

 

 

 

The problem is these clowns can't even defend... at least not at an NHL level.   They have minor league skills with NHL experience... which puts them on the 4th line of one of he worst teams in the league.

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

The problem is these clowns can't even defend... at least not at an NHL level.   They have minor league skills with NHL experience... which puts them on the 4th line of one of he worst teams in the league.

Larsson is in the top 3% of all NHL skaters in shot suppression, including when you weight the shots based on how dangerous they are, despite having literally the most defensively skewed usage in the NHL. That is inexplicable, unless you're wrong about Larsson being able to defend at an NHL level. 

And if you're dubious of considering shot locations and shot rates, which I know you are, consider that this is after regression has been performed to isolate player impact independent of teammates, opponents, and usage. If you still want to hand-wave away an outlier as big as that as nothing at all, it's not exactly difficult to find tangible on-ice reasons for why the numbers suggest what they do. In five minutes, I just picked a random game against the best team in the league, found a Larsson shift, and watched him snuff out two rush attempts, including one by the guy who scored more points this season than any player has since Lemieux's prime, uploaded the clip to youtube, and posted it here.

 

[Thorner]

Lol damn, eye-opening. Extend Larsson.

But what about Girgs. 

[PerreaultForever]

Personally I couldn't care less about any of the qualifying offers or the ones not qualified. Bunch of rubbish. I'm fine with Larrson and Girgs staying on the roster, as well as E-Rod, but didn't Larsson say he was going to go to Europe? and none of it matters unless the guys above them on lines 2 and 3 are much much better. 

[Huckleberry]

Larsson - Zemgus - Berglund was one of the best 4th lines I seen play for the sabres in years.

Okposo and mainly Sobotka really dragged them down.

[That Aud Smell]

I appreciate the analytical love for Larsson from @Randall Flagg and others.

The guy can defend like a mother-f. But isn’t the consensus that the Sabres need more offence from their bottom 6? 

Larsson had a d-zone start rate over 80% last season (or so I heard). Is that why he had virtually no O-production?

[Huckleberry]

45 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I appreciate the analytical love for Larsson from @Randall Flagg and others.

The guy can defend like a mother-f. But isn’t the consensus that the Sabres need more offence from their bottom 6? 

Larsson had a d-zone start rate over 80% last season (or so I heard). Is that why he had virtually no O-production?

They need more offense from their middle six, starting with getting a 2nd line.   

[jsb]

7 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Larsson is an actually good hockey player

he's one of six Sabres I would describe as performing their role at or above average last season

roles roles roles baby 

Dang, happy days, the legend is back!!!

[inkman]

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Personally I couldn't care less about any of the qualifying offers or the ones not qualified. Bunch of rubbish. I'm fine with Larrson and Girgs staying on the roster, as well as E-Rod, but didn't Larsson say he was going to go to Europe? and none of it matters unless the guys above them on lines 2 and 3 are much much better. 

Larsson's Europe idea lasted 15 minutes as it was immediately refuted by actual hockey journalists rather than some rando Twitter account puporting false news. 

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

They need more offense from their middle six, starting with getting a 2nd line.   

Hmm. Middle 6, not bottom 6.

So, are we good with a 4th line of E-Rod, Zemgus, and Larsson?

[Zamboni]

15 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Hmm. Middle 6, not bottom 6.

So, are we good with a 4th line of E-Rod, Zemgus, and Larsson?

We? I’m ok with it this season. Unless JB can snag an upgrade for around the same price.

Maybe, just maybe, certain players will actually be much better under this new coach. Maybe, just maybe certain players will be better playing with different line mates. Maybe, just maybe certain players will develop further and be more effective. Sure the opposite is equally true across the board I suppose. I just can’t play the negative Nancy Debbie downer roll. It’s (to use a very overused word on here) obnoxious IMO.

[freester]

37 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Hmm. Middle 6, not bottom 6.

So, are we good with a 4th line of E-Rod, Zemgus, and Larsson?

Erod will not be on the 4th line.  It will be Okposo with Zemgus and Larsson

[That Aud Smell]

51 minutes ago, freester said:

Erod will not be on the 4th line.  It will be Okposo with Zemgus and Larsson

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

I appreciate the analytical love for Larsson from @Randall Flagg and others.

The guy can defend like a mother-f. But isn’t the consensus that the Sabres need more offence from their bottom 6? 

Larsson had a d-zone start rate over 80% last season (or so I heard). Is that why he had virtually no O-production?

And when he & Girgensons had a good 2 way RW (Berglund) they were a TRUE shutdown line.  Who cares how much THEY score if the can be matched up every home game successfully against the other team's top line.  That gives the Sabres the match up edge on paper for the other 3 lines against most anybody.

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

Hmm. Middle 6, not bottom 6.

So, are we good with a 4th line of E-Rod, Zemgus, and Larsson?

Yes.  Though I'd expect when all are healthy to see Okposo as the 3rd wheel about as often.  That line down the backstretch was almost as good with Okposo as it had been with Bergy.

And unless they bring in a shutdown 4RW (which should NOT be a priority; there's bigger fish to fry) Okposo, Rodrigues, & occasionally Wilson depending on what the opponent's top line brings should be an effective (read holding the other team in check, not lighting it up themselves) 4th line again.

[Wyldnwoody44]

@Randall Flagg

 

Is it true, hath the prodigal son returned?? 

[shrader]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

Hmm. Middle 6, not bottom 6.

So, are we good with a 4th line of E-Rod, Zemgus, and Larsson?

The thought of having an entire effective line out there with a combined price tag south of $5 million is an appealing one.  I don't know who the third piece winds up being, but the Zemgus/Larsson combo will barely top a combined $3 million.  It's pocket change at this point.

[Randall Flagg]

5 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

I appreciate the analytical love for Larsson from @Randall Flagg and others.

The guy can defend like a mother-f. But isn’t the consensus that the Sabres need more offence from their bottom 6? 

Larsson had a d-zone start rate over 80% last season (or so I heard). Is that why he had virtually no O-production?

 

5 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Larsson - Zemgus - Berglund was one of the best 4th lines I seen play for the sabres in years.

Okposo and mainly Sobotka really dragged them down.

 

4 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

They need more offense from their middle six, starting with getting a 2nd line.   

I think Huck's got it. You could ask for more scoring from your fourth line, and try to acquire it. 

I see the idea that guys like Larsson are completely replaceable, though, and I don't buy it at all. Jason has attempted to bring in a  handful of bottom six types over the last two years, with the aim of improvement, and every single attempt has failed - Nolan, Pouliot, Griffith?, Sobotka, (Berglund was good in that role but not acquired to be there and also a quitter), Elie, Josefson. Wilson up for debate. Not a single one of these guys touches Larsson, and IMO they aren't even as good as Zemgus, who is an off-brand Larsson to me. If it was trivial, why has nobody been able to add a better defensive depth type of forward since GMTM brought in Gionta? Maybe it's easy, but we've sucked at it for years and if we moved on from Larry my confidence that our checking line will be not dreadful at its job is incredibly low.

Larsson is certainly no superstar with the puck (though if you re-watch that Vancouver @ Buffalo game, there are a couple times you'll laugh out loud at how good he looks on Jack's line while Jack was nursing injury) but you can build your team so that doesn't matter. We actually did for about two weeks, and we won ten games in a row during that span.

During the streak, that line that Huck mentions, I did this little exercise with them:

Which ultimately showed that using the effective checking line that was capable of keeping the puck and pinning the other teams' top lines down in their own zone had a ripple effect on the rest of the roster, and helped lead to an 80% increase and goals and 10% increase in shot share from the non-Larsson lines over when we switched that combo out for an iteration that involved one of the two skaters we had who were probably bottom 5-10 players in the NHL this year. It's a lot easier for Jack and Skinner to come on the ice with the puck and a tired opposing D-pair than it is to come out after a hectic defensive shift, and have to expend energy to get the puck back and skate 200 feet before they have a chance to start trying to score a goal. 

Committing to a line to be used like this is a valid hockey strategy and it worked for us, but it worked because Jack-Jeff-Jason were being a legit superstar line, so scoring wasn't an issue (also the goalies were running around .960 but that's a discussion for another day). To continue to succeed with this structure going forward, you not only need your top line being like a top line and your checking line doing its job, but you need the guys between them to score regularly. Because guys that get Larsson/Zemgus' role generally aren't going to score regularly, even though they'll be invaluable bedrock that you can build winning hockey on.

5/72
6/73
3/57
7/71
6/61
2/50
4/74
3/70
These are the goals/games played for a handful of players on the list in the picture, so it's not like guys in this role around the league are popping in ginos left and right. Zemgus and Larry are the first two. Plenty of those guys got their minutes on playoff teams too, so it's viable strategy. But Toronto's Frederik Gauthier is "more successful" not because he's better at it, but because behind the Tavares line, there's a Matthews line and a Kadri line making it so they don't need 15 goals out of him, they just need 3. How did our scoring depth do with their single job of providing that scoring depth?

It's worthwhile noting that Mitts and Sheary, two of six members of that scoring depth, were 2nd and 3rd in the entire NHL in terms of offensive sheltering via zone start percentage (yah yah, it's not a great proxy for usage, but their usage was fine because Jack saw every team's defensive focus and Larry saw their best players). 

Well, starting in the beginning of that very same win streak, our middle six (defined by lines not centered by Jack Eichel or Johan Larsson) went on a ~72 combined game stretch (six guys for ~12 straight games, I don't remember the exact numbers) combining for ONE single goal. Six guys, 72 combined games, one goal, and their only job is to score. And again, this started during the win streak. So it was obvious that if Jack or the goalies cooled down, we were in trouble, which is why I emailed Jason every night asking kindly to add some middle six scoring so we didn't waste away a season with a beautiful gift like a 10 game win streak. But I digress. The 2nd/3rd lines didn't do their jobs and I have charts showing just how severe it was that I'll break out at some point, but for now, I just conclude by saying that you can win with a checking line that does its job, Larry has an abundance of chops to get the job done, Zemgus is perfectly fine with him as a partner in crime as long as their third isn't a bottom ten skater in the NHL, and if we choose to move on, we'll be left with a 2013-2017 era fourth line again that gets completely blown to pieces every night, kneecapping the lines above them in ways impossible to quantify. Simply because any "improvement on Larsson" we find (and I'd bet against us actually finding it) will get sucked up into the many holes we have in the middle six, leaving a checking line devoid of anything

Edited June 20, 2019 by Randall Flagg