2019-2020 Lineup

[triumph_communes]

Wilson-Rodrigues-Okposo looks like the 5th line to me. Rodrigues is who they’d keep as an extra for sure

 

Surprised Gilmour didn’t overtake Scandella. 

 

Krueger is really challenging my optimism with 2nd line Sobotka. I thought Thompson really earned it. 

Edited September 29, 2019 by triumph_communes

[freester]

Rodriguez needs to play 3 or 4th line as a starter 

[steveoath]

Yikes. 2nd row Sobotka here today again.

[Randall Flagg]

If Rodrigues, who is probably our sixth or seventh best forward, sits for Sobotka again this year, well, I don't think this team is capable of making me angry anymore rather than just numb, so it will just be funking hilarious. 

Edited September 29, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[pi2000]

I thought Sobotka looked better than Rodrigues throughout the preseason.

[SwampD]

I get a kick out of all the Sobotka and Scandella hate.

[dudacek]

The Rodrigues/Sobotka battle is an interesting (and confounding) case study in what coaches look for.

I think Vlad has been pretty reliable so far and ERod has showcased his little boy amongst men tendencies.

But history has to count for something.

In things that make more sense but still are surprising, it is really starting to look like Okposo will sit.

9 hours ago, Taro T said:

Not necessarily what I'd run, but what I expect on Thursday.

Olofsson-Eichel-Reinhart

Skinner-Johansson-Sobotka (yuck)

Vesey-Mittelstadt-Sheary

Girgensons-Larsson-Lazar

Dahlin-Miller

McCabe-Ristolainen

Scandella - Nelson

w/ Rodrigues & Okposo the spare forwards and Gilmore the spare D until Montour is good to go.

Hopefully. by the time Montour joins the lineup Sobotka's out and Rodrigues slides onto Mitts line and Sheary slides up to 2RW.  Then just bump all the RD's down 1 slot.  (And hopefully by then swap Marco &  Happy too.)

 

[Torpedo Forecheck]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The Rodrigues/Sobotka battle is an interesting (and confounding) case study in what coaches look for.

I think Vlad has been pretty reliable so far and ERod has showcased his little boy amongst men tendencies.

But history has to count for something.

In things that make more sense but still are surprising, it is really starting to look like Okposo will sit.

 

^^^This^^^

[Randall Flagg]

Sobotka's game was unchanged this preseason. He ate pucks on the boards in the offensive zone, and kicked them/passed them around to teammates. It was more successful than during the regular season in that the puck found teammates more often, because it was quite common for him to be doing this against bad players. It was not fundamentally different from how he played in the regular season last year. He still had several instances of failing to get the puck on net from prime scoring areas, especially in Toronto. He scored zero points in four preseason games, at least half of that time being spent on a "top line." He did not come within a mile of changing that stat at any point in time, against AHL players, even though he got a 67% offensive zone start rate. This characteristic of who Vlad is made him one of the 3-5 biggest offensive black holes in the league. If that's worth carrying around for 0.75 faceoff wins per game more than a replacement level Sabres faceoff-taker, and defensive zone play that sums up to being slightly worse than the average NHLer as the season drags on, by all means go for it Ralph. Normally I wouldn't hold preseason production against anyone, but when his preseason is being used to justify his presence, well, I don't see how his biggest problem is fundamentally different this preseason given all of the above.

The Sabres' offensive struggles of the last few years are not independent of their lineup and roster decisions. That's all I have to say about that. Film, stats, I've already done that with Sobotka a million times and I'm sure no one is interested in seeing it again. 

Edited September 29, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[triumph_communes]

Krueger specifically said history does not precede any of the players. That’s probably why Sobotka is on the 2nd line and Rodrigues is on the outside looking in. 

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, triumph_communes said:

Krueger specifically said history does not precede any of the players. That’s probably why Sobotka is on the 2nd line and Rodrigues is on the outside looking in. 

It's Deja Vu all over again baby 

[...]

19 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Krueger specifically said history does not precede any of the players. That’s probably why Sobotka is on the 2nd line and Rodrigues is on the outside looking in. 

What kind of history is he talking about? Ignoring historical stats is the opposite of wise.

[dudacek]

Ralph has talked about needing a defensive conscience on lines and Vlad’s usage seems to be an outgrowth of that.

How long a scoring drought will Skinner and Mojo have to have before he rethinks that? I’ve read about him being quick to switch things up when they aren’t working.

Edited September 29, 2019 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, dudacek said:

Ralph has talked about needing a defensive conscience on lines and Vlad’s usage seems to be an outgrowth of that.

How long a scoring drought will Skinner and Mojo have to have before he rethinks that?

Well, Skinner is a scoring chance machine independent of who he's with, so the reality is that we're getting primed for 82 games of "justified" Sobotka usage.

[Torpedo Forecheck]

59 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Sobotka's game was unchanged this preseason. He ate pucks on the boards in the offensive zone, and kicked them/passed them around to teammates. It was more successful than during the regular season in that the puck found teammates more often, because it was quite common for him to be doing this against bad players. It was not fundamentally different from how he played in the regular season last year. He still had several instances of failing to get the puck on net from prime scoring areas, especially in Toronto. He scored zero points in four preseason games, at least half of that time being spent on a "top line." He did not come within a mile of changing that stat at any point in time, against AHL players, even though he got a 67% offensive zone start rate. This characteristic of who Vlad is made him one of the 3-5 biggest offensive black holes in the league. If that's worth carrying around for 0.75 faceoff wins per game more than a replacement level Sabres faceoff-taker, and defensive zone play that sums up to being slightly worse than the average NHLer as the season drags on, by all means go for it Ralph. Normally I wouldn't hold preseason production against anyone, but when his preseason is being used to justify his presence, well, I don't see how his biggest problem is fundamentally different this preseason given all of the above.

The Sabres' offensive struggles of the last few years are not independent of their lineup and roster decisions. That's all I have to say about that. Film, stats, I've already done that with Sobotka a million times and I'm sure no one is interested in seeing it again. 

Good call! A very underrated aspect of coaching/managing an NHL team.

Hopefully it doesn't take Ralph 30-40 games and seeing Vlad with a goal and 3 assists to realize he doesn't belong.

[Taro T]

42 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Ralph has talked about needing a defensive conscience on lines and Vlad’s usage seems to be an outgrowth of that.

How long a scoring drought will Skinner and Mojo have to have before he rethinks that? I’ve read about him being quick to switch things up when they aren’t working.

But he doesn't actually have that on line 1, and there isn't any combo he tried this preseason that would put one out there with Eichel.  (Not going down the rabbit hole of how Olofsson has been mentioned as playing a 200' game in the A, or that Reinhart is reasonable in his own end, or Jack does actually hustle back into his own end now.)

If line 1 can get away without it, Johansson's 200' game should be enough for line 2.

Not to mention, as Randy repeats until his poor fingers can type no more, just because Sobotka is where Sabre offense goes to die, does NOT mean he's good in his own end.  He's almost average there.  So, hoping Krueger figures this out quickly, because his taking his reputation as being a ####ty player whisperer seriously will go a long way to destroying that reputation.

 

[dudacek]

This is what training camp has led me to think we will see from Ralph early in terms of player usage up front:

• Jack and Sam will be his #1 offensive duo, Marcus and Jeff his #2.
• Casey will be his 3C in a sheltered role.
• Jimmy, Conor and Victor will be his primary complementary scoring wingers, pushed by Tage and Kyle.
• Zemgus, Johan, Evan and Vlad will be his utility guys - PK, defensive consciences, situational players. Not sure of their pecking order yet.

It’s basically last year’s template, with MoJo, VO and Jimmy taking over the roles of Casey/Vlad, Pominville and Okposo/Tage, pushing the remaining four players down the depth chart and pushing Wilson/Elie/Berglund off the roster entirely.

I’m less sure with what we’re going to see on defence.

• Dahlin, Miller and Risto will be in the top four to start, with Risto getting less minutes, but still more than 20
• McCabe will likely round out the top four, with Scandella and Nelson in the last two spots.
• Gilmour will be the spare until Montour returns, which will likely push Nelson to the spare list unless he outplays Scandella.

Essentially, it’s Miller in for Beaulieu and Montour for Bogosian, with less ice time for Risto. It will be interesting to see how Bogosian and Pilut fit when they return.

The goalies will platoon, at least until one separates himself from the other. Hutton gets opening night.

The PP will be Eichel Dahlin Olofsson Reinhart Skinner backed by five of Miller Ristolainen Vesey Mittelstadt Johansson Tage

Sobotka and Scandella make the team in part for their PK ability. They will be joined be McCabe, Risto and Miller on the blueline and Girgs, Larry and ERod up front. Jack and Jimmy will get time up front too.

I think the additions (Miller, Montour, Vesey, Olofsson, Johansson) have improved the roster, but not hugely; we will have more mid-roster depth, a more mobile defence and more options to create internal competition.

If we are in the playoff race, it will be largely because of Ralph.

But his decisions so far look suspiciously like Housley’s.

Edited September 29, 2019 by dudacek

[Thorner]

8 hours ago, darksabre said:

 

Hoping it's Sheary in for Sobotka, and he'll be waived. 

Rodrigues replaces Lazar, Lazar waived. 

Elie, Asplund, Wilson sent down too, Okposo as the 13th man. 

- - - 

Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Johansson - Sheary

Vesey - Mittelstadt - Rodrigues 

Girgensons - Larsson - Thompson

(Okposo)

Dahlin - Miller 

McCabe - Ristolainen

Scandella - Jokiharju

(Gilmour, Nelson)

 

Edited September 29, 2019 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

@dudacek love the analysis, disagree on the conclusion.

Miller replacing Baloo is a huge upgrade.  Miller is top 4 on most teams and a huge upgrade to PP2.  Baloo is a marginal NHL D.

Montour is also a huge upgrade on Bogo, both speed, O and puck moving.  He is also an upgrade defensively.  These two moves alone would be a big step forward.  

Olofsson and MoJo are also huge step forward. MoJo is 20 pts better then Pominville and Olofsson 25 goal potential adds another dimension which we didn’t have last year and another legit top 6 player.  

Yesterday, our depth team competed well with a legit version of the Pens and even outskated them most of the game.  This team is close to being a playoff contender.  Any growth from Tage and Mitts and decent play from Vesey could give us 3 solid scoring lines and a legit playoff opportunity. Goaltending is still suspect and could be the Achilles heal, but Ullmark and Hutton have showed enough good play that if the D improves as I suspect this will be much less of an issue then last year.

 

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@dudacek love the analysis, disagree on the conclusion.

Miller replacing Baloo is a huge upgrade.  Miller is top 4 on most teams and a huge upgrade to PP2.  Baloo is a marginal NHL D.

Montour is also a huge upgrade on Bogo, both speed, O and puck moving.  He is also an upgrade defensively.  These two moves alone would be a big step forward.  

Olofsson and MoJo are also huge step forward. MoJo is 20 pts better then Pominville and Olofsson 25 goal potential adds another dimension which we didn’t have last year and another legit top 6 player.  

Yesterday, our depth team competed well with a legit version of the Pens and even outskated them most of the game.  This team is close to being a playoff contender.  Any growth from Tage and Mitts and decent play from Vesey could give us 3 solid scoring lines and a legit playoff opportunity. Goaltending is still suspect and could be the Achilles heal, but Ullmark and Hutton have showed enough good play that if the D improves as I suspect this will be much less of an issue then last year.

 

It's certainly a lofty expectation, 51 points would be the second best season of Mojo's career. It would be huge for them though, undoubtedly. 

Edited September 29, 2019 by Thorny

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

If we are in the playoff race, it will be largely because of Ralph.

Good post, agree with most up until that ^ line at the end. 

That's definitely possible, but if we are in the playoff race, I think it's more likely because Jack REALLY goes off, and takes a MacKinnon like step, Reinhart continues the path to becoming Mark Stone I now think he might be on, and Dahlin takes the jump expected of a player of his talents. 

Oh, and the goalies rebound. 

Edited September 29, 2019 by Thorny

[Weave]

23 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@dudacek love the analysis, disagree on the conclusion.

Miller replacing Baloo is a huge upgrade.  Miller is top 4 on most teams and a huge upgrade to PP2.  Baloo is a marginal NHL D.

Montour is also a huge upgrade on Bogo, both speed, O and puck moving.  He is also an upgrade defensively.  These two moves alone would be a big step forward.  

Olofsson and MoJo are also huge step forward. MoJo is 20 pts better then Pominville and Olofsson 25 goal potential adds another dimension which we didn’t have last year and another legit top 6 player.  

Yesterday, our depth team competed well with a legit version of the Pens and even outskated them most of the game.  This team is close to being a playoff contender.  Any growth from Tage and Mitts and decent play from Vesey could give us 3 solid scoring lines and a legit playoff opportunity. Goaltending is still suspect and could be the Achilles heal, but Ullmark and Hutton have showed enough good play that if the D improves as I suspect this will be much less of an issue then last year.

 

 

*insert long, skeptical whistle here*

20 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It's certainly a lofty expectation, 51 points would be the second best season of Mojo's career. It would be huge for them though, undoubtedly. 

And this.

[Thorner]

28 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@dudacek love the analysis, disagree on the conclusion.

Miller replacing Baloo is a huge upgrade.  Miller is top 4 on most teams and a huge upgrade to PP2.  Baloo is a marginal NHL D.

Montour is also a huge upgrade on Bogo, both speed, O and puck moving.  He is also an upgrade defensively.  These two moves alone would be a big step forward.  

Olofsson and MoJo are also huge step forward. MoJo is 20 pts better then Pominville and Olofsson 25 goal potential adds another dimension which we didn’t have last year and another legit top 6 player.  

Yesterday, our depth team competed well with a legit version of the Pens and even outskated them most of the game.  This team is close to being a playoff contender.  Any growth from Tage and Mitts and decent play from Vesey could give us 3 solid scoring lines and a legit playoff opportunity. Goaltending is still suspect and could be the Achilles heal, but Ullmark and Hutton have showed enough good play that if the D improves as I suspect this will be much less of an issue then last year.

 

I'm not sure how many times this preseason the team with guys fighting to make it outskates the team with vets going through the motions has to happen, league wide, before we have to accept this is the norm, not the exception. 

Edited September 29, 2019 by Thorny

[Taro T]

22 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I'm not sure how many times this preseason the team with guys fighting to make it outskates the team with vets going through the motions has to happen, league wide, before we have to accept this is the norm, not the exception. 

Not only were most of the Pens going through the motions yesterday, 2 of their key guys didn't finish the game.

[triumph_communes]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Hoping it's Sheary in for Sobotka, and he'll be waived. 

Rodrigues replaces Lazar, Lazar waived. 

Elie, Asplund, Wilson sent down too, Okposo as the 13th man. 

- - - 

Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Johansson - Sheary

Vesey - Mittelstadt - Rodrigues 

Girgensons - Larsson - Thompson

(Okposo)

Dahlin - Miller 

McCabe - Ristolainen

Scandella - Jokiharju

(Gilmour, Nelson)

 

I really hope you're right, except swap Scandella with Gilmour

 

Doubt you are tho