2019-2020 Lineup

[nfreeman]

42 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I'm just gonna say it: I wouldn't be shocked to see Bogo back next year on a cheap deal if his recovery takes.

 

33 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This. You can’t go too heavy on the kids and you do need an element of moose.

mcCabe/Bogo with Borgen coming

Montour/Miller with Pilut and Jokiharju coming

That should be a well-balanced corps around Dahlin next year.

I agree 100% with the bolded but there is NFW that Bogo is re-signed.  He can't stay healthy and his D zone play nose-dived last year IMHO.

 

21 minutes ago, darksabre said:

People around here will ***** a brick but I think, despite his injury plagued career, most GMs would see him as a good value add for the third pairing. Get him on a 2 x 2 deal and get him under 20 minutes a night and you're not going to worry too much about his injuries.

OTOH, if he plays 65+ games this year, I agree that someone will sign him.  But it won't be the Sabres.

[TrueBlueGED]

8 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

 

I agree 100% with the bolded but there is NFW that Bogo is re-signed.  He can't stay healthy and his D zone play nose-dived last year IMHO.

 

OTOH, if he plays 65+ games this year, I agree that someone will sign him.  But it won't be the Sabres.

Thinking we need someone to clear the net is one thing. Thinking Bogosian is the guy to do it is quite another. Bogo is melted butter soft in front of the net at least as often as he clears anyone out, to say nothing of his coverage lapses. 

[dudacek]

16 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

 

 his D zone play nose-dived last year IMHO.

I didn’t see this at all, at least prior to the all-star break. I thought it was the steadiest defence he’d played as a Sabre.

He was also the best penalty-killer on a unit that finished a solid 12th, something that didn’t get a lot of attention around here.

 (And nothing like recycling old Bogo arguments to tell us it’s time for some real hockey ?)

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Why can't those guys do that? Why shouldn't 6'3" 195lb Rasmus Dahlin learn to move guys from in front of his net? Why wouldn't the feisty Jokiharju? In todays NHL you need more from a defender than just that. Jake McCabe is probably the closest thing to a modern "shutdown" defender but the league is changing, we are going to see 5 man attacks with the defenders heavily involved in the play. It is the natural evolution of what Ruff did when he talked about defenders pitching. Now they won't just pinch and punch it back behind the net, they will take it there themselves. On the defensive side, skating and zone exits are going to be king. It is great that you disrupted the screen but tips are more deadly than point shots, so it is more important to lock down their stick than cross check them 20 times. 

Your line about cross checking 20 times brought back a memory of 70's defenseman Brian Glennie. He was effective in the NHL at moving forwards out of the way and blocking shots. He couldn't skate or handle a puck but was included on Team Canada '72 to face the Russians. Needless to say, this pylon did not see much ice time as the Russians stayed in motion and moved the puck around with dazzling passes instead of camping out in the slot.

My point is you need Dmen with as large of a toolbox as possible, but a key skill is moving the puck out with possession.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I didn’t see this at all, at least prior to the all-star break. I thought it was the steadiest defence he’d played as a Sabre.

He was also the best penalty-killer on a unit that finished a solid 12th, something that didn’t get a lot of attention around here.

 (And nothing like recycling old Bogo arguments to tell us it’s time for some real hockey ?)

The bolded is fair -- I was thinking more of the 2nd half. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 hours ago, SwampD said:

I know. It's just annoying that its all that some people (not just you) mention when talking about physicality. It's even more annoying when some people completely disregard physicality as if it plays no part in winning (not that you did that.)

This is my mindset also. You can talk all you want about "zone exits" but you have to have the puck in your possession in order to break out of your zone. How you get that possession is what the real question is. 

Risto reminds me so much of a "more physical Tyler Myers". They both chase forwards all over the ice from one side then around the back of the net to the other side and back again.  This kind of play is reason for us spending so much time in our own zone and is likely tiring by the 3rd period. Just tie the guy up and either take the puck away or have support from your other team mates(which is another topic in of itself). But, tying up your man and winning that battle takes physicality.

[sweetlou]

11 hours ago, Eleven said:

And there's the scary part.  They need McCabe and one of Bogosian or Ristolainen.

Don't for get how gritty Miller is. 

 

Reminds me of Campbell hit on Umberger...

 

Stood up to Bogo pretty well.

 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, sweetlou said:

Don't for get how gritty Miller is. 

Reminds me of Campbell hit on Umberger...

Stood up to Bogo pretty well.

Those are two different guys.  Only the first one is the guy that Buffalo acquired, Colin.  The guy fighting is Kevan, a different Miller.

[darksabre]

Maybe the best sweetlou post of all time 

[sweetlou]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Those are two different guys.  Only the first one is the guy that Buffalo acquired, Colin.  The guy fighting is Kevan, a different Miller.

Sorry just searched for Colin Miller fights...lol, my bad

here you go...

 

[Curt]

Miller as Risto’s total replacement confirmed!  

[Taro T]

15 hours ago, darksabre said:

People around here will ***** a brick but I think, despite his injury plagued career, most GMs would see him as a good value add for the third pairing. Get him on a 2 x 2 deal and get him under 20 minutes a night and you're not going to worry too much about his injuries.

Wouldn't mind having him back on that deal for 3rd pairing at all.  But somebody'll give him at least $3/ to be 2nd pairing (assuming he's reasonably healthy after this season) and with the way Botterill has built up the D depth, that seems too steep for what he'd bring here.

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, Taro T said:

Wouldn't mind having him back on that deal for 3rd pairing at all.  But somebody'll give him at least $3/ to be 2nd pairing (assuming he's reasonably healthy after this season) and with the way Botterill has built up the D depth, that seems too steep for what he'd bring here.

Do you mean as our 7th defender? Because Montour, Miller, Jokiharju make up the right side. 

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Do you mean as our 7th defender? Because Montour, Miller, Jokiharju make up the right side. 

And when Seattle takes Miller or Jokiharju who fits in on that side?

And, as mentioned, I'd expect somebody gives him a deal at $3/yr.

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And when Seattle takes Miller or Jokiharju who fits in on that side?

And, as mentioned, I'd expect somebody gives him a deal at $3/yr.

Laaksonen. I think they protect Jokiharju, Dahlin, Montour currently. 

Also I think that Botterill is preparing for that. He may re-sign Bogo and try and temp Seattle to take Bogo and a 3rd or something. Bogo at 2yrs for 3mil would put him as a prime expansion candidate for some teams. Keep in mind Seattle has a good analytics department already forming so I could be way off on Bogo as you point, Seattle might not want him. https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-seattle-analytics-director-mandrycky-on-role/c-308122326

[French Collection]

Don't forget Borgen, he could be third pairing or a number 7 D.

[GASabresIUFAN]

For those interested:

https://theathletic.com/1171596/2019/08/29/one-big-question-facing-each-defenseman-and-goalie-on-the-sabres-roster-heading-into-the-2019-20-season/

https://theathletic.com/1167542/2019/08/28/one-big-question-facing-each-forward-on-the-sabres-roster-heading-into-the-2019-20-season/

A couple of notable excerpts:

 

Quote

 

Johan Larsson —27 years old —Seventh season

Can someone get him a non-defensive zone start please?

Larsson was a pariah for many fans and perhaps that’s Phil Housley’s fault. At 5-on-5, Larsson had 16.1 percent of his faceoffs come in the offensive zone (Zemgus Girgensons had it worse than Larsson with 15.9 percent). His 463 defensive zone faceoffs were second behind defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen, who was Housley’s go-to defenseman in the D-zone. He was second behind Eichel in faceoffs won but that’s not a reason to lean so heavily on one guy in one zone. Despite all of that, he was north of 50 percent on puck possession even with being the bunker down guy. This isn’t to advocate for him as a top-six center, but maybe he could be used more effectively than trying to replace what Ryan O’Reilly brought in the faceoff circle.

 

 

Quote

 

Jimmy Vesey — 26 years old — Fourth season

Where does he fit in best?

The addition of Vesey to the roster is a good one. He’s been able to score in the NHL and he’s a skilled offensive player. Although his puck possession numbers have improved during each of his first three seasons, he wasn’t brought in for his defensive prowess. He can play the left or right wing, so that’s good. He goes to the net well, which means he could be valuable with Eichel and Skinner or with Rodrigues and potentially Sheary or Olofsson. Or maybe he helps Reinhart and Mittelstadt to free Reinhart from the net front and allow them to create. The fun part of the first few weeks of the season will be seeing where he fits best.

 

Quote

 

Tage Thompson — 21 years old — Third season

How does he evolve?

Like Mittelstadt, Thompson learned more of the ropes as a NHL player on the fly. Even though he had 41 games with St. Louis, the 65 he got with Buffalo provided a lot of hard lessons. His size and his shot were talked about often, but weren’t used effectively often enough. His adept use of the stick on defense to elude checkers is a gift, but it was in Rochester late in the season where he took another positive step. There he learned to accept that the big shot won’t always be there and that sometimes driving the net leads to success. Carrying those lessons into his third season would give Buffalo another big shot threat and a big body threat around the net they sorely lack.

 

Quote

 

Lawrence Pilut — 23 years old — Second season

Can he be the second-pair defenseman right now?

Everything Pilut did last season excited those looking for the Sabres to take a step into a more analytical age. Of defenders with over 300 5-on-5 minutes played, he trailed only Montour in CF% (53.2 to Montour’s 54.5), although Pilut had 13 more games played. He generated a lot of scoring chances but was on the ice for more goals allowed than scored. Once he’s rehabbed and recovered from offseason shoulder surgery, a full season of Montour and the addition of Miller will provide other puck movers. Funny enough, Ristolainen was one of his most productive partners. Pilut isn’t needed to be a physical force in his own end, but he is asked to be responsible. That’s something he was able to do with Rochester late last season and in the playoffs. That kind of growth should help him eventually take over on the second pair.

 

A couple of interesting Tidbits

Yerdon thinks our third pairing could be McCabe/Miller or Pilut/Ristolainen when Pilut gets healthy.

I knew our shooting % was among the worst in the NHL but these articles point our how bad.

1) Jack is only a 10% shooter for his career

2) Sheary fell from a career 13.8% to 9.5% costing him (and us ) as many as 10 goals based on shot totals

3) Skinner went from a crazy 19.3 early in the early to 4.6 for much of the 2nd half.  He also had only 268 shots which translates to barely over 1 (1.10) shot per period.  This is no where near enough.  

4) Erod is a terrible shooter. % last 3 years: 7.8, 7.7 and 5.4% last year.  No wonder Jbot wasn't offering top $.

 

[Thorner]

On 8/28/2019 at 6:47 PM, #freejame said:

Neither Montour or Miller are top pairing D men. Montour is a 3/4 and Miller is 4/5. Joker has a better chance of developing into a 2/3 than either of those two have of providing better defense than Risto at 25 minutes. 

They are if they are paired with Dahlin .

On 8/29/2019 at 8:11 AM, LGR4GM said:

It is weird to me. Eichel was called the 2nd coming and pumped up and adored. Mittelstadt last summer was given similar treatment. There was a clear bandwagon of people who believed they were going to breakout that coming season or at least be big contributors and be able to play 1c or 2c. With Dahlin, there is talk of him being maybe first pairing this year and some talk of him getting 45 points... the kid has no foreseeable ceiling. He can be 1st ballot hall of fame name on the cup and multiple Norris trophies good. I have no doubt he will be the #1 defender this season for Buffalo. it is everyone else jockeying for position behind him. 

The position of Defense just isn't as sexy.

On 8/29/2019 at 8:16 AM, LGR4GM said:

Pilut is a vital component to this team. Unless Scandella magically comes back to life under Krueger. 

It is referenced often in regards to physicality. 

I didn't say he wasn't...

On 8/29/2019 at 8:29 AM, dudacek said:

This. You can’t go too heavy on the kids and you do need an element of moose.

mcCabe/Bogo with Borgen coming

Montour/Miller with Pilut and Jokiharju coming

That should be a well-balanced corps around Dahlin next year.

If you are talking about a roll Bogo can fill...I mean, ya, sure....if the bolded is referring to this guy:

Edited August 31, 2019 by Thorny

[dudacek]

This piece reads like @Thorny‘s worst nightmare: an analytics based projection for this year that says, essentially, there’s hope but not this year Sabre fans.

https://theathletic.com/1166711/2019/08/31/2019-20-nhl-season-preview-buffalo-sabres/

80 points and a 28th place finish.

[GASabresIUFAN]

50 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This piece reads like @Thorny‘s worst nightmare: an analytics based projection for this year that says, essentially, there’s hope but not this year Sabre fans.

https://theathletic.com/1166711/2019/08/31/2019-20-nhl-season-preview-buffalo-sabres/

80 points and a 28th place finish.

I just posted a link to this in a new thread for season previews from all over the net.  

That said, here is the problem with analytics.  It's always trying to predict the future from past results.  Anyone who follows the markets knows this only has limited success.  In sports, with cap, roster, coaching and management changes plus development of prospects and kids, it's near impossible to predict, but it does make for interesting reading.  We all saw last year what this group was capable of both good and bad.  "If" "It depends" etc are all watch words for the Sabres, but we have seen time and again that sometimes teams just click and become much more then predicted by the so called experts.  I actually this is that year for the Sabres.  

[Randall Flagg]

22 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I just posted a link to this in a new thread for season previews from all over the net.  

That said, here is the problem with analytics.  It's always trying to predict the future from past results.  Anyone who follows the markets knows this only has limited success.  In sports, with cap, roster, coaching and management changes plus development of prospects and kids, it's near impossible to predict, but it does make for interesting reading.  We all saw last year what this group was capable of both good and bad.  "If" "It depends" etc are all watch words for the Sabres, but we have seen time and again that sometimes teams just click and become much more then predicted by the so called experts.  I actually this is that year for the Sabres.  

This is what happens in literally any form of hockey analysis you could possibly do, with or without numbers.. This is what GMs get paid to do. This is what we do when we talk hockey in the summer. You are either incorporating past information when you form your opinions, or you are completely guessing, and it's as simple as that. It's no more a problem for analytics than it is for ANY attempt to talk about next year's Sabres.

 

Edited August 31, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[GASabresIUFAN]

Sure, except to get the best estimates you have to have some idea what the roster will actually look like.  We have to many roster variables right now to even make an educated guess.

[Thorner]

20 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Sure, except to get the best estimates you have to have some idea what the roster will actually look like.  We have to many roster variables right now to even make an educated guess.

95% of the roster is set. The competition for the lower level spots aren't going to provide a big swing one way or the other, IMO. 

[Taro T]

16 minutes ago, Thorny said:

95% of the roster is set. The competition for the lower level spots aren't going to provide a big swing one way or the other, IMO. 

There is still a very realistic chance that there are 2 more moves.  Granted, they'd be 2nd pairing and middle 6 moves, but not sure that it can be said that 95% of the roster is set nor that any remaining moves are only going to effect the lower levels.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

95% of the roster is set. The competition for the lower level spots aren't going to provide a big swing one way or the other, IMO. 

Not even close.  There is legit competition for 6 roster spots which about or about 25% of the roster.  There is also 6 forwards slots in the top 9 where we aren’t sure about linemates and position sloting.  Add that outside Miller Montour and Dahlin we have no idea who the other 3 starting 3 D are going to be and whom everyone will be paired with. 

That isn’t close to a 95% set roster.

Edited September 1, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN