2019-2020 Lineup

[shrader]

14 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Ice time and production are never linearly related

Which is interesting given that we often see players compared using points per 60 minutes 5-on-5.  The most recent one coming to mind was the Kase kid from Anaheim coming up in trade proposals last week.

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, shrader said:

Which is interesting given that we often see players compared using points per 60 minutes 5-on-5.  The most recent one coming to mind was the Kase kid from Anaheim coming up in trade proposals last week.

There is a correlation but it is not directly linear. Linemates, opponents and such also impact performance so ice time is 1 variable but a good one to account for. 

[shrader]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

There is a correlation but it is not directly linear. Linemates, opponents and such also impact performance so ice time is 1 variable but a good one to account for. 

And let's face it, a lot of these guys with low ice time but decent scoring numbers aren't usually seeing as much ice time in a defensive role.  You give them more of that time and obviously the scoring rate decreases.

[LGR4GM]

42 minutes ago, shrader said:

And let's face it, a lot of these guys with low ice time but decent scoring numbers aren't usually seeing as much ice time in a defensive role.  You give them more of that time and obviously the scoring rate decreases.

Potentially yes. There are players though that see lower ice time and play against hard opponents. I believe Cirelli in tampa was playing against tough competition but still managed to produce (I could be wrong but I thought that was the case) . 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Potentially yes. There are players though that see lower ice time and play against hard opponents. I believe Cirelli in tampa was playing against tough competition but still managed to produce (I could be wrong but I thought that was the case) . 

Let me say straight up that I think Cirelli is a very good hockey player, way better than say, Evan Rodrigues.

But I am curious how anyone on Tampa gets tough minutes. Unless the coach is a complete moron with his lines, chances are very good that the players any Lightning player is playing with are better than the players he is playing against.

Thompson Rodrigues Sheary Ristolainen Scandella versus Killorn Cirelli Miller McDonough Cernak

You going to tell me that if Cirelli is flipped for Rodrigues in that match-up the analytics will still heavily favour Cirelli? And couldn’t this be a factor in giving Cernak better analytics than Risto?

(Not replying to your point per se, @LGR4GM, it just pushed my mind in this direction)

Edited August 27, 2019 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

Honestly couldn't say. I would guess it impacts the metrics but I could not say how. 

[Randall Flagg]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Let me say straight up that I think Cirelli is a very good hockey player, way better than say, Evan Rodrigues.

But I am curious how anyone on Tampa gets tough minutes. Unless the coach is a complete moron with his lines, chances are very good that the players any Lightning player is playing with are better than the players he is playing against.

Thompson Rodrigues Sheary Ristolainen Scandella versus Killorn Cirelli Miller McDonough Cernak

You going to tell me that if Cirelli is flipped for Rodrigues in that match-up the analytics will still heavily favour Cirelli?

(Not replying to your point per se, @LGR4GM, it just pushed my mind in this direction)

Analytics think both Cirelli and Rodrigues are good, including the analytics that use regression to isolate the player from their teammates/opponents/usage

Cirelli spent most of his time with Joseph and Killorn, and his most common opponents on various conference teams are names like Domi, Huberdeau, Ovechkin, Matthews etc.

To provide specifics to your questions

[Weave]

Found on the twitters.  Posted by a nobody, I assume.  Re: the Pominville - Vesey convo  Talking about Pominville last season.

 

H8ers gonna H8

-Played with 9 forwards > 50 minutes last season. Every single one of them had higher Corsi w/29 than w/out.

-GA>GF only with Sobotka and ERod

-Best 2-way player on the team by xG. 15th overall in the league.

 

But, please, tell me more about how horrible he was

Edited August 27, 2019 by Weave

[Taro T]

36 minutes ago, Weave said:

Found on the twitters.  Posted by a nobody, I assume.  Re: the Pominville - Vesey convo  Talking about Pominville last season.

 

H8ers gonna H8

-Played with 9 forwards > 50 minutes last season. Every single one of them had higher Corsi w/29 than w/out.

-GA>GF only with Sobotka and ERod

-Best 2-way player on the team by xG. 15th overall in the league.

 

But, please, tell me more about how horrible he was

Pominville through that 1,000th game weekend and post-1,000th game weekend wasn't even close to the same player.

But please, keep conflating the 2 segments of his season.  And also, please continue to discount a drop-off in play the previous season from the 1st 1/2 of the year to the 2nd half.

As mentioned up thread, if they can get Okposo off the roster without sacrificing other assets to make that happen, he'll willingly go to the press box when his play falls off after 10 games, AND he earns a top 12 role in TC, sure, bring him back.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

4 hours ago, WildCard said:

Can she play 2C

I don't care.  She can be on my team anytime, or is this 2C you speak of some millenial code, or other?

[dudacek]

Hot take of the day: If we don’t trade Risto for a centre, and If Casey doesn’t look significantly improved in training camp, I start the season with Sam Reinhart at 2C.

He’s the second best forward on the roster and he’s played centre most of his life. I don’t really care if he didn’t produce for 10 games two years ago with Benoit Pouliot and Seth Griffith. He is the most qualified 2C we have and it’s too important a position to plug a lesser player in there.

Edited August 27, 2019 by dudacek

[darksabre]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Hot take of the day: If we don’t trade Risto for a centre, and If Casey doesn’t look significantly improved in training camp, I start the season with Sam Reinhart at 2C.

He’s the second best forward on the roster and he’s played centre most of his life. I don’t really care if he didn’t produce for 10 games with Benoit Pouliot and Seth Griffith. He is the most qualified 2C on the roster and it’s too important a position to plug a lesser player in there.

I don't think that's a hot take at all. I think that's the only option if things play out that way.

I also think I will have no choice but to log out for a few months if that is the case, because all hell will break loose.

 

[dudacek]

Olofsson Eichel Johansson

Skinner Reinhart Kase

Vesey Mittelstadt Rodrigues Sheary

Girgensons Larsson Okposo

Dahlin Montour

Gardiner Bogosian

McCabe Miller

[Zamboni]

Oh Jason ...

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8469506

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

As mentioned up thread, if they can get Okposo off the roster without sacrificing other assets to make that happen, he'll willingly go to the press box when his play falls off after 10 games, AND he earns a top 12 role in TC, sure, bring him back.

As Botterill hasn’t moved one bad contract off the roster and there hasn’t been even a sniff of indication he’s trying to do so, I think it’s highly unlikely Okposo goes anywhere, as much as I’d like that to not be the case. 

- - - 

If Botterill enters into the season with Sam Reinhart as his 2C just fire him now. 

Trade away our 2C for nothing, fail to upgrade the position when Berglund skips town and Casey proves unready, fail to upgrade the position over the summer, again, then move Reinhart to a position he’ll be weaker, probably with the added aim of lowering the AAV on his coming contract because he swung and missed on his bridge contract decision. After saying he saw Reinhart as a winger, most likely to stay in that spot. 

And what if we don’t get a top 6 RW for Risto? We’ll just move the hole to the right side. 

Edited August 27, 2019 by Thorny

[dudacek]

52 minutes ago, Thorny said:

As Botterill hasn’t moved one bad contract off the roster and there hasn’t been even a sniff of indication he’s trying to do so, I think it’s highly unlikely Okposo goes anywhere, as much as I’d like that to not be the case. 

- - - 

If Botterill enters into the season with Sam Reinhart as his 2C just fire him now. 

Trade away our 2C for nothing, fail to upgrade the position when Berglund skips town and Casey proves unready, fail to upgrade the position over the summer, again, then move Reinhart to a position he’ll be weaker, probably with the added aim of lowering the AAV on his coming contract because he swung and missed on his bridge contract decision. After saying he saw Reinhart as a winger, most likely to stay in that spot. 

And what if we don’t get a top 6 RW for Risto? We’ll just move the hole to the right side. 

Why will Sam be weaker? Didn’t Ryan O’Reilly make similar shift from the wing at a similar point in his career and become an elite centre? Pretty sure guys like Joe Pavelski, Jeff Carter and Ryan Kesler made similar moves.

Do you think Erod or Mittelstadt will be a better 2C this year than Sam? 

[Thorner]

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Why will Sam be weaker? Didn’t Ryan O’Reilly make similar shift from the wing at a similar point in his career and become an elite centre? Pretty sure guys like Joe Pavelski, Jeff Carter and Ryan Kesler made similar moves.

Do you think Erod or Mittelstadt will be a better 2C this year than Sam? 

No, as they are significantly inferior players to Sam. 

But since Sam is a right winger, has been been playing the position for 4 years now, and has stated he prefers playing on the right, I expect a drop-off should he be moved to C. Especially when Botterill said he expects Sam at RW. Talk about a move reeking of desperation. 

No, we still need a 2C brought in from outside the organization if we want the position adequately filled. Same situation everyone agreed we were in when last season ended, nothing has changed. 

Like, I'm not moving off the position that we basically needed an entirely new collection of second line players, that everyone seemed to recognize before, due to being softened by summer optimism. Most importantly, that C. 

So far, Jason Botterill has brought in, maybe, 1 (top 6 guy) in Johansson, who in many ways is a question mark. A left winger, to boot, the least important of the C, RW, LW top 6 players we wanted to add. 

Another useless depth forward add in Vesey along the lines of a Pouliot. I give him credit for what looks to be an improved D core. Forwards look terrible, move Risto for a TRUE top 6 player or we are looking at 10 years between playoff appearances, at a minimum. A decade. 

No, do better Jason. 

Edited August 27, 2019 by Thorny

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Olofsson Eichel Johansson

Skinner Reinhart Kase

Vesey Mittelstadt Rodrigues Sheary

Girgensons Larsson Okposo

Dahlin Montour

Gardiner Bogosian

McCabe Miller

I'm not torpedoing the one good line we have, so I'm keeping Skinner with Eichel. There is no Kase on this team yet. Olofsson - Reinhart - Sheary just isn't going to get it done as a 2nd line. Or Olofsson - Reinhart - Kase for that matter. Bring in Ehlers and maybe it'll work out, but short of a Reinhart-level winger like that being brought in, it's still bring in a 2C or bust for our second line. 

But it's nearly September. It's not looking likely there will be significant names to be had. 

One thing not mentioned a lot is goaltending. Evidently Botterill didn’t feel the need to address the position after a poor showing last season. Could be another fatal flaw in his roster construction unless we see a big bounce back. 

Edited August 27, 2019 by Thorny

[Sabres Fan in NS]

EHLERS!!

?

(bring him ...)

[nfreeman]

5 hours ago, Thorny said:

I'm not torpedoing the one good line we have, so I'm keeping Skinner with Eichel. There is no Kase on this team yet. Olofsson - Reinhart - Sheary just isn't going to get it done as a 2nd line. Or Olofsson - Reinhart - Kase for that matter. Bring in Ehlers and maybe it'll work out, but short of a Reinhart-level winger like that being brought in, it's still bring in a 2C or bust for our second line. 

But it's nearly September. It's not looking likely there will be significant names to be had. 

One thing not mentioned a lot is goaltending. Evidently Botterill didn’t feel the need to address the position after a poor showing last season. Could be another fatal flaw in his roster construction unless we see a big bounce back. 

Coincidentally , I was thinking today that there is at least a 25% chance, and maybe 40%, that lousy goaltending materially hurts the Sabres this year. If that happens, it’s another huge strike against JB.

For some reason, I am less concerned about 2C.  I think I’m sorta counting on improved D play and better finishers in Vesey, Olofsson and Jojo to generate offense. 

Also, Skinner is their 2nd best forward, and I’d be fine with Reino seizing the 2C spot, but I think his game is better suited for RW. 

[LGR4GM]

Reinhart is their 2nd best forward. Skinner is their top scorer. They are different roles in my mind. 

As for goaltending, the goaltending coach being an assistant coach as well and working with the defense to help the goalies should improve the team. I don't think thats a stretch to imagine because he improved the goaltending in Carolina. 

[Sabel79]

So this just happened... one down.  

 

[Drunkard]

6 minutes ago, Sabel79 said:

So this just happened... one down.  

 

Someone needs to teach him how to spell Kyle Okposo.

[darksabre]

Interesting. That puts them under the cap and then he's gone in the summer.

That gives us 8 rostered defensemen and Pilut and Jokiharju on deck.

[Thorner]

57 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Interesting. That puts them under the cap and then he's gone in the summer.

That gives us 8 rostered defensemen and Pilut and Jokiharju on deck.

Yup. Botterill doesn't have to make any more moves if he doesn't want to. As it stands today:

Dahlin - Montour

McCabe - Ristolainen

Scandella - Miller

(Scratched - Nelson

AHL - Jokiharju

IR - Pilut, Bogosian)

---

Ideally Ristolainen is moved for a forward, and Jokiharju can swap in for Risto and probably improve the defense as a result. Once Pilut draws back in we are looking at what looks to be to be a very solid, puck-moving unit:

Dahlin - Miller

Pilut - Montour

McCabe - Jokiharju

---

...but with Pilut unlikely to start the season, I do see an opening and need for Jake Gardiner, in an ideal world. If not, we are looking at Scandella unfortunately still playing on our left side. 

Dahlin - Miller

Gardiner - Montour

McCabe - Jokiharju

That's a good looking D.