2019-2020 Lineup

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, Doctor of Philhousley said:

Yup. If Botts isn't getting a 2C in offers now, would you go as far as Mitts + Risto for a decent 2C?  

That's usually my first go-to! 

Mitts, Risto, Laaksonen for Cirelli and Palat

Stuff like that. The details don't matter - it can be whatever player/centers Jason wants to target. 

 

[Taro T]

Just now, darksabre said:

Listen, all I'm saying with Pominville is that I wouldn't be mad if he was inserted into this roster to fill a hole left by some major surgical changes that *could* happen. 

What player goes away from that forward lineup that "guy brought in in trade" doesn't fill that Pominville would fill?

If they get to the point of (please dear Lord do not let this be the move) Risto for prospects to add Gardiner, then give Wilson, Lazar, Asplund, or Smith a shot at filling that 12th forward role.  IF ALL those fail, then consider calling Jason's agent or better yet give whatever other kid in Ra-cha-cha looks good a crack at it.

[mjd1001]

22 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Personally I would like to see Okposo in camp with a new coach before I say that about him. Sobotka was bad in ST Louis and was bad here. He is at best a 4th line fringe NHL player. 

Okposo, of course, is tough to deal with regarding his contract. If you could get someone else to take it great....but if not....what do you do with him?

Here is the reality....he is above average on the power play (compared to most others on this team).  Is he great? No.   Is he a liability even strength?  Probably.  But he isn't going to drag down the first powerplay unit if he is on it...and might actually be an asset on the 2nd powerplay unit. 

So, maybe he is the guy that is in your lineup....but gets the occasional 'day off' when you want to slot in a young guy. That gives him 65-70 games played.....and when he is playing..he gets his PP time...and you try to  limit his even strength ice time to about 10 minutes per game.

[darksabre]

Just now, Taro T said:

What player goes away from that forward lineup that "guy brought in in trade" doesn't fill that Pominville would fill?

If they get to the point of (please dear Lord do not let this be the move) Risto for prospects to add Gardiner, then give Wilson, Lazar, Asplund, or Smith a shot at filling that 12th forward role.  IF ALL those fail, then consider calling Jason's agent or better yet give whatever other kid in Ra-cha-cha looks good a crack at it.

I don't want to say "anything can happen", but...anything can happen.

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I don't want to say "anything can happen", but...anything can happen.

But, in order to get there, you 1st need a Ristolainen (or other older D-man) PLUS a forward returning nothing into the forward ranks AND then have at least 4 other guys (none of who's initials are VS, btw ? ) fail at filling the TWELFTH forward slot for it to even remotely make sense to bring the corpse of Pominville back for another trip around the rink.

[dudacek]

38 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

In his second stint with Jack, that lasted ten games, he had 3 points. In the last 7 games of the first stint, he also I had 3 points, if I'm comparing the hockey viz lineup pairs to his game log correctly. I don't know a smoother way to do this, but that's 6 points in his last 17 games with Jack while being a slow-skating anchor the way he was for him in 17-18. If these numbers are wrong, they're only a game or so off, because for some reason Micah doesn't, like, label his game columns.

This team doesn't have roster spots to spend on Jason Pominville. Who I adore. But we need to be real here. Fancy stats can't see how plays that should materialize never do because of Jason's footspeed - sure, he can make the "right play" given his own circumstances, which are severely limited by the weakened physical skills/abilities, but too often that "correct decision" happening is worse for the team than the array of options an able-bodied player in his place would have at his disposal instead. When you point out that Jason basically needs to be stapled to Jack to have production, well, it's more critical than ever that Jack's wings are able to win those races and puck battles, rather than just be capable of meekly picking spots and being pragmatic. 

It really was a great run that line had in November, but I'm already having trouble shoving Vesey into a roster spot when projecting a defenseman-for-forward move, I just don't see any serious reason for bringing Pominville back to this team

And this is why Jimmy Vesey might make sense. He has the speed and the strength to do things on offence that Pommer cannot in exactly the same role. Is he so lackadaisical on defence that it renders those gains moot or worse? I don’t know. Pominville may have been diligent on defence, but he wasn’t “good” at it, for the same reasons listed above.

More importantly, Victor Olofsson is looking a helluvalot like a young Jason Pominville. Why dedicate a roster spot to  37-year-old Jason when you might have 24-year-old Jason waiting in the wings?

28 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Waiving Sobotka is a real possibility IMHO.

KO still brings more to the table than Pommer and probably enough to have an NHL roster spot (although I'd be perfectly happy with, say, CJ Smith or Asplund in that spot instead).  I don't think waiving KO this year is realistic, although I can see him getting the Moulson treatment in KO's 2nd-last and last year.

I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Sobotka’ contract ends up getting tied to a Risto trade to make the numbers work. For example, Risto and Vlad for Kase and Henrique. It’s not too big or too long to be rejected out of hand. It’s a throw-in.

Pretty sure Botterill has a plan for Sobotka, even if that plan might involve giving him what amounts to a PTO under Ralph.

Great discussion in this thread.

[jsb]

24 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

That's usually my first go-to! 

Mitts, Risto, Laaksonen for Cirelli and Palat

Stuff like that. The details don't matter - it can be whatever player/centers Jason wants to target. 

 

I like Cirelli also but I don't think I trade Mitts straight up for him now. He scored 14 more points that Casey on a powerhouse TBL team with much better wingers. He's also 2 years older that Mitts. I have to see what development steps Casey has made before I even think of that trade plus I'm not sure I'd trade Risto straight up for Palat either. I think Palat is on the back half of his career also, with Skinner, Johansson and Olofsson on the left side what would he end up being a 4th liner??

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, jsb said:

I like Cirelli also but I don't think I trade Mitts straight up for him now. He scored 14 more points that Casey on a powerhouse TBL team with much better wingers. He's also 2 years older that Mitts. I have to see what development steps Casey has made before I even think of that trade plus I'm not sure I'd trade Risto straight up for Palat either. I think Palat is on the back half of his career also, with Skinner, Johansson and Olofsson on the left side what would he end up being a 4th liner??

Like I said, I chose placeholder names that I like, but the main idea is that you can get a much better player, possibly one that is already doing what we hope Mitts can one day do (be a very good NHLer at a very important position). 

And point totals tell you absolutely nothing about the current difference between Cirelli and Mitts as NHL hockey players. There is a chasm between them right now. I believe Mitts had the most offensively sheltered minutes in the entire league, while Cirelli picked up the scraps behind Stamkos and Point lines each getting first and second dibs at anything useful offensively. He was very, very good at the other end of the ice, and was Tampa's best penalty-killing forward. 

But anyway, it's not about Cirelli. I am sure Jason has guys that he'd want to get and I hope he's not afraid to go get them.

Edited August 23, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[darksabre]

31 minutes ago, Taro T said:

But, in order to get there, you 1st need a Ristolainen (or other older D-man) PLUS a forward returning nothing into the forward ranks AND then have at least 4 other guys (none of who's initials are VS, btw ? ) fail at filling the TWELFTH forward slot for it to even remotely make sense to bring the corpse of Pominville back for another trip around the rink.

You ready to see this place go off?

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, jsb said:

I like Cirelli also but I don't think I trade Mitts straight up for him now. He scored 14 more points that Casey on a powerhouse TBL team with much better wingers. He's also 2 years older that Mitts. I have to see what development steps Casey has made before I even think of that trade plus I'm not sure I'd trade Risto straight up for Palat either. I think Palat is on the back half of his career also, with Skinner, Johansson and Olofsson on the left side what would he end up being a 4th liner??

He's only 1 year older than Mitts. Mitts is November and he is July. Mitts will be 21 in November, Cirelli just turned 22. 

[jsb]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

He's only 1 year older than Mitts. Mitts is November and he is July. Mitts will be 21 in November, Cirelli just turned 22. 

My mistake then but as my wife is a year older than me for 3 weeks, then we're equal again, I make sure at every opportunity that I'm a year younger. Having said that, I want to see what Casey shows up this year before I trade him for anyone that isn't an immediate major upgrade. Casey and Risto for Point, I'm all in, for Cirelli, I don't think so but I could be wrong.

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, jsb said:

My mistake then but as my wife is a year older than me for 3 weeks, then we're equal again, I make sure at every opportunity that I'm a year younger. Having said that, I want to see what Casey shows up this year before I trade him for anyone that isn't an immediate major upgrade. Casey and Risto for Point, I'm all in, for Cirelli, I don't think so but I could be wrong.

The thing is, you can't touch Point without sending out one of Jack or Dahlin

[Brawndo]

FWIW Kris Baker tweeted that Olofsson did play RW with MODO. His last season with them was 2015-16.

[Eleven]

I hate this thread and everything in it.  Mostly because there's a lot of hard truths in here.

[Thorner]

On 8/23/2019 at 9:11 AM, darksabre said:

This narrative about Pominville looking slow last year is one I'm tired of hearing because it's false. He should have played on Eichel's wing all season.

???

[Thorner]

On 8/23/2019 at 10:46 AM, nfreeman said:

 

I think all of the following can be true and are true:

- Pommer is better than Sobotka

- Pommer on a 1-year deal is preferable to KO on a 4-year deal

- Pommer is not good enough to be on the Sabres this year

If Vesey is in the starting 12, there's room for Jason.

[Thorner]

On 8/23/2019 at 11:09 AM, Taro T said:

Considering there is an elephant on that roster (besides the obvious lack of a 2C) which is the contract of Okposo (not even Kyle himself, his contract) there is no way they should bring back Moulson, er, Pominville as the only place he comes close to fitting on this roster after the end of October is 4RW & designated press box sitter.

I don't think people realize how bad Vesey is defensively and just how much he'd hurt that top line. I could be persuaded that, maybe, Vesey is better in a bottom 6, extremely sheltered role, but Pominville would in fact be a better option on line 1. 

Please don't ruin our top line by sticking Jimmy there. 

Edited August 24, 2019 by Thorny

[nfreeman]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

If Vesey is in the starting 12, there's room for Jason.

 

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

I don't think people realize how bad Vesey is defensively and just how much he'd hurt that top line. I could be persuaded that, maybe, Vesey is better in a bottom 6, extremely sheltered role, but Pominville would in fact be a better option on line 1. 

Please don't ruin our top line by sticking Jimmy there. 

I am pretty confident that Vesey will have a season that obliterates Pommer's last few seasons, and Pommer's effectiveness will be even more diminished this year.

We shall see.

[Thorner]

8 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

 

I am pretty confident that Vesey will have a season that obliterates Pommer's last few seasons, and Pommer's effectiveness will be even more diminished this year.

We shall see.

Jimmy Vesey isn't a good hockey player. His underlying metrics are all terrible. Pominville aside. 

Let's put aside the monstrosity that is Vesey's defensive game. Pominville has averaged 40 points over 82 the last 3 seasons. Vesey has averaged 31, with a high of 35. So you have Vesey "obliterating" Jason's numbers over the past few.

So what your line on Jimmy? 50, 60 points this year? I'll take that bet. 

Edited August 24, 2019 by Thorny

[nfreeman]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Jimmy Vesey isn't a good hockey player. His underlying metrics are all terrible. Pominville aside. 

So are Risto's, but if you were on a different team, wouldn't you rather take a shot on Risto -- a young guy, like Vesey, with a lot of tools and potential who has shown flashes on a relentlessly lousy team but has bad #fancystats (and, in Vesey's case, is in a contract year) -- than the D equivalent of a thoroughly washed-up Pommer who is probably going to retire this year because no one gives him a contract?

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

So are Risto's, but if you were on a different team, wouldn't you rather take a shot on Risto -- a young guy, like Vesey, with a lot of tools and potential who has shown flashes on a relentlessly lousy team but has bad #fancystats (and, in Vesey's case, is in a contract year) -- than the D equivalent of a thoroughly washed-up Pommer who is probably going to retire this year because no one gives him a contract?

No.

---

The Vesey trade has always been a weird one. If he puts up an unforseen career year on the backs of Skinner and Eichel, are we going to reward him with a fat contract?

Does Botterill plan on inflating his value like he did Skinner's? At least Skinner is actually good. Deal him at the deadline for futures at our annual sell-off?

Edited August 24, 2019 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

51 minutes ago, Thorny said:

No.

---

The Vesey trade has always been a weird one. If he puts up an unforseen career year on the backs of Skinner and Eichel, are we going to reward him with a fat contract?

Does Botterill plan on inflating his value like he did Skinner's? At least Skinner is actually good. Deal him at the deadline for futures at our annual sell-off?

If he plays well with Jack and Jeff and our team is improved because of it, doesn’t that give us a top 6 forward for the cost of a 3rd rd pick?  If he excels with them wouldn’t he gave earned the new deal?

[Thorner]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If he plays well with Jack and Jeff and our team is improved because of it, doesn’t that give us a top 6 forward for the cost of a 3rd rd pick?  If he excels with them wouldn’t he gave earned the new deal?

Points pay and I’m worried they won’t be representative of his true value. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Points pay and I’m worried they won’t be representative of his true value. 

Except players blossom at different times and in different situations.  William Karlsson was a 25 pt player on CBJ and they let him walk in the expansion draft for nothing.  Now the other 31 teams would love to have him after he proved himself as a top line talent in LV.  

There are many other examples in recent years.  Maybe this is Vesey’s Karlsson type opportunity.  I’d be happy if he scores 20 and gives us some depth scoring for as little as Jbot paid.  However there is a real chance he blossoms on Jack’s wing.

[steveoath]

In my mind Vesey isn't here beyond this season anyway. JB has him as cover on a contract year to, hopefully, get a good enough amount of points out of him. Next season will be when more of our young players can make the jump up. If Vesey performs well and we can get better than the 3rd round pick back at the deadline that's a decent bit of business imo.