2019-2020 Lineup

[Taro T]

40 minutes ago, dudacek said:

His forward lines in the status quo section might be the best I’ve seen with analytics to support the logic

Thank you.  ?

(Flip Sheary & Rodrigues back to the sides they typically play & those were proposed right after Johansson was signed.)

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Thank you.  ?

(Flip Sheary & Rodrigues back to the sides they typically play & those were proposed right after Johansson was signed.)

I had the same, and I think GA had something very close too. Maybe others too. 

 

Edited July 15, 2019 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

Vesey on the first line makes me want to vomit. 

Skinner - Eichel - Olofsson

Johansson - Mitts - Reinhart

Vesey - Erod - Okposo

Sheary/Zemgus - Larsson - literally do not care

[Scottysabres]

Mitts isn't ready for 2C duty, that's already been proven. I actually question why he's not in Rochester developing, to be honest.

[pi2000]

you sure Eichel has another year in him?

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Vesey on the first line makes me want to vomit. 

Skinner - Eichel - Olofsson

Johansson - Mitts - Reinhart

Vesey - Erod - Okposo

Sheary/Zemgus - Larsson - literally do not care

You would probably know better than I,  but if Vesey is so bad defensively, wouldn't he be better on the top line so maybe his offensive production off-sets the D liabilty that he poses? I would think that's not possible on a lower line that can't score as often.  Thoughts??

I really want Olofsson in that top spot and feel that Vesey's acquisition may have thrown a wrench into things.

[Drunkard]

6 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

you sure Eichel has another year in him?

Of course. His hair isn't even gray yet. No need to rush things. By that point Botterill will be on his 20th coach and the new coach will definitely need an evaluation season.

[inkman]

7 hours ago, Scottysabres said:

Mitts isn't ready for 2C duty, that's already been proven. I actually question why he's not in Rochester developing, to be honest.

It's summer?

[JohnRobertEichel]

6 hours ago, pi2000 said:

you sure Eichel has another year in him?

Being captain of the Buffalo Sabres has a similar effect on the body as being President of the United States.

[Randall Flagg]

The Mitts one was pretty horrifying.

Not that looking elderly is horrifying - but his boyish features combined with that app just didn't work 

Edited July 17, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

Probably premature given most of expect another move, but what Botterill inherited versus what he is poised to open season three with:

Eichel -> Eichel

O’Reilly -> Mittelstadt

Larsson -> Rodrigues

Girgensons -> Larson

Grant -> Sobotka

Rodrigues -> Asplund

Cal O’Reilly -> Cozens

 

Okposo -> Reinhart

Reinhart -> Vesey (LW*]

Gionta -> Okposo

Ennis -> Thompson

Bailey -> Smith (LW*]

Baptiste -> Lazar

Fasching -> Oglevie

 

Kane -> Skinner

Moulson -> Johansson 

Foligno -> Sheary

Deslauriers -> Girgensons

Carrier -> Olofsson

Nylander -> Wilson

Smith -> Elie

 

McCabe -> Dahlin

Gorges -> McCabe

Kulikov -> Scandella

Falk -> Pilut

Guhle -> Jokiharju(*RD)

 

Ristolainen -> Ristolainen

Bogosian -> Montour

Franson -> Miller

Fedun -> Bogosian

Nelson -> Nelson

 

Lehner -> Hutton

Nilsson -> Ullmark 

Ullmark -> UPL

 

Botterill has definitely focused on transforming that bunch from a heavy team to a puckmoving team. It’s very dramatic when you line the rosters up side by side.

Pretty clear we need to move an RD for a C and shift another forward to RW.

[spndnchz]

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://theathletic.com/1078201/2019/07/17/by-the-numbers-grading-every-teams-contract-efficiency/

interesting article about getting bang for your buck from the players and their contracts.  

No surprise that over paid players and underperforming players like KO, Scandella, Bogosian and Sobotka hurt the Sabres in this study.  The study does reward Jbot for being able to clean house after this season with so many expiring contracts.

Also I think his model over values Miller and under values Montour.

I do think this study hurts the Sabres and other young teams because players on ELCs are not included.   Dahlin and Mitts are huge pieces of the puzzle in Buffalo and if they perform well, the Sabres could easily outperform their ranking on this list.

Also I’d like to see where we are much closer to the start of the season. I don’t think our roster surgery is done and key players, Erod and McCabe are unsigned. Also one of the players on a “bad” contract is Risto. Assuming he is traded, what we get in return might have a profound impact on how our contract situation is viewed. We also don’t know which kids, like Jokiharju or Thompson make the team.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Cap Corner:

Once Erod’s deal is announced, (I’m going to assume about 2 mil), the Sabres will be at 13 forwards under NHL contracts, not including Lazar, Thompson, Olofsson or CJ Smith.

This group would look something like this

Skinner Eichel Vesey

Johnasson Erod Reinhart

Wilson Mitts Sheary

Girgensons Larsson Okposo

Ex: Sobotka

Cap cost: 49,050,000

If this is the group we enter the season with, I might have to jump off the Jbot bandwagon.  This isn’t close to good enough.  It’s a retread of last year with the additions of Vesey and Johansson in for Pominville and Thompson.  That is an upgrade, especially for only slightly more in cap cost, but not enough of one.

McCabe, when he signs, (I’ll assume 3 mil) would bring us to 9 NHL D not including Jokiharju or Pilut for nearly 28,793,000. 

This would create a lineup of

Dahlin Montour

McCabe Ristolainen

Scandella Miller

Hunwick Nelson

Bogosian (IR)

Goaltending - Ullmark still unsigned - I figure he’ll sign for about 1.75.  Add Hutton’s 2.75 and we are spending 4.5 on goaltending

That brings us to 82,343,000 + about 800K for Coho’s buyout.  We are about 1.7 mill over the cap, depending on Bogo’s status.  If he is shelved for the year, then nothing else needs to be done.  That said, I think Olofsson makes this team, which means someone has to go.  Wilson is the easiest.  

This rundown also makes clear that while it’s easy to make this squad cap compliant, it doesn’t feel complete.  It feels like more moves are coming in the next few weeks. 

 

 

[freester]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Cap Corner:

Once Erod’s deal is announced, (I’m going to assume about 2 mil), the Sabres will be at 13 forwards under NHL contracts, not including Lazar, Thompson, Olofsson or CJ Smith.

This group would look something like this

Skinner Eichel Vesey

Johnasson Erod Reinhart

Wilson Mitts Sheary

Girgensons Larsson Okposo

Ex: Sobotka

Cap cost: 49,050,000

If this is the group we enter the season with, I might have to jump off the Jbot bandwagon.  This isn’t close to good enough.  It’s a retread of last year with the additions of Vesey and Johansson in for Pominville and Thompson.  That is an upgrade, especially for only slightly more in cap cost, but not enough of one.

McCabe, when he signs, (I’ll assume 3 mil) would bring us to 9 NHL D not including Jokiharju or Pilut for nearly 28,793,000. 

This would create a lineup of

Dahlin Montour

McCabe Ristolainen

Scandella Miller

Hunwick Nelson

Bogosian (IR)

Goaltending - Ullmark still unsigned - I figure he’ll sign for about 1.75.  Add Hutton’s 2.75 and we are spending 4.5 on goaltending

That brings us to 82,343,000 + about 800K for Coho’s buyout.  We are about 1.7 mill over the cap, depending on Bogo’s status.  If he is shelved for the year, then nothing else needs to be done.  That said, I think Olofsson makes this team, which means someone has to go.  Wilson is the easiest.  

This rundown also makes clear that while it’s easy to make this squad cap compliant, it doesn’t feel complete.  It feels like more moves are coming in the next few weeks. 

 

 

That lineup is an indictment of Botteril.  If that is truly our lineup Botteril should be fired immediately. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

14 minutes ago, freester said:

That lineup is an indictment of Botteril.  If that is truly our lineup Botteril should be fired immediately. 

This obviously isn't going to be our lineup and that is the point of my post. We are essentially over the cap and have 24 players.  Someone needs to go by definition. Olofsson, Jokiharju and probably Thompson are making this team.  That means at least 3 players more from the current roster need to go. 

Since last year's trade deadline, Jbot has added 3 RHD (Miller, Montour and Jokiharju) despite having Bogo, Ristolainen and Nelson as holdovers.  2 of these six won't be in Buffalo soon and only Jokiharju is eligible to be sent down.  My guess is the 2 that won't be here are from the holdovers.  Nelson and Risto are the most likely to go.  Nelson can be sent down but must clear waivers.  Bogo is starting on IR and has no trade value, but will be back and Risto has the most trade value.

At forward he has added so far this off-season Johansson, Vesey, and Lazar.  Not quite the impact as the defenders, but the first two are potential upgrades over Pominville and the Thompson of 2018-19.  Right now we all agree that what is here isn't good enough.  Jbot knows this and just has to find the right moves to uses his surplus of defenders to upgrade his forwards.  

Also we have many to many bottom 6 forwards.  I expect cap casualties in the bottom 6 as well.

Edited July 24, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[freester]

I just don’t think that Bogo, Scandella and Risto have significant value. Our collection of 4th liners is not really attractive either. I don’t know how he dumps the excess baggage let alone get us a second forward line. I suspect we are headed again to have 3 top 6 players. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, freester said:

I just don’t think that Bogo, Scandella and Risto have significant value. Our collection of 4th liners is not really attractive either. I don’t know how he dumps the excess baggage let alone get us a second forward line. I suspect we are headed again to have 3 top 6 players. 

Scandella has some value and Bogo none.  Risto has value because of his offense, size and physical play.  I understand why you don't think he'll get us a 2C on his own which is why I think we'll have to take a contract back.

As to getting cap compliant, we get a 1.075 cap savings for each veteran waived.  So for guys like Nelson and Wilson their contracts would be completely erased by sending them down.  By sending Hunwick down we'd save about 50% of his contract and about 2/3rds of either Larsson or Girgensons contract if they are waived. That said, I think Jbot would get a pick for Nelson, Larsson or Girgensons in trade.  

Also Jack, Sam, Skinner and Johansson make up 4/6 of a top 6.  I think Olofsson, if given a chance, would produce well on either the 1st 2 lines.  He skates well and has a great shot.  We just need a 2C

Edited July 25, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://theathletic.com/1094362/2019/07/25/tulloch-the-nhls-top-10-regression-candidates-for-2019-20/

https://theathletic.com/1089274/2019/07/23/tulloch-the-nhls-top-10-breakout-candidates-for-2019-20/

BREAKOUTS

3. Rasmus Dahlin, LD, Buffalo Sabres

It’s pretty hard to justify putting a No. 1 overall pick on this list considering the fact most hockey fans realize how talented Dahlin is. With that being said, I think there’s a chance he gets legitimate Norris consideration in 2019-20, which would make him a “breakout” performer in my opinion.

That may seem a bit bullish, but it’s worth noting that he’s already one of the best puck-movers in the game (getting out of the defensive zone with possession 46.3 percent of the time in 2018-19, which ranked third right behind Erik Karlsson – who he’s often compared to). Defensemen typically don’t get worse from age 18 to 19; they improve dramatically, meaning we should probably expect to see Dahlin at the top of that list next season.

It’s also worth considering just how much his defense partners held him back last season. He spent most of his ice time with Zach Bogosian and Rasmus Ristolainen, who have both historically negatively impacted their team at 5-on-5.

When he finally got a chance to play alongside a strong puck-mover in Brandon Montour, Dahlin dominated play (controlling over 55 percent of the shots at even strength). He should get that opportunity again in 2019-20, with Buffalo adding a few other right-handed defensemen in Colin Miller and Henri Jokiharju, both of whom are excellent puck-movers.

If the Sabres move on from Ristolainen and make Dahlin the quarterback on the power play, would it be crazy to suggest he could put up 60 points while dominating play at even strength? I don’t think it is, which is why I’ve included him on this list. After three decades of Swedish defensemen dominating this league, Dahlin looks like he’s the next in line to be handed the torch – and that could come as early as 2019-20.

Honorable Mention

Henri Jokiharju, RD, Buffalo Sabres: I’m still having trouble trying to wrap my head around the Jokiharju for Alex Nylander trade, mainly because I’m so high on the right-handed defenseman’s talent. At age 19, he proved that he was able to move the puck well at the NHL level. When you combine that with everything else we know about the young Finn (who’s dominated at international tournaments in recent years), I think it’s a safe bet that he’s going to become a top-four defenseman in the near future – and it could happen as early as next season.

REGRESSION

Honorable Mention (some honor)

Jeff Skinner, LW, Buffalo Sabres: Part of me wonders if Jack Eichel can inflate his linemates’ production the same way we’ve seen players like Malkin and Tavares do it. The other part of me looks at the fact that Skinner has consistently underperformed his expected goals throughout his career (scoring less than we would expect based on his shot locations) and then drastically outperformed them in 2018-19. The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, but it’s a safe bet that he doesn’t approach 40 again next season.

[WildCard]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://theathletic.com/1094362/2019/07/25/tulloch-the-nhls-top-10-regression-candidates-for-2019-20/

https://theathletic.com/1089274/2019/07/23/tulloch-the-nhls-top-10-breakout-candidates-for-2019-20/

BREAKOUTS

3. Rasmus Dahlin, LD, Buffalo Sabres

It’s pretty hard to justify putting a No. 1 overall pick on this list considering the fact most hockey fans realize how talented Dahlin is. With that being said, I think there’s a chance he gets legitimate Norris consideration in 2019-20, which would make him a “breakout” performer in my opinion.

That may seem a bit bullish, but it’s worth noting that he’s already one of the best puck-movers in the game (getting out of the defensive zone with possession 46.3 percent of the time in 2018-19, which ranked third right behind Erik Karlsson – who he’s often compared to). Defensemen typically don’t get worse from age 18 to 19; they improve dramatically, meaning we should probably expect to see Dahlin at the top of that list next season.

When he finally got a chance to play alongside a strong puck-mover in Brandon Montour, Dahlin dominated play (controlling over 55 percent of the shots at even strength). He should get that opportunity again in 2019-20, with Buffalo adding a few other right-handed defensemen in Colin Miller and Henri Jokiharju, both of whom are excellent puck-movers.

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://theathletic.com/1094362/2019/07/25/tulloch-the-nhls-top-10-regression-candidates-for-2019-20/

https://theathletic.com/1089274/2019/07/23/tulloch-the-nhls-top-10-breakout-candidates-for-2019-20/

BREAKOUTS

3. Rasmus Dahlin, LD, Buffalo Sabres

---

That may seem a bit bullish, but it’s worth noting that he’s already one of the best puck-movers in the game (getting out of the defensive zone with possession 46.3 percent of the time in 2018-19, which ranked third right behind Erik Karlsson – who he’s often compared to).

When he finally got a chance to play alongside a strong puck-mover in Brandon Montour, Dahlin dominated play (controlling over 55 percent of the shots at even strength).

?

He IS that good.

[Thorner]

Saw this on TV just now and though it interesting. 

Leafs are a team that finished 7th overall last season, and they've shipped several names out. Have the Sabres moved out a single rostered player from last season yet? Even Pominville hasn't signed anywhere else yet so I wouldn't count him as totally gone. 

Edit - Alex Nylander (12 games) would be one. 

Edited July 29, 2019 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

28 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Saw this on TV just now and though it interesting. 

Leafs are a team that finished 7th overall last season, and they've shipped several names out. Have the Sabres moved out a single rostered player from last season yet? Even Pominville hasn't signed anywhere else yet so I wouldn't count him as totally gone. 

Edit - Alex Nylander (12 games) would be one. 

Last I looked Hainsey, Gardiner and Ennis haven’t signed elsewhere yet.

I’m not sure who will ultimately will be gone, but new players Miller, Johansson, Vesey and possibly Jokiharju, Olofsson and even Lazar could crack the lineup.  That’s at least 5 new players and Jbot still has roster moves or make.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Saw this on TV just now and though it interesting. 

Leafs are a team that finished 7th overall last season, and they've shipped several names out. Have the Sabres moved out a single rostered player from last season yet? Even Pominville hasn't signed anywhere else yet so I wouldn't count him as totally gone. 

Edit - Alex Nylander (12 games) would be one. 

This is the best reason to believe there is a trade coming, and maybe more than one.

Once arbitration clears, we have 24 players on the NHL roster.

And that’s not counting Pilut, Thompson, Jokiharju, and Olofsson who all have a real shot to make the team, and fringe guys with NHL experience who will have to be waived like Lazar, Gilmour, Elie and I believe Smith.

 

PS both Hainsey and Ennis will be Senators this year.

[dudacek]

Depth Chart: (with 3 LW* forced to the right side)

Skinner Eichel Reinhart ? Dahlin Ristolainen Hutton

Johansson Mittelstadt Sheary* ?McCabe Montour Ullmark

Vesey Rodrigues Okposo ? Scandella Miller Hammond

Girgensons Larsson Thompson ? Pilut Bogosian Lukkonnen

Wilson Sobotka Olofsson* ?Hunwick Jokiharju Johanssen

Elie Lazar Smith* ?Gilmour Nelson