2019-2020 Lineup

[sweetlou]

I still look for a Brassard, Boyle late addition for third line support for one year.  Let Mitts play 2C with some real talent (played most of last year with SHeary and Okposo).

With Cousins most likely coming to Buffalo in the next year or two you don't want a center on long term contract.  

I could also see them doing a minor trade to get Bonino from Nashville or get Lowry from WPG.  

My remaining off season moves and opening day line up.

Moves-

1. Sheary and Nelson to Nashville for Bonino

2. Scandella or Hunwick to Sens for 2020 6th rd pick

Forwards-

Skinner- Eichel- Olofson

Johansson- Mitts- Reinhart

Vesey- Bonino- ERod

Girgs- Larsson- Okposo

scratched- Wilson, Lazar

Defense- 

Dahlin- Miller

McCabe- Risto

Pilut- Montour

scratched- Hunwick/Scandella

LTIR- Bogo

I believe JBotts will want to wait another year on some of the young guys so he doesn't have to protect them in Seattle expansion draft.

[LGR4GM]

Mitts only played 38% of his even strength ice time with Okposo 

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://theathletic.com/1074869/2019/07/13/division-rankings/

yikes!

Right now according to Corisa Hockey’s fancy stats, the Sabres are the 2nd worst team in the Atlantic.  

No way Risto can stay.

[TrueBlueGED]

9 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

I agree that Gardiner is not as good as the #objectiveevidence (?) suggests.   If he was, the nerd running the Leafs would have prioritized his resigning.  But he didn’t.  Dubas loves analytics and knows more about them than those at evolving, or us.  Also note if their #secretsauce were anything of substance, they too would be working for Dubas.  The fact is evolving and other statisticians update the coefficients on the categories used for expected goals and WAR year over year looking to refine their proofs.  While I have learned so much this last year from those who post here as it relates to the underlying metrics (for which I’m grateful) I reject the singular argument which says look at this chart which weights shot type over shot distance or shot angle over rebounds as #objectiveevidence.   It was so refreshing to see Flagg reference going to watch video to make a decision on a player.   A GM like validation.  Bravo.  

This is a really bad argument. Dubas has a lot more to balance than whether he thinks Gardiner is good. 

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, TrueBlueGED said:

This is a really bad argument. Dubas has a lot more to balance than whether he thinks Gardiner is good. 

Wouldn't they have negative cap space if they signed Gardiner? With a Marner left to re-sign?

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://theathletic.com/1074869/2019/07/13/division-rankings/

yikes!

Right now according to Corisa Hockey’s fancy stats, the Sabres are the 2nd worst team in the Atlantic.  

No way Risto can stay.

Why the ***** would anyone put connor Sheary on line 1? That's ridiculous.

Omg this is the first athletic article I'll label bad. Sobotka isn't going to be the 4th line center. He's awful. 

And the D pairings are off too. Not a great article but it highlights the problem at 2c which we all are aware of.

[TrueBlueGED]

4 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Wouldn't they have negative cap space if they signed Gardiner? With a Marner left to re-sign?

No man, you just don't get it, the nerd didn't give him a contract so the stats are fake! 

[Neo]

Tank treads leave deep, deep, ruts ...

[Taro T]

41 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Why the ***** would anyone put connor Sheary on line 1? That's ridiculous.

Omg this is the first athletic article I'll label bad. Sobotka isn't going to be the 4th line center. He's awful. 

And the D pairings are off too. Not a great article but it highlights the problem at 2c which we all are aware of.

The only reason to do it is to see if Sheary can raise his game playing next to Eichel like he did playing next to Crosby. 

Highly doubt that is one of the 1st line combos they try.

[LGR4GM]

Might raise his game slightly but Sheary brings almost nothing else. He's a mediocre passer, he is bad defensively, and his shot is not as good as skinner. I'm realizing I want Sheary traded or on the 3rd line.

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Might raise his game slightly but Sheary brings almost nothing else. He's a mediocre passer, he is bad defensively, and his shot is not as good as skinner. I'm realizing I want Sheary traded or on the 3rd line.

I expect you'll get your wish.  (Really seeing him as either 3LW or out the door with Ristolainen in a package for a 2nd line upgrade.)

[sabresparaavida]

What about:

oloffson-eichel- Johansson 

skinner-mitts-reino 

sheary-Boyle?/ruostallinen/-Vessey

girgs-Larson-Okposo

 

Im hoping oloffson can have similar production to Skinner (~30 g) if with Jack, and Skinner and Reinhart can prop up mitts while still producing.

 

 

 

[Broken Ankles]

41 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

No man, you just don't get it, the nerd didn't give him a contract so the stats are fake! 

Not what I said at all.   The statistics are what they are.   What I said was to stop the myopic view of someone's interpretation of the statics, and which stats are valued over others.  You reject any argument if it doesn't fit into the narrative of this chart.  Black/White, right/wrong.   

With respect to the Dubas passing on Gardiner argument.  We just saw a SJ GM let go of his Captain and top 3 Forward so as to sign a D-man that got paid $11.5M, when he already had over $20M committed to the blue line.   Toronto's blue line was in much worse condition going into this off-season, and yet he was not a priority.  Is it not plausible that their exists alternative charts that suggest his play was not equal to what was displayed, and for that reason trading for Muzzin, Ceci and Barrie made more sense? 

[SABRES 0311]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://theathletic.com/1074869/2019/07/13/division-rankings/

yikes!

Right now according to Corisa Hockey’s fancy stats, the Sabres are the 2nd worst team in the Atlantic.  

No way Risto can stay.

We will prove them wrong the first half of the season.

[dudacek]

54 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

What about:

oloffson-eichel- Johansson 

skinner-mitts-reino 

sheary-Boyle?/ruostallinen/-Vessey

girgs-Larson-Okposo

 

Im hoping oloffson can have similar production to Skinner (~30 g) if with Jack, and Skinner and Reinhart can prop up mitts while still producing.

 

 

 

Rodrigues centring line 3 and that’s how it see it right now.

Edited July 13, 2019 by dudacek

[sabresparaavida]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Rodrigues centring line 3 and thanks how it see it right now.

Oops. I knew I was forgetting somebody, but for the life of me I couldn't figure out who. Yeah, I would put him there for sure.

[GASabresIUFAN]

It's interesting but Sheary is going to have a hard time making this team at LW.  Unless he moves to RW, I can easily see him traded.

LW Depth is 

Skinner, Johnasson and Olofsson 

That leaves out Vesey and Sheary unless both move to RW.

This also makes me believe that the Risto trade will be for a Center and not a RW

 

[dudacek]

I think Risto will be packaged with an NHL forward and a pick/young player for a top six forward.

[inkman]

1 hour ago, sabresparaavida said:

What about:

oloffson-eichel- Johansson 

skinner-mitts-reino 

sheary-Boyle?/ruostallinen/-Vessey

girgs-Larson-Okposo

 

Im hoping oloffson can have similar production to Skinner (~30 g) if with Jack, and Skinner and Reinhart can prop up mitts while still producing.

 

 

 

I love these lines. It really demonstrates how the depth increases dranatically when Skinner and/or Reinhart are moved off Jack's wing. If another solid forward can be added removing sheary, we might actually ice an NHL lineup. 

[Brawndo]

12 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

I agree that Gardiner is not as good as the #objectiveevidence (?) suggests.   If he was, the nerd running the Leafs would have prioritized his resigning.  But he didn’t.  Dubas loves analytics and knows more about them than those at evolving, or us.  Also note if their #secretsauce were anything of substance, they too would be working for Dubas.  The fact is evolving and other statisticians update the coefficients on the categories used for expected goals and WAR year over year looking to refine their proofs.  While I have learned so much this last year from those who post here as it relates to the underlying metrics (for which I’m grateful) I reject the singular argument which says look at this chart which weights shot type over shot distance or shot angle over rebounds as #objectiveevidence.   It was so refreshing to see Flagg reference going to watch video to make a decision on a player.   A GM like validation.  Bravo.  

Dubas in his own words on Gardiner. 

Is Jake Gardiner a possibility now?

Dubas: We still don’t have that amount of space. We love Jake. We talked about this at the year-end press conference as well. He’s been a huge, huge part of having the team turn around. There have been a few guys who have been with the team from the days when the team was… From the first two years when the team was fourth last and last, without those players and their contributions — Jake being a key, key one — the team is not where it is at now in terms of competitiveness. We would like to continue to keep that on the front burner, but until we solve Mitch’s situation, it is impossible to engage with anybody.

 

How do you see yourself sorting out the top of the defense now? Is the door still open on Jake Gardiner? Could you envision moving Muzzin to the right?

Dubas: I think we are open to anything. I think in a perfect world, with anything, you’d like to give the coach three lefts and three rights and call it a day. I know the coach would like that as well. But I think you don’t want to sacrifice too much quality, either.

I don’t think the door is closed on Jake, but he is totally unrestricted right now and could be having all types of discussions. We are very limited with what we can do. As we said, we’re making sure we’re well protected for whatever comes our way. The door’s not closed.

 

It appears that Number Nerd has prioritized Marner with the Cap Space he has remaining, which all 31 GMs would do if in Dubas’s Position. The Insiders have mentioned there is mutual interest between Gardiner and The Leafs to get something done however the Marner Situation needs to play out first. 

 

12 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Gardiner has a bad back and is a defensive liability. Totally over valued and as we have seen, many GMs agree. Two years ago the Bruins shredded him in the post season and he's never fully gotten over that. I would not touch him under any circumstances. 

We have heard of interest from Winnipeg, Montreal, Toronto and Buffalo. Two of these teams have RFA Situations that must be cleared  prior to them making any other moves. It’s entirely possible he is playing the waiting game and will not make his decision for another month or so. 

Toronto’s D Corp was not the strength of that team and still isn’t. The Sabres D Corps would be the best he has played with in years. 

The back is a concern, but a short term deal it’s less so as he can be moved to LTIR in a worse case scenario.

In terms of being a defensive liability his metrics really do not support that. Even in the Leafs Losing with Dignity Season, his metrics were not horrible.

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2019/7/12/20692175/buffalo-sabres-adding-jake-gardiner-would-still-make-sense-for-the-free-agency

[Brawndo]

2 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

Not what I said at all.   The statistics are what they are.   What I said was to stop the myopic view of someone's interpretation of the statics, and which stats are valued over others.  You reject any argument if it doesn't fit into the narrative of this chart.  Black/White, right/wrong.   

With respect to the Dubas passing on Gardiner argument.  We just saw a SJ GM let go of his Captain and top 3 Forward so as to sign a D-man that got paid $11.5M, when he already had over $20M committed to the blue line.   Toronto's blue line was in much worse condition going into this off-season, and yet he was not a priority.  Is it not plausible that their exists alternative charts that suggest his play was not equal to what was displayed, and for that reason trading for Muzzin, Ceci and Barrie made more sense? 

Ceci was a necessary “cap dump” to facilitate the moving of Zaitsev. 

And the conspiracy theorist in me believes he was acquired with the knowledge that Babcock would play him too much, thereby clearing the path for Keefe to replace Babs behind the bench. 

[Brawndo]

3 hours ago, Neo said:

Tank treads leave deep, deep, ruts ...

As anyone who has lived through a WNY Winter can attest, when potholes appear in a road the quick fix of putting asphalt in them never works in the long run. The road should be milled down and rebuild properly the first time. 

[triumph_communes]

38 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Ceci was a necessary “cap dump” to facilitate the moving of Zaitsev. 

And the conspiracy theorist in me believes he was acquired with the knowledge that Babcock would play him too much, thereby clearing the path for Keefe to replace Babs behind the bench. 

 

They didn’t have to sign Ceci though. They did

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

 

It appears that Number Nerd has prioritized Marner with the Cap Space he has remaining, which all 31 GMs would do if in Dubas’s Position. The Insiders have mentioned there is mutual interest between Gardiner and The Leafs to get something done however the Marner Situation needs to play out first. 

Of course Marner is prioritized.  Just saying that if he was a game changing offensive threat AND a solid defender, I would have expected Nylander to be moved to make room.  As far as the Dubas quote, you wouldn’t really expect a public statement about Jake from Dubas to be anything less than complimentary, would you?   Based on his chart alone and compared to other UFAs the last two years where do you expect his AAV/term to come in?

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think Risto will be packaged with an NHL forward and a pick/young player for a top six forward.

Every time I'm on my laptop I hit F5 every ten seconds waiting for this